New Mexico vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

No. 2 seed Michigan State pulled away from No. 15 seed Bryant to set up a second round matchup against No. 10 seed New Mexico, who pulled the minor upset in the first round against No. 7 seed New Mexico. 

We have a high level guard matchup between Donovan Dent of New Mexico and Michigan State freshman Jase Richardson with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. Can the Lobos continue its run in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night? 

Here’s our betting preview for this one. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New Mexico

Donovan Dent: The Mountain West Player of the Year had a slow start against Marquette, but made plenty of clutch plays to secure the victory on Friday night. The eighth highest scorer in the country at nearly 21 points per game, Dent also averages more than six assists as he will look to out-duel the Spartans on Sunday. 

Michigan State

Jase Richardson: The freshman has continued to take on more of a role as the season continued, and he had a strong showing in his NCAA Tournament, scoring 15 points with three rebounds and two assists. Can the dynamic guard continue to improve with each passing game?

These two teams profile similar to one another, paced by elite defense and a knack for dominating the rebounding battle. 

Both clubs are far more potent on offense when in transition, but that is what each defense does a phenomenal job at, forcing teams to operate in the halfcourt. We saw New Mexico limit Marquette’s ability to run in the first round victory, and I can see the group doing a similar job in this one as Michigan State has been a middling shooting group all season. 

The Spartans are 150th in the country in effective field goal percentage, but have done an excellent job on the glass all year long, ranking second nationally in rebounding percentage. However, the Lobos are sturdy on the glass as well, 53rd nationally, and exceptional on the defensive glass, 19th in defensive rebounding rate. 

Neither team is a strong three-point shooting group, and both want to force the issue inside, New Mexico is 163rd in three-point percentage while Michigan State is 316th. So, both teams try to get to the rim, but both defenses profile as elite interior outfits on that side of the ball. 

All of this is to say, I believe that each team is forced to play in the half court and struggle to find its shots, keeping this game under the total after both did the same in the first round. 

PICK: UNDER 147.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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