Mandel’s Mailbag: Is Northern Illinois’ upset at Notre Dame bigger than App State at Michigan?

Let’s jump right into your questions this week.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Is Northern Illinois’ win over No. 5 Notre Dame a bigger or lesser upset than Appalachian State over No. 5 Michigan in 2007? — Chris H.

I don’t want to diminish the 28.5-point underdog NIU winning in South Bend, but App State remains the gold standard for shock level.

That Michigan team nearly reached the national championship game the year before, was ranked No. 3 in the country and boasted the likes of Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham and more. And App State was an FCS team, at a time when there wasn’t as much awareness of the top FCS programs as there is today. The game was so off the radar that it aired on Big Ten Network before most people even knew how to find Big Ten Network.

I might feel differently if Notre Dame hadn’t lost to Marshall in the same spot two years earlier. Losing to NIU, while surprising, did not seem implausible.

Here’s one team from each Power 4 conference off to a disappointing start: Maryland, NC State, Texas Tech and Auburn. Is it too early to panic for any of these, or is there a good reason for the fans to be restless? — Andrew G., Houston

I’d be panicking if I’m a Texas Tech fan because we have two games of evidence that the Red Raiders’ defense is next-level horrendous. In Week 1, it allowed 506 passing yards to Abilene Christian’s Maverick McIvor — a former Texas Tech backup — in a 52-51 overtime escape. In Week 2, Washington State quarterback John Mateer ran for 197 yards, and his team ran for 301, in a 37-16 blowout.

If Joey McGuire doesn’t figure out something fast, that team could be headed toward the bottom rung of the 16-team Big 12.

Hugh Freeze is 7-8 in his first 15 games as Auburn’s coach. (John Reed / Imagn Images)

I’d also be panicking if I’m Auburn. It hired Hugh Freeze because of his history of producing high-powered offenses, but two games into Year 2, the Tigers’ offense remains dreadful. The Tigers gained just 286 yards in their 21-14 loss to Cal, with quarterback Payton Thorne throwing four interceptions. Fans are calling for Freeze to bench Thorne, but there is no obvious alternative. Auburn’s best hope is that its defense plays at a lights-out level all season and maybe the Tigers can go full Iowa.

NC State laid an egg against Tennessee, but that’s likely the best opponent the Wolfpack will face all season. So I wouldn’t panic there just yet. As for Maryland, I had no expectations for the Terps to begin with. I fear they’ve already topped out under Mike Locksley.

Bruce Feldman gets access to your bank account and is going to bet all of your available cash on one one-loss team to make the College Football Playoff. Do you hope he puts it all on LSU, Clemson, Notre Dame or Michigan? — Chad from Brooklyn

First of all, if Bruce gets access to my bank account, I might as well declare bankruptcy now because the man knows less about financial stuff than anyone I’ve ever met. He probably thinks a 401K is a test they do at the combine.

As for my answer … Clemson?

I would not have guessed I’d say that a week ago, but Dabo Swinney’s offense went from scoring three points against Georgia to scoring 56 in the first half against App State. Cade Klubnik was a mere 24-of-26 for 378 yards and five touchdowns. Granted, App State is not a national championship contender, but it’s a respected mid-major program that played in last year’s Sun Belt title game.

The Georgia game still served as a reaffirmation that Clemson can no longer hang with the sport’s elite tier, but it’s entirely plausible the Tigers could turn around and win the ACC — not exactly the world’s most daunting conference. Clemson’s next game is against an NC State team that lost 51-10 to Tennessee. And — here’s a sentence I never thought I’d write — the Tigers don’t have to face surprise teams Boston College, Syracuse or Cal.

For the record, I am not yet writing off Notre Dame as a CFP team. But Clemson can lose another game and still earn an automatic berth. The Irish cannot.

Where would you rank the current Group of 5 teams contending for the final Playoff spot? Is it more likely that the committee chooses a team with a strong schedule with a close loss to a Power 4 team (Boise State, Tulane) or a team with a weak schedule that goes undefeated (Liberty)? — Charlie B.

Last year, the committee let a Liberty team that went undefeated against air have a free trip to Arizona because why not? Oregon was going to stomp whoever got that New Year’s Six spot. With a Playoff berth on the line, however, I suspect it will give more scrutiny to these teams’ resumes, in which case those Power 4 games will carry more weight.

As of today, I still have Memphis as my projected Group of 5 team, but we’ve admittedly learned next to nothing about the Tigers so far with their 40-0 win over North Alabama and 38-17 win over Troy. But they get their crack at a Power 4 win Saturday against a beatable Florida State team before commencing AAC play.

My current rankings:

1. 1. Memphis. Seth Henigan for Heisman!
   2. USF. It has a huge Sept. 21 home game against Miami, then back-to-back tests against Tulane and Memphis.
   3. Tulane. I could not have been more impressed with redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah in Tulane’s heartbreaker against Kansas State. The Green Wave could win the AAC.
   4. Boise State. I’d have the Broncos No. 1 if they had defeated Oregon. They need to knock off Washington State in two weeks because the Mountain West will not provide opportunities for quality wins.
   5. NIU. Like 2021 Cincinnati, the Huskies now boast a huge win at Notre Dame. They probably need to go undefeated, however, because the MAC will drag down their schedule strength.

After a dismal Week 1 performance against Old Dominion, I’m not sure if I’m more surprised that South Carolina clobbered Kentucky or that ESPN’s “College GameDay” is coming to town. Based on what we know after two weeks, do you think the Gamecocks have a chance against LSU? — Rob W., Columbia, S.C.

South Carolina 31, Kentucky 6 was arguably the strangest non-Florida State game so far this season. Seriously, where did that come from? While I didn’t expect Kentucky to win the SEC, I at least thought it would be able to move the ball past the line of scrimmage. Incorrect! And you’re telling me South Carolina has a top-20 defense now? … Since when?

The Gamecocks entered the season with a few established defenders like All-SEC linebacker Debo Williams and safeties Nick Emmanwori (who had a pick six on Saturday) and DQ Smith. But credit to Shane Beamer for bringing in high-impact players like Georgia Tech edge-rusher Kyle Kennard, Pitt linebacker Bangally Kamara and five-star freshman edge Dylan Stewart. South Carolina’s pass rush was so dominant Saturday that Kentucky stopped trying to throw the ball, at one point rushing 18 straight times. Wildcats starting quarterback Brock Vandagriff finished with three completions and was sacked four times.

As for Saturday, LSU is gettable, but it’s going to be a different challenge. The Tigers’ offensive line is very good, and Garrett Nussmeier and his receivers pose a much bigger passing threat. Realistically, South Carolina is going to have to score some points, and its offense appears limited. It gained just 288 yards in that 23-19 win over Old Dominion. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers looked better against Kentucky, but he was also sacked four times, and the Gamecocks managed 79 rushing yards.

All in all, I do not like their chances. But I underestimated them coming into the season and may be doing so again now.

Is it safe to say that the Deion Sanders experiment is a failure and we can stop fawning over him? — Daryl C Cornish, N.H.

I’d advise against calling anything “safe” two games into the season. For one thing, the Nebraska team that blew out Colorado last weekend may have the best defense the Buffs will face this season, outside of perhaps Utah.

But it’s more likely at this point that this story is not going to have a happy ending.

If you’re a CU fan, you just want to see progress from Year 1 to Year 2, but the offense looks exactly the same at this point. The Buffs barely attempt to run the ball, which puts the onus of the offense entirely on Shedeur Sanders, whom CU still can’t protect. Color me shocked that career 19-46 NFL coach Pat Shurmur has not proven to be the Buffs’ magic bullet. They still have elite playmakers in Sanders and receivers Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr., but it feels like a waste that they play with such a woeful offensive line and rushing attack.

To Sanders’ credit, it appears the defense has improved. I was skeptical when he hired Cincinnati Bengals secondary coach Robert Livingston as his defensive coordinator, but he has had an impact early on. Per TruMedia, CU increased its blitz rate from 28.5 percent last season to 46.8 percent this season and has seen its pressure rate rise from 28.9 percent (107th nationally) to 35.5 percent (40th). It’s a small sample size to be sure, but at least encouraging.

My biggest concern with Sanders is that the endless soap opera around that program is only going to grow if the Buffs continue to stumble. There will be more mini-controversies. He probably will demote someone midseason again. And at what point do some of the NFL-bound players check out?

But let’s say worst-case scenario, Colorado misses a bowl game again, and Deion moves on to his next thing. On the field, it would be deemed a failure. But would the whole thing still be worth it to the university?

CU has received more exposure during the last two years than it did in the previous 30. The Nebraska game, despite being over by halftime, was the sport’s second-most watched Week 2 broadcast with 6.3 million viewers, behind only Texas-Michigan (9.4 million). This week’s Colorado State game on CBS won’t do as big a number, but it should easily surpass the 2.3 million who watched Iowa State-Iowa on CBS last weekend.

And that’s all because of a coach, who is thus far 5-9, makes weird staff hires, refuses to go after high school recruits and bullies local reporters, but if nothing else, he knows how to build a brand.

(Top photo: Michael Clubb / USA Today)