Breaking down Rutgers’ bowl scenarios after losing golden opportunity vs. Illinois

The dream postseason scenario was there for Rutgers … until it vanished in heartbreaking fashion.

Illinois not only sent Rutgers to one of its most-devastating losses of this century Saturday, it all but guaranteed Rutgers will not play in one of the Big Ten’s top-tier bowl games, too. With so much within grasp, including a program-defining victory, the ultimate prize was playing into position to earn a berth in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

Citrus Bowl scouts sat in the press box at SHI Stadium — and loved everything they saw — right up until the end when No. 24 Illinois stunned Rutgers with a miraculous, game-winning touchdown catch and run by senior Pat Bryant, which put the Illini over the top for a 38-31 victory.

What did the loss do to Rutgers and its postseason fate? With the loss, Rutgers fell right back into the middle of the Big Ten standings. After Saturday, Illinois and Iowa separated themselves from that pack. Rutgers, meanwhile, is now solidly in the thick of the muck with five other teams jostling for postseason positioning with one game remaining.

So with that uncertainty, where might the Scarlet Knights end up? Here’s a look at where things currently stand and what’s available.

Big Ten bowls

These seven games are listed in order of ranking, meaning the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl will land the top-ranked Big Ten team that does not qualify for the CFP. The selection process then flows downward for the next six selections. It should be noted there are “variety clauses” to ensure new teams appear in each bowl in two to three years depending on the bowl.

It’s also important to remember, the conference’s four newcomers — No. 1 Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC — are not eligible for the seven games with Big Ten ties. The newcomers who achieve bowl eligibility and do not qualify for the College Football Playoff will be selected from the former Pac-12′s “legacy pool,” a list of six games for teams that played in the conference in 2023.

Where things stand

Three games to watch

Assuming Indiana makes the College Football Playoff, these three games will have the biggest impact on Rutgers’ selection. Conveniently, they will all be played before the Scarlet Knights take the field against Michigan State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. in East Lansing.

Minnesota at Wisconsin, Friday at noon: Minnesota could knock Wisconsin out of the picture, which would be good news for Rutgers and narrow the field. In the process, Minnesota might become a more attractive selection at 7-5 — even though Rutgers owns the head-to-head win. If Wisconsin win, it really muddles the picture.

Nebraska at Iowa, Friday at 7:30 p.m.: Iowa would be a heavy favorite for the ReliaQuest Bowl with a win. It would also keep Nebraska behind Rutgers in the standings if the Scarlet Knights win at Michigan State.

Michigan at Ohio State, Saturday at noon: Michigan will be a big underdog, but even with a loss a 6-6 Michigan team might be a more attractive selection than Rutgers.

Even with a win, Rutgers can’t theoretically play its way out of the muck. If the best-case scenario is the Duke’s Mayo or Music City Bowl, the committees will need to evaluate Rutgers as a better pick than Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska or Wisconsin. That may be a long shot but not impossible.

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Patrick Lanni may be reached at planni@njadvancemedia.com.