Cleveland, OH
The Cleveland Guardians are the Luckiest Team in Major League Baseball
It’s August 18 and the Minnesota Twins are in the middle of an extremely successful summer. At 70-53, the only thing between the Twins and an American League playoff berth would be a meltdown of the most epic fashion. The type of late season collapse that would go directly to the top of Minnesota sports history books.
But more than likely, this is a playoff team. Entering Sunday, the Twins sit two games up on the 2nd AL Wildcard spot and 4.5 games up on Boston, the only team not currently in the playoff field, who still stands a chance.
2024 American League playoff picture has a lot of AL Central in it
Meanwhile, the American League Central Division race is far from over. The Twins trail the Cleveland Guardians by just two games. The Royals, who hold the third and final AL Wildcard spot, are just four games back.
AL Central
W
L
W-L%
GB
Guardians
72
51
.585
—
Twins
70
53
.569
2.0
Royals
68
55
.553
4.0
Tigers
60
64
.484
12.5
White Sox
30
94
.242
42.5
If the Minnesota Twins Can Just Limp to the Regular Season Finish Line…
| AL Wildcard | W | L | W-L% | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles (WC1) | 72 | 52 | .581 | +3.5 |
| Twins (WC2) | 70 | 53 | .569 | +2 |
| Royals (WC3) | 68 | 55 | .553 | – |
| Red Sox | 65 | 57 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Mariners | 63 | 61 | .508 | 5.5 |
The Minnesota Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning five of their last six games, including three straight vs the Texas Rangers (going for four) this weekend. Kansas City, winners of three straight, haven’t been bad either (other than losing two of three to the Twins last week). Their division rival Cleveland Guardians, on the other hand, have lost nine of their last 14, including losses in their last two games.
Cleveland Guardians are lucky, Minnesota Twins (surprise) are not…
And if luck charts tells us anything, the Guardians will either enter the 2024 MLB postseason as the luckiest team in all of baseball, or they are due for one of those major league caliber late-season meltdowns I mentioned earlier in this article.
According to one MLB simulator’s “Pot O’ Gold” chart, there is no more fortunate team in the league than the one playing home games in Cleveland, OH. The Twins, meanwhile, rank as the 8th unluckiest team. Shocker.
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest#MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball pic.twitter.com/0EhYxrVnFX
— MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator) August 18, 2024
The funniest (maybe saddest?) part about this chart is that it does not factor in player injuries. This is about teams that get on base off balls in play that they should not reach base on, vs those that can’t buy a hit, even when they hit pee rockets off the bat.
The Twins Were Right About Joe Ryan’s Injury
One of the reasons why Cleveland has been so good this season is because they’ve remained remarkably healthy. All of their big hitters and most of their best pitchers have been available for almost the entirety of the 2024 summer. As we all know, that has not been the case in Minnesota.
If the Twins can continue to play well, and get some of their best players back, it appears very likely they could pass the Guardians in the Central, which would more than likely mean a first round bye in the playoffs.
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