Cleveland, OH
2 good bets on Ohio State vs. W. Kentucky that don’t involve the point spread: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Buckeyes’
COLUMBUS, Ohio – So I am being asked if there was a way I thought about this Ohio State football team coming into the season, and how much of that has changed after the first two weeks of the year.
It’s a good question.
So my Ohio State power rating has decreased from 28.1 to 21.6, a 6 1/2-point downgrade in their power rating just through two weeks. And some of that is now I’ve got my FCS ratings like we talked about last week, so I’m able to properly quantify that performance against Youngstown State.
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I’ve got the game grades here, which is basically my rating for, “How many points above or below FBS average was your performance?” And I do that for both sides of the ball.
So Ohio State’s offensive grade against Indiana was minus-5.3. I went back and looked and that’s only 1 1/2 points worse than the Northwestern game from last year, which was played in hurricane-like conditions.
So to put that into perspective: How bad was the Buckeyes’ offensive performance on paper in that Indiana game? It was almost as bad as the 2022 Northwestern game.
The defense, though, has been great. The defense had a positive 16 rating in the Indiana game. And then in the Youngstown State game, the offense again barely above FBS average at 0.7, but the defense 12.6.
So the defense is really saving the power rating. If the defense had the same rating from last year, I mean, Ohio State, I’ve got them No. 7 now overall they would be well outside the top 10 for sure.
I do expect the Buckeye offense to get back on track now.
I think had Kyle McCord played every snap of the season so far, I think Ohio State’s power rating and their offensive rating would be much, much higher because they just looked and performed so much better with him at the helm. So I think now that he’s settled in as the starter, doesn’t have to look over his shoulder and is going to play the majority of the snaps, I do expect the offensive rating and then therefore the overall power rating to increase for them here as the season goes on.
Betting Ohio State vs. W. Kentucky
I project this game minus-27 for Ohio State, which is about where it opened, but has been bet up to 29, 29 1/2 some places.
I started Ohio State this season with my No. 1 projected offense and that’s now dropped to No. 10. However, the defense was like barely in the top 20 or top 25 and now that’s up to No. 7.
I think I would stay away from the side here in this game until we get a better handle on them, maybe after next week. But I do expect their numbers to kind of normalize and I think the numbers will have a much better handle on them here in a week or two.
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Honestly, you know, sometimes in games like this where it’s against kind of a no-name team, I think Ohio State kind of gets inflated a little bit.
I actually think, at least from what I’ve seen in the media and on Twitter and stuff, I think people are almost giving too much respect to Western Kentucky at this point. I think it’s gone the other way where I think some media may have OSU fans like, ‘Oh my God, are we going to maybe lose to Western Kentucky or is this going to be a one-score game?’
And I don’t think that’s going to be the case at all.
In fact, my Ohio State bet for this week would be to take the Western Kentucky team total under 17 1/2.
If you find it at 17, I would probably still take it. Obviously don’t like it as much if you can’t get the 17 1/2, but I think the defense is going to suffocate them. I think Denzel Burke and the corners have been excellent, albeit against not nearly as good passing attacks as Western Kentucky has.
But like I said, I think it’s been a little bit overblown at this point. If Western Kentucky is able to sling it all over Ohio State and put points on the board, I will be surprised. I think they’re going to score 14 or less in this game. So I would take the Western Kentucky team total under 17 or better.
Best bets
You can get Marvin Harrison Jr. over 99 1/2 receiving yards at -114 odds.
I think if last week was any indication, Ryan Day and Kyle McCord want to feed him. Western Kentucky is not going to be able to slow him down at all, and if he doesn’t get 100 yards. I will be shocked.
So I think I would take him over 99 1/2 receiving yards at -114 odds.
Bets around the country
I’m taking Florida Atlantic plus-25 vs Clemson
And Cincinnati minus-14 vs Miami (Ohio)
T Shoe’s 2023 record on picks to date
Ohio State bets: 1-2
Best Bets: 1-3
Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.
The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted.
Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..
Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.
This season, he is sharing his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Buckeyes”
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