ReliaQuest Bowl Prediction: Heavy-Hearted Mississippi State Takes on Illinois in Tampa

Solely 4 bowl video games stay earlier than the nationwide championship recreation, and first up on the Jan. 2 slate is an intriguing and emotional Massive Ten/SEC matchup. The Illinois Preventing Illini can be taking over the Mississippi State Bulldogs of their first recreation since head coach Mike Leach handed away.

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Each applications exceeded expectations this season and acquired to eight regular-season wins on the again of sizzling begins. Much less-than-stellar finishes down the stretch stored them from stepping into higher-profile bowl video games.

Illinois (8-4) entered the month of November with a 7-1 document and managed its personal future within the Massive Ten West. However after three consecutive uncharacteristic losses to start out the month (Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan), the Illini misplaced their alternative to go to Indianapolis. They completed the season by defeating arch-rival Northwestern for his or her first eight-win marketing campaign since 2007. It was sufficient for head coach Bret Bielema to earn a contract extension that runs by way of the 2028 season.

As for the Bulldogs, they acquired off to a 5-1 begin, which included key wins over SEC West foes Texas A&M and Arkansas. However issues cooled off for MSU afterward, because it performed .500 ball (3-3) the remainder of the way in which, albeit with a win over Mississippi within the Egg Bowl. Nonetheless, that is the primary time Mississippi State has posted eight victories since 2018.

However the Bulldogs, particularly, come into this recreation with very heavy hearts. Leach’s passing on Dec. 12 got here as a shock to your entire trade, and the staff is transferring ahead with defensive coordinator Zach Arnett as the brand new head coach. He was given a four-year contract extension to take the job and plans to maintain operating Leach’s Air Raid assault.

There have been questions as as to whether or not the Bulldogs would transfer ahead within the aftermath of Leach’s passing, however the staff stated they will play the sport as a strategy to honor his reminiscence. So the Bulldogs look to win one for his or her coach, whereas Illinois seems to complete the season with a successful streak.

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 22 Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Illinois (8-4)

Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 2 at 12 p.m ET
The place: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
TV: ESPN
Reside Stream: fuboTV (Begin your free trial)
Unfold: Mississippi State -1.5
Tickets: As little as $75 on SITickets.com*

When Mississippi State Has the Ball

The Air Raid offense lives on in Starkville, and it is led by quarterback Will Rogers, who’s operated this offense to close perfection this season. Heading into this bowl recreation, Rogers is eighth within the nation in passing yards (3,713), seventh in landing passes (34), and second in move completions (386). He does not flip the ball over a lot, as he is solely thrown six interceptions, however Rogers has taken the fifth most sacks amongst SEC quarterbacks this season (24). 

Rogers has a litany of large receivers to throw the ball to, as Rara Thomas (44 rec., 626 yds.), Rufus Harvey (50, 472), Caleb Ducking (44, 467), Lideatrick Griffin (35, 449), and Jaden Walley (29, 305) are every averaging 9 or extra yards per catch. They’ve additionally mixed to catch 25 of Roger’s 34 landing passes. 

Along with Rogers’ effectiveness beneath middle, the Bulldogs even have well-rounded backs in Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson. They’ve collectively posted 1,020 speeding yards (with 12 landing runs) and 559 receiving yards, and so they can create tough matchups for opposing defenses. 

And that is precisely what Mississippi State will look to do in opposition to an Illinois protection that is lacking two key members of its secondary — Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown have pulled out of the sport to arrange for the NFL draft. These two have been the anchors of the Illini defensive backfield, and their departure means this unit loses 101 complete tackles, 21 move deflections, and 9 interceptions. Nonetheless, All-Massive Ten honoree Jartavius Martin (59 tackles, 2 compelled fumbles, 3 INTs), Kendall Smith (34 tackles, 4 INTs), and Tahveon Nicholson (19 tackles, 1 compelled fumble, 1 INT) are all able to their footwear and may have the assist of a robust entrance seven in entrance them.

The core of this Illinois protection is on the linebacker place the place Isaac Darkangelo (67 tackles, 1 sack), Seth Coleman (42 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Tarique Barnes (40, 1.5), Gabe Jacas (32, 4), and Calvin Hart Jr. (21, 0.5) have held their very own in opposition to quite a lot of totally different offenses. This group is anchored proper on the entrance by All-Massive Ten honoree defensive linemen Jer’Zhan Newton (56, 5.5) and Keith Randolph Jr. (51. 4.5, 1 INT). Calvin Avery and Jamal Woods have additionally contributed (mixed for 35 complete tackles).

However Witherspoon and Brown aren’t the one defensive names who will not be in Tampa, as defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is now the pinnacle coach at Purdue. Head coach Bret Bielema can be dealing with the defensive requires this recreation. However it’s a protection that leads the nation in scoring protection (12.3 ppg) and ranks second in complete protection (263.8 ypg), sixth in move protection (165.4 ypg), and eighth in run protection (98.4 ypg). They’ve additionally recorded 28 sacks, and so they lead the nation in interceptions (22). The Illini’s mission can be to always stress Rogers to maintain him from transferring the ball at will; they will additionally have to execute hole management and be disciplined. 

When Illinois Has the Ball

Whereas Quarterback Tommy DeVito hasn’t had eye-popping numbers in 2022, he is executed simply what the staff wants him to do to regular the ship. DeVito completed the common season seventh amongst Massive Ten signal-callers in passing yards (2,397), first in completion share (69.9), sixth in accomplished passes (234), and fifth in passer score (142.3). 

Huge receivers Isaiah Williams, Pat Bryant, Brian Hightower, and Casey Washington, together with tight finish Michael Marchese, have mixed to catch 174 of DeVito’s passes this season for 1,870 yards and 11 touchdowns. Their mixed output can be all of the extra essential contemplating what the staff is lacking in Tampa.

The bottom recreation has made this Illini staff go in 2022, however they will be short-handed in that facet. Operating again Chase Brown determined to show professional, regardless of having some eligibility left, and can be sitting out the bowl recreation. Brown has put collectively among the finest seasons in program historical past, as he completed the common season third within the FBS in speeding yards (1,643, led Massive Ten, second in a single season in Illinois historical past), solely trailed Air Pressure’s Brad Roberts in speeding makes an attempt (328, new college document), and ran for 10 touchdowns.

Illinois will nonetheless have loads of touches for Brown’s fellow operating backs in Reggie Love III, Chase Hayden, and Josh McCray (mixed for 403 speeding yards). Hayden will graduate after the season, however this can be Love’s and McCray’s likelihood to make their case for the beginning job in 2023.

They will be lining up a Mississippi State protection that has given up its justifiable share of yards but additionally has some expertise. The Bulldogs completed fifth within the SEC in complete protection (350.3 ypg), move protection (206.8 ypg), and run protection (143.6 ypg). They have been additionally seventh in scoring protection (24.2 ypg). This group is powered by its linebacker trio of Nathaniel Watson (SEC-leading 108 tackles), Jett Johnson (103 complete tackles), and Tyrus Wheat (seventh within the SEC with 6.0 sacks). 

One other main contributor is cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, who leads the convention with six interceptions, and ranks fourth with 10 move breakups. The Bulldogs have recorded 24 sacks (seventh within the SEC) with an SEC-leading 14 picks. Illinois might want to discover a strategy to proceed transferring the ball constantly with out Brown, whereas Mississippi State should make Illinois one-dimensional and exploit the potential void that Brown’s absence leaves behind.

Remaining Evaluation

This can be simply the third all-time assembly between these two applications. Illinois received the primary assembly in 1923, and Mississippi State received the rematch in 1980. This recreation can be a rubber match of kinds. The Illini are simply 9-25 all-time in opposition to SEC groups, and this would be the first time they’ve lined up in opposition to an SEC squad since shedding to LSU on the Sugar Bowl on New 12 months’s Day of 2002.

The Bulldogs have not faired a lot better in opposition to the Massive Ten, as they’re 3-10-1 all-time in opposition to that convention. In addition they misplaced their final recreation in opposition to Massive Ten opposition, which occurred to be on this identical bowl recreation in opposition to Iowa on New 12 months’s Day of 2019.  That is the thirteenth consecutive bowl look for Mississippi State; they’ve gone 7-5 of their earlier 12 appearances, together with final yr’s loss to Texas Tech within the Liberty Bowl.

However for Illinois, this can be simply their third bowl look within the final decade. They misplaced the Coronary heart of Dallas Bowl in 2014 and fell within the RedBox Bowl in 2019. Their final bowl victory got here within the 2011 Kraft Battle Starvation Bowl. Regardless of the Illini’s lack of success in current bowl video games, and its expertise losses heading into this recreation, they’ve depth to fill these losses. Particularly on the defensive aspect. And with their protection, they will discover a strategy to win a really shut and aggressive recreation.

Prediction: Illinois 24, Mississippi State 23

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— Written by Gabe Salgado, who’s a part of the Athlon Contributor Community. He is additionally written for NBC, Fox, The Sporting Information, The Sports activities Journal, The Undefeated and Complicated. He will also be heard on WGN Radio. Observe him on Twitter @GabeSalgado82.

*Worth as of publication.