The Detroit Tigers (27-39) and Minnesota Twins (35-33) open up a 4-game set Thursday at Target Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Minnesota won 11-8 last season.
The Tigers have lost 11 of 12 games in their roughest stretch of the season. They managed to take 1 game from the Atlanta Braves Monday but lost 10-7 and 6-5 in a doubleheader Wednesday. The Tigers are surprisingly 11-8 in 1-run games and 9-7 within the AL Central.
The Twins have won 4 of 5 contests after dropping 5 straight from June 3-8. They sit 3 1/2 games in front of the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central. Minnesota is 12-8 within the division and 20-14 at home.
Tigers at Twins projected starters
LHP Matthew Boyd vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Boyd (3-5, 5.55 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 58 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K Saturday against Arizona Diamondbacks
- Last 5 starts vs. Twins: 2-3, 5.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 40 K in 31 IP
Gray (4-1, 2.25 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 72 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- Last 5 starts vs. Detroit: 3-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 30 K in 25 2/3 IP
Tigers at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Twins -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-120) | Twins -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Tigers at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Tigers 2
Moneyline
Gray has been one of the best pitchers in the league with the 3rd-ranked 2.25 ERA. He just hasn’t gone too deep into games and has not won a game in his last 7 starts. That shouldn’t be the case here as he has gone at least 6 innings in his last 3 starts against Detroit.
PASS on the moneyline and take SONNY GRAY OVER 17.5 TOTAL OUTS (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins are 35-33 on the RL and 16-18 at home. I’d want a better return than -105 if we’re taking a risk with that data.
It’s a big ballpark, and neither team is really an Over team. Head to the Win/Total section and take TWINS AND UNDER 9.5 TOTAL RUNS (+120).
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Over/Under
As mentioned, these teams aren’t Over teams. The Twins are just 28-37-3 O/U on the season. The wind is blowing in at 10 mph from left-center field.
The Under has cashed in the last 5 meetings between these sides in Minnesota and is 5-0-1 in the last 6 overall between them.
It’s a small number, but we’ll LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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