Why Jaguars are confident they can recapture AFC South crown in 2024

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Despite the disappointing way their 2023 season ended, the Jacksonville Jaguars believe they will be back in the mix for an AFC South championship this season.

After losing five of six games to finish 9-8 and cede the division crown to the Houston Texans (10-7), the Jags knew big changes were needed. So head coach Doug Pederson hired a new defensive staff, while general manager Trent Baalke targeted veteran leaders from winning programs in free agency to improve the locker room’s ability to withstand adversity. Then, the Jaguars handed out big-money extensions to a trio of their best players: quarterback Trevor Lawrence, pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen and, most recently, cornerback Tyson Campbell.

Of course, the headliner was Lawrence’s five-year, $275 million contract that had been looming overhead for the past year. By taking care of their franchise quarterback after his third season — when he first became eligible for an extension — the Jaguars eradicated a potential distraction and allowed Lawrence to simply focus on the field.

“To know you’ve got that position locked up for the next seven years is obviously important,” Baalke told The Athletic recently. “From that standpoint, it was awesome.”

After a rocky rookie season under Urban Meyer, Lawrence solidified his value in 2022 when the Jaguars finished with six wins in seven games before mounting an incredible 27-point comeback victory against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. The Jaguars then hung with the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the next round before falling 27-20, while Lawrence finished seventh in the MVP voting and earned his first Pro Bowl nod.

Lawrence was playing well again during the Jags’ 8-3 start to 2023 before he was slowed by a barrage of injuries, including a high ankle sprain, a concussion and an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder.

“It affected him, and of course, it affected us as a team because he couldn’t practice on a Wednesday or a Thursday,” Pederson told The Athletic. “I’m a big believer that if you don’t get those reps, especially as a quarterback, it’s really hard to go out and perform at a high level on game day. I know it affected him.”

That’s why getting Lawrence healthy — and keeping him that way — is No. 1 on the Jaguars’ list of things to do to improve this season. They know a healthy Lawrence will go a long way in keeping them in the heat of the playoff race.

“He was in a really good place (before the injuries),” Pederson said. “The injuries did take a toll on him toward the back half of the season. He wasn’t the same quarterback. (In the first half), he was making good decisions. He was taking care of the football. We were helping him as an offense, too. Everybody was involved. One guy can’t do it all, and we don’t ask him to do it all.

“He’s just got to keep leading the football team. He’s done a nice job for us the last couple of seasons. He’s being more vocal, which we’ve asked him to do. Schematically with game planning, he’ll continue to grow there.”

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The Jaguars are expecting to take a big step forward on defense, as well. After the season, Pederson fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and several members of his staff. He replaced Caldwell with former Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, a fiery personality who led an aggressive pass rush during his stints with the Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

The hope is to heighten the intensity around Hines-Allen, edge rusher Travon Walker and key free-agent pickup, defensive tackle Arik Armstead.

“I love those guys who I let go,” Pederson said. “I was the one who hired them here back in 2022. But we’re in a better place today. We’ll see how camp goes. We’ll see as the season unfolds the type of defense and the offense we’re going to be and would like to be. What I’ve seen so far has been positive, and we’ve just got to keep that rolling.”

They’ve also got to be much less charitable with the ball. The Jaguars’ 30 turnovers last season were the fifth-most in the NFL. They lost the turnover battle nine times, including each of their last four losses, which stung even more considering they finished a game shy of Houston.

So as the team-building process began, they zeroed in on players with proven reputations as leaders who have histories as winners. It led them to guys like Armstead (previously with the San Francisco 49ers), cornerback Darnell Savage (Green Bay Packers), center Mitch Morse (Buffalo Bills) and wide receiver Gabe Davis (Bills).

“Improve the locker room, the leadership, the presence, to build a team that trusts each other, that is loyal to each other, that is committed to each other,” Baalke said. “Bring in guys who have been there and done it. We have a young team, so … if we were going to bring in guys from outside the team who weren’t drafted by us, we wanted to get leaders who came from good programs and have had success in this league at a high level.”

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Remember, the Jaguars were 15-5, including the playoffs, from Week 12 in 2022 to Week 12 in 2023. They believe they’re closer to that team than the one that both literally and figuratively limped down the stretch.

If their offseason plan pans out, they should be able to prove that.

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(Photo of Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)