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Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model

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Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model


This weekend brings us a meeting between ranked Big Ten rivals, one looking to earn its first conference win and another hoping to win a second league game, as No. 19 Illinois goes on the road to Happy Valley against No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday night. 

Illinois already boasts a road victory against a ranked Big Ten opponent after taking down Nebraska last week and defeating a then-ranked Kansas team a few weeks ago.

Penn State is perfect through 3 games and is coming off a 56-0 domination against Kent State, embarking on the first of an expected three Big Ten games against ranked opponents this season.

What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?

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Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Illinois compare in this Big Ten football game under the lights.

As expected, the simulations are siding more with the home team this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 33 to 15 and will win the game by an expected 18.6 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Penn State -1200 and for Illinois at +720 to win outright.

And the book set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

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Other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions to take down the Fighting Illini.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the majority 86.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.7 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 16.9 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with a 59.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Illinois a 9.1 percent shot at the playoff and a win projection of 8 games.

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: NBC network

More … Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Illinois in the trenches again to protect fair housing

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Illinois in the trenches again to protect fair housing


Is housing discrimination illegal even if the action wasn’t intended?

According to the Fair Housing Act, yes.

Should the federal government go after errant housing providers in those scenarios? Well, that depends on the president.

In 2013, Barack Obama codified what’s known as the “disparate impact” rule, in other words, recognizing discriminatory practices not motivated by discriminatory intent. The Biden administration reinstated the rule. Now President Donald Trump seeks to roll it back by preventing agencies from investigating housing discrimination complaints.

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Still, the disparate impact remains legal — federally and locally. And Illinois ensured extra protections by codifying disparate impact into state law. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reduced the workforce in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and is antagonistic toward fair housing.

Let’s go back to the legal origins. In 1966, Martin Luther King Jr. spent time in the city for the Chicago Freedom Movement, which protested housing segregation and slums. Part of that campaign sent Black people to real estate offices, and agents told them they had no listings. Soon after, the campaign sent white people to the same offices, and agents gave them listings. After King’s assassination in 1968, Congress quickly passed the Fair Housing Act. The civil rights law prohibited discrimination against people trying to rent or buy a home. Race, sex and national origin are among the protected classes.

Today that King campaign is called “testing,” and fair housing organizations continue the practice. They send two people — one pair Black and one pair white — with otherwise similar profiles to visit the same housing provider. The volunteers are trained to see how they are treated and report back if discrimination occurs. State and local fair housing centers do a variety of education and fight discrimination — to the chagrin of the Trump administration, which has also sought to gut their funding. To advance fair housing, HUD is a primary source of financing. Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, along with other states, filed a lawsuit to challenge the attacks. Some contracts have been reinstated, but not every center received back money.

“A lot of our worst fears have kind of already happened. We know that it’s going to take at least a decade to rebuild the federal infrastructure to what it was before with the number of federal workers,” said Emily Coffey of the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights. “What we had a couple of years ago was never enough. We are still one of the most segregated cities in the country. What worries me the most is that we won’t be able to sustain what we have, and rebuilding that is so much more challenging than just weathering a storm.”

To counter the political climate, fair housing groups have formed the Illinois Housing Equity Collective, which seeks $5 million from the state for fair housing enforcement. So far philanthropy has contributed to the collective.

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Michael Chavarria leads HOPE Fair Housing Center, which serves DuPage and Kane counties and parts of Northern Illinois. The mixed messaging from the federal government has prevented growth and also caused rearranging their budget while waiting on reimbursements. He doesn’t want to tap into reserves to cover a bill when the federal government promised that money.

“Just last year we held over 40 events that were targeted at training individuals, be it housing seekers, housing providers, local government. We reached about 3,500 people through our online educational campaigns. We reached almost 750,000 people across Illinois. So we really aim to prevent discrimination by making sure everyone knows their rights and responsibilities. We do not want to have to sue people,” Chavarria said.

Illinois finds itself once again on the front lines of protecting residents — see reproductive, immigration or First Amendment rights. And now must add fair housing, which Trump pushed against just last week by refusing to sign a bipartisan housing affordability bill.

The reason? He first wants Congress to approve the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility, or SAVE America Act — legislation designed to create more inequity and burn democracy to the ground.

Natalie Y. Moore is a senior lecturer at Northwestern University.

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New Illinois bill aims to overhaul public defense system | The Chicago Report

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New Illinois bill aims to overhaul public defense system | The Chicago Report


A major overhaul to the Illinois justice system could be officially underway.
 House Bill 3363 lays the foundation for a brand new agency, the state public defender office. 
 The goal is to bring more consistent legal representation for Illinois residents who can’t afford an attorney.
 Joining us now to discuss the rolled-out timeline is the bill’s sponsor, State representative Dave Vella, who actually started his legal career as a public defender, before heading to Springfield.



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Illinois Democrats face backlash after blaming Trump in Chicago cross-burning case | Fox News Video

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Illinois Democrats face backlash after blaming Trump in Chicago cross-burning case | Fox News Video


Illinois Democratic leaders Governor JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson are slammed for weaponizing a Chicago cross burning incident by blaming former President Trump. Despite the suspect, Murlin Lue, admitting his motive was to protest Trump, not racism, Pritzker and Johnson doubled down. Critics, including Illinois GOP State Rep. Chris Miller, accuse them of playing politics and fostering division rather than seeking truth.



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