Breaking down Detroit Tigers’ payroll and why they should sign major free agent pitcher

DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers have an exceptionally low payroll heading into 2024 and should be active in trying to land a major free agent starting pitcher.

Detroit Tigers payroll details

There are only five players on the Tigers’ roster who are on guaranteed post-arbitration contracts for the 2024 season:

• Javier Baez — $25 million

• Kenta Maeda — $14 million

• Mark Canha — $11.5 million

• Andrew Chafin — $4.25 million

• Carson Kelly — $3.5 million

That adds up to $58.25 million — $29.75 million of which has been added this offseason through the Canha trade and the Maeda and Chafin signings.

The Tigers also have four players who are eligible for arbitration for the first time. Here are their projected earnings for 2024:

• Tarik Skubal — $2.6 million

• Jake Rogers — $2 million

• Akil Baddoo — $1.7 million

• Casey Mize — $1.2 million

That’s an additional $7.5 million, bringing the total to $65.75 million. Add the $8 million from Miguel Cabrera’s buyout and the Tigers are at $73.75.

The rest of Detroit’s roster will presumably make around the league minimum of $740,000 next season — we’ll call it $12.58 million total for the other 17 players to round out the 26-man roster.

Theoretically, that would give the Tigers a final payroll of $86.33 million, as of this moment.

According to Sportrac, the league average payroll for 2024 is expected to be around $122.6 million.

Why Tigers need another starting pitcher

The Tigers already signed Maeda this offseason, but they need to add another starter if they want to build off a solid 2023 season.

This rebuild was supposed to be led by young starting pitchers, but that plan has crumbled due to injuries and busts.

Mize missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, and Matt Manning has dealt with a slew of injuries since breaking into the league in 2021. Both former first-round picks have been underwhelming when they actually take the mound, too.

If you look at the four-year span from 2015-2018, the Tigers took right-handed starting pitchers with their first pick in each of those drafts — Beau Burrows, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Casey Mize — and have gotten very little production out of that group.

The only young pitcher from the rebuild who has realized his full potential is Skubal — a budding ace who will anchor the rotation in 2024.

If the Tigers don’t make another move, the rotation will probably look like this on Opening Day:

• Tarik Skubal

• Kenta Maeda

• Matt Manning

• Reese Olson

• Casey Mize/Sawyer Gipson-Long

Look, there’s some upside on the back end of that group, but it’s not good enough to realistically compete for a playoff spot, even in the AL Central.

Also, think of the injury risk. Coming off a season in which the organization’s depth was decimated by injuries, Scott Harris should make depth at this position a priority.

Skubal missed half of last year due to a major injury he suffered in 2022. His career high in innings is 149.1, and he’s not going to be allowed to go from 80.1 innings to 180 innings this upcoming season.

Mize hasn’t stepped on a mound since April 14, 2022. How can he be counted on to last a full season?

Manning’s injury woes are well-documented. He came into each of the past two seasons as a member of the Opening Day rotation and lasted only 63 and 78 innings.

Even Maeda carries some risk. He missed all of 2022, returned for the start of 2023, and then immediately went back on the injured list for two months.

Economics of signing another starting pitcher

So far, three high-end starting pitchers have agreed to contracts during this round of free agency:

• Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals for $25 million per year.

• Aaron Nola signed with the Phillies for $24.6 million per year.

• Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Diamondbacks for $20 million per year.

A contract of this annual value would bring the Tigers’ payroll up to around $110 million — still more than $10 million below the estimated league average. So the Tigers can absolutely afford to make this type of deal (and more).

With reports that Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto might command $300 million, the Tigers are probably priced out of that bidding war. But there are a couple other attractive options available.

Free agent pitchers to target

I don’t think the Tigers should break the bank for Blake Snell, who has battled inconsistency throughout his career. Marcus Stroman also comes with some legitimate warning signs.

But someone like Rangers postseason hero Jordan Montgomery might be worth targeting. Montgomery had an excellent run in Texas after the deadline, but his career numbers probably won’t command a contract as large as Snell or Nola.

Montgomery is a lot like Rodriguez: a veteran left-hander who doesn’t overpower hitters but reliably gets the job done. He’s made 30 or more starts each of the past three seasons and maintained his consistency — which is exactly what the Tigers need to stabilize their young rotation.

A wildcard the Tigers have been rumored to have interest in is Japanese starter Shota Imanaga, who dominated the JPCL last year to the tune of a 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 10.6 strikeouts per nine.

Imanaga is 30 years old and less dominant than Yamamoto, but his track record in Japan suggests he could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation lefty.

If they miss out on the upper tier, the Tigers could still shoot for a little upside and gamble on someone like Frankie Montas, who missed all but one start in 2023 due to injury.

Montas will probably sign a short-term “prove it” deal coming off a lost season, and the Tigers would be on the hook for less of a financial investment. He was excellent in 2021 and 2022, striking out 349 batters in 331.1 innings while posting a 3.67 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP.

Chris Fetter is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of middling pitchers. Michael Lorenzen made the All-Star Game in 2023. Beau Brieske overachieved in 2022. Wily Peralta was a revelation in 2021.

James Paxton could be another worthy gamble on a short-term deal. He returned from injury and posted a 3.34 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP through his first 13 starts this season before running out of gas in August. He struck out 80 batters in 70 innings with a 14% swinging strike rate in that span.