Finance
Access to Auto Credit Improved in March, as Increased Negative Equity and Growing Subprime Share Push Dealertrack Index Higher – Cox Automotive Inc.
In March 2026, the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index rose to 102.4, its best reading since June 2022. The All-Loans Index increased 1.3% from February’s 101.1 and is up over 6% from March 2025. Even as yield spreads widened, the month’s improvement was broad-based across all channels and lender types, driven primarily by a significant expansion in subprime lending, a recovery in approval rates, and strong gains from banks.
Key Metrics
- Approval Rates: The approval rate for auto loans rose to 70.8% in March, up 40 basis points (bps) from February, reversing a two-month declining trend. Approval rates remain down 180 bps from March 2025 (72.6%), even as most lenders continued to expand access broadly.
- Subprime Share: The share of loans to subprime borrowers increased by 200 bps month over month (from 17.5% to 19.5%) and is up 300 bps year over year. March’s reading of 19.5% is the highest level in the dataset since March 2020. This sustained expansion suggests lenders are increasingly comfortable extending credit to higher-risk borrowers.
- Yield Spread: The yield spread widened by 31 bps (from 7.53 to 7.84), while the average contract rate rose 50 bps (from 11.2% to 11.7%). The 5-year Treasury yield increased by 17 bps (from 3.68% to 3.85%). This widening spread represents less favorable pricing for consumers and may reflect lenders charging a premium to offset the increased risk from higher subprime lending and elevated negative equity.
- Loan Term Length: The share of loans with terms greater than 72 months decreased by 50 bps (from 29.3% to 28.8%), breaking a three-month streak of increases, and is up 510 bps year over year. February’s 29.3% remains the all-time high in the dataset; at 28.8%, March’s reading is the second highest on record and continues to reflect ongoing affordability pressures as consumers opt for longer terms to manage monthly payments.
- Negative Equity Share: The proportion of borrowers with negative equity increased by 120 bps month over month (from 58.0% to 59.2%) and is up 620 bps year over year, pushing the share to a new all-time high for the third consecutive month and signaling increased risk as more borrowers carry loan balances that exceed their vehicle’s value.
- Down Payment Percentage: The average down payment percentage increased by 30 bps (from 13.6% to 13.9%) but is down 80 bps year over year. This modest increase may reflect lenders requiring slightly more upfront capital or consumers voluntarily putting more down, though down payments remain below year-ago levels.
Channel and Lender Trends
- Channels: Credit access improved across all sales channels in March. The largest gains were in the Non-Captive New segment, followed by All New. Franchise Used, All Used, CPO, and Independent Used also saw improvement.
- Lender Types: Lender performance was broadly positive in March. Banks led the improvement with credit availability rising 5.2%, the largest monthly gain among lender types. Credit Unions reversed their prior month’s decline, up 2.9%. Captives continued to improve, rising 1.4%, while Finance Companies were essentially flat. Overall, lenders are showing continued willingness to extend credit, with banks driving the month-over-month improvement.
Year-Over-Year Comparison
Compared to March 2025, credit access was looser across all channels and lender types:
- Channels: The most notable year-over-year improvements were in Franchise Used, All New, and Non-Captive New, indicating stronger credit availability across both new and used vehicle segments. All Used and Independent Used also saw solid improvement, while CPO saw more modest gains.
- Lender Types: Captives and Banks led the year-over-year loosening, while Finance Companies also improved. Credit unions showed a more cautious yet still positive stance on credit access compared with a year ago.
Implications for Consumers and Lenders
- Consumers: Credit access continued to broaden in March, with improvement across all channels and lender types offering financing opportunities in both new and used markets. However, the underlying picture carries increasing caution. Record negative equity, a sharply rising subprime share, and widening yield spreads all point to elevated borrowing costs and greater long-term financial risk. Consumers should carefully consider the full terms of any financing offer, particularly total loan length and overall cost.
- Lenders: Banks led the market in March, posting the strongest monthly gain among lender types. Captives also continued to improve, with their index reaching its highest level since April 2022, while credit unions reversed their prior month’s decline. With negative equity reaching a new all-time high, lenders increasing exposure in this environment face growing collateral risk, and balancing volume growth with disciplined underwriting will be increasingly important as these risk indicators continue to build.
Overall, the March Dealertrack Credit Availability Index reflected continued improvement in auto credit access, with the headline index climbing to 102.4, its best level since June 2022. Individual metrics told a more complex story, however. Subprime lending reached its highest level since March 2020, approval rates recovered modestly, and banks posted the strongest monthly gain among lender types. Yet negative equity reaching another new high and widening yield spreads point to growing risk beneath the surface.
View historical Dealertrack Credit Availability Index reports.
The Dealertrack Credit Availability Index tracks six factors that affect auto credit access: loan approval rates, subprime share, yield spreads, loan term length, negative equity and down payments. Reported monthly, the index indicates whether access to auto credit is improving or declining. This typically means that it is cheaper and easier for consumers to obtain a loan or more expensive and harder. The index is published around the tenth of each month.
Finance
Sports betting should be regulated as a financial product, not gambling, aspiring prediction market provider says
MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — Sports betting should be regulated as a federal financial product rather than a state-licensed casino product, two panelists said Thursday.
Appearing at Consensus Miami 2026, Jacob Fortinsky, co-founder and CEO of sports betting platform Novig, said the legacy sportsbook model is structurally broken because it treats winning bettors as cheaters.
“Sports betting is really the only industry in the country that regularly limits and bans their power users,” Fortinsky said. He framed sports event contracts as binary financial instruments that “for so long have been treated as a gambling product and instead should really be treated as a financial product.” Globally, he said, sports betting is “a $2 trillion asset class still dominated by these legacy casinos.”
Adam Mastrelli, founder of 57 Maiden, a firm that builds AI-driven trading strategies for prediction markets, validated the critique with personal experience.
“My partner and I got kicked off of two big sportsbooks within two months of trading because we were sharp,” he said, It’s like “LeBron James getting kicked out of the NBA for being too good,” he added.
Mastrelli said the team turned to Novig, which he said charges no fees and allows traders to create synthetic positions.
Mastrelli said his firm’s edge decayed quickly, and of 154 proposed trading strategies, only three currently run profitably.
“This edge will go away,” he said, “so if you can build systems that can keep up with that edge and that alpha… then it becomes really, really intriguing.” His most profitable season, he said, was the WNBA.
Fortinsky said Novig is on track to transition this summer from a sweepstakes model live in 35 states to a federal DCM framework that will let it operate in all 50 states. An earlier attempt to be regulated at the state level in Colorado, he said, was a wake-up call. “Regulators told us essentially you’re naive if you think we care about consumer protection or innovation or market efficiency. We really just care about our tax revenue,” he said.
The federal-state fight, Fortinsky added, is “going to get to the Supreme Court in the next two or three years,” with 15 pending lawsuits between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi, Robinhood and various states. Within prediction markets, he argued sports is “counterintuitively actually the safest vertical,” given the bigger insider-trading and manipulation concerns around political and event-driven contracts.
Mastrelli, who said he avoids offshore platforms entirely, compared prediction markets to equities exchanges: “When I see a robust equities market now, this is AQR against SIG. It doesn’t go away.”
Harley-Davidson’s new CEO wants to transform how people think about the iconic motorcycle brand, so the company is trying something different.
This week, Harley announced a new strategy that focuses on lower-priced bikes, rather than relying on older, more affluent customers to buy its higher-margin touring models.
“Back to the Bricks builds on our core strengths and competitive advantages, harnessing the passion of our riders to deliver profitable growth for the Company and both our dealers and shareholders,” Harley CEO Artie Starrs said this week. “As we drive towards this new phase of growth, we remain committed to the craftsmanship and dedication that define our brand.”
Entry-level Harley-Davidsons cost about $13,000, while the higher-end Adventure Touring models average about $23,250, and the Premium Range &CVO models cost about $38,500, according to Reuters.
Harley’s new strategy targets a core profit of over $350 million from its motorcycle business by 2027 and over $150 million in cost reductions.
To kick off the new strategy, Harley is introducing Sprint, a new entry-level model powered by a smaller 440cc engine, later in the year.
What is Harley-Davidson’s “Back to the Bricks” strategy?
Harley’s new strategy relies on more than just pushing buyers toward cheaper vehicles to increase volume. The 123-year-old company has a set of five pillars on which it is building its future.
Harley-Davidson “Back to the Bricks” 5-point plan
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Deep appreciation of Harley-Davidson’s competitive advantages and legacy: The Company’s iconic brand, diversified and powerful revenue channels, and best-in-class dealer network provide a powerful foundation for growth.
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Renewed commitment to exclusive dealer network to drive enterprise profitability: Harley-Davidson’s dealers are a competitive advantage. The Company is planning actions to enable dealers to double profitability in 2026 and then double it again by 2029.
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Immediate actions to recapture share in areas where Harley-Davidson has right to win: Harley-Davidson has strong legacy equity in existing markets including new motorcycles, used motorcycles, Parts & Accessories, and Apparel & Licensing. The Company’s new strategy is focused on positioning the Company to regain share and drive meaningful volume growth in categories where it benefits from credibility, scale, and deep rider connection.
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Strong financial position with a path to stronger free cash flow and EBITDA margin: Cost and restructuring actions already underway support a path to stronger free cash flow and EBITDA margin over time.
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Bolstered management team with balance of fresh perspectives and institutional knowledge: Harley-Davidson has made a number of leadership appointments that support the Company as it leverages its innate strengths.
Written by Jitendra Parashar at The Motley Fool Canada
Dividend investing can be one of the simplest ways to build long-term wealth while creating a steady stream of passive income. But in my opinion, a good dividend stock is about much more than just a high yield. Beyond dividend yield, investors should also look for companies with durable businesses, reliable cash flows, and a history of rewarding shareholders consistently over time.
That’s exactly why many investors turn to financial stocks. Banks and asset managers often generate recurring earnings through lending, investing, and wealth management activities, allowing them to support stable dividend payments even during uncertain market conditions.
Two Canadian financial stocks that stand out right now are AGF Management (TSX:AGF.B) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD). Both companies offer attractive dividends backed by solid financial performance and long-term growth strategies. In this article, I’ll explain why these two financial stocks could be worth considering for income-focused investors right now.
AGF Management stock continues to reward shareholders
AGF Management is a Toronto-based asset manager with businesses across investments, private markets, and wealth management. Through these divisions, the company offers equity, fixed income, alternative, and multi-asset investment strategies to retail, institutional, and private wealth clients.
Following a 59% rally over the last 12 months, AGF stock currently trades at $16.67 per share with a market cap of roughly $1.1 billion. At current levels, the stock offers a quarterly dividend yield of 3.3%.
One reason behind AGF’s strong recent performance is its increasingly diversified business model. The company has expanded its investment capabilities and broadened its geographic reach, helping it perform well across varying market environments.
In the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 (ended in February), AGF posted free cash flow of $36 million, up 14% year over year (YoY), driven mainly by higher management, advisory, and administration fees. These fees climbed to $92.5 million as demand for the company’s investment offerings strengthened.
AGF has also been focusing on expanding its alternative investment business and introducing new investment products. With strong cash generation and growing demand for alternative investments, AGF Management looks well-positioned to continue rewarding investors over the long term.
TD Bank stock remains a dependable dividend giant
Toronto-Dominion Bank, or TD Bank, is one of North America’s largest banks, serving millions of customers through its Canadian banking, U.S. retail banking, wealth management and insurance, and wholesale banking operations.
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