Fox News projects Democrat Tammy Baldwin survives tight race to hold Wisconsin Senate seat

The Fox News Decision Desk projects that Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., managed to survive a tough re-election battle, defeating her Republican opponent in the swing state. 

She overcame challenger Eric Hovde, a Republican businessman who sought to unseat her. He was notably endorsed by former President Trump. 

Baldwin will now serve a third term in the upper chamber after first being elected in 2012. 

FOR WISCONSIN DEMS, A 2024 WIN IN THE BATTLEGROUND STATE IS YEARS IN THE MAKING

The race in Wisconsin was considered particularly competitive given the expectation that the state would also be decisive in the presidential election. With the steep decline in split-ticket voting, a Senate candidate would have a much greater chance at winning if the presidential candidate also took the state. 

The Fox News Power Rankings rated Wisconsin as a toss up in the presidential election as of mid-October. In late September, the Senate race was rated “Leans Democrat.” 

Top political handicapper, the Cook Political Report, had similarly long held that the Wisconsin Senate race was in the “Lean Democrat” category, but last month shifted its rating to a “Toss up,” citing a closing polling gap between the candidates. 

SEE IT: WISCONSIN DAIRY FARMER SAYS ‘NO QUESTION’ TRUMP ADMIN WAS ‘MUCH BETTER’ THAN BIDEN-HARRIS

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde arrives to speak at a rally hosted by President Trump on April 2, 2024, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

A source familiar confirmed to Fox News Digital in October that Baldwin’s internal polling had shown the candidates within the margin of error. 

Baldwin ran unopposed in the Democrats’ Senate primary and Hovde avoided a competitive primary with no prominent opponents in the Republican race. 

During the campaign, Baldwin attacked the Republican for his business ventures, highlighting his history as a banker, with one of his financial institutions originating in California. 

Hovde emphasized Baldwin’s lengthy career in Washington, D.C., thus far and the little daylight between her voting record and the policies of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He also stressed that Baldwin and her partner Maria Brisbane, a private wealth adviser, are not married, and that because of this, the senator avoids having to disclose her financial information and any potential conflicts of interest. 

WISCONSIN SENATE RACE SHIFTS TO ‘TOSS UP’ BY HANDICAPPER AS TAMMY BALDWIN FIGHTS FOR RE-ELECTION

Sen. Tammy Baldwin speaks during the WisDems state convention on June 8, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for The Democratic Party of Wisconsin)

Baldwin earned the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation Board of Directors in early October, a notable achievement in the rural state. The group also referenced its endorsements of two Republican congressmen, Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Tom Tiffany.

“Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany support Wisconsin agriculture through engaging directly with the farming community in their districts,” said WFBF President Brad Olson in a statement. 

A woman dons a cheese hat with an American flag on it in Wisconsin. (Reuters)

“Wisconsin Farm Bureau looks forward to working with Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany as they work on behalf of Wisconsin farmers,” he said. “Each have demonstrated strong support for policies that tackle the critical challenges faced by farmers and the agricultural industry, including securing crop insurance, expanding policies that open up markets for American agricultural products and advancing agricultural research and innovation.”

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.