More lake-effect snow on its way: How much can you expect? And when will Lake Erie freeze?

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Cities from Cleveland to Ashtabula have been experiencing more snow on Thursday as lake effect snow continues to dump on Northeast Ohio.

The National Weather Service forecasts up to 10 additional inches of lake-effect snow in the region from Thursday through early Friday morning.

Forecasts expect Ashtabula County to continue being the most affected. Other higher-terrain areas can also expect more snow, including all of Geauga County, southern Lake, eastern and southern Cuyahoga, northern Summit and northern Portage counties.

Lake effect snows occurs when cold air moves across Lake Erie’s warm waters, collecting water along the way and then dumping it once land is reached. Lake and Ashtabula counties, both north and east of Cleveland, are often right in the path for the worst of it.

The weather phenomenon ends when Lake Erie freezes over, although the last instance of it freezing by more than 90% was in 2022. Additionally, it’s historically too early for the lake to do so.

“Winter technically hasn’t even started,” said Dave Marsalek, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Cleveland. Winter officially begins Dec. 21.

“The earliest the lake freezes is the end of November, but it typically freezes in January and February,” Marsalek said.

For the lake to freeze, temperatures need to be consistently cold, so the surface temperature of Lake Erie can drop to the mid-30s. Right now, some of the shallow waters near Sandusky have reached that range, but the water near Cleveland is still in the 40-degree range.

The water will likely not get a chance to freeze before it warms up again. While there have been some days in the 30-degree temperature range and below, forecasts for early next week have high temperatures in the 50s.

For safety, the weather service advises drivers to keep a flashlight, food, and water in their vehicle in case of an emergency.

Snow also occurred early Thursday morning, although this was due to an Arctic front and an associate snow squall.

Overnight, the most snow was seen by snow spotters in Geauga County – in Russell Center, with 8 inches by 7 a.m. and 7 inches in Troy Township by 7:30 a.m.

Ashtabula County saw 6.2 inches in Monroe Center by 8:15 a.m. and Summit County saw 5.7 inches in Sagamore Hills by 8 a.m.

In Cuyahoga County, 5 inches was reported in Russell Center at 7:30 a.m. and 4 inches in Chagrin Falls at 9 a.m. Lake County saw 3.2 inches in Concord by 8:30 a.m. Areas of Lorain, Medina and Portage counties saw an inch or less of snow.

In addition, strong winds pushed the water in Lake Erie eastward, exposing the bottom of the lake in shallow areas near Sandusky, Marsalek said. By Thursday afternoon, water levels mostly returned to normal as the wind direction shifted.

A similar but more severe instance of this phenomenon occurred during the winter storm that occurred near Christmas in 2022. During that storm, 12 hours of 60 mph winds cleared out much more of the most western part of Lake Erie.

Zachary Smith is the data reporter for cleveland.com. You can reach him at zsmith@cleveland.com.