Our expert predictions for the wide-open, COVID-delayed, gone-to-Vegas 2022 Grammy Awards

Properly, you may wager that oddsmakers are pondering some new eventualities now.

Only a week after Will Smith surprised the world by slapping Chris Rock onstage on the Oscars, the sixty fourth Grammy Awards will happen Sunday evening, including a component of intrigue to an already atypical iteration of music’s most prestigious awards ceremony.

This yr’s occasion, which was postponed from late January amid considerations over the unfold of the Omicron variant, will probably be broadcast stay on CBS from the MGM Grand Backyard Enviornment in Las Vegas, a COVID-inspired transfer from the Grammys’ standard dwelling in Los Angeles that the Recording Academy is gamely presenting as an opportunity to “placed on a world-class present.”

Trevor Noah of “The Each day Present” is about to host, whereas performances are anticipated by Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, BTS, Lil Nas X and Brandi Carlile, amongst others. (The academy hasn’t mentioned the way it plans to deal with a deliberate look by Foo Fighters, whose drummer, Taylor Hawkins, died final week.)

High nominees throughout the ceremony’s 86 classes embody Jon Batiste, the R&B and jazz composer identified to many because the bandleader on “The Late Present With Stephen Colbert,” Eilish, Justin Bieber, Doja Cat, H.E.R. and 19-year-old sensation Rodrigo, who’s up for the Grammys’ 4 largest prizes of album, file and tune of the yr, together with greatest new artist.

Additionally within the combine amongst high-level nods, which this yr managed to keep away from a obvious omission à la the Weeknd’s mystifying shutout in 2021, are the duo of Girl Gaga and Tony Bennett in addition to Kanye West, whose polarizing “Donda” is up for album of the yr however who was reportedly barred from acting on the telecast due to latest threats he’s made on social media.

If these contenders really feel particularly outdated, thank that three-month pandemic delay, to not point out an eligibility window that closed Sept. 30, earlier than the discharge of latest industrial juggernauts equivalent to Adele’s “30″ and the Sizzling 100-topping “We Don’t Discuss About Bruno,” from Disney’s “Encanto” soundtrack.

To assume by how all this would possibly shake out — and to handicap the largest races in a yr that feels extra wide-open than most — Instances pop music critic Mikael Wooden convened with Instances music reporter Suzy Exposito and Julian Kimble, who writes about music and tradition for the Ringer, GQ and the Undefeated.

Let’s begin with Jon Batiste, who with a whopping 11 nods has greater than some other artist this yr. In some ways in which sentence appears insane, however in different methods it makes good sense: Although he hardly sits on the heart of pop music, Batiste is musically dexterous, politically progressive, morally uplifting — all confirmed Grammy values. (And it may’t damage that he works as a musician on CBS.) What do you assume it says in regards to the Recording Academy that Batiste is Mr. Grammy this yr?
Suzy Exposito: Batiste is the embodiment of status. He comes from a brass-band dynasty in New Orleans; he’s inventive director of the Nationwide Jazz Museum in Harlem; he’s labored with everybody from Wynton Marsalis to Trent Reznor.

Julian Kimble: And he gained an Oscar final yr for doing the music in “Soul.”

Exposito: In different phrases, he’s been totally vetted, which I feel goes a great distance for an establishment that, Billie Eilish apart, has been traditionally reluctant to get behind new folks.

Do we predict Batiste would possibly truly win file or album of the yr? File appears not possible, as he’s competing towards artists with, you understand, well-liked songs, and the album class consists of higher-profile traditionalist bait in Tony Bennett and Girl Gaga’s “Love for Sale.”
Kimble: I can see “Love for Sale” successful. However that may underscore the truth that so usually these awards aren’t about the most effective music however are about rewarding a narrative or making an announcement.

A win for the 95-year-old Bennett, who has Alzheimer’s illness, would clearly be a de facto lifetime-achievement award — which, it’s value stating, the Grammys already gave him when he took album of the yr for his “MTV Unplugged” LP in 1995.
Exposito: It’s nice to see jazz being embraced this prominently on the Grammys. And it’s inspiring that Bennett continues to be making music at his age and despite his situation. However that is an album of Cole Porter requirements; it’s not authentic music. I really feel like that may make artists surprise, “The place’s the reward in writing authentic music?”

Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish are each nominated for album of the yr with strong however lower-wattage follow-ups to extra impactful LPs that gained that award. To me, that’s the academy making one other assertion — that every lady has made it firmly contained in the Grammy membership.
Kimble: And they also’re mechanically within the dialog, whatever the output. It’ll take a couple of years, possibly longer, for voters to replace that.

Exposito: I feel it’s unusual that album of the yr is the one nomination Taylor has this yr.

Kimble: It’s like they obtained to the tip and somebody was like, “Wait, what about Taylor Swift?”

Let’s speak about Olivia Rodrigo. Can she sweep the large 4 prizes like Eilish did in 2020?
Kimble: I feel she has greatest new artist sewn up. Music of the yr I might see occurring. However I don’t know if she will pull off album of the yr; I feel that’s the largest impediment.

Exposito: Being a Disney darling might work towards her. Selena Gomez labored actually arduous to shed that status for herself, and solely now in 2022, after releasing a number of albums, is she nominated for her first Grammy, within the Latin pop class.

Any severe menace to Rodrigo for greatest new artist?
Exposito: Finneas, simply because he has the bonus of his affiliation with Billie from being her brother. I truly don’t perceive why Finneas is eligible for greatest new artist, since he gained these Grammys along with her. Their act is beneath her title, however he’s a part of the music.

Justin Bieber and Doja Cat are up for large awards — together with album, file and tune of the yr — however I’d be stunned in the event that they win. They’re dependable hitmakers, however neither adopted a conventional path to success.
Kimble: Doja got here up on the web, which is likely to be a detriment within the eyes of the academy, though I feel “Planet Her” is probably the most full album in that class. She’s supplying you with a lot by way of style and magnificence and what she will do. She’s clearly proficient, however I don’t assume voters take her severely.

Exposito: But to not have Doja Cat concerned within the Grammys can be such a testomony to their irrelevance. I feel the identical about Lil Nas X, who additionally was born on the web — birthed from a seashell in an ocean of Barbs.

Any ceremony that purports to mirror the yr in pop has to function Doja and Nas.
Kimble: Artists are realizing they’re extra invaluable to the Grammys — to their credibility — than the Grammys are to them. These artists constructed their large followings with out that endorsement, and I don’t assume their audiences care about it.

Lil Nas X is nominated for five Grammy Awards, together with file, tune and album.

(Charlotte Rutherford)

I do assume Lil Nas X has some Grammy thirst, based mostly on the stuff he’s keen to do and the locations he’s keen to point out up. The place does Kanye match into this? Does he care or not care in regards to the Grammys?
Kimble: Kanye cares. His complete factor has all the time been, “That is irrelevant and doesn’t matter” — however then why have you ever been going off for nearly 20 years about the way you’ve not been correctly rewarded?

Exposito: Kanye has actually reveled within the spectacle of calling that out. He will get to point out as much as the large awards present like a Disney villain; he drops in out of a cloud of smoke and he’s like, “Lemme let you know what I take into consideration this though no person requested.”

The Grammys are an excellent foil for Kanye.
Kimble: Somebody with a persecution complicated wants an opponent — they must be oppressed by one thing. And he’s oppressed in methods. It’s an advanced state of affairs this yr: The academy has completed all this contorting to broaden the classes to incorporate him, and now they’re telling him he can’t carry out. Granted, it’s based mostly on his personal conduct. However what occurs if he exhibits up and wins? They’ve put the battery in his again to behave up much more. And it validates the argument in some folks’s eyes that the Grammys don’t respect hip-hop and don’t respect Black artists. Principally, the entire thing blew up of their face, and for what? The music ain’t even that good. When you needed a rap album in album of the yr, Tyler, the Creator’s album is healthier.

Tyler’s LP is nominated within the rap album class, which doesn’t really feel fairly as off the mark this yr because it has prior to now. He’s up towards Kanye, J. Cole and final yr’s winner, Nas. Drake was in there too, till he requested his nomination be withdrawn, presumably as a protest towards the Grammys’ fraught dealing with of hip-hop.
Kimble: Nas with the late-career surge as a result of they didn’t give him his Grammys 25 years in the past. These nominations are advantageous. Tyler’s gonna win, and he ought to.

Exposito: When Tyler gained rap album in 2020 with “Igor,” he gave a speech the place he mentioned that being nominated within the rap classes however not in the principle ones — and with an album that ventured properly past rap — was a holdover from the segregation period. It’s the place they silo Black males. That is why Drake withdrew. As a lot as Drake is a rapper, he’s a pop star, and he was arguing, “Why can’t I be in a mainstream class?”

Scores have been down lately for the Grammys, as they’ve been for almost all awards exhibits that don’t have one film star slapping one other. Which artists might truly draw viewers in the event that they had been to carry out Sunday?
Kimble: Beyoncé. You simply discover a approach: “What can we do for you, ma’am?” Kendrick Lamar’s not nominated, however I feel he’d deliver folks out simply because it’s been so lengthy. A Cardi B efficiency might do it — take a look at what occurred final yr when she and Megan Thee Stallion did “WAP.” That was a second folks keep in mind.

Exposito: I hope Lil Nas X and Jack Harlow are prepared to offer the “WAP” efficiency of the yr. “Business Child,” in the event that they do it proper, would possibly get as a lot fanfare and hate mail as “WAP” did final yr.

Maybe the largest music story of 2022 to date has been “Encanto,” whose forged simply sang on the Oscars. The Grammys haven’t introduced an “Encanto” efficiency but. If none occurs, is {that a} misplaced alternative?
Exposito: I feel it’s a misplaced alternative each time the Grammys ignores Latino contributions. Final yr, Unhealthy Bunny had generated a lot discuss that for the primary time ever — in over 60 years! — they broadcast a Latin class on the principle telecast. We’ll see what occurs this yr.

Any ideas on which social and political points performers and presenters would possibly converse out about?
Kimble: We might get one thing good — or one thing not properly thought out in any respect — concerning Ukraine and Russia. Or possibly one thing about gasoline costs?

Exposito: Oh, you understand artists don’t drive themselves.

Kimble: “Please, consider our drivers.”

Exposito: It will be silly if nobody addressed the wave of anti-LGBTQ payments occurring on this nation. I’d wish to assume that Lil Nas X has one thing up his sleeve, however he shouldn’t be the one one talking on that. The chipping-away at Roe vs. Wade too. Some ladies on the present may need one thing to say about it. I hope they do.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Jon Batiste, “We Are”

Tony Bennett and Girl Gaga, “Love for Sale”

Justin Bieber, “Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe)”

Doja Cat, “Planet Her (Deluxe)”

Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever”

H.E.R., “Again of My Thoughts”

Lil Nas X, “Montero”

Olivia Rodrigo, “Bitter”

Taylor Swift, “Evermore”

Kanye West, “Donda”

Will win: “Happier Than Ever” (Exposito); “Love for Sale” (Kimble, Wooden)

Ought to win: “Planet Her” (Exposito, Kimble); “Bitter” (Wooden)

RECORD OF THE YEAR

ABBA, “I Nonetheless Have Religion in You”

Jon Batiste, “Freedom”

Tony Bennett and Girl Gaga, “I Get a Kick Out of You”

Justin Bieber that includes Daniel Caesar and Giveon, “Peaches”

Brandi Carlile, “Proper on Time”

Doja Cat that includes SZA, “Kiss Me Extra”

Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever”

Lil Nas X, “Montero (Name Me by Your Identify)”

Olivia Rodrigo, “Drivers License”

Silk Sonic, “Depart the Door Open”

Will win: “Happier Than Ever” (Exposito); “Drivers License” (Kimble); “Depart the Door Open” (Wooden)

Ought to win: “Kiss Me Extra” (Kimble); “Montero” (Exposito, Wooden)

SONG OF THE YEAR

“Unhealthy Habits,” written by Fred Gibson, Johnny McDaid and Ed Sheeran (carried out by Ed Sheeran)

“A Stunning Noise,” written by Ruby Amanfu, Brandi Carlile, Brandy Clark, Alicia Keys, Hillary Lindsey, Lori McKenna, Linda Perry and Hailey Whitters (carried out by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile)

“Drivers License,” written by Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo (carried out by Olivia Rodrigo)

“Battle for You,” written by Dernst Emile II, H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas (carried out by H.E.R.)

“Happier Than Ever,” written by Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell (carried out by Billie Eilish)

“Kiss Me Extra,” written by Rogét Chahayed, Amala Zandile Dlamini, Lukasz Gottwald, Carter Lang, Gerard A. Powell II, Solána Rowe and David Sprecher (carried out by Doja Cat that includes SZA)

“Depart the Door Open,” written by Brandon Anderson, Christoper Brody Brown, Dernst Emile II and Bruno Mars (carried out by Silk Sonic)

“Montero (Name Me by Your Identify),” written by Denzel Baptise, David Biral, Omer Fedi, Montero Hill and Roy Lenzo (carried out by Lil Nas X)

“Peaches,” written by Louis Bell, Justin Bieber, Giveon Dezmann Evans, Bernard Harvey, Felisha “Fury” King, Matthew Sean Leon, Luis Manuel Martinez Jr., Aaron Simmonds, Ashton Simmonds, Andrew Wotman and Keavan Yazdani (carried out by Justin Bieber, that includes Daniel Caesar and Giveon)

“Proper on Time,” written by Brandi Carlile, Dave Cobb, Phil Hanseroth and Tim Hanseroth (carried out by Brandi Carlile)

Will win: “Happier Than Ever” (Exposito); “Drivers License” (Kimble, Wooden)

Ought to win: “Kiss Me Extra” (Exposito); “Happier Than Ever” (Kimble); “Drivers License” (Wooden)

BEST NEW ARTIST

Arooj Aftab

Jimmie Allen

Child Keem

Finneas

Glass Animals

Japanese Breakfast

The Child Laroi

Arlo Parks

Olivia Rodrigo

Saweetie

Will win: Olivia Rodrigo (all)

Ought to win: Japanese Breakfast (Exposito); Olivia Rodrigo (Kimble, Wooden)