Bowl or bust? What the experts think about Illinois football in 2024

The Illinois Fighting Illini are college football’s version of a Rorschach test. Those who are optimistic see opportunity and a likely bowl game. The pessimists see danger lurking.

The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Such is predicting the outcome of the Fighting Illini season in the new-look Big Ten Conference for 2024. Nearly every expert prognosticator picks Illinois to finish between five and six wins, with betting sites laying out the ever-so-tempting 5.5 over/under line for Illini victories.

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We took a spin around the Internet to find out what some of the top college football news sources had to say about the Illini in 2024:

The longtime college sports publication picked Illinois to finish 15th of 18 in the Big Ten Conference, which added four west coast teams in 2024 — Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington.

“Both sides of the ball need attention after 2023,” Athlon wrote of the Illini. “The defense gave up 12.8 points a game in 2022 but watched that total climb to 29.4 last fall.”

Athlon pointed out defensive losses, but also that a few key transfers should stabilize. The offense, meanwhile, gets three offensive line starters back and Athlon says quarterback Luke Altmyer is “expected to take a step forward” while running back Kaden Feagin is a “rising star.”

“More optimism surrounds the offense going into 2024,” wrote Athlon.

The CBS Sports betting writer also picked the Illini at 5-7, but set an optimistic tone. He also set the over/under at 5.5 wins, expecting victories against Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota and Michigan State.

“I’ve seen some articles written with extremely low expectations for the Illini, and while I understand the concerns about a defense that lost some key pieces, they won with their offense last season,” Fornelli wrote. “They could have one of the best offensive lines in the league, which should help them continue to score points. The primary obstacle is the schedule.”

The New York Times college football writer picked the Illini to finish 5-7 overall and 3-6 in Big Ten, a pretty standard prediction for the Illini. They sit in that nebulous and muddy middle of the Big Ten. So much so that Mandel took space to write about 10 of the 18 teams in the Big Ten preview. Illinois didn’t get an entry.

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ESPN also didn’t have much to say about Illinois in its Big Ten preview, picking the Illini 13th of 18, pointing out that the program’s minus-8 turnover margin ranked 123rd nationally in 2023.

Earlier this month, the longtime columnist from the Illini hometown News-Gazette assessed the Illini in a story headlined: “What’s in store for Bielema in Year Four?” An excerpt:

“(Bret) Bielema is in his 16th year as a head coach. He has a system he believes in. But if it worked or not with the Illinois team at hand won’t be known until the completion of the season. Finish 8-4 and it is a ‘Yes.’ Go 6-6 and it’s a ‘Maybe.’ Finish under .500 and out of a bowl for the third time in four years and it’s a ‘No.’ “

The stats-driven football site says the numbers plant Illinois firmly in the middle, but on the high end. The Illini are 49th in the power ranks, 32nd in strength of schedule. PFF, however, projects Illinois with seven wins.

“After a very successful 2022 season in which the Fighting Illini finished 8-5, the team came crashing down with a 5-7 record in 2023. And that, unfortunately, now means that Illinois has finished with a losing record in 11 of the last 12 seasons. … If Bret Bielema’s squad is to bounce back, it’ll likely be due to its defense. … the Fighting Illini’s front seven projects to be the team’s strength.”

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More optimism! The online college football site picks the Illini with six wins, which would make them bowl-eligible. The key to that? Get the defense working again.

“The 2022 Illinois defense was a brick wall to deal with,” CFN wrote. “It allowed fewer than 100 yards six times and won five of them. In all six games the Illini allowed fewer than 3 yards per carry, and allowed more in the other seven. Last season? The D allowed fewer than 100 yards just three times — and won all three games. More disruption, more attitude, more consistency — Illinois needs to be feared again.”

Illinois football 2024 schedule

This is the Illinois football 2024 schedule, with TV info; all times are CT.