Who: Detroit Red Wings (38-32-8, 84points, 5th place Atlantic Division) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (36-30-12, 84 points, 5th place Metropolitan Division)

When: 7 p.m. ET

How to Watch: Sportsnet Pittsburgh, Bally Sports Detroit, streaming on ESPN+

Pens’ Path Ahead: The Pens stay at home to host Boston Saturday night for an 8pm start, and then Nashville comes to the ‘Burgh on Monday night for the last home regular season game of the year. After that on Wednesday April 17th is a road game @NYI for the final scheduled game of the year.

Opponent Track: It’s been a rollercoaster season for the Red Wings, who suffered a terrible March to fall back to the pack and are only 2-2-0 in April in crunch time. That includes a possible back-breaking 2-1 loss in Washington on Tuesday night that puts Detroit into big time desperation mode with playoff chances dwindling. And while 2-1 sounds like a close game, the Red Wings tacked on their goal with just over a second to play to avoid being shutout on a night where everyone knew their season was on the line.

Season Series: Pittsburgh won 6-3 back a few weeks ago on Mar 17th. Their season didn’t really take off from that point, but it was an important outburst to show they weren’t completely cooked yet. It was a balanced game where Sidney Crosby, Lars Eller, Reilly Smith and Valtteri Puustinen all registered 1G+1A….The Red Wings took an identical 6-3 win way back on October 18th in the season’s early days.

Getting to know the Red Wings

Potential lines (from practice yesterday)

FORWARDS

David Perron – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond

Alex DeBrincat – JT Compher – Patrick Kane

Robby Fabbri – Joe Veleno – Daniel Sprong

Zach Aston-Reese – Austin Czarnik – Christian Fischer

DEFENSEMEN

Ben Chiarot / Moritz Seider

Simon Edvinsson / Jeff Petry

Olli Maatta / Shayne Gostisbehere

Goalies: Alex Lyon, James Remier (Ville Husso on conditioning stint)

Possible scratches: Andrew Copp (broken cheekbone) Jake Walman, Justin Holl, Michael Rasmussen (injured)

IR: none

—NHL teams almost always play it coy with injury designations (“Undisclosed”, “lower/upper body”, and so on) but Detroit coach Derek Lalonde had no problems quickly telling the world in his post-game press conference Tuesday night that Andrew Copp suffered a broken cheekbone on an uncalled high-stick by the Capitals. No coincidence in timing at a crucial moment to let such detail get out there for the world to know. (If that was Pittsburgh in, say December, Copp would have been “undergoing evaluations” for three days before any sort of meaningful update was provided!)

—Former Penguin Zach Aston-Reese was recalled after the news of Copp’s injury. Aston-Reese has only played one NHL game this season, spending most of his time with AHL Grand Rapids this year.

Player stats

(via hockeydb)

—It’s always funny (and surprisingly frequent) for NHL teams when the guy who by far is the highest paid and there to be the number one goalie is the lowest performing one. The Penguins can’t laugh too hard since they’re in the same boat all of a sudden, but Husso still has one more year left on a contract that pays him a $4.75m cap hit.

—Even if the Red Wings don’t make it this year, they can take some comfort in the continued emergence of Lucas Raymond as a top-line NHL player. The fourth overall pick back in 2020, Raymond has set career-highs in goals, assists and points in his third NHL campaign.

—Detroit has been incredibly healthy across the board this season, 12 regulars have played in almost every game. However, the mid-season absence of Larkin (for 14 games) might prove to be the difference in their season. The Red Wings’ slide and stumble was a big deal without their captain and best player.

The biggest game of the year* (*so far)

It’s almost absurd how meaningful this game has turned out to be. According to MoneyPuck, the Penguins’ playoff chances have a 45% swing if the game ends in regulation, depending on which way the game ends.

Massive to think there could be an 18.6% chance to make the playoffs or a 62.1% chance (or somewhere in between if the game goes to OT), just based off the outcome of one game — but here we are. An OT loss wouldn’t be the absolute worst thing in the world as compared to a regulation, but does some damage. A win and especially a regulation win sets Pittsburgh’s season up to continue playing these hugely important games.

Here’s the HockeyViz outlook

And now for the Pens

Projected lines

FORWARDS

Drew O’Connor – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust

Michael Bunting – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell

Reilly Smith – Lars Eller/Radim Zohorna – Valtteri Puustinen

Jesse Puljujarvi – Jeff Carter – Emil Bemstrom

DEFENSEMEN

P.O. Joseph / Kris Letang

Marcus Pettersson / Erik Karlsson

Ryan Shea / Jack St. Ivany

Goalies: Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry

Potential Scratches: John Ludvig, Ryan Graves (concussion)

IR: Matt Nieto (knee surgery), Jansen Harkins (hand injury), Noel Acciari (lower body injury)

—Lars Eller missed practice yesterday after the teams was off on Tuesday, reportedly sick. Could be something to monitor for today, but might as well use the time available for rest after 78 tough games.

—Sam Poulin has been coming up to the NHL in recent days as the extra forward, but it switched to Radim Zohorna yesterday. Zohorna hasn’t played an NHL game since Jan 15th, and might get shuffled back to the AHL before the game for roster purposes if there’s not an injury, but it is interesting that it’s Big Z and not Poulin now as the swing NHL/AHL forward at this moment

—No official word on goalies, but it shouldn’t even be a question at this point who will play tonight. No reason to give Jarry his first start in 20 days, Nedeljkovic has been the workhorse and one of the main reasons the Pens have an important Game No. 79.

Buckling down

Bryan Rust talked yesterday about the team’s turnaround

Milestones ‘n more

Games

• Erik Karlsson is slated to play in career game No. 999 tonight

Goals

• Evgeni Malkin is up to 496 career goals
• Jeff Carter is one goal shy of the 10-goal plateau on the season. If he gets there it’ll be the 19th time in his career to accomplish that, something only 25 other players in NHL history have done

Assists

• Sidney Crosby (998) is two assists away from becoming the seventh fastest player (in terms of games played) from reaching the 1,000 mark
• Malkin has 796 career assists
• Reilly Smith has 298 career assists
• Bryan Rust has 197 career assists

Points

• Sidney Crosby (1,588 points) is twopoints away from tying Phil Esposito (1,590) for 10th in all-time NHL scoring
• With 86 points on the season, Crosby is looking for his eighth career 90+ point season
• Michael Bunting has 49 points on the season split between CAR and PIT, looking for his second career 50+ point year
• Kris Letang is one point away from his seventh career 50+ point season

Goalie

• Tristan Jarry is one win away from his fifth straight 20+ win season