Illinois
Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model
This weekend brings us a meeting between ranked Big Ten rivals, one looking to earn its first conference win and another hoping to win a second league game, as No. 19 Illinois goes on the road to Happy Valley against No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday night.
Illinois already boasts a road victory against a ranked Big Ten opponent after taking down Nebraska last week and defeating a then-ranked Kansas team a few weeks ago.
Penn State is perfect through 3 games and is coming off a 56-0 domination against Kent State, embarking on the first of an expected three Big Ten games against ranked opponents this season.
What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?
Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Illinois compare in this Big Ten football game under the lights.
As expected, the simulations are siding more with the home team this weekend.
SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 33 to 15 and will win the game by an expected 18.6 points.
The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory in the game.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.
Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Penn State -1200 and for Illinois at +720 to win outright.
And the book set the total at 47.5 points for the game.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …
Other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions to take down the Fighting Illini.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Penn State is projected to win the game in the majority 86.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.
That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.7 percent of sims.
Penn State is projected to be 16.9 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with a 59.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Illinois a 9.1 percent shot at the playoff and a win projection of 8 games.
When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: NBC network
More … Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say
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Combined state and federal taxes would take more than 50% of the top-end income for 22,000 Illinois small businesses.
Proposals in the Illinois General Assembly could slam massive tax hikes onto small businesses, the state’s primary job creator historically and in the recovery from the COVID-19 downturn.
One measure would punish 22,020 Illinois small businesses with a huge increase in their marginal state income tax rate and create a top tax rate of nearly 50.3% for them, once all state and federal income taxes are factored in.
S-corporations and partnerships, which “pass-through” their business income to their owners, who pay taxes as individuals, would see their top marginal state income tax rate jump from 4.95% to 7.95%, a 61% hike.
That would happen because the legislation, House Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 21, adds a 3% income tax on income above $1 million. It is scheduled for a hearing April 23 at which it could pass out of committee and go to a potential full House vote.
Research has shown that an increase in the top marginal tax rate is associated with a decrease in entrepreneurs’ hiring activity and lower wages for their employees.
Illinois has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation and among the slowest wage growth. These are exacerbated by some of the highest state and local tax burdens in the nation, including the second-highest property taxes and eighth-highest sales taxes.
In 2017 Illinois residents endured the largest permanent income tax hike in state history, when lawmakers increased the rate by 32%, from 3.75% to 4.95%.
Illinois already pushes out more businesses than virtually any other state. The “millionaire’s tax” could make the situation even worse. Illinoisans should reject this call for higher taxes on the state’s vital small business community.
Contact your state representative to stop the small business tax hike here.
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