A recent study published by three state agencies warns electricity shortages are coming to Illinois.

The shortages will start in PJM Interconnection’s regional transmission system by 2029, with the shortage hitting Illinois’ ComEd territory (which is within PJM) beginning in 2030, and then kicks in hard by 2032.

Capacity shortages in downstate Ameren’s territory are expected to begin in 2031 and escalate through 2035, when the stuff hits the fan. Ameren is in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s, or MISO’s, regional transmission network.

The report acknowledges that some fossil fuel power plants might have to remain open at least in the short-term, despite the state’s ambitious climate goals. A bill passed the legislature in October to facilitate that.

The Illinois Power Agency, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and the Illinois Commerce Commission conducted the study.

Massive increases in power needs by data centers are the “primary driver” of increased electricity demand, according to the report. Those gigantic increases were not foreseen when the state designed its landmark clean energy law in 2021 requiring net-zero carbon energy by 2045.

Coal and gas plants “are planned to retire across both [PJM and MISO] due to age, economics and emissions limits,” the new report points out, and that’s also contributing to the coming shortage.

Also problematic is the fact that new gas plant equipment takes 5-7 years to purchase and install, and the plants face additional siting and permitting barriers. Wind and solar face serious obstacles as well..

All that results in this warning from the three state agencies: “These conditions create a credible risk of regional capacity shortfalls that will impact Illinois’ future ability to import power during critical hours and may cause reliability issues in Illinois even if Illinois market zones have enough capacity to meet their [resource adequacy] requirements as determined by [PJM and MISO].”

Translation: Even if Illinois produces more power, we still might be in big trouble because other states are facing similar problems.

In the ComEd region alone, projected load growth “drives a 24% increase in resource adequacy requirements between 2025 and 2030, which contributes to growing dependence on external capacity even before the onset of an outright shortfall in 2032.”

However, the report claims, “The state can successfully navigate both near-term reliability risks and longer-term decarbonization goals through a diversified resource strategy.” That strategy includes “the continued use” of fossil fuel plants “even as their energy output declines with higher renewable penetration.”

Another study will be published in 2027. The report said that study will likely include increased renewables and battery storage but will also look at “delays and/or reductions” to emissions requirements allowed by the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, which passed in October.

That’s cutting it awful close. Some business groups, including the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, want the state to act immediately to keep existing fossil fuel plants open.

Forty years ago, Illinois had some of the highest electric utility rates in the Midwest. Then, after the state deregulated the industry, our costs became far more competitive and the state used those low rates to lure new businesses.

But then abundant supply (encouraged by deregulation) pushed rates to a point where some nuclear power plant owners couldn’t afford to operate, so Illinois had to force consumers to subsidize the plants.

Then, with the gigantic data center and resulting artificial intelligence booms, along with aging plants going offline, electricity started becoming scarce again and rates have gone up.

Unilaterally cutting off data center expansion here won’t work because the state is part of those two large regional power distribution networks. They’ll just cross the state lines and continue consuming our juice.

Maybe the AI bubble will burst. But what is clear is that Illinois laws have to be flexible enough to deal with the unexpected, and that obviously hasn’t been the case

Yes, coal plants were closing anyway because they aren’t cost competitive. Same with some gas plants. But government operates so slowly that few have confidence it can turn the ship around in time to avert a coming shortage.

Everyone is pointing to the recently passed Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act as a possible solution because it gives the state more pollution control flexibility, but even that may not be adequate if there’s not enough will at the top to make extra sure we don’t enter a crisis stage.

The governor has expressed confidence that the state can handle this. But businesspeople are rightly freaking out.

Climate change is real. But if the lights don’t go on, or the local factories close, nobody will care about excuses. They’ll just want it fixed.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.

MADISON COUNTY, Ill. — A shooting investigation shut down a stretch of Interstate 270 in Madison County during the evening rush-hour Thursday. No one was injured, Illinois State Police said.

Troopers from ISP Troop 8 responded around 5:23 p.m. to I-270 eastbound at milepost 8 near Edwardsville after a call of shots fired on the expressway.

The eastbound lanes of I-270 were closed at mile marker 8. Police said the investigation is in its early stages. More details will be posted here as they come into the FOX 2 newsroom.

Illinois energy providers are projected to face power shortfalls within the next decade as demand increases amid a transition away from fossil fuel power plants, a new report found.

The report anticipates accelerating energy demand, largely from data centers coming online. That demand, along with retirement of many coal, gas and oil units, and increasing development constraints could strain the state’s utilities and regional transmission organizations, PJM Interconnection and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, according to the report.

Plus, consumers are likely to see prices continue to rise as demand does.

The report, compiled by Illinois Power Agency, Illinois Commerce Commission and Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, is required by the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA) that Governor J.B. Pritzker signed into law in September 2021.

Per CEJA, the state is required to undergo a Resource Adequacy Study that assesses its progress toward renewable energy, green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction goals, and its current and project status of electric resource adequacy and reliability throughout the state, with proposed solutions for any shortfalls the study finds.

The different mechanisms and entities that supply energy across Illinois after the state’s deregulation and restructuring of the electricity industry in the late 1990’s and early 2000s contribute to challenges in managing resource adequacy in the future.

With different entities focusing on serving the needs of its immediate customers, the development of a plan for long-term resource adequacy needs is more difficult than if entities were working in concert with each other, according to the report.

Though Illinois zones are considered “resource adequate” today, sources of energy across Illinois are becoming increasingly constrained. Unless new capacity resources are developed, energy capacity shortfalls could be seen in Illinois as early as 2029, the report found.

Data centers are the primary driver of growth in the latest forecasts, the report states, with growth projections at levels “well above those observed in either market over the past twenty years.”

Combined with an “aging fleet of coal and gas generators,” the growth from data centers is “likely to pose significant challenges for the reliability of both systems,” the report stated.

Rapid, concentrated growth from data center development, in addition to growth from residential and commercial customers, is projected to drive growth in resource adequacy targets for both PJM and MISO between 2025 and 2030.

PJM is expected to experience a capacity shortfall beginning in 2029, with the deficit projected to widen in subsequent years if left unabated. MISO is resource adequate through 2030, though a shortfall is projected to emerge in 2031 and grow from there.

Though Illinois has long been known as an exporter of electricity, Northern Illinois will begin to import power in 2030 as the area served by Commonwealth Edison is projected to see a 24% increase in demand for power, according to the report.

MISO, which services downstate Illinois, will meet its zonal requirements through 2035 as a more modest increase of only 11% is expected between 2025 and 2030, though reliance on imports after that is possible.

In addition to the credible risks to reliability, rising demand means already rising consumer cost will continue to trend upward over the next decade.

Utility customers in Illinois reported increasing costs on their electricity bills earlier this year, with some saying their payments have doubled.

When ComEd bills increased an average of 10% in June after a capacity charge increase, PJM told NBC Chicago “higher prices reflect the fact that electricity supply is decreasing while demand is increasing.” 

The latest PJM and MISO auctions each set record high capacity prices, which will incentivize new resource development and retention of existing generation. However, the price signal is also going to increase costs for consumers, the report states.  

Sarah Moskowitz, Executive Director of Citizens Utility Board — a nonprofit that advocates for utility consumers in Illinois — said the report “makes clear the need to confront these challenges head-on and remain firmly committed to keeping the lights on at prices we can all afford.”

The report also “underscores the urgency” for the implementation of the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act (CRGA), that was passed earlier this year to address the imbalance of supply and demand for energy in Illinois and to pass additional reforms on data centers.

“Across the country, our energy systems are facing new pressures, but for years, consumer advocates have sounded the alarm about policy shortcomings from the regional power grid operators, including unacceptable delays in connecting clean and affordable resources to the power grid,” Moskowtiz said. “Illinois’ strong energy policy gives the state a blueprint to tackle our resource adequacy challenges.”

The Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition also pointed to the CRGA as an important step to addressing the projected shortfalls, however, passing “commonsense guardrails for data centers” is “the next critical step” to protecting Illinois’ ability to meet energy demands in the future.

“ICJC looks forward to working with legislative leaders and stakeholders in the spring legislative session to ensure data center developers, not Illinois consumers, pay for the disproportionate energy burden big tech is bringing to our power grid and keep in line with Illinois’ national leadership on climate by powering these facilities with clean energy,” the organization said in a statement.

Clean Energy Choice Coalition Executive Director Tom Cullerton said while the organization is in support of decarbonization and the state’s climate ambitions, “the Resource Adequacy Study makes clear that policy-driven shutdowns of reliable energy generation, before replacement resources are ready, will drive higher costs within this decade and push Illinois toward a less reliable system while putting skilled energy jobs at risk.”

As mandated by the CRGA, Illinois will begin an Integrated Resource Plan next year, an energy planning tool that will help the state account for the challenges outlined in the report and develop a strategy for moving forward. The IRP process is projected to take place throughout 2026 and 2027, according to the report.