Cleveland, OH
For Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, bet on a defense, and 2 touchdown makers: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Buckeyes’
CLEVELAND, Ohio – The Ohio State vs. Notre Dame football game is Saturday night at 7:30, and I think people are excited for this game, excited to have some action on it as well.
I spent Thursday afternoon kind of combing through DraftKings and FanDuel to see what kind of piqued my interest because as I’ve talked about before, there’s generally not a ton of value betting just the game side or the game total in these high-profile games.
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I would lean to Ohio State -3. This is actually as close as I’m going to get to betting Ohio State laying points. I project the game at 5 1/2.
But the angle that I’m going to take is I’m going to take the Notre Dame team total under 26.5. I project them at 25 points, which in football scoring probably is going to be more like 24.
I think there’s this perception that Ohio State hasn’t played anybody and somehow because Notre Dame played Navy on national TV and played at N.C. State that that’s somehow that much better than what Ohio State’s done.
Now, I will say, by my numbers N.C. State is the best opponent that either of these teams have played. No doubt about it, though, you know, the great thing about my model is I can adjust and grade performances according to how good or bad a team is.
And I tweeted earlier that Youngstown State is better than Central Michigan, which Notre Dame beat 41-17 last week. They’re better than Oklahoma State. So I say that to put it into context.
If Ohio State had beaten Oklahoma State 35-7, everyone would be like, “Man, Ohio State is awesome.” But because of the name on the jersey was Youngstown State. And they’re an Football Championship Subdivision team, and just because people aren’t familiar with it, they just dismiss it. And the numbers don’t indicate that’s accurate at this point.
Keep in mind that Ohio State was trying to figure out the quarterback situation in the first two games. So the offense wasn’t smooth or in a rhythm. And I don’t even think the quarterbacks knew who was going to be the guy from series to series.
Last week that wasn’t the case. You don’t want to make too much of one game, but I did think there was a noticeable difference in just the rhythm that the offense had with Kyle McCord understanding that he’s the guy. And I think he played better.
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Getting back to the point here, I think this is the low point of the Ohio State stock. I often talk about betting in terms of being a day trader. I’m buying the Ohio State stock this week because I think after this week it’s going to go back to a premium price and it’s going to be hard to find value on Ohio State moving forward.
So that’s best bet No. 1.
Best bet No. 2: So I found some props here that, you know, Mayan Williams for all intents and purposes, is the No. 3 back. Now, I know Ryan Day didn’t want to go that far this week when reporters talked to him, but one thing that Mayan Williams does is he’s a touchdown vulture, and when they get in the red zone, he’s the guy that they force feed.
So FanDuel had Miyan Williams anytime touchdown at +210 odds. I think Ohio State is going to be able to move the ball. And I think when they get in the red zone, Miyan Williams is probably the guy they’re going to turn to because he’s shown a propensity to be able to punch those things in the end zone. So at two to one odds here, I really like that.
No. 3: Ohio State is my No. 2-ranked defense now in the country behind only Georgia. And using just the on-field data, opponent-adjusted accounting for the fact that they’ve played who they’ve played, Ohio State would be the No. 1 defense in the country.
I’ve watched all of Notre Dame’s games except Tennessee State, but I do think they’re going to have a hard time scoring. So we’ve got our Notre Dame team total under. I like Sam Hartman under 1.5 touchdown passes at +135 odds.
I think Denzel Burke is playing at an All-America level, at the very least an All-Big Ten level, at corner right now. As long as Lathan Ransom and Josh Proctor are healthy and playing their roles, I think this Notre Dame team is going to have a hard time putting points on the board. And I really struggle to see a scenario where they score 27+ on Ohio State. So I’m going to take Sam Hartman under one and a half touchdown passes here.
Best bet No. 4: All right, we were 2-0 last week. Marvin Harrison cashed our over-99 receiving yards in the second quarter. So that was a nice sweat-free win for us.
I’m going back to Harrison here, but not in a receiving yards capacity: Marvin Harrison Jr. to score 2+ touchdowns is +380.
This is a game I’m not sure that Harrison is going to have maybe a ton of yards. I think maybe Emeka Egbuka gets those out of the slot more.
But I do think this is a scenario where Harrison is going to be able to dominate in the red zone, similar to kind of how he did in that Utah Rose Bowl was kind of how I envision it, kind of his coming-out party. He had three touchdowns. I didn’t go that bold with the three-plus touchdowns, but I do think he can score twice here and at +380. I’ll take a gamble on it.
As for my game prediction, I’m going to go Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 24. So that’s an Ohio State cover and right at the over that’s currently set right now. No real play on the total.
But like I said, when you think of game script and how the game might go, I think there’s multiple ways the game can go and we still cash a lot of these bets. The scenario of Notre Dame scoring a bunch and it being a shootout and Ohio State not covering, I don’t see that scenario out there.
I think if Notre Dame is going to keep this competitive, they’re going to have to keep this thing, try to keep it in the 20s or below. I don’t think they have a chance to win a shootout.
National bets
Ole Miss plus-7 at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS.
Florida State minus-2 at Clemson, noon on ABC.
T Shoe’s 2023 record on picks to date
Ohio State bets: 3-2
Best Bets: 1-5
Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.
The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted.
Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..
Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.
This season, he will share his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Buckeyes”
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