Final shot of midwinter chill, flurries before warmup takes hold: forecast

CLEVELAND, Ohio — A final shot of midwinter chill will hang on across Northeast Ohio on Thursday before a significant warmup takes hold heading into the weekend and early next week.

Light lake-enhanced snow and flurries will persist across far Northeast Ohio through the day, though impacts are expected to remain minimal.

Across the Ohio snowbelt — including Geauga County eastward — accumulation should remain spotty and generally under a half-inch, according to the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

High pressure building east from the western Great Lakes will gradually dry out the atmosphere, limiting moisture and keeping most communities to little more than occasional flurries.

Farther west, drier air and even intervals of sunshine are expected.

High temperatures Thursday will run slightly below normal for mid-February, generally topping out near 30 degrees. Overnight lows will dip into the teens as skies partially clear.

Warming trend begins Friday

Friday marks the transition to a milder pattern. Clouds will gradually give way to more sunshine, and temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s — closer to seasonal averages.

From there, the pattern flips.

Upper-level ridging will expand across the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week, sending temperatures well above normal. Highs are expected to reach the low 40s Saturday and Sunday before climbing into the 40s Monday and potentially surpassing 50 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid to upper 30s.

Snowmelt, rising water and ice jam concerns

The extended stretch of mild air will accelerate snowmelt across the region, with temperatures climbing well above normal into early next week.

Most of the current snowpack contains roughly an inch or less of liquid water, though isolated areas could release closer to 2 inches as it melts. With limited precipitation expected over the next several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated. However, gradual rises on rivers are likely.

Thick river ice remains in place across parts of the region, and forecasters caution that ice jams could develop as melting and thermal breakup begin. Residents are encouraged to clear storm drains of snow and debris to help reduce localized ponding as runoff increases.

Aside from a small chance of light rain Sunday — mainly across southern counties — conditions are expected to remain largely dry until the middle of next week, when another system may bring rain along a warm front.