Noah Rogers’ transfer latest evidence of fool’s gold in Ohio State football recruiting rankings

COLUMBUS, Ohio — If you wonder why Ohio State football’s elite recruiting rankings have left the program vulnerable to results like the Cotton Bowl debacle, look no further than Noah Rogers’ entry to the NCAA transfer portal.

Rogers, the No. 53 player in the 2023 class per the 247 Sports composite, became the second former four-star freshman receiver to enter the portal Sunday. Bryson Rodgers (No. 357) beat him there by a few hours.

The same dynamic played out last April. Kaleb Brown (No. 79) and Caleb Burton (No. 132) waited until the spring after their freshman season to move on. That makes four of the elite receiver prospects which annually prop up the program’s recruiting rankings who left the program in the past nine months.

It is possible none of those receivers will be missed, production-wise. Receivers leaving the program because tend to do so to avoid being compressed between the established options ahead of them and the talents arriving in the next class.

Or perhaps Rogers and Rodgers’ decisions had nothing to do with five-stars Jeremiah Smith, who enrolls this month, and Mylan Graham, who arrives in the summer. These certainly would not be the first players from southern or western states who played sparingly as freshmen and left quickly.

In terms of talent retention in the receiver room, this result is, if not calculated by Ryan Day and Brian Hartline, then at least tolerated. Carnell Tate’s 292 snaps this season were almost five times as many as the other three true freshman receivers combined (62).

These departures, though, reinforce why, for the past two recruiting cycles, analysis of signing classes ranked No. 4 and 6 nationally, respectively, focused significant attention on what they did not contain.

At some point, that third and fourth top-200 receiver in each class starts to mean less and less when other position groups settle for one — if any.

Offensive line remains the biggest culprit, with only one top-150 signee from outside the state of Ohio in the past three classes. That prospect, Ian Moore, comes from offensive line coach Justin Frye’s home state — the Buckeyes’ neighbor to the west, Indiana.

Compared to that track record, things are exploding in defensive line recruiting. Even with recent transfer departures, it has five players on the roster or in the 2024 signing class who fit that top-150, out-of-state description.

James Peoples, ranked No. 95 in the 247 Sports composite for the 2024 class, was the first top-100 signee at the position since 2021. The only top 100 safety commit in the past three cycles is Sonny Styles, a legacy from nearby Pickerington who can probably draw you a map of Buckeye Grove by memory.

Linebackers signed since Jim Knowles entered the program tend to come from in-state and outside the top 200. In the case of Arvell Reese, some may not even stay at linebacker long-term.

The full-class recruiting rankings — especially those which prioritize total score over average star rating — are not yet obsolete. Yet in the free transfer era, they are more temporary and incomplete than ever.

Which is not to say Hartline should change his recruiting approach. Keep loading up that room and letting competition push the best talent into the lineup.

Maybe he needs to open the rotation up more, at least in non-conference or less talent-equated games. On the other hand, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka did not need big freshman-year work loads to justify sticking around to become among the most productive receivers in the country.

For the rest of us, though, remember that third and fourth receiver in every signing class may never log his first reception as a Buckeye. Even if he sticks around, unless he can also stand up a defensive end or stop up a running back coming through the hole, his actual impact on the signing class may come from ratings points only.