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Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model

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Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model


This weekend brings us a meeting between ranked Big Ten rivals, one looking to earn its first conference win and another hoping to win a second league game, as No. 19 Illinois goes on the road to Happy Valley against No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday night. 

Illinois already boasts a road victory against a ranked Big Ten opponent after taking down Nebraska last week and defeating a then-ranked Kansas team a few weeks ago.

Penn State is perfect through 3 games and is coming off a 56-0 domination against Kent State, embarking on the first of an expected three Big Ten games against ranked opponents this season.

What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?

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Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Illinois compare in this Big Ten football game under the lights.

As expected, the simulations are siding more with the home team this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 33 to 15 and will win the game by an expected 18.6 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Penn State -1200 and for Illinois at +720 to win outright.

And the book set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

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Other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions to take down the Fighting Illini.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the majority 86.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.7 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 16.9 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with a 59.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Illinois a 9.1 percent shot at the playoff and a win projection of 8 games.

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: NBC network

More … Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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New building owner addresses backlash over mural in downtown Springfield

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New building owner addresses backlash over mural in downtown Springfield


SPRINGFIELD, Mo. (KY3) – A long-standing mural honoring Robert E. Smith on the side of a building at Campbell and Walnut has been covered up, prompting community backlash against the building’s new owner.

David Pere, owner of FMTM LLC, purchased the building in downtown Springfield and said he intended it to reflect his business, which focuses on helping veterans with financial strategies and goals. Covering the mural was part of that plan.

Pere said he was out of town in Tennessee when painting began and learned about the community reaction through messages on his phone.

“I’m like, I was in Tennessee running an event. I didn’t even know he’d started painting until I got a bunch of really nasty messages on my phone,” Pere said. “And I go, oh, look, that’s our building getting painted. I guess he started.”

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Pere said he did not anticipate the response. “You know, we didn’t. I didn’t know how much of an impact this was going to make,” he said.

Jesse Tyler, co-owner of SGFCO, said he wanted the mural to stay and expressed concern about the lack of safeguards for publicly recognized works of art.

“To paint over that is to say, like, could be interpreted as saying that his work is no longer relevant or that his story is no longer relevant. I don’t think that’s true,” Tyler said. “Robert’s artwork needs to be part of downtown for as long as we can maintain that memory and maintain that legacy.”

Tyler said the community had hoped protections would be in place for the mural. “Maybe we didn’t have those protections that we hope there would be, that maybe the sort of legacy and awareness of Robert’s work that we hope there would be wasn’t there,” he said.

The City of Springfield posted online, acknowledging the artwork held deep meaning for many residents. Because the building is privately owned, however, Pere is within his rights to make changes to its exterior.

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Pere said he hopes to help relocate the mural to a more permanent location. “We want to help migrate that mural to a wall where it could be more permanent,” he said. “I’d love to help them find a space for it. I’d love to help. I’d love to see the city get involved to the point where that space could be a permanent space where it’s actually maintained because it is obvious now that it is very important to the city of Springfield.”

Pere is already working with an artist on a new mural for the side of the building, intended to represent veterans. That mural is expected to begin going up at the end of the month.

To report a correction or typo, please email digitalnews@ky3.com. Please include the article info in the subject line of the email.



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Missed the lunar eclipse? See when the next one will be over Illinois

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Missed the lunar eclipse? See when the next one will be over Illinois


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Millions across the United States who woke up early Tuesday were treated to a “blood moon,” the only total lunar eclipse occurring in North America in 2026, according to NASA.

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Illinois residents who missed it will be waiting some time for the next total lunar eclipse to shine above the U.S. — several years, in fact. But a partial lunar eclipse is coming sooner.

When is the next total lunar eclipse in Illinois?

After March 3, Illinois’ next visible total lunar eclipse won’t happen again until June 2029, writes Time and Date. There is a partial lunar eclipse coming sooner, however.

Others are reading: Free Full Moon Queso at Qdoba. How to get in Illinois

When is the next lunar eclipse?

A partial lunar eclipse will be visible in Illinois on Aug. 27-28, shining over the Americas, Europe, Africa and parts of Asia, according to NASA.

Provided you’re willing to stay up late to see it, the partial lunar eclipse will be at its maximum around 11:12 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27, in Illinois.

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Until then, here’s what people in parts of the U.S. were seeing Tuesday morning.

See photos of the March 3 total lunar eclipse

Calendar of upcoming eclipses

When is the next solar eclipse?

The next solar eclipse will be visible to roughly 980 million people on Aug. 12, 2026, writes Time and Date.

A total solar eclipse will occur over Greenland, Iceland, Spain, Russia and a small area of Portugal, while a partial eclipse will be visible in Europe, Africa, North America, the Atlantic Ocean, Arctic Ocean and Pacific Ocean, NASA reports.

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Need help finding stars, planets and constellations? Try these free astronomy apps

The following free astronomy apps can help you locate stars, planets, and constellations.



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Illinois lawmakers consider tightening DUI law to 0.05 BAC

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Illinois lawmakers consider tightening DUI law to 0.05 BAC


COLLINSVILLE, Ill. (First Alert 4) – Right now, in Illinois, Missouri and most of the country, drivers must be at or over 0.08 to get a DUI. A proposal in the Illinois Statehouse would lower that threshold.

“Make it as safe as you possibly can out there,” said John Sapolis.

Collinsville resident John Sapolis said while lowering Illinois’ DUI threshold would not affect him, as he rarely drinks, he likes the idea of getting drinkers off the road.

“It’s bad enough out there driving around with people who are not drinking,” said Sapolis.

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If a bill passes in the Illinois House of Representatives, the blood alcohol limit would be lowered, meaning fewer drinks could put somebody over the line for a DUI.

Two Chicago-area lawmakers propose lowering the threshold from 0.08 to 0.05.

“Your body still is not in a proper state to really be behind the wheel,” said Erin Doherty, Regional Executive Director for Mothers Against Drunk Driving.

Doherty said even at 0.05, drivers are less coordinated and cannot track moving objects as well as when they are sober.

Utah is the only state in the country to have the 0.05 limit, and Doherty said one in five drivers there changed their behavior.

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“There are so many other options before getting behind the wheel,” said Doherty.

Sara Floyd used to live in Utah and now calls Collinsville home.

“The Midwest people like to have a few beers while they watch their Little League games

“In Utah, you can barely get alcohol at a gas station,” said Floyd.

She said the culture in Utah is very different and thinks there should be some wiggle room for drivers.

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“If one person had a beer within an hour period and then drove, they shouldn’t get a DUI for one drink,” said Floyd.

Doherty said they do not recommend driving even after a single drink.

“You really should not get behind the wheel when you’re any kind of impaired, one drink, five drinks, whatever that looks like, just don’t drive,” said Doherty.

While each body processes alcohol differently, according to the National Library of Medicine, in a two-hour period it takes a 170-pound man three to four drinks to reach 0.05, and it takes a 137-pound woman two to three drinks to reach the same state.

April Sage said she does not think this law would work, saying instead it would help more if the state added more public transit.

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“I could have three beers and get a ride home safely,” said Sage.

First Alert 4 reached out to a spokesman for the Illinois Department of Transportation to see if they had any comments on this bill. The spokesperson said they are not going to comment because it is pending legislation.

According to the Illinois Department of Public Health, fatal crashes involving one driver who had been drinking increased 4% from 2019 to 2022, despite multiple studies showing fewer Americans are drinking.



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