Finance
Financial markets are pricing in more inflation under another Trump presidency—and bond yields are surging
Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market.
After last week’s debate hurt President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection, Wall Street strategists are urging clients to position for sticky inflation and higher long-term bond yields.
At Morgan Stanley, strategists including Matthew Hornbach and Guneet Dhingra in a weekend note argued that “now is the time” to wager on long-term interest rates rising relative to short-term ones.
Trump’s rise in the polls since Thursday’s debate means investors have to contemplate economic policies that could lead to more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, along with a Republican sweep that leads to fiscal expansion and pressures longer-term bond yields higher, Morgan Stanley said.
Barclays, meanwhile, said that the best response to the rising prospect of a Trump victory is to hedge against inflation. Strategists Michael Pond and Jonathan Hill wrote Friday that the clearest expression is a wager that five-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, will outperform standard five-year notes.
Buy-side investors like Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, are increasingly taking note.
McIntyre said he “is worried that the bond vigilantes are coming out early in response to the debate fall out.” The odds of a Republican sweep in November will increase from a combination of “Biden’s performance, weaker data, higher oil prices.”
US Treasuries fell on Monday, pushing yields to the highest levels in more than a week, in what traders said was ongoing fallout from last week’s bump in the odds of a second Trump term.
Treasuries extended their losses after the Supreme Court ruled in a case that will limit the chances that Trump will face trial before the November election on charges for attempting to reverse the 2020 election results.
The uptick in Treasury yields was led by the longest maturities, with 30-year bonds up more than eight basis points to 4.65%, the highest level since May 31.
Not all on Wall Street are convinced that higher long-term Treasury yields and steeper curves are inevitable.
“While a term premia-driven sell-off has been consensus for how US yields should react to a Republican victory, we see arguments for flattening risk,” Goldman Sachs strategists led by George Cole and William Marshall wrote after the debate. They see investor focus shifting away from fiscal spending and towards the risks of higher tariffs, which are likely to weigh on productivity and growth as the election comes into view.
With the makeup of Congress after November unclear, assumptions about how Trump policies will impact markets are on shaky ground, Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab said.
“A shift in the narrative about what policy will be after the election is probably the biggest risk to the Treasury market,” Jones told Bloomberg Television Monday. “I just think it’s too early. Presidential candidates can say a lot of things on the campaign trail, but they have to get those things through Congress.”
Written by Jitendra Parashar at The Motley Fool Canada
Dividend investing can be one of the simplest ways to build long-term wealth while creating a steady stream of passive income. But in my opinion, a good dividend stock is about much more than just a high yield. Beyond dividend yield, investors should also look for companies with durable businesses, reliable cash flows, and a history of rewarding shareholders consistently over time.
That’s exactly why many investors turn to financial stocks. Banks and asset managers often generate recurring earnings through lending, investing, and wealth management activities, allowing them to support stable dividend payments even during uncertain market conditions.
Two Canadian financial stocks that stand out right now are AGF Management (TSX:AGF.B) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD). Both companies offer attractive dividends backed by solid financial performance and long-term growth strategies. In this article, I’ll explain why these two financial stocks could be worth considering for income-focused investors right now.
AGF Management stock continues to reward shareholders
AGF Management is a Toronto-based asset manager with businesses across investments, private markets, and wealth management. Through these divisions, the company offers equity, fixed income, alternative, and multi-asset investment strategies to retail, institutional, and private wealth clients.
Following a 59% rally over the last 12 months, AGF stock currently trades at $16.67 per share with a market cap of roughly $1.1 billion. At current levels, the stock offers a quarterly dividend yield of 3.3%.
One reason behind AGF’s strong recent performance is its increasingly diversified business model. The company has expanded its investment capabilities and broadened its geographic reach, helping it perform well across varying market environments.
In the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 (ended in February), AGF posted free cash flow of $36 million, up 14% year over year (YoY), driven mainly by higher management, advisory, and administration fees. These fees climbed to $92.5 million as demand for the company’s investment offerings strengthened.
AGF has also been focusing on expanding its alternative investment business and introducing new investment products. With strong cash generation and growing demand for alternative investments, AGF Management looks well-positioned to continue rewarding investors over the long term.
TD Bank stock remains a dependable dividend giant
Toronto-Dominion Bank, or TD Bank, is one of North America’s largest banks, serving millions of customers through its Canadian banking, U.S. retail banking, wealth management and insurance, and wholesale banking operations.
Finance
Martha Aguirre, former El Paso ISD interim superintendent, resigns as CFO as district finds ‘key financial challenges’
El Paso Independent School District Chief Financial Officer Martha Aguirre, who served as interim superintendent last year, resigned this week as the district said it had discovered “key financial challenges.”
The district issued a news release late Thursday afternoon that lacked details but indicated that a recent review had raised questions about the district’s fund balances, a key indicator of financial health.
“Through this process, key financial challenges were identified that must be addressed prior to closing out the 2025-26 school year including a current budget shortfall that is being actively addressed ahead of the district’s final financial presentation to the Board of Trustees in June,” the news release said.
A CFO is charged with developing a school district’s budget and overseeing its finance department. The EPISD Board of Trustees must adopt a budget for the 2026-27 school year by the end of the fiscal year June 30. The operating budget for the current school year is $547 million.
EPISD Deputy Superintendent David Bates will oversee the budget while the district searches for an interim and permanent CFO, district officials said in a statement.
EPISD Board President Leah Hanany said trustees were notified about Aguirre’s resignation this week. She said the district plans to give the public more information on the current year’s budget during a board meeting later this month.
“The board was also notified of a potential budget shortfall for the 2025 budget, but we don’t have final numbers yet. My understanding is that we are still primed to pass a balanced budget for fiscal year 2026-27 in June,” Hanany said in a statement.
Aguirre could not be reached for comment. EPISD’s CFO makes $148,200 to $209,900 a year, according to the district’s administrative pay plan.
She served as EPISD’s interim superintendent from June to December 2025 after the district’s former superintendent, Diana Sayavedra, resigned under pressure from the board. She returned to her position as CFO when Brian Lusk was hired as EPISD’s new permanent superintendent.
Aguirre’s resignation comes amid an uncertain budget season after a state funding calculation error tied to school property tax breaks caused EPISD to lose out on $17 million in projected revenue. In late April, EPISD officials estimated it would cause the district’s spending to exceed its revenue next year by $10 million.
The district is also considering calling for a bond election in November to upgrade its aging campuses as part of the larger 2024 Destination District Redesign initiative to close schools and improve the ones that remain open.
El Paso Teachers’ Association President Norma De La Rosa said Aguirre’s departure was unexpected.
“We’re right in the middle of the committee meetings for a possible bond and getting ready to get that budget to the June board meeting for next school year. So, to say that I’m highly surprised is an understatement,” De La Rosa told El Paso Matters.
Aguirre started working with the district in 1996 as a general clerk, according to a video published by the district.
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