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Markets keep the faith – but oil staying above $100 could test that optimism | Nils Pratley

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Markets keep the faith – but oil staying above 0 could test that optimism | Nils Pratley

Was it only at the new year that the fanfare was heard for the FTSE 100 index breaking through 10,000 for the first time? It was – on 2 January – and the index then added another 900 points by the end of February. On Thursday, the Footsie briefly fell below that round number as Iran struck Qatar’s enormous Ras Laffan complex, which normally supplies a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, before closing at 10,063, down 2.3% on the day.

There are two ways to view that price action. One is to say the sharp reversal from the peak represents a necessarily severe reaction to the war on Iran. Another is to conclude that a flat year-to-date return, after a bountiful 20% gain in 2025, suggests stock markets have barely begun to take seriously the inflationary impact if the war lasts many more weeks, or even months, and keeps oil above $100 a barrel.

“Markets are very resilient and complacent, ​and we are a bit surprised about that,” said Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s $2tn (£1.5tn) sovereign wealth fund, earlier this week. Well, quite.

The resilience of companies themselves, as he suggested, is perhaps one explanation. Firms can cut costs and try to pass on increases in input prices. Recent shocks, such as the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, may have forced them to inject greater flexibility into their supply chains. It is still far too early to hear profit warnings. In the case of the Footsie, a size-weighted index, there are also a few big constituents that obviously benefit from higher oil and gas prices: Shell and BP are up 24% and 31% respectively since the new year.

Another explanation is that investors may be right – despite the strike on Ras Laffan – to keep the faith and believe that energy prices will calm down soon. That seems to be the consensus opinion. Bank of America’s closely watched regular poll of fund managers this week found that only 11% expect a barrel of Brent to be over $90 by the end of the year, and the average forecast was just $76.

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That finding, though, also suggests there is plenty of room for expectations to be upset if the energy price shock intensifies. The pass-through effects would be fairly rapid. In a UK context, current oil and gas prices “are already enough to add around 1% to headline inflation in the coming months, while shortages of fertilisers could push food inflation higher later in the year”, reckons David Rees, the head of global economics at the fund manager Schroders.

In the circumstances, the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates was the only one possible. Policymakers are as clueless on the length of the war, and the cost of energy six weeks or six months from now, as stock market investors. The Bank’s messaging was inevitably of the fudged variety. On one hand, it stands “ready to act as necessary” on interest rates to control inflation. On the other, “markets are getting ahead of themselves in assuming rate rises”, said the governor, Andrew Bailey.

But one suspects we won’t have to wait too much longer to see central banks’ real analysis of the inflation risks. If oil stays at $100 for another month, higher interest rates will be the way to bet.

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Finance

Protecting Bolivia’s forest watersheds with sustainable finance

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Protecting Bolivia’s forest watersheds with sustainable finance

Why financing matters for forest restoration 

Over the past several years, Armonía and local communities have made significant progress restoring parts of the Tunari protected area. To date they have planted 1.25 million trees, with more than half of these planted in the Tiquipaya municipality. Community wildfire brigades have been strengthened, reservoirs built to secure water, and new systems created for communities to participate in watershed management.

One of the most important actions was strengthening the structure and function of a watershed governance body, known as Organismo de Gestión de Cuencas (OGC). This coordinates restoration activities and helps design sustainable development strategies for the communities living in the park, helping rebuild trust between them, park authorities and conservation organisations. Women leaders have played an important role in shaping this work. 

However, a major challenge was highlighted – restoration takes decades, but most conservation funding arrives through short-term projects. Without stable long-term financing, restoration gains are difficult to maintain. 

Community members have helped plant more than a million trees in Tiquipaya © Asociación Armonía.

How the financing model would work 

The proposed PES mechanism would collect small contributions directed into a transparent trust fund with independent governance. Resources would then be invested in three main areas: 

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  • Forest restoration and protection – Communities would receive incentives for protecting existing forest and payments tied to successful restoration outcomes. 
  • Community sustainable development – Investments would support livelihood activities that reduce pressure on the forest, such as sustainable agriculture, water management and local enterprises. 
  • Strengthening park management – Funds would help support ranger capacity, wildfire prevention and long-term monitoring within Tunari National Park. 

For communities, the system recognises their role as custodians of the watershed. For urban residents, it offers a practical way to support the ecosystems that provide their water. For public and private partners, it creates a transparent structure for long-term investment in landscape restoration.

Once fully implemented, the mechanism could generate an estimated £3 million per year for watershed protection and restoration.  

Cochabamba, Bolivia © JC Fotografia/Shutterstock

Local people have played a key role by planting saplings in Tunari National Park, Bolivia © Asociación Armonía.

Designing a Payment for Ecosystem Services mechanism  

Over the past two years, Armonía has worked with municipalities, communities and regional institutions to explore how a PES mechanism could work in the Cochabamba region.

The PES concept is straightforward. Communities living in the upper watershed protect and restore forests that provide essential services such as water regulation, erosion control and biodiversity conservation. Downstream users who benefit from these services contribute financially to support that stewardship.

Through the Accelerator process, Armonía undertook studies, assessments and consultations across the Cochabamba metropolitan area’s seven municipalities. Many residents recognised that protecting the forest is directly linked to their water security. Based on these encouraging results, Armonía and their partners are developing a regional trust fund.  

Cochabamba Mountain-finch © Dubi Shapiro.

Building the institutions behind the mechanism 

The financing system is only one piece of the puzzle – strong governance and community participation are also essential. With FIA support, Armonía is now helping communities develop ten-year sustainable development strategies that identify restoration priorities and income opportunities. A multi-stakeholder platform will oversee the initiative and guide decisions, while the park administration is also receiving support to strengthen monitoring, prevent wildfires and improve co-ordination.  

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A new model for watershed protection 

The work underway in Tunari is about more than planting trees. It’s about building a durable system that links ecological restoration, community leadership and long-term financing. Once the mechanism is operational, it could transform how the Tunari watershed is managed. Instead of relying on intermittent  projects, the region would have a locally supported financing system that rewards stewardship and protects the Kewiña forests that has supported life in the Andes for centuries. 

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Finance

Building a scalable finance function at Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

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Building a scalable finance function at Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

Implementing the “Future of Finance Academy”

KPMG in the UK worked with CCEP to co-create a comprehensive learning program for senior managers and associate directors in its finance function. We began by developing a strong understanding of the unique business context in which the company and its finance team operate.

This also helped us determine the best mode of delivery for its globally distributed finance function and identify opportunities to stretch CCEP’s ambitions further.

For example, the KPMG team proposed turning the final module of the course into a showcase presentation. Trainees applied what they had learned to real business challenges and presented their solutions to the board in a business pitch-style competition. Although this added to finance leaders’ already demanding workload, it proved to be one of the course’s most successful elements, enabling participants to put their new skills into practice.

Before work on the Academy began, KPMG developed a detailed plan setting out how the two teams would work together, ensure consistency across the learning modules, maintain quality assurance, and manage changes to scope.

KPMG professionals then collaborated closely with CCEP to co-create bespoke learning content, with CCEP’s senior finance leaders acting as subject matter experts alongside our own finance specialists. 

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Bangladesh Says $300 Billion Climate Finance Goal Falls Short, Calls for More Support

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Bangladesh Says 0 Billion Climate Finance Goal Falls Short, Calls for More Support
DHAKA, June 23 (Reuters) – Bangladesh called on ⁠Tuesday ⁠for more funds and ⁠faster support for developing countries facing escalating threats from climate change, saying the global climate financing goal of $300 billion per ‌year fell short of ‌their needs. Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s …
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