Keys to victory, players to watch, prediction for Xavier vs. Illinois in NCAA Tournament

Xavier and Illinois last met in the Maui Invitational in 2019.

• Xavier plays Illinois Friday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
• Illinois is favored, but Xavier is playing in a familiar venue.
• Xavier must slow down Illinois’ offense to advance in the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier is into the 64-team field of the NCAA Tournament after pulling out a thrilling 86-80 victory over the Texas Longhorns in the First Four Wednesday night in Dayton.

It’s a quick turnaround for Xavier, but the Musketeers will play in another familiar venue as they battle No. 6 Illinois Friday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

Xavier had lost its first six games against Marquette at Fiserv Forum before a 59-57 upset of the then-No. 7 Golden Eagles Jan. 18. It will be a neutral site contest this time around when Xavier takes on an Illinois program that is very familiar with the pressures of the NCAA Tournament.

3 keys to a Xavier Musketeers’ win over Illinois Fighting Illini in NCAA Tournament 1st round

1. Xavier must slow down one of nation’s highest-scoring offenses

In the aforementioned Xavier upset of Marquette, the Musketeers turned one of their best defensive efforts to pull out their only Quad 1 win of the year.

Xavier held Marquette to just 37.1% shooting (8-for-29 from three-point range), kept the Golden Eagles off the free-throw line (3-for-7) and forced 13 turnovers.

It will be an even bigger test Friday as Xavier tries to punch its ticket to the second round. Illinois ranks No. 15 in KenPom in offensive efficiency. Illinois is No. 11 in scoring offense at 83.8 points per game and does a lot of damage near the rim as the No. 18 shooting team from two-point range.

Xavier always likes to play fast and that matches what Illinois likes to do as the No. 18 team in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.

Can Xavier’s defense Friday be the unit that showed up in the second half against Texas and held the red-hot Longhorns to 33 points on 37.5% shooting?

2. Can Xavier force long misses?

Illinois loves shooting from the perimeter. The Fighting Illini attempt 46.9% of its field goals from beyond the arc, which is the 30th-highest rate in the country.

The problem? Illinois is the fifth-worst three-point shooting team in the NCAA Tournament (No. 316 in the nation). Xavier’s defense must be tough near the rim against a bigger lineup and force Illinois out of what it does best and into more attempts from the perimeter. Illinois connects from downtown at just a 31.1% clip, which was 17th in the 18-team Big 10.

Xavier’s defensive rebounding will be tested

In Tuesday’s pre-tournament press conferences in Dayton, Xavier sophomore Dailyn Swain said the Musketeers’ improvement on the glass helped propel the team down the stretch to an at-large bid.

The numbers back it up. Per BartTorvik.com, Xavier ranks No. 8 in the country in defensive rebounding since the Musketeers hit a “low point” in early January after giving up 20 offensive boards and 22 second-chance points in a home loss to St. John’s.

Xavier lost the rebounding battle to Texas, 33-28 and gave up nine offensive boards.

Illinois will certainly test Xavier on the glass, and it will be on the key matchups to watch. Illinois might be a bottom-half shooting team, but the Fighting Illini clean up their misses as they ranked No. 18 in the country and first in the Big 10 in offensive rebounding.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Tip: Friday, 9:45 p.m. (E.T.), Fiserv Forum (17,385)

TV/Radio: CBS/Westwood One

Ratings: Xavier is No. 41 in KenPom and Illinois is No. 20. Xavier is No. 45 in the NCAA NET Rankings and Illinois is No. 17.

History: The two teams have split four all-time meetings with Xavier winning the last two. The Musketeers won, 65-59, at then-U.S. Bank Arena in Dec. 2006 and in the Maui Invitation in 2019.

More: Here’s what happened the last time Brad Underwood’s Illinois team played Xavier

Illinois Fighting Illini scouting report

Record: 21-12

Head coach: Brad Underwood (164-100 at Illinois, eighth season)

Offense: 83.8 ppg

Defense: 74.6 ppg

Overview: Brad Underwood has now taken Illinois to the NCAA Tournament in five consecutive seasons and broke through last year with a Sweet 16 appearance.

With its streaky shooting, Illinois was a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team throughout the year. The Fighting Illini spent 10 weeks in the AP poll, but dropped seven of 11 between Jan. 19-Feb. 22 before a three-game winning streak to end the regular season.

Illinois raced past Iowa in the opening round of the Big 10 Tournament before getting trounced by Maryland, 88-65, in the quarterfinals March 14.

Projected starting lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Kylan Boswell (G, 6’2″, 11.9 ppg)

Kasparas Jakucionis (G, 6’6″, 15 ppg)

Tre White (G, 6’7″, 10.7 ppg)

Will Riley (F, 6’8″, 12.5 ppg)

Tomislav Ivisic (C, 7’1″, 12.5 ppg)

Xavier Musketeers scouting report

Record: 22-11

Head coach: Sean Miller (185-86 at Xavier, eighth season)

Offense: 78.3 ppg

Defense: 71.2 ppg

Projected starting lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Dayvion McKnight (G, 6’0″, 9.5 ppg)

Ryan Conwell (G, 6’4″, 16.7 ppg)

Marcus Foster (G, 6’5″, 8 ppg)

Dailyn Swain (G/F, 6’8″, 10.5 ppg)

Zach Freemantle (F, 6’9″, 17.2 ppg)

Players to watch

Xavier’s biggest concern against a tall Illinois lineup is sophomore center Tomislav Ivisic. The 7-footer from Croatia is averaging 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game and could impact several shot attempts against a Xavier offense that gets its shots blocked at one of the nation’s highest rates.

Xavier’s offense got its biggest bump from Marcus Foster at UD Arena as the veteran guard went 8-for-9 from the field and knocked down four 3-pointers for a season-high 22 points. Foster hadn’t scored in double figures since Feb. 15. Illinois ranks No. 143 defensive against 3-pointers and is top 20 defending inside the arc.

Xavier also got 22 points off the bench against Texas thanks to the hot shooting of Dante Maddox Jr. and Jerome Hunter.

Hunter, the only player around for the Sweet 16 run since Freemantle was hurt, hit multiple three-pointers for the first time in the calendar year.

Xavier vs. Illinois pick and score prediction

Xavier’s defense got a wakeup call after giving up 89 points against Marquette in a Big East Tournament loss. Xavier won’t have the home-court advantage it had at UD Arena, but the Musketeers use another all-in defensive effort to upset the Fighting Illini.

Xavier’s offense should get quality looks against an Illinois defense that was 14th in the Big 10 in scoring (74.6 points per game) and the Musketeers are equipped to win in a track meet.

Five teams that started in the First Four have advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. There’s reason to believe Xavier could follow that trend.

Final score prediction: Xavier 81, Illinois 77