Staff Predictions: Michigan at Illinois

The Michigan Wolverines (4-2) come off their bye this week and hit the road to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1). As we have all season long, staff writers from Maize n Brew are chiming in on this weekend’s game in this edition of the Roundtable.

And just like that, the bye week is over and we are back to football! Michigan will travel to Champaign to take on Illinois tomorrow afternoon. What are you most looking forward to seeing benefitted from the week off for the Wolverines?

Von: Health! The last time we saw the Wolverines, 10 players (not including Rod Moore who’s out for the season) were out against Washington, including edge rusher Derrick Moore, cornerback Aamir Hall, linebacker Jimmy Rolder, and offensive linemen Myles Hinton and Dominick Giudice. Michigan NEEDS to get healthy and stay that way to have any shot of a second-half comeback in the Big Ten, so hopefully most of these guys can return this weekend.

Grace: Injuries really impacted Michigan the last few games. I’m hoping they’ll be healthy heading into the back half of the season. Along with that, more time for Jack Tuttle to get comfortable at quarterback.

Nick: I’ll be looking to see if Michigan made any (the bar is low here so yes, literally any) improvements in the passing game. We saw Jack Tuttle gave the offense a little bit of a spark when he entered the Washington game, so I’ll be looking to see if him and the offense can keep their momentum going for more than a quarter and a half. This momentum will come from a more balanced approach and success throwing the ball. They don’t need to go out and throw for 400 yards and five touchdowns, but just be a little better to take some stress off the run game and keep the ball moving.

Andrew: Quarterback, the most important position in all of sports, of course. For the last week, Jack Tuttle has been able to walk around campus and hold his head high as Michigan’s starting quarterback. But with that comes the responsibilities of preparing like the starter, practicing like the starter, and ultimately playing like one to uplift and instill confidence in everyone around him. Going from plucky reliever to starter is a daunting task, but if Tuttle can bring baseline competence and consistency to the position this week, Michigan will have a chance to win.

Matt: I’m looking forward to seeing how the offense looks after two weeks of practice with Jack Tuttle at the helm. I don’t expect him to be a Heisman-caliber quarterback by any means, but you can tell his skillset is suited to the offense Michigan wants to run. I’m hopeful the week off will allow for the offense to find some sort of rhythm.

Kellen: The bye week could not have come at a better time. The Wolverines needed to get healthy after so many starters were out for the Washington loss. I’m looking forward to seeing a Michigan team at full strength face an Illinois team that came realllllly close to losing to the worst team in the Big Ten (and losing the eliminator challenge on the Pick’em Podcast for Von and I).

Illinois barely escaped Purdue last weekend, 50-49 in overtime. The game was on Illinois’ home turf and didn’t feature Purdue starting QB Hudson Card, who was out due to injury. Can we take anything away from this performance that leads you to believe Michigan can have similar success?

Von: Illinois’ defense got completely exposed last weekend by the Boilermakers. Purdue put up 297 passing yards with backup quarterback Ryan Browne, and 239 yards rushing, with two guys — Browne and Devin Mockobee — each going for more than 100 yards. Illinois’ defense had been rock solid all season long up until last week’s game, only giving up 78 points in the five games prior to Purdue, so perhaps Michigan can study the film and see what they can do to put plentiful points on the board with Jack Tuttle now under center.

Grace: In my opinion, the better game to look at for comparison is the Illinois/Penn State game. Michigan’s offense isn’t really built to put up more than 500 yards of offense. Penn State, on the other hand, ran for 239 yards and only threw for 135. The Nittany Lions came away with a 21-7, win and that feels more achievable for the Wolverines.

Nick: I’ll be honest, I didn’t watch much of this game, but I do know Purdue is not a good team and Illinois shouldn’t have been taken down to the wire. Purdue had success running the football with 239 yards on the ground, so I would expect Michigan to adopt a similar formula of pounding the rock. I think Illinois showed it was susceptible through the air as well, surrendering 297 yards to a backup quarterback, so perhaps this is the game Michigan can get something going in the passing game.

Andrew: That game broke my brain. Is there any lowest-level ‘Ewing Theory’ potential with Purdue? Perhaps my only takeaway is the Illinois offense found a way to score 50 against a P-4 opponent, and I am not sure if that is possible for the Wolverines.

Matt: All season long, I’ve wondered if Illinois is as good as its record indicated. The respectable showing in a loss two weeks ago to Penn State left me with inconclusive results. However, last week’s nail-biter over Purdue gives me significant hope Michigan should be able to to take care of business. The defense will be a problem for the Fighting Illini.

Kellen: Illinois’ offense is still a pleasant surprise, but its defense couldn’t stop a runny nose against a team that has looked just as bad as Michigan on offense. Part of me is wondering if that was a kitchen sink, got-nothing-to-lose game from Purdue, but those defensive miscues makes me confident Michigan can at least make some progress offensively.

Give us a bold prediction or two for tomorrow’s game.

Von: Jack Tuttle will throw for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns against Illinois. (This may not seem bold, but Michigan has had just ONE 200+ yard passer this year — Davis Warren against Texas, and even in that game he only threw for 204 yards.)

Grace: Michigan gets most of their passing yards from a flea flicker.

Nick: I think Colston Loveland goes for over 100 yards receiving. Tuttle might be better at throwing the ball than Davis Warren or Alex Orji, but I don’t necessarily think that means that the receivers will have sorted much out. Loveland is and should continue to be the center of the passing game, so I think we could see a monster game from him with Tuttle throwing him the ball. Another bold prediction? We’ll go with another Will Johnson pick-six for no reason whatsoever.

Andrew: A Michigan wide receiver scores a touchdown. (this bold prediction feels very 2017).

Matt: The threat of a passing game opens up the running offense. Tuttle will throw for less than 150 yards, but Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings will eclipse 85 rushing yards each.

Kellen: Donovan Edwards will score both the first touchdown of the game and the touchdown that seals the victory for Michigan.

What do you think will be the final score and why?

Von (5-1): I got Michigan winning this one, 24-21. I think this is a pretty tight, relatively low-scoring game that goes Michigan’s way.

Grace (4-2): I’ve got Michigan winning, 24-17. The defense is going to give up a few big plays that lead to scores for Illinois, but the defense does enough to force a short field. From there, Michigan can score enough to win the game.

Nick (2-0): Deep breath. I think Michigan wins it, 21-13, following generally the same script as Penn State’s win over Illinois. Let the run game carry the load on offense, and the defense has itself a bounce back performance after the bye week.

Andrew (3-2): Michigan shows improvement, but its old bad habits rear their ugly heads at the worst time. Illinois wins, 24-21.

Matt (2-2): Michigan 24, Illinois 21. Michigan has had two weeks to get healthy and figure out how to function as an offense. I would hope a scripted drive or two can propel the Wolverines to an early lead they can hang onto thanks to an excellent run game.

Kellen (1-3): Michigan wins, 31-28, because of an offensive line that’s gotten healthy, a full game with Jack Tuttle and big plays gashing a shaky Illinois defense.