Emmys 2024: Nomination predictions for series and acting races

Emmy nominations arrive Wednesday morning, and in case you’re just joining us, a couple of important programming notes.

“The Bear” won the Emmy for comedy series for its first season, so yes, it is indeed still a comedy, even if you don’t find the Fak family particularly funny or wonder how a show that fills you with heartbreak and anxiety could possibly be considered primarily as a comedy in the first place.

And “Shōgun,” which told the complete story of James Clavell’s 1975 historical novel, will be competing in the drama categories because it will be going off book and returning for a couple more seasons.

Do these classifications matter? “The Bear” could just as well been placed in drama and “Shōgun” in limited series and no one would have protested. As it stands, FX could become the first network to win the comedy, drama and limited series Emmys since HBO pulled off the sweep in 2015 with “Game of Thrones,” “Veep” and “Olive Kitteridge.”

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s focus on the nominations, which won’t be as plentiful as in past years, thanks to the lower number of submissions due to the 2023 actors’ and writers’ strikes. Those work stoppages sidelined many of television’s prestige shows, leading to opportunities for series that voters have ignored in the past, some for good reason.

LIMITED SERIES
“Baby Reindeer”
“Fargo”
“Lessons in Chemistry”
“Ripley”
“True Detective: Night Country”

Possible surprise: “Masters of the Air”
Possible “snub”: “Ripley”

This is a bounce-back year, both for the category and for a couple of its leading contenders, “Fargo” and “True Detective,” anthology shows that returned to form with terrific seasons. “Baby Reindeer” burned brightly for a couple of months and boasts the biggest viewership. “Fellow Travlers,” “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” and “The Sympathizer” will show up on a lot of ballots, as will “Masters of the Air,” the excellent World War II series from the team that made “Band of Brothers” and “The Pacific.” Narrowing the choices down to five will be a challenge. But if the gorgeously cinematic “Ripley” fails to make the cut, my mood will be as dark as the show’s dimly lighted staircases.

LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE LEAD ACTRESS
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Juno Temple, “Fargo”
Sofía Vergara, “Griselda”
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”

Possible surprise: Kate Winslet, “The Regime”
Possible “snub”: Watts

There’s no shortage of Oscar winners vying for attention. Along with Foster and Larson, voters could opt for Jessica Lange (“The Great Lillian Hall”), Nicole Kidman (“Expats”), Winslet (“The Regime”) and Julianne Moore (“Mary & George”). Thinking ahead, it feels like all the good will Foster earned while campaigning for her Oscar-nominated turn in “Nyad” will carry over here, particularly for a role that saw her returning to eerie, atmospheric crime-solving horror.

LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE LEAD ACTOR
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Andrew Scott, “Ripley”

Possible surprise: Tony Shalhoub, “Mr. Monk’s Last Case”
Possible “snub”: Bomer

I’m not sure how many people stuck with “The Sympathizer,” but Hoa Xuande’s impressive work as the double agent ranked high among the year’s best performances. Ewan McGregor was also wonderful playing a charming, exiled nobleman holding onto optimism in “A Gentleman in Moscow.” And with three Emmys for playing Monk, the detective tormented by obsessive-compulsive disorder, it might be a mistake to underestimate Tony Shalhoub, even if I have a hard time believing it’s really “Mr. Monk’s Last Case.”

LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, “Under the Bridge”
Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Aja Naomi King, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Diane Lane, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “Fargo”
Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer”
Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country”

Possible surprise: Kathy Bates, “The Great Lillian Hall”
Possible “snub”: Gladstone

Reis was a co-lead as Foster’s partner in (solving) crime in “True Detective,” but she’s being campaigned in supporting, making her one of the favorites alongside Gunning’s empathetic, terrifying turn as the stalker in “Baby Reindeer.” Bates, a 14-time nominee, could make it in again for her work as the loyal assistant in “The Great Lillian Hall,” a TV movie that dropped on the final day of Emmy eligibility. This affecting love letter to theater could end up being the season’s dark horse.

LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
Finn Bennett, “True Detective: Night Country”
Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer”
John Hawkes, “True Detective: North Country”
Joe Keery, “Fargo”
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Sam Spruell, “Fargo”

Possible surprise: Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Possible “snub”: Bennett

Are you ready for another Downey acceptance speech? Turning up in multiple roles in “The Sympathizer,” Downey showboated his way through the series, which, of course, is what you pay the man to do. Shortly before winning the Oscar for playing Lewis Strauss in “Oppenheimer,” Downey joked that the film’s director, Christopher Nolan, suggested he “attempt an understated approach as a last-ditch effort to perhaps resurrect my dwindling credibility.” Unrecognizable, maybe. Understated? The character’s jealousy and insecurity practically radiated off him. Actors rarely win awards for restraint.

Paulina Alexis, from left, Devery Jacobs, D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Lane Factor and Elva Guerra in Season 3 of “Reservation Dogs.” It will be a surprise if the show finally gets a nomination, and a snub if it doesn’t.

(Shane Brown / FX)

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COMEDY SERIES
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“The Gentlemen”
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Reservation Dogs”
“What We Do in the Shadows”

Possible surprise: “Palm Royale”
Possible “snub”: “Reservation Dogs”

Will voters give “Reservation Dogs” a fitting send-off? The series has been repeatedly feted by the American Film Institute and the Peabody Awards but not at the Emmys. It’s a special show, vitally important for Indigenous storytellers and, with the strikes thinning the list of worthy contenders, seemingly a no-brainer for a nomination. I’m predicting it’ll make it in, but that may be a case of wishcasting. Can a show’s Emmy status be both a surprise and a “snub”?

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale”

Possible surprise: Maya Rudolph, “Loot”
Possible “snub”: Gomez

After winning the supporting actress Emmy for “The Bear,” Edebiri now graduates to the lead category. Sydney and Carmy were partners in Season 2, after all. She’ll join reigning winner Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) and Smart, who won the category for the first two seasons of “Hacks.” You could make a case for any one of these women, and you would not be wrong.

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Theo James, “The Gentlemen”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

Possible surprise: Kelsey Grammer, “Frasier”
Possible “snub”: James

Grammer was last nominated for playing Dr. Frasier Crane 20 years ago. He won four Emmys for the role, and if he earns another nod, it would give the category a decided golden guys flavor. Martin is 78 with David one year behind at 77. Short is 74, while Grammer turned 69 this year. If White’s Carmy was catering a dinner for this group, the meal would start at 5.

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Abby Elliott, “The Bear”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building”

Possible surprise: Lisa Ann Walter, “Abbott Elementary”
Possible “snub”: James

The comedy supporting categories will have one less nominee this year because of the decline in submissions. That’ll likely lead to disappointment for one of the talented women from “Abbott Elementary.” Ralph and James were nominated for the show’s first two seasons, with Ralph winning for the debut year. Walter deserves her moment too for the potent combination of delightful grit and humor she brings to the show.

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Lionel Boyce, “The Bear”
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Matty Matheson, “The Bear”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Oliver Platt, “The Bear”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”

Possible surprise: Paul Rudd, “Only Murders in the Building”
Possible “snub”: Matheson

For the ensemble of “The Bear,” this year’s Emmy nominations are going to be an all-you-can-eat affair, and it’s hard to predict who — if anyone — will be 86’d from the menu. The series’ celebrated flashback episode “Fishes” should earn Jon Bernthal, John Mulaney and Bob Odenkirk guest actor nods, with Jamie Lee Curtis and perhaps Sarah Paulson nabbing guest actress recognition. (Olivia Colman will be nominated for her work in the equally outstanding Season 2 episode “Forks.”) So maybe I have too many “Bear” actors here, but momentum is on the show’s side.

Imelda Staunton, center, is flanked by Olivia Colman at left and Claire Foy in “The Crown,” the only drama series nominated last year that is eligible to come back this season.

(Netflix)

DRAMA SERIES
“The Crown”
“The Curse”
“Fallout”
“The Gilded Age”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
“The Morning Show”
“Shōgun”
“Slow Horses”

Possible surprise: “Loki”
Possible “snub”: “The Curse”

“The Crown” is the only contender carried over from last year. “Succession” and “Better Call Saul” wrapped up their runs; while the second season of “House of the Dragon” premiered too late to be eligible. “Andor,” “Yellowjackets” and “The Last of Us” will return in good time, as will “The White Lotus,” though that show will likely land again as a limited series. That leaves us with perhaps the least inspiring slate of drama series nominees since … well, how do you feel about “Quincy, M.E.”? I mean, Jack Klugman was out there solving crimes years before those “CSI” investigators showed up on the scene. He deserves some points for that.

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Maya Erskine, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”
Emma Stone, “The Curse”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”

Possible surprise: Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Possible “snub”: Witherspoon

“Shōgun” deserves everything that will come its way (and that will be a lot). Sawai was magnificent for the way she deftly handled her character’s many facets — vassal, translator, warrior, lover, avenger. Elsewhere, nobody commits to cringe more than Stone. It’ll be interesting to see how voters reward a show that seemed determined to alienate its audience at every turn.

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
Donald Glover, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
Cosmo Jarvis, “Shōgun”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Dominic West, “The Crown”

Possible surprise: Tom Hiddleston, “Loki”
Possible “snub”: Glover

I don’t know what’s going on with television critics’ digestive systems, but I don’t think I’ve read a review of “Slow Horses” that hasn’t expressed a deep appreciation for Oldman‘s ability to pass gas. Can you win an Emmy for a certain flair for flatulence? We’re about to find out.

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Moeka Hoshi, “Shōgun”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Fumi Nikaido, “Shōgun”
Cynthia Nixon, “The Gilded Age”
Holland Taylor, “The Morning Show”

Possible surprise: Karen Pittman, “The Morning Show”
Possible “snub”: Nixon

“The Morning Show” pulled in a paltry 11 nominations for its first two seasons, winning only in 2020 for Billy Crudup’s terrifying charmer Cory Ellison. For a platform’s flagship show, that’s not particularly good. But, as mentioned, there’s a void in the drama categories this year. And though the show is soapy and comically frenetic, it offers its ensemble juicy roles to emote to their hearts’ content. In this category alone, you could make a case for four women — Taylor, Pittman, Greta Lee and Nicole Beharie. They all aced their characters’ big, dramatic moments; at least one of them (maybe two?) will be nominated.

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show”
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show”
Takehiro Hira, “Shōgun”
Nathan Lane, “The Gilded Age”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”

Possible surprise: Ke Huy Quan, “Loki”
Possible “snub”: Lane

Hamm will be nominated for playing the suave, space-loving billionaire on “The Morning Show,” and he will also nab a nod playing the delusional, power-mad Christian nationalist sheriff on “Fargo.” He could win one — or both. The last time Hamm gave an acceptance speech was also the first time he made his way to the podium. After eight nominations for playing Don Draper on “Mad Men,” Hamm won for the show’s final season in 2015.