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Frontier debt risks ‘going dark’ amid high costs and creative deals

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Frontier debt risks ‘going dark’ amid high costs and creative deals
  • Some governments seek alternative ways to raise cash
  • Emerging markets debt in focus at this week’s IMF World Bank meetings
  • Lack of transparency will raise costs for borrowers, say investors

LONDON/WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) – The need for emerging economies to be more transparent about their debt is one issue uniting wealthy countries and multilateral lenders in a fractious, divided world where the international order and development finance face pressure.

The World Bank in June launched a call for “radical” debt transparency and the United States outlined transparency as a key goal for international financial institutions under President Donald Trump’s leadership.

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But in the past several years, the riskiest of those nations – so-called frontier market countries – have been taking on more private, complex and “creative” debt arrangements that inadvertently undercut the visibility of the terms of their debt.

“Everybody loves transparency…(but) whatever the confidentiality clauses say, we are seeing a lot less of the documentation of commercial bank and other private lending,” said Anna Gelpern, a law professor at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. who works on debt issues.

Collateralised lending to countries in strife that had dwindling options of raising funds causes particular issues, she added.

“That means that everything is going dark in terms of debt transparency.”

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LIMITED ACCESS FOR BORROWERS

Countries from Panama and Colombia to Angola and Cameroon have sought to weather double-digit bond yields by seeking less conventional borrowing – from private placements to resource-backed loans or complex debt swaps requiring collateral.

While this is not on its own untoward, it means the terms of the debt – the cost, the collateral and even sometimes the tenure or amount – are not public.

This contrasts with international bond issuance where terms of the borrowing are published.

Some investors say the borrowing is a smart, sophisticated way to wait out times when bond markets might not be so easily accessible. But others warn this makes the total debt pile less transparent.

“With regards to collateralized borrowing, these kinds of hidden instruments, institutions like the IMF should be very worried about it, because they really then make the concept of preferred creditor very complicated,” said Reza Baqir, head of sovereign advisory at Alvarez & Marsal.

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NET NEGATIVE, COST SAVING

The IMF estimated in a paper earlier this year that private lending to low-income countries outside international bonds as a percentage of their public and publicly guaranteed debt had risen to 10% by end-2023 from 6% at end-2010. Overall private lending – including international bond issuance – rose to 19% from 6%.

Victor Mourad of Citi said international bond issuance from Sub-Saharan African markets had been net negative – meaning governments raised less than they paid back – for the past three years.

Governments have sought cheaper funding sources – such as loans backed by development finance institutions such as the World Bank – and also more “creativity” via private placements and borrowing facilities in different currencies, though the alternatives they seek vary.

Nigeria has in the past secured oil-backed loans using crude oil cargoes as collateral. Angola opted for a $1 billion “total return swap” with JPMorgan, with privately placed bonds as collateral.

Aaron Grehan, co-head of emerging market debt with Aviva Investors, said Colombia and Panama had also avoided public debt markets, the former with dollar-bond buybacks and a total return swap, the latter with private placements.

Both had done well in these deals, he said, but will need to return to capital markets before too long due to the sheer amount they need. “You kick the can down the road,” he said.

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When they return to public markets, investors will need to unpick their debt to try to determine what governments can sustainably borrow and repay.

“We have to do the homework and figure out if what is happening makes sense,” said Elina Theodorakopoulou, managing director and portfolio manager with Manulife Investment Management.

“If there is not enough transparency, that will be translated into the yield that you have to face if you were to access the market.”

Countries themselves say the deals have saved them money. Angola is still deciding on whether to extend its total return swap with JPMorgan, despite getting stung with a temporary $200 million margin call when oil prices slid.

“The cost of those financings is lower than the Eurobond,” said Dorivaldo Teixeira, general director of the public debt management unit at Angola’s finance ministry, while acknowledging the risks involved.

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PUBLIC BORROWING, BUT HARDER TO ASSESS

At this week’s IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, one of the issues the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable will seek to tackle is the trouble of restructuring private debt.

That has snared Zambia and Ghana in default for longer than expected.

Sources said governments and advisors underestimated how hard it would be to unpick, determining who holds it, on what terms and whether there was collateral which can put one borrower ahead in the queue. This complicates debt reworks, in which all borrowers, ostensibly, must get equal treatment.

“It raises risks,” said Thys Louw, a portfolio manager with Ninety One. “Anything that’s marginally opaque adds complexity.”

Reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker, Additional reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Andrea Ricci

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Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI

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Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI

Background

India is home to the world’s largest livestock population of 536.76 million, which produces 25% of the world’s milk1. This increase in livestock population leads to increased methane emissions, primarily from enteric fermentation and manure management. As a result, livestock contributes to 58% (BUR 4, 2020) of India’s agricultural methane footprint. However, unlike crop-based emissions, livestock methane is diffuse, biologically driven, and more complex to measure and manage, making it less visible within existing climate finance frameworks.

Current research and policy discussions indicate that while technical mitigation solutions exist through feed improvements and manure management, evidence of their effectiveness in maintaining dairy productivity, animal health, and protecting farmers’ incomes is scattered. This leads to heightened risk perceptions among dairy producers when considering methane mitigation measures. Furthermore, even where the evidence is compelling, the fragmentation of dairy producers precludes their aggregation. Additionally, there is a lack of robust, affordable, and scalable monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems at the grassroots level. These barriers prevent the development of a clear, scalable, and financeable pipeline of livestock methane abatement in India.

The Government of India has actively supported dairy development and livestock health through various schemes and programs introduced by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying. At the same time, livestock systems in India are deeply embedded within rural livelihoods and socio-economic structures, making the sector a critical component of rural resilience. Consequently, interventions must be context-aware and farmer-centric, with a strong focus on livelihood security and alignment with local values and practices.

With this background, CPI is organizing a roundtable to explore how livestock methane can transition from a technically understood challenge to actionable opportunities on the ground, including both animal feed and manure management. The forum would bring together dairy producer organizations, nodal agencies, think tanks, ecosystem enablers, and financial institutions. It will deliberate upon possible projectized solutions and accompanying financing mechanisms that could be scaled up to address the twin objectives of methane abatement and farmers’ income security.

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Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings

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Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings

By Samira Mensah, Head of Analytics & Research Africa, S&P Global Ratings

 

 

 

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Efficient capital markets can transform Africa’s limited domestic financial assets into investments that spur economic growth. By connecting institutional investors, pension funds and foreign investors, capital markets enhance economic development by increasing the availability of funding for long-term projects.

Efficient domestic capital markets can not only address governments’ significant funding gaps but can also ensure that critical infrastructure developments—such as transportation, energy and telecommunications—are adequately financed, ultimately driving economic growth and employment. Supported by transparent and comparable risk frameworks, efficient domestic capital markets can build confidence among domestic and foreign investors and enhance resilience during periods of global risk aversion.

In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks.

In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks. Firstly, with limited exceptions, regulatory frameworks generally lag the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ (IOSCO’s) global standards, which cover listing standards on securities exchanges, development of digital market infrastructure and improvements in the timeliness and transparency of regulatory disclosures of issuers’ financial results, including environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and green-finance taxonomies.

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Some countries, such as South Africa, Kenya, Morocco and Mauritius, are more advanced than others. The misalignment of regulatory frameworks with international norms stems from the gap between adoption and implementation through legislation, which deters international and local investment.

Secondly, the absence of standardized risk assessments leads to information gaps and limits investor participation in primary and secondary bond markets. Credit benchmarks—such as sovereign-yield curves, credit ratings and market-implied risk measures—can help in this regard. They distill complex financial, macroeconomic and institutional information into consistent and comparable signals.

As such, these benchmarks provide a standardized framework for assessing creditworthiness, supporting consistent credit analysis and facilitating decision-making based on transparent and comparable data. They are relevant to investment vehicles with specific investment mandates and may influence the availability of capital, which is crucial for infrastructure projects.

Capital markets can spur economic growth

Capital markets can play a central role in turning domestic savings into productive investments. This is particularly the case in Africa, where development needs are high and incomes are rising from a low base. Additionally, innovative financial technologies, such as fintech platforms, attract more small savings—including money sent home by migrants—that can also fund investments. However, mobilizing domestic savings for investments in local economies remains a significant challenge because many transactions are in cash and outside the financial system.

According to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), African sovereign-wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, central banks and commercial banks hold an estimated US$4 trillion in financial assets, representing 130 percent of Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. Long-term institutional capital accounts for $1.1 trillion of the $4 trillion, while African sovereign-wealth funds manage only about $145 billion in assets under management (AUM)—less than 1 percent of global sovereign-wealth funds’ AUM.

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Although banking assets comprise the majority of financial assets, they are typically short-term, and banks rely on customer deposits to fund lending activities. This underscores the mismatch between banks’ short-term funding profiles and the economy’s long-term financing needs, particularly in underdeveloped financial systems.

South Africa holds the largest share of Africa’s financial assets, followed by Egypt and Nigeria. South Africa contributes 20-25 percent to Africa’s financial assets. This reflects the country’s outsized role within the continent’s savings pools, its large and mature pension system and its highly developed banking sector. We estimate that the South African banking sector’s assets amount to nearly 100 percent of GDP, while nonbank financial institutions—including pension and insurance funds—account for close to 120 percent of GDP.

Smaller economies that are important regional financial hubs—such as Morocco, Mauritius and Kenya—also play a meaningful role. Aggregate financial assets represent 80 percent to more than 200 percent of these economies’ respective GDPs. Yet a significant portion of this capital does not flow into long-term productive investments.

In several countries, the economic effects of financial assets are muted because large shares are either invested in government securities or placed offshore. For example, the bank-sovereign nexus remains particularly high in Egypt and Kenya, where government securities account for 30-60 percent of banking assets. This contributes to crowding out private investments and increases fiscal-financial linkages. Pension funds are further constrained by specific investment mandates. We understand that only 5 percent of their assets are allocated to alternative investments.

Capital allocation rules could channel domestic savings into real sectors

Regulations across various jurisdictions permit pension funds and sovereign-wealth funds to invest abroad, albeit to varying degrees. For instance, South Africa, which holds the largest share of the continent’s institutional savings, allows its pension funds to invest up to 45 percent offshore, while Nigeria’s regulatory framework limits pension funds’ aggregate offshore exposure to 20-25 percent.

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While this facilitates diversification, it also means that a significant portion of domestic savings is invested in fixed-income securities outside Africa, thereby curbing the potential for local economic development. Similarly, when African sovereign-wealth funds invest internationally, their portfolios tend to be diversified away from African assets, further diluting the potential developmental benefits of domestic savings.

Intra-African investment remains limited

However, existing cross-border banking and investment activity points to significant untapped potential. Pan-African banks are important for regional financial connectivity, but their cross-border activities are limited by risk-return considerations, leaving significant potential for greater mobilization of long-term investment. These banking groups’ networks facilitate payments, trade settlement and sovereign financing, but remain only partially leveraged for long-term investment mobilization.

For example, Moroccan banking groups have built extensive footprints across francophone West and Central Africa but their assets outside Morocco account for less than 10 percent of their consolidated assets. Although Nigerian and Kenyan banks support trade finance and corporate lending across regional trade corridors, their home markets hold the lion’s share of their consolidated assets.

Cross-border institutional capital flows remain modest. Pension funds and insurers largely invest domestically—often in government securities—or allocate savings offshore. This reflects regulatory fragmentation, currency risks, shallow capital markets and limited regional investment-vehicle opportunities. Joint investments in infrastructure, productive sectors and regional value chains remain low.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims at deepening financial integration. By seeking to expand intra-African trade and regional value chains, the AfCFTA aims to increase demand for cross-border financing, risk-sharing and long-term capital. This, however, will require more regional capital-market integrations, harmonized regulations and co-investment platforms that pool African savings.

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Leveraging existing pan-African banking networks, regional bond markets, infrastructure funds and blended-finance vehicles could redirect Africa’s capital toward continental growth. This could, in turn, reduce reliance on external financing and strengthen the links between domestic savings and productive investments under the AfCFTA framework.

The catalytic role of MLIs in capital mobilization

Multilateral lending institutions (MLIs) can mobilize long-term funding, provide credit enhancement and support the introduction of new financing structures. To improve capital efficiency and preserve lending capacity, several MLIs have increasingly used balance-sheet optimization tools in recent years, including portfolio risk-sharing and originate-to-distribute-type arrangements.

More broadly, MLIs’ engagement extends beyond direct financing to include policy support, institutional and capacity-building development and infrastructure. These measures may support longer-term improvements in market functioning and economic integration.

Afreximbank’s (African Export–Import Bank’s) push to implement the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) aims to accelerate regional trade integration under the AfCFTA. The PAPSS seeks to facilitate cross-border settlements in local currencies and reduce trade costs, while the Africa Trade Gateway plans to ease cross-border trade and payment flows. The benefits of these platforms for intraregional trade and transaction costs will likely emerge gradually.

Even so, structural constraints remain. In particular, the limited availability of first-loss concessional capital and uneven risk appetite in the private sector continue to constrain the scale and pace at which blended-finance solutions can be deployed. Although MLIs’ continent-wide initiatives could support the gradual expansion of public-private partnerships and risk-sharing structures, their effectiveness will likely depend on sustained policy support, transaction standardization and stable macro-financial conditions.

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Strengthening Africa’s capital markets

We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors.

We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors. Unlocking Africa’s abundant funding potential would benefit from establishing effective regulatory regimes that encourage listings without overburdening issuers. Strengthening capital markets by facilitating both debt and equity raisings and listings can broaden market access and deepen market liquidity.

Excluding South Africa, capital markets across Africa remain fragmented and shallow. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the largest African stock exchange by market capitalization, has a total market capitalization of South African rand (ZAR) 24.6 trillion (about US$1.5 trillion)—more than three times South Africa’s GDP. It ranks among the top 20 stock exchanges worldwide.

In contrast, other exchanges are more modest, as their private sectors’ funding profiles rely primarily on bank loans rather than accessing capital markets. Countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Morocco have significant domestic financing sources, but these often come at high costs.

Governments largely define these domestic bond markets because they are the largest issuers, and commercial banks are the primary buyers of government bonds. South Africa has the most liquid and diverse bond market, but government securities dominate local-currency issuances (270 percent of GDP).

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Countries such as South Africa and Nigeria have introduced reforms to unlock nonbank domestic capital, notably through pension-fund reforms that allow greater capital allocation to alternative assets. Other reforms aim to develop new financing platforms, facilitate green financing and set benchmarks for how capital markets can price climate and infrastructure-related risks.

In 2022, the African Development Bank (AfDB) issued its inaugural local-currency ZAR200-million green bond, which was listed on the JSE. The JSE is advancing sustainability-linked financial instruments and improving ESG disclosures, aligning African capital markets with global best practices.

In 2026, the JSE launched its nature platform and listed Africa’s first nature-linked performance-based bond—a ZAR2.5-billion issuance by FirstRand Bank, one of the country’s top banks. In 2025, the Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE) launched its Green Exchange Window (GEW), supported by the Luxembourg Stock Exchange (LuxSE).

Collectively, these labeled debt instruments can act as catalysts for blended-finance structures, mobilizing more private capital.

Governments play a vital role in equalizing access to information and developing deep, transparent sovereign-bond markets. Well-established government-bond yield curves in these markets serve as important pricing benchmarks for corporates and the wider economy. This enhances investor confidence and facilitates more informed investment decisions. Ongoing efforts by governments to increase transparency, provide timely information disclosures and maintain robust regulatory oversight will maximize the benefits of sovereign-bond markets.

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Clear and credible credit signals further enhance pricing transparency, enabling investors to better assess risk and return. Greater confidence in valuations supports active participation, improves secondary-market liquidity and strengthens price discovery. Over time, this creates a virtuous cycle—whereby increased participation reinforces market efficiency and resilience, ultimately supporting sustainable economic growth in Africa.

Despite structural shortcomings, domestic investors have increasingly stepped in to meet financing needs. Infrastructure projects are now more often financed through domestic local-currency capital markets and financial institutions, including development-finance institutions. We believe that Africa’s economic integration will be intrinsically linked to more developed domestic capital markets.

 

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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Samira Mensah is Managing Director, Research & Analytics Africa, and Country Head for South Africa at S&P Global Ratings, based in Johannesburg. She leads thought leadership and market outreach initiatives across Africa, with a particular focus on African credit markets and Islamic finance. A frequent speaker at industry conferences and contributor to research publications, Samira recently presented at The Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi.

 

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Care New England eliminates 30+ positions, citing financial strain

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Care New England eliminates 30+ positions, citing financial strain

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) — Dozens of workers at Care New England have been laid off due to ongoing financial pressures amid Rhode Island’s “escalating” healthcare funding crisis.

Care New England announced the elimination of more than 30 leadership and non-clinical positions Tuesday, citing unprecedented economic challenges placing a continued strain on hospitals across the state.

According to CNE President and CEO Michael Wagner, the healthcare group has been “aggressively pursuing margin initiatives” in order to offset a $20 million budget deficit.

“Current financial conditions have made additional cost-saving measures unavoidable, but decisions like these that affect our workforce are especially difficult because they impact valued employees, colleagues, and the patients and communities we serve,” Wagner said in a press release.

He pointed to rising labor and supply costs, the increasing need to provide uncompensated care, low Medicaid reimbursement rates, as well as proposed federal changes that threaten uninsured Rhode Islanders as the primary reason for the system “restructuring.”

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CNE said it will “work closely” with affected employees, offering resources and assistance.

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