Illinois-Penn State 3 keys and a prediction: Is drama finally in store for Nittany Lions?

It’s not the White Out, but the energy Saturday night in and around Beaver Stadium is likely going to feel like a marquee home game.

This isn’t the kind of matchup many expected, myself included, when the schedule was released. No. 9 Penn State (3-0) has a homecoming game that suddenly features two ranked opponents. No. 19 Illinois (4-0) returns to the place where it last needed nine overtimes to beat the Nittany Lions in 2021.

Over time, Penn State and Illinois have given college football fans quite a few dramatic moments. Overcoming a 21-0 first quarter deficit added to the legacy of Penn State’s undefeated 1994 team, a group that will be honored on the field Saturday. There was also LaVar Arrington’s famous leap in 1999 that won’t soon be forgotten in State College or Champaign, Ill. Joe Paterno’s 409th career win, his last as Penn State’s head coach, came in a 10-7 win against the Illini in 2011.

Will Saturday night live up to some of the drama these teams have produced before? We’re certainly going to learn much more about this team. Here are three keys and a prediction.

How do Drew Allar, receivers handle Illinois’ man coverage?

This is the best test to date for Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. The Illini are 32nd nationally in total defense, surrendering an average of 292.3 yards per game. West Virginia, Penn State’s Week 1 opponent, is 102nd, while Bowling Green is 110th. Last week’s record-setting offensive performance against Kent State, in which Allar exited early in the third quarter with a 35-0 lead, was not a good barometer for much of anything.

Still, the Penn State offense has been as advertised this year, averaging 537.7 yards and 41.3 points per game. It’s been explosive, quick-strike and dynamic with lots of pre-snap motion and creativity. Penn State won’t march up and down the field all night against a Bret Bielema team. But, we should find out how this offense responds to a true test.

Can Penn State string together a long, sustained drive if it needs to? For all the strides this receiving corps has made, whether it’s been Harrison Wallace III, Omari Evans or tight end Tyler Warren, how does it stack up against better defensive backs?

Count James Franklin among those who are curious to learn more.

“Their secondary is really going to be a challenge for us,” Franklin said. “Our wide receivers have taken a really nice step and made some really good strides since last season, but we will be challenged.”

Do the wrinkles create pause?

Throughout nonconference play, Kotelnicki has shown countless creative wrinkles. Backup quarterback Beau Pribula has a role in every game. Warren, a tight end, has thrown a touchdown pass and taken a direct snap. Offensive lineman Vega Ioane could line up again as a lead blocker. There will be other options off many of these plays depending on how and when Kotelnicki uses them.

Illinois, like most opponents, can go back to Kansas’ film to see more of what Kotelnicki did prior to arriving at Penn State. How much time did Illinois’ defense spend this week trying to decipher all Penn State has shown and what it could show based off Kansas?

While Kotelnicki is willing to use his creativity at any point on the field, Penn State has scored on 13 of 14 trips to the red zone this season. Twelve of those trips have resulted in touchdowns. Doing anything to slow down defensive end Gabe Jacas will be key. Jacas forced two fumbles this season to go along with four tackles for loss and two sacks.

What’s the next gear for this Penn State defense?

Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton each recorded a sack against Kent State, their first of the season. They haven’t stuffed the stat sheet like most expected during nonconference games. Franklin insists it’s the style Bowling Green and Kent State played: Get the ball out quickly and limit the opportunities for two two talented edge rushers to go to work.

All of that changes now. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has completed 71.4 percent of passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. Altmyer has passed for 862 yards and had a rush of 15 yards or more in three of four games. Illinois is 82nd in total offense, and if Penn State can force it to have to play from behind, then these defensive ends should have plenty of opportunities to generate a pass rush.

This is as well rested of a Penn State defensive line as one can expect. No defensive lineman played more than 19 snaps and no starter played more than 23 snaps last week against Kent State.

Keep in mind

Penn State still has to work toward a long-term solution at safety without starter KJ Winston. Winston is dealing with a long-term injury, and there’s been no indication if or when he could potentially return. Ideally, freshman Dejuan Lane eventually slides into the starting spot opposite Zakee Wheatley. That solution would allow Jaylen Reed to play the lion position where he’s thrived. Per TruMedia, Lane played 22 snaps against Kent State. How much will they put on the freshman’s plate in conference play?

“I’m thankful for the 7:30 game. I know that sounds silly, but with some of the young guys that we’re playing, we need every minute we can in preparation,” Franklin said.

Don’t forget about

Tom Allen’s new spot. The defensive coordinator called the Kent State game from upstairs. Typically, Allen had been on the sideline while safeties coach Anthony Poindexter was in the booth. The swapped places last week. Franklin was non-committal about the game-day change being permanent, but it seems like the switch was made after communication issues popped up in the first half against Bowling Green.

Playoff implications

A win against a ranked opponent would certainly bolster the College Football Playoff resume. At this point, that’s what it’s all about. There’s certainly some temptation to think a few weeks down the road when Penn State plays No. 13 USC, but until then, this is a solid measuring stick, especially for Allar and the offense.

Player we’ll be talking about Sunday

Running back Nick Singleton has amassed 314 rushing yards and three total touchdowns through three games. Illinois’ 35th-ranked run defense will be a test, but as Bielema also pointed out, this is the best offensive line his team has seen.

Prediction

This one reminds me of the Iowa game last year. It was a night game, the Hawkeyes were ranked 24th at the time, and yet it never was close. Penn State’s offense had arguably its best showing of the season, and the defense was superb. A similar script could unfold Saturday night under the lights.

Penn State 30, Illinois 13

 (Photo of Omari Evans: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)