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Technology And 10-Year Notes: When Fintech And Finance Meet

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Technology And 10-Year Notes: When Fintech And Finance Meet

In an all-encompassing interview with Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the Trump administration’s strategic focus on maintaining low 10-year Treasury yields. This approach marks a significant shift in economic and fiscal policy, which previously focused almost exclusively on pushing the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate.

Since the Fed began cutting interest rates in September 2024, 10-year Treasury note yields spiked from 3.6% in September to almost 4.8% in January. In the month since the last Non-Farm Payrolls report and the change in administration, yields have rallied by 30 basis points (bps), signifying increased demand.

Since taking office in January, the Trump administration has taken significant steps to demonstrate a commitment to strengthening U.S. leadership in innovating financial technologies. His crypto-focused executive order aims to establish regulatory clarity for digital assets and secure America’s position as a global leader in the digital asset economy.

Over the past week, the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee held hearings on the aggressive enforcement actions and regulatory overreach during the Biden Administration. Commonly referred to as Operation Choke Point (OCP) 2.0, industry experts testified about how OCP 2.0 stifled innovation and growth in crypto and other “politically disfavored industries,” by providing little or no regulatory guidance and requests to “pause” banking activities with crypto companies, resulting in debanking.

Regulatory and legislative policy measures that foster innovation in digital financial technologies could work in tandem with fiscal policy to pave a path toward a more efficient U.S. financial system with positive implications for consumers.

The Role of Fiscal Policy

Secretary

Bessent’s comments highlight the importance of long-term interest rates in driving economic stability and growth. While the mainstream financial press focuses much of its attention on the U.S. stock market, the 10-year Treasury note is a cornerstone for the whole U.S. financial system.

The benchmark reflects investors’ sentiments about the U.S. economy’s future and influences everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs. This relationship underscores the importance of maintaining low 10-year yields to support consumer spending and economic growth.

The 10-year note simultaneously serves as a bellwether for sentiment about general global stability. Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, U.S. bonds are considered a “flight to quality” investment. In times of global economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors sell riskier investments to buy U.S. Treasuries.

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Price vs Yield

While stock investors talk about their assets in terms of price, bond mavens speak in terms of yield, which moves inversely to price. While this can be confusing for non-fixed income thinkers, bond markets, like all markets, respond to supply and demand.

Spend enough time on any trading floor and you’ll hear the most logical reason why any asset rallies (for 10-year notes, this means goes up in price, down in yield)– more buyers than sellers.

Innovation in Digital Financial Technologies: Catalysts for Efficiency

During its first month, the Trump administration has taken significant steps to promote innovation in digital financial technologies. Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are at the forefront of FinTech innovation.

Blockchain, a decentralized ledger technology, offers transparency, security, and efficiency in transactions. Cryptocurrencies, built on blockchains, provide new vehicles for digital transactions and financial inclusion.

Correlation Between Innovation and the Bond Market

For many, the correlation between technology innovation and the bond market can be elusive. While experts in both fields can point to the benefits in their own domain, the path to mutual benefit can be longer in duration (bond pun most definitely intended).

Blockchain technology can enhance the transparency and security of financial transactions, reducing the risk of fraud and improving investor confidence. This increased confidence can lead to greater demand for U.S. Treasury securities, including the 10-year note, thereby supporting lower yields.

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The integration of blockchain and cryptocurrencies into the financial system can streamline payment processes, reducing transaction costs and settlement times. This efficiency can enhance liquidity in the financial markets.

Stablecoin development has been one of the fastest growing areas in the field. By mid-2024, there were over 180 stablecoin projects, a 574% increase over three years. Over 98% of the $230 billion stablecoin market is USD-denominated

If USD-denominated stablecoin issuers were aggregated and classified as a single investor, they would be one of the top 15 investors in U.S. Treasuries, somewhere between India and Brazil.

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Increased confidence in the United States and the collateralization of stablecoins with U.S. Treasuries could both be catalysts for increased demand, driving prices higher and yields lower.

In turn, borrowing costs for consumers and corporations would decrease, making it more affordable to purchase homes and other goods and finance major capital expenditures.

The Long Game

Whether it’s technology or Treasuries, the ramifications of policy actions today may take time to manifest themselves. Like their namesake, 10-year Treasury notes reflect market expectations at that point in time. The uncertainty of such a long time horizon is reflected in the term premium, the extra compensation (higher yield) paid to investors for their investment in longer term bonds.

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments are aligned with technology policy mandates and reflect a nuanced understanding of the interconnectedness of fiscal policy, financial innovation, and market dynamics.

By simultaneously encouraging digital financial technologies (cryptocurrency and blockchain) and implementing supportive fiscal policies, the Trump administration aims to create a favorable environment for economic growth driven by innovation. The focus on maintaining low 10-year Treasury yields is a strategic move that can benefit consumers, businesses, and investors alike. As we navigate the complexities of the modern economy, the integration of advanced technologies and sound policy measures will be key to sustaining long-term prosperity.

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Asian stocks rise as US rate hopes soothe nerves after torrid week

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Asian stocks rise as US rate hopes soothe nerves after torrid week
Investors are awaiting the latest US inflation data this week that could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rates (RONALDO SCHEMIDT)

Asian markets mostly rose Monday as fresh hopes for a US interest rate cut provided some calm after last week’s rollercoaster ride fuelled by worries of a tech bubble.

The scramble to snap up all things AI has helped propel equities skywards this year, pushing several companies to records — with chip titan Nvidia last month becoming the first to top $5 trillion.

But investors have grown increasingly fearful that the vast sums pumped into the sector may have been overdone and could take some time to see profits realised, leading to warnings of a possible market correction.

That has been compounded in recent weeks by falling expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates for a third successive time next month as stubbornly high inflation overshadows weakness in the labour market.

However, risk appetite was given a much-needed shot in the arm Friday when New York Fed boss John Williams said he still sees “room for a further adjustment” at the bank’s December 9-10 policy meeting.

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The remarks saw the chances of a cut shoot up to about 70 percent, from 35 percent earlier.

Focus is now on the release this week of the producer price index, which will be one of the last major data points before officials gather, with other key reports postponed or missed because of the government shutdown.

“The reading carries heightened importance following the postponement of October’s personal consumption expenditures report, originally scheduled for 26 November, which removes a key datapoint from policymakers’ assessment framework,” wrote IG market analyst Fabien Yip.

“A substantially stronger-than-expected PPI outcome could reinforce concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched, potentially constraining the Fed’s capacity to reduce rates in December despite recent labour market softening.”

After Wall Street’s rally Friday capped a torrid week for markets, Asia mostly started on the front foot.

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Hong Kong and Seoul jumped more than one percent, while Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Taipei were also well up, though Shanghai and Manila retreated. US futures advanced.

Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

But while the mood is a little less fractious than last week, uncertainty continues to weigh on riskier assets, with bitcoin hovering around $87,000.

While that is up from its seven-month low of $80,553, it is still sharply down from its record $126,200 hit last month.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

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Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 25,568.08

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,829.71

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: UP at 156.70 yen from 156.39 yen on Friday

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Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1515 from $1.1519

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3096 from $1.3107

Euro/pound: UP at 87.92 pence from 87.88 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $57.93 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $62.44 per barrel

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New York – Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 46,245.41 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,539.71 (close)

dan/rsc

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Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You’ll Love at Tax Time

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Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You’ll Love at Tax Time

For many families, the holiday season comes with familiar rituals: untangling last year’s Christmas lights, decorating the tree and rediscovering ornaments we swore we’d organize “better next year.”

Charitable giving should feel just as joyful and natural — but for many households, it’s also a moment when good intentions collide with inefficient habits.

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Aerodrome Finance Hit by ‘Front-End’ Attack, Users Urged to Avoid Main Domain

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Aerodrome Finance Hit by ‘Front-End’ Attack, Users Urged to Avoid Main Domain

Aerodrome Finance, a leading decentralized exchange on Coinbase’s Base network with $400 million in total value locked, was targeted in a front-end attack late Friday, prompting urgent warnings for users to avoid its primary domains.

The incident appears to be a DNS hijacking of Aerodrome’s centralized domains, which allowed attackers to reroute users to lookalike phishing sites designed to trick them into signing malicious wallet transactions to separate them from their funds. Users are advised to instead rely on Aerodrome’s decentralized domains. Aerodrome has asked My.box, the domain provider, to contact them over a potential exploit of their systems.

These attacks do not compromise the underlying smart contracts, which manage user funds and protocol logic on-chain. At the time of writing, it’s unconfirmed whether the attack has led to any losses or how many users have been affected. Liquidity pools and protocol treasuries remain intact, according to Aerodrome.

Aerodrome’s team has been posting real-time updates on X, urging users not to access the compromised domains, aerodrome.finance and aerodrome.box, and instead use decentralized ENS mirrors like aero.drome.eth.limo. To reduce risk, the team recommends revoking recent token approvals using tools like Revoke.cash and avoiding signing any transactions from unverified domains.

New attack

Aerodrome has experienced similar front-end attacks before, including two in late 2023 that resulted in approximately $300,000 in user losses.

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This latest attack comes just days after Aerodrome announced a merger with Velodrome, consolidating liquidity across Base and Optimism under the new “Aero” ecosystem. Despite the disruption, the AERO token price remained stable at around $0.67, up 2% over the last 24 hours.

The investigation is ongoing.

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