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Top 45 MLB free agents for 2024-25 with contract predictions, team fits: Will Soto get $600M+?
MLB free agency is almost here so it’s time for my annual ranking of the top free agents with contract predictions and the best team fits for each player. Eligible players technically become free agents the day after the World Series ends but cannot sign with a new team until five days after the final out.
This year’s free-agent class will be headlined by Juan Soto, whom many in the industry expect to sign a contract in the $550 million to $650 million range. The top of the pool could feature four front-of-the-rotation pitchers, including Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and perhaps even Roki Sasaki, if the soon-to-be 23-year-old phenom makes it to free agency. In terms of position players, this class will have a pair of prominent power hitters in first baseman Pete Alonso and right fielder Anthony Santander and a couple of impact two-way corner infielders in first baseman Christian Walker and third baseman Alex Bregman.
This list will change between now and the start of free agency. Some of these players will come off the board if they decide not to opt out of their contracts or their clubs exercise options. Some could decide to retire. In addition, more international players could join the eventual class. (For this ranking, I’ve included any player who could reach free agency this November, even if in some cases that outcome is unlikely.)
Along with my colleagues at The Athletic, I will be actively covering free agency and the trade season from start to finish, so let’s discuss the current landscape. Here is my ranking of the top 45 free agents for the 2024-25 offseason, with my thoughts on the players as well as information from my conversations with decision-makers across the game. What types of contracts could these players command? These are my initial projections.
(Note: Players’ ages are as of Oct. 24. WAR is according to Baseball Reference as of Oct. 24.)
1. Juan Soto, OF
Age: 25
B: L T: L HT: 6-2 WT: 225
2024 (Yankees): 7.9 WAR
Career: 36.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $31 million
Has Juan Soto found his permanent home with the Yankees? Can they keep him after a strong platform year? He certainly lived up to expectations in his first year in the Bronx, slashing .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and a league-leading 128 runs scored. He’s expected to finish third in the American League MVP voting behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. He’s met the big moments in this postseason and has logged a 1.106 OPS.
By all indications, he’s poised to become the second-highest-paid player in baseball history, behind only Shohei Ohtani. He’s a generational talent who will hit free agency at only 26 and should be able to land a 15-year deal. Most executives believe he’ll end up somewhere between $550 million and $650 million, which will probably limit his market to both New York teams and possibly the Blue Jays. Other teams such as the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals also could emerge for Soto.
Best team fits: Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Ohtani (10 years, $700M); Mike Trout (12 years, $426M); Mookie Betts (12 years, $365M); Judge (9 years, $360M)
Contract prediction: 15 years, $622 million
2. Corbin Burnes, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Orioles): 3.4 WAR
Career: 17.2 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $15.64 million
This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February. He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason.
Best team fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles
Salary comps: Stephen Strasburg (7 years, $245M); Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185M); Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $247 million
3. Roki Sasaki, RHP
Age: 22
HT: 6-2 WT: 187
It is unclear if Roki Sasaki’s team in Japan, the Chiba Lotte Marines, will allow him to leave for MLB this offseason, but with the Marines out of the NPB playoffs, we should know soon. If he is coming, he will be the most coveted international free agent as the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all committed significant resources to scout him this month, including sending top executives to see him pitch.
How much teams would be willing to offer Sasaki could depend on his medical reports as he didn’t pitch for two months in the middle of the year because of arm troubles, which limited him to 18 games and 111 innings. (He pitched just 91 innings in 2023 due to an oblique injury and has topped the 100-inning mark only once in his career.)
However, he dominated down the stretch this season, averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and reaching 103 mph. Since Sasaki is under 25, he would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions; if he’s posted after this season, he’d only be allowed to sign a minor-league contract, which is what Ohtani did with the Angels in 2017.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks, Red Sox
Salary comps: None
Contract prediction: Minor-league contract
4. Gerrit Cole, RHP
Age: 34
HT: 6-4 WT: 220
2024 (Yankees): 2.0 WAR
Career: 43.3 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $36 million
Gerrit Cole will not be a free agent this offseason, but I’ve included him in this list because he has the right to opt out of his contract and could theoretically reach the open market. That won’t happen though, as he’s in line to make $36 million a year with the Yankees through 2028, which he could not match in free agency.
Cole spent 2 1/2 months on the injured list and is not fully back to his usual level of performance but seems to be getting better the more he pitches. His four-seam fastball was at 97 mph in the seventh inning of the Yankees’ clinching win over Kansas City in the Division Series, with elite spin at the top of the zone. Cole will start Game 1 of the World Series, and although I don’t expect him to dominate, he should pitch well enough to give the Yankees a chance to win.
Prediction: Cole won’t opt out of his contract
5. Max Fried, LHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-4 WT: 190
2024 (Braves): 3.5 WAR
Career: 24.1 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $15 million
Max Fried has a career record of 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He’s made two All-Star teams, won two Gold Glove awards and finished top-five in the Cy Young Award voting twice. He’s made 28 to 30 starts in three of the last four seasons but has dealt with injuries, including left forearm neuritis each of the last two years. Therefore, his medical reports will determine whether he lands a market-rate deal or has to take a lesser contract. The Braves have tried over the last several years to extend Fried to no avail. They’ll keep trying this offseason and wait to see how he fares in the market, but they definitely want him back.
Best team fits: Braves, Orioles, Mets, Red Sox
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M)
Contract prediction: 6 years, $174 million
6. Pete Alonso, 1B
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Mets): 2.6 WAR
Career: 19.8 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $20.5 million
Pete Alonso’s value spiked after he performed this postseason in the biggest moments, including hitting three opposite-field home runs during the Mets’ magical run. He’s beloved in New York and the feeling is mutual. I think a return to the Mets is inevitable, but several contending teams would love to have his 40-homer bat in the middle of their lineups.
Best team fits: Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Nationals
Salary comps: Matt Olson (8 years, $168M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Kris Bryant (7 years, $182M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $204 million
7. Alex Bregman, 3B
Age: 30
B: R T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 190
2024 (Astros) 4.1 WAR
Career: 39.6 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $20 million
Alex Bregman would love to finish his career as an Astro, but will the organization do enough to keep him? Houston has a history in free agency of saying goodbye to its star players, such as Carlos Correa and George Springer, who both departed when the Astros weren’t willing to commit to the long-term contracts they could land elsewhere.
Bregman is a proven leader with elite skills in not chasing out of the strike zone. He has all the intangibles that winning organizations want. His market range is well-defined — somewhere between what the Giants gave Matt Chapman last month and Nolan Arenado’s contract with the Rockies/Cardinals. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the team will make Bregman an offer, but will it be close to how the rest of the industry views him?
Best team fits: Astros, Yankees, Nationals, Mariners, Tigers
Salary comps: Matt Chapman (6 years, $151M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $185.5 million
8. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Giants): 2.1 WAR
Career: 23.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $32 million
Snell was looking for a long-term contract last offseason, but most executives were concerned about his track record, which includes making 30 or more starts only twice in a nine-year career and never pitching more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. However, in the two years he did make 30 starts (2018, 2023), he won a Cy Young Award both times.
This year he dealt with injuries early but performed well after returning in July; he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 2.43 FIP over 20 starts. Snell will pitch at age 32 next year and I think his lack of durability — he’s pitched more than 130 innings in a season only once since 2018 — will again prevent him from getting a long-term contract. However, after opting out of his $30 million player option, he’ll be able to sign a better deal.
Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Giants
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M); José Berríos (7 years, $131M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $105 million
9. Freddy Peralta, RHP
Age: 28
HT: 6-0 WT: 202
2024 (Brewers): 2.6 WAR
Career: 8.9 WAR
Agent: Rep 1 Baseball 2024 salary: $5.7 million
Freddy Peralta will not make it to free agency but I’ll include him in this list until the Brewers exercise their $8 million team option for 2025. Peralta pitched to a 3.68 ERA over 32 starts this season, with 200 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings. Milwaukee also holds an $8 million team option for 2026.
Prediction: Brewers will exercise $8 million team option for 2025
10. Anthony Santander, RF
Age: 30
B: B T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 230
2024 (Orioles): 2.9 WAR
Career: 11.1 WAR
Agent: GSE Worldwide 2024 salary: $11.7 million
A lot of teams are looking for corner outfielders with power and there won’t be a lot of those players available via free agency or trades. This season Santander had 44 home runs, 102 RBIs and 91 runs scored, all of which were career highs. He’s hit 105 homers over the past three seasons and is still only 30.
Best team fits: Orioles, Nationals, Reds, Blue Jays, Mariners
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (6 years, $150M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $150.5 million
11. Willy Adames, SS
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 219
2024 (Brewers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 21.5
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $12.25 million
I expected Willy Adames to be traded to the Dodgers after Corey Seager departed as a free agent in 2021, but it never happened because the Brewers remained a contender and never made him available. With Adames now reaching free agency, the Dodgers should be viewed as heavy favorites to land him. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman had Adames in his organization for a couple of years when he was GM of the Rays and has always been a big fan of the player. Adames is a perfect fit for the left side of the Dodgers’ infield.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves
Salary comps: Dansby Swanson (7 years, $177M); Javier Báez (6 years, $140M); Trevor Story (6 years, $140M)
Contract prediction: 6 years, $150 million
12. Marcell Ozuna, DH
Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 225
2024 (Braves): 4.3 WAR
Career: 27.7 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $18 million
Marcell Ozuna was the Braves’ best offensive player this season, slashing .302/.378/.546 with 31 doubles and 39 home runs, and was the league’s second-best designated hitter behind Ohtani. The Braves hold a club option for $16 million for 2025 and they’re expected to exercise it, which will remove Ozuna from my next ranking.
Prediction: Braves will exercise $16 million club option for 2025
13. Christian Walker, 1B
Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 208
2024 (Diamondbacks): 2.6
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $10.9 million
Christian Walker is one of the best first basemen in the sport. Despite his years of production, he’s never made an All-Star team; I thought he was the biggest All-Star snub this summer. The two-time Gold Glove Award winner is in line to win his third after leading NL first basemen in outs above average.
Despite missing more than a month with an oblique injury, he finished the season with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs in 130 games. It was the third year in a row he’s hit at least 25 bombs and posted an OPS+ over 120. Several teams have early interest in Walker, with the Astros and Mariners being the best early team fits.
Best team fits: Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Mets
Salary comps: Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $72 million
14. Cody Bellinger, CF
Age: 29
B: L T: L HT: 6-4 WT: 203
2024 (Cubs): 2.2 WAR
Career: 24.5 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $30 million
Cody Bellinger didn’t get the long-term deal he sought last offseason and again will probably have to take a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value if he opts out of his three-year deal. The reason: He’s hit 20 or more home runs only once in five years and his production varies dramatically from year to year.
Bellinger has won an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Slugger awards, a Gold Glove Award and has been an All-Star twice in his eight-year career. However, his slash line over the past three seasons has been a roller coaster ride, which makes it difficult for teams to assess which version they would be getting in the coming years. Bellinger’s ability to play above-average defense at all three outfield positions and first base improves his market value.
Best team fits: Cubs, Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Angels, Astros, Pirates, Phillies, Nationals
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (5 years, $150M); Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Kyle Schwarber (4 years, $79M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $112 million
15. Shane Bieber, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 200
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 17.7 WAR
Agent: Rosenhaus Sports Representation 2024 salary: $13.13 million
Shane Bieber will likely be my pick for best value signing this offseason because of his upside. The AL Cy Young Award winner in 2020, he finished fourth in the voting in 2019 and seventh in 2022. He’s a two-time All-Star and a former Gold Glove winner.
He made only two starts this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will put him out of service until at least next summer. However, if he comes back healthy, whoever signs him might have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for the second half of the season.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Padres
Salary comps: N/A. I don’t see a good comp for Bieber in his specific situation.
Contract prediction: Low base salary with incentives for games started and innings pitched, plus option years
16. Sean Manaea, LHP
Age: 32
HT: 6-5 WT: 245
2024 (Mets): 3.0 WAR
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $14.5 million
I don’t think there’s another player who increased his free-agent value more this year than Sean Manaea, who did so thanks to significant mechanical changes that led to a crossfire-type delivery. Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 184 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings. He had a .185 batting average against and 0.938 WHIP in the second half of the season, then largely pitched well in three of his four postseason outings, including a dominant NLDS start against the Phillies in which he allowed one run and three hits in seven innings. He has a $13.5 million player option for 2025 that he will decline.
Best team fits: Mets, Orioles, Twins
Salary comps: Hyun Jin Ryu (4 years, $80M); Eduardo Rodriguez (4 years, $80M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million
17. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Tigers, Dodgers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 13.2 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $14 million
Jack Flaherty was the best starting pitcher traded at the deadline after logging a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 18 starts for the Tigers, who dealt him because he was an impending free agent and they didn’t think they were a contender. (What a run they had!)
The Tigers had a preliminary trade agreement in place with the Yankees, but New York backed out of the deal over concerns about his medical records. Flaherty was then traded to the Dodgers, who had no problem with the medical risk. He delivered for the Dodgers and was their best starter for the rest of the regular season, going 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts.
He showed his ability to miss bats this season with 194 strikeouts (in 162 innings), his highest total since 2019, when he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s only 29. If teams aren’t concerned about the medical risk associated with his back issues, he should land a three-year pact.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Mets, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Lance McCullers Jr. (5 years, $85M); Mitch Keller (5 years, $77M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Pablo López (4 years, $73.5M); Kyle Hendricks (4 years, $55.5M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million
18. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP
Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 198
Tomoyuki Sugano has gone 136-75 with a 2.45 ERA and 1,596 strikeouts in 12 NPB seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. This year he logged a 1.67 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 24 starts. He is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, which in Japan is equivalent to the Cy Young Award. Sugano has a six-pitch mix and he pounds the strike zone with elite command and control.
Best team fits: Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets
Salary comps: N/A
Contract prediction: None at this time
19. Michael Wacha, RHP
Age: 33
HT: 6-6 WT: 215
2024 (Royals): 3.5 WAR
Career: 16.6 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $16 million
Michael Wacha has been superb and consistent over the past three years, posting ERAs between 3.22 and 3.35 with double-digit wins each season, all while pitching on short-term contracts. His downward plane and changeup (.169 batting average against) are special. He ranked in the 99th percentile in offspeed run value and in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. Wacha has a $16 million player option for 2025 that I expect he’ll decline so he can enter free agency and land a multiyear contract.
Best team fits: Royals, Pirates, Orioles, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Jameson Taillon (4 years, $68M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M); Jon Gray (4 years, $56M); Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $54 million
20. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Age: 34
HT: 6-2 WT: 217
2024 (Rangers): 2.2 WAR
Career: 21.0 WAR
Agent: ACES 2024 salary: $16 million ($20 million player option for 2025)
Nathan Eovaldi had a 3.80 ERA over 29 starts and recorded 12 wins for the second consecutive season with the Rangers. He is expected to opt out of his contract, which was set to pay him $20 million in 2025, and instead will receive a $2 million buyout. I think he’ll get a two-year contract in free agency. Every contending team should be interested in him.
Best team fits: Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, Padres
Salary comps: Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Blake Snell (2 years, $62M); Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $42 million with a team option
21. Teoscar Hernández, LF
Age: 32
B: R T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 215
2024 (Dodgers): 4.3 WAR
Career: 17.1 WAR
Agent: Republik Sports 2024 salary: $23.5 million
Teoscar Hernández made a smart move last offseason in signing with the Dodgers. He accepted a one-year deal with a high AAV and got to join a loaded lineup filled with future Hall of Famers. Hernández then did what he does best — hit home runs, a career-high 33 of them, to go with 99 RBIs. He’s a below-average defender in left field but a strong clubhouse presence with his energy and enthusiasm.
Best team fit: Dodgers, Nationals, Tigers, Royals
Salary comps: George Springer (6 years, $150M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Jorge Soler (3 years, $42M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $75 million
22. Walker Buehler, RHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 185
2024 (Dodgers): -1.3 WAR
Career: 12.2 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $8.025 million
The way Walker Buehler pitched for much of the regular season (1-6, 5.38 ERA), it didn’t appear he would regain his past form after returning from a second Tommy John surgery. But he made a big impression in Game 3 of the NLCS, when he dominated the Mets over four shutout innings. Buehler will probably have to sign a one-year contract with a mutual option, then show he can pitch a full season healthy and rebuild his value.
Best team fit: Dodgers
Salary comps: None
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives
23. Tanner Scott, LHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-0 WT: 235
2024 (Marlins, Padres): 3.9 WAR
Career: 8.6 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $5.7 million
Tanner Scott will be the best left-handed high-leverage reliever on the free-agent market. He can be deployed at any time and in any role — closer, set up, match up — to get left- or right-handed hitters out. He had a banner year, registering a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances with 22 saves. Batters hit .134 against his four-seam fastball and .231 against his wipeout slider.
Best team fits: Padres, Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Royals, Nationals, Giants
Salary comps: Raisel Iglesias (4 years, $58M); Robert Suarez (5 years, $46M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $60 million
24. Jurickson Profar, LF
Age: 31
B: B T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 184
2024 (Padres): 3.7 WAR
Career: 8.5 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $1 million
Jurickson Profar was one of the best value signings of the 2023-24 offseason. He inked a one-year contract with the Padres for a base salary of $1 million, then had a career year, finishing second in the NL with a .380 on-base percentage. He hit .280 with 24 home runs, 29 doubles and 10 stolen bases. He also made his first All-Star team. A multiyear deal awaits.
Best team fits: Padres, Twins
Salary comps: Mitch Haniger (3 years, $43.5M); Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3 years, $42M); Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $44 million
25. Eugenio Suárez, 3B
Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 213
2024 (Diamondbacks) 3.1 WAR
Career: 23.6 WAR
Agent: Octagon 2024 salary: $11.285 million
The Diamondbacks acquired Eugenio Suárez from Seattle last offseason in hopes of improving their power. Suárez certainly delivered with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. He finished in the 96th percentile in sweet spot percentage and played solid defense at the hot corner, finishing in the 82nd percentile in range (outs above average). The Diamondbacks hold a $15 million option for 2025 ($2 million buyout) that they’ll likely pick up.
Best team fits: Diamondbacks, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Matt Chapman (6 years, $151M); Chris Taylor (4 years, $60M); Max Muncy (2 years, $24M)
Contract prediction: Diamondbacks exercise $15 million team option for 2025
26. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-6 WT: 228
War: -1.4
Career: 11.2 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $25 million
Jordan Montgomery ended up being the worst free-agent signing of last year’s class. He turned down a four-year offer from the Red Sox, instead agreeing to a one-year, $25 million deal with the Diamondbacks that included a $22.5 million player option for 2025. He had a disastrous year.
He went 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA and averaged just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, the worst rate of his eight-year career. Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick publicly said he hopes Montgomery doesn’t exercise his player option, but the lefty has little choice as no team would offer him a similar contract in free agency this offseason.
Best team fits: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Nationals
Salary comps: None
Prediction: Montgomery exercises 22.5 million player option and then the Diamondbacks try to trade him
27. Ha-Seong Kim, SS
Age: 28
B: R T: R HT: 5-9 WT: 168
2024 (Padres): 2.6 WAR
Career: 15.3 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $8 million
Ha-Seong Kim underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in September to repair a “small tear” in the labrum of his right (throwing) shoulder. He sustained the injury Aug. 18 while diving back to first base on a pick-off play. This season manager Mike Shildt moved Kim from second base, where he won a Gold Glove Award last year, to shortstop, which was a significant defensive upgrade for the Padres. However, Kim hit just .233 with 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases before going on the injured list. He might have to sign a “pillow contract” to show he’s recovered from the injury, then produce like he did in 2023, when he hit 17 home runs and stole 38 bases.
Best team fits: Padres, Brewers, Dodgers, Pirates
Salary comps: J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M); Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); Orlando Arcia (3 years, $7.3M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives and award bonuses
28. Gleyber Torres, 2B
Age: 27
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 205
2024 (Yankees): 1.8 WAR
Career: 16.1 WAR
Agent: Octagon 2024 salary: $14.2 million
Gleyber Torres has wanted to sign a long-term contract with the Yankees but there have never been serious negotiations to keep him in the Bronx for years to come. He is a below-average defender at second base with limited range. He hit .257 with 15 home runs and a 101 OPS+ on the season but batted over .300 when he was moved to the leadoff spot in September and has performed in October, slashing .297/.400/.432 in the playoffs.
Best team fits: Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Marlins
Salary comps: Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M)
Contract prediction: 4 years, $44 million
29. Tyler O’Neill, OF
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 200
2024 (Red Sox): 2.7 WAR
Career: 12.6
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $5.85 million
Tyler O’Neill is like Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger — when he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, he delivers. This year he slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs in 113 games. However, it was only the second somewhat healthy successful season of his seven-year career — his last one was in 2021 when he hit 34 home runs with the Cardinals, finished eighth in NL MVP voting and won his second Gold Glove Award.
O’Neill had multiple stints on the injured list this year and has played more than 100 games only twice. Despite coming off a productive season, that lack of availability will force him to sign another short-term contract.
Best team fit: Red Sox
Salary comps: Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Andrew Benintendi (5 years, $75M); Ian Happ (3 years, $61M); Jorge Soler (3 years, 42M); Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $32 million
30. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
Age: 33
HT: 6-0 WT: 210
2024 (Blue Jays, Astros): 1.4 WAR
Career: 4.1
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $10 million
Yusei Kikuchi was 4-9 with a 4.75 ERA over 22 starts with the Blue Jays, who dealt him to Houston at the trade deadline. The Astros quickly changed his pitch sequencing and usage and the results were astounding — he went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 3.07 FIP over 10 starts (60 innings). Kikuchi would be smart to re-sign with the Astros and the feeling should be mutual based on his results and the prospect package they traded to land him.
Best team fits: Astros, Orioles, Tigers, Twins
Salary comps: Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63.3 million; Miles Mikolas (3 years $55.75M); Seth Lugo (3 years; $45M); Tyler Anderson (3 years; $39M); Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $34M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $42 million
31. Brandon Lowe, 2B
Age: 30
B: L T: R HT: 5-10 WT: 185
2024 (Rays): 2.4 WAR
Career: 16.0 WAR
Agent: The Bledsoe Agency 2024 salary: $8.75 million
Brandon Lowe is another player who just can’t stay off the injured list; he’s played more than 110 games just once in his seven-year career and has averaged 108 games over the last two years. However, his power has been consistent during that span as he hit 21 homers in both years.
He’s only 30, and if he can stay healthy, his power plays, as it did in 2021 when he hit 39 home runs. He finished in the top 10 in AL MVP voting in 2020 and 2021 so there’s no denying his potential.
Tampa Bay holds a $10.5 million team option for 2025 ($1 million buyout) and an $11.5 million option ($500,000 buyout) for 2026. The Rays could certainly pick up the option, but if they don’t, Lowe could be a smart high-risk, high-reward type signing this winter.
Best team fits: Rays, Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Brandon Drury (2 years, $17M); Jorge Polanco (5 years, $25.75M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $24 million
32. Nick Martinez, RHP
Age: 34
HT: 6-1 WT: 201
2024 (Reds) War: 4.0 WAR
Career: 8.7 WAR
Agent: RMG Baseball 2024 salary: $14 million
Nick Martinez continues to improve and should land a three-year contract as a free agent this winter. He’s coming off a career-best year after going 10-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 16 starts and 26 relief appearances. Martinez hopes to become a full-time starter with his next team and he deserves that opportunity. He has posted an ERA below 3.50 in each of the past three seasons.
Best team fits: Reds, Padres, Tigers, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox
Salary comps: Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M); Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $40 million
33. Charlie Morton, RHP
Age: 40
HT: 6-5 WT: 214
2024 (Braves): 1.1 WAR
Career: 17.3 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $20 million
Charlie Morton is Mr. Consistency. In 2024 he reached the 30-starts mark for the sixth straight season. He posted a 4.19 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s weighed retirement in recent offseasons, will turn 41 in November and despite another solid season, the consensus around the Braves is that he will call it a career. But if he decides to return for his 18th major-league season, a one-year contract with Atlanta similar to his recent deals could work for both sides.
Best team fit: Braves
Salary comps: Frankie Montas, (1 year, $16M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $20 million
34. Joc Pederson, OF/DH
Age: 32
B: L T: L HT: 6-1 WT: 220
2024 (Diamondbacks): 2.9 WAR
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $12.5 million
Joc Pederson embraces his platoon role, excelling against right-handed pitching with an impressive .275/.392/.531 slash line and 22 homers in 407 plate appearances this season with the Diamondbacks. He has a $14 million mutual option for 2025 with a $3 million buyout, and I think it makes sense for him to take the buyout and try to sign a two-year deal on the open market.
Best team fit: Diamondbacks, Reds, Rockies
Salary comps: Rhys Hoskins (2 years, $34M); Mitch Garver (2 years, $24M); Justin Turner (1 year, $13M); J.D. Martinez (1 year, $12M); Charlie Blackmon (1 year, $13M
Contract prediction: 2 years, $26 million
35. Carlos Estévez, RHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-6 WT: 275
2024 (Angels, Phillies): 2.1 WAR
Career: 4.8 WAR
Agent: Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment 2024 salary: $6.75 million
Carlos Estévez had a strong free-agent walk year, posting a 2.38 ERA with the Angels before being traded at the deadline to Philadelphia, where he put up a 2.57 ERA over 20 games. He finished the season with 26 saves and 0.909 WHIP, but also averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, the lowest rate of his career.
Estévez has 82 career saves and will generate plenty of interest from teams looking for high-leverage relievers. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said it’s unlikely the club will bring back both Estévez and Jeff Hoffman, who is ranked 43rd on this list.
Best team fits: Phillies, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Pirates
Salary comps: Kendall Graveman (3 years, $24M); José Alvarado (3 years, $22M); Joe Jiménez (3 years, $26M); Ryan Pressly (2 years, $30M); Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $33 million
36. Luis Severino, RHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 218
2024 (Mets): 1.6 WAR
Career: 13.4 WAR
Agent: Rep 1 Baseball 2024 salary: $13 million
Luis Severino had a strong comeback season, making more than 30 starts for the first time since 2018. He went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA over 31 starts and struck out 161 in 182 innings. The two-time All-Star also was solid in the postseason (3.24 ERA in 16 2/3 innings), which can only increase interest in free agency.
Best team fits: Mets, Tigers, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox
Salary comps: Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M); Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M); Zach Eflin (3 years, $40M); Lucas Gioloto (2 years, $38.5M); Marcus Stroman (2 years, $37M); Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $34M); Reynaldo López, (3 years, $30M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $32 million
37. Jose Quintana, LHP
Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 220
2024 (Mets): 2.5 WAR
Career: 30.5
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $13 million
Jose Quintana was brilliant in his first two starts of this postseason, adding, subtracting and hitting his spots; he allowed no earned runs in 11 combined innings against the Brewers and Phillies.
The soft-tossing lefty pitched to a 3.75 ERA over 31 starts in the regular season, finishing in the 83rd percentile in overall pitching run value and in the 89th percentile in fastball run value. He has good late movement downward that leads to groundballs, ranking in the 79th percentile in ground-ball rate. Over his last 76 starts across three seasons, he has a combined ERA of under 3.50.
Best team fits: Mets, Pirates, Tigers, Twins
Salary comps: Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M); Tyler Mahle (2 years, $22M); Sean Manaea (2 years, $28M); Michael Wacha (2 years, $32M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $28 million
38. Blake Treinen, RHP
Age: 36
HT: 6-0 WT: 224
2024 (Dodgers): 1.4 WAR
Career: 12.4 WAR
Agent: Apex Baseball 2024 salary: $1 million ($4.5M AAV for two-year, $9M deal)
After missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 because of a torn capsule in his right shoulder that eventually required surgery, Blake Treinen miraculously returned this season as the dominant high-leverage reliever he was in 2021. His sinker is back to the mid-90s with serious drop, and his sweeper is a wipeout pitch that batters hit just .120 against. He posted a 1.93 ERA in 50 appearances.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs
Salary comps: Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta, (2 years, $16.5M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $17 million
39. Alex Verdugo, LF
Age: 28
B: L T: L HT: 6-0 WT: 210
2024 (Yankees): 0.7 WAR
Career: 11.8
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $8.7 million
Alex Verdugo is well-liked and respected by his teammates, brings high energy to the clubhouse, plays with an edge and is a solid defender in left field. Offensively, he had a down season, slashing just .233/.291/.356. His power is pretty consistent as he has provided between 11 and 13 home runs in the last five full seasons. He plays every day, never complains and is the definition of an average major-league player.
Best team fits: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Mariners
Salary comps: Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M); Mark Canha (2 years, $26.5M); Manuel Margot (2 years, $19M); Hunter Renfroe (2 years, $13M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $26 million
40. Jose Iglesias, 2B
Age: 34
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 195
2024 (Mets): 3.1 WAR
Career: 14.8 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports 2024 salary: $983,871
I’ll admit it: I love Jose Iglesias’ song “OMG.” And all I can say is OMG when it comes to his season, which put him in the conversation for NL Comeback Player of the Year, though the award will probably go to Chris Sale.
After not playing in the majors in 2023, Iglesias signed a minor-league contract with the Mets but was their starting second baseman by the end of year, playing in more than half of their games and slashing an amazing .337/.381/.448 (137 OPS+) with 16 doubles. He impressed with his approach at the plate — going the other way and grinding throughout at-bats — and his elite defense in the middle of the infield. Iglesias would be a good pickup for several teams, but a reunion with the Mets just makes too much sense for all parties.
Best team fit: Mets
Salary comps: Brandon Drury (2 years, $17M); Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2 years, $15M); Miguel Rojas (2 years, $11M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $12 million
41. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Age: 37
B: R T: R HT: 6-3 WT: 224
2024 (Cardinals): 1.3 WAR
Career: 62.8 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $26 million
Nothing in baseball makes me sadder than to watch superstar players significantly decline. Time is undefeated, but they want to keep playing because they can still contribute.
In his prime, Paul Goldschmidt was the best first baseman in the sport. Just two years ago he was the NL MVP, leading the league with a .981 OPS. The seven-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner and five-time Silver Slugger is obviously no longer at the level. His on-base percentage has plummeted over the past three years, from .404 to .363 to .302.
He still played more than 150 games this season, which he’s done in nine consecutive full seasons, but perhaps it’s time to reduce that number and try to improve production with more rest and more time as a designated hitter. The Cardinals are not expected to re-sign Goldschmidt, and for the first time in his career, he needs to brace himself for a significant pay cut and a one-year deal.
Best team fits: Yankees, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Brewers
Salary comps: Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M); Josh Bell (2 years, $33M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $15 million
42. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/DH
Age: 31
B: R T: R HT: 6-4 WT: 240
2024 (Brewers): -0.2 WAR
Career: 11.0 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $16 million
Rhys Hoskins held his own in his first year back from ACL surgery, providing much-needed power in the middle of the Brewers’ lineup. He slashed .214/.303/.419 with a career-low .722 OPS but did hit 26 homers and drive in 82 runs. I expect him to be a lot better next season, with the benefit of an extra year of recovery for his left knee.
Hoskins signed a two-year, $34 million deal with Milwaukee last winter and can opt out after this season. He’ll need to sign another short-term contract to try to rebuild his value.
Best team fits: Brewers, Mariners, Twins
Salary comps: Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M); Josh Bell (2 years, $33M); Mitch Garver (2 years, $24M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $34 million
43. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-5 WT: 235
2024 (Phillies): 2.0 WAR
Career: 3.5 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $2.2 million
Jeff Hoffman had the best year of his career, making the All-Star team and tallying a 2.17 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in 68 games. He struck out 89 in 66 1/3 innings (12.1 strikeouts per nine). However, he fared poorly in this postseason, allowing six runs in 1 1/3 innings over three games. The Phillies are unlikely to bring back both Hoffman and Carlos Estévez.
Best team fits: Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Giants
Salary comps: Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M); Joe Jiménez (3 years, $26M); Kendall Graveman (3 years, $24M); Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta (2 years, $16.5M); Matt Strahm (2 years, $15M); Chris Martin (2 years, $13.5M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $27 million
44. Matthew Boyd, LHP
Age: 33
HT: 6-3 WT: 230
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 9.9 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $10 million
Matthew Boyd really increased his value in the postseason as he logged a 0.77 ERA over three starts (11 2/3 innings). With a deceptive delivery and an arsenal that includes a fastball, changeup and slider, Boyd commands the strike zone well, adding and subtracting with unique shapes and sizes. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023 but now looks healthy with a good mindset.
Best team fits: Guardians, Tigers, Orioles, Padres, Braves, Red Sox
Salary comps: Lance Lynn (1 year, $11M); Kyle Gibson (1 year, $13M)
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million
45. Clay Holmes, RHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-5 WT: 245
2024 (Yankees): 0.7 WAR
Career: 4.2 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $6 million
Clay Holmes appeared in more than 60 games for the third consecutive season, posting 30 saves before losing the closer job in August to Luke Weaver. However, he rebounded near the end of the season and performed well in high-leverage spots in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. He allowed only one run in his final eight appearances of the regular season and finished with a 3.14 ERA.
Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Royals, Phillies
Salary comps: Ryan Pressly (2 years, $30M); Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M); Wandy Peralta (2 years, $16.5M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $18.5 million
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Corbin Burnes: G Fiume / Getty Images; Juan Soto: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos / Getty Images; Pete Alonso: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos / Getty Images)
Culture
‘A long road. A big mountain to climb’: Inside Matt Murray’s emotional journey back to the NHL
BUFFALO, N.Y. — Matt Murray looked up to the scoreboard above him, counted down the seconds as they disappeared and finally pumped his fist.
It had been 638 days since Murray last felt the feeling washing over him.
Bilateral hip surgery forced the Toronto Maple Leafs goalie out of the entire 2023-24 season, the final of a four-year contract. There was no guarantee the oft-injured Murray would play in the NHL again. A one-year contract offered him a lifeline to continue grinding far out of the spotlight in the AHL, with only one goal.
And over a year and a half later, Murray was back to where he had fought to be: in the NHL win column after stopping 24 shots in a 6-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres.
“A long road. A big mountain to climb. But I kept this moment in the front of my mind on the days it felt tough,” Murray said.
The 30-year-old’s eyes grew more red with every word he spoke after the game. His voice quivered.
“A big release,” he said, struggling to find the words to put nearly two years away from the NHL into perspective. “A rush of emotions.”
The typical goalie hugs with teammates after the win were tighter, longer. In a physical game where a player’s career can turn on a dime, Murray’s return resonated far more heavily than the 2 points the Leafs also added on the day.
“It’s good to see (Murray) smiling,” Steven Lorentz said, “because you know he’s back doing what he loves.”
In the dressing room, Max Domi immediately handed Murray the team’s WWE-style wrestling belt as player of the game. Murray’s up-and-down performance was secondary.
“He was getting that thing, 100 percent, he deserved it,” Domi said. “The ability to stick with it mentally, out of all those days that I’m sure he had a lot of doubt, it’s a long road to recovery. We’re all super proud of him.”
It’s easy to quantify just how long Murray’s road back to the NHL was in days: 628 of them between his last two appearances.
It’s far more difficult to accurately describe just how arduous that road is.
Injuries have dogged Murray throughout his career after winning back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in his first two seasons in the NHL with the Pittsburgh Penguins. His games played tapered off every season from 2018 to 2022. After he was traded to the Leafs in summer 2022, he struggled through his first season. It was fair to wonder whether hip surgery would be the final dagger in his NHL career.
But Murray would still hang around teammates at the Leafs’ practice facility during his rehabilitation last season, feeling so close but so far away from the league he once conquered.
“The fact that he’s just on his way back here says a lot about his character, his dedication to the game,” Lorentz said.
Murray kept a stall full of his gear at that facility that was never used. An important and humane gesture from the Leafs organization, but still a reminder that Murray was not playing NHL games.
Even after re-signing with the Leafs on a one-year, $875,000 deal, he felt like the organization’s No. 4 goalie. When the Leafs needed a netminder to replace the injured Anthony Stolarz, they called up Dennis Hildeby. The lanky Hildeby is seven years’ Murray’s junior.
How could Murray not wonder whether his NHL return would ever come?
“There were definitely times when it felt really difficult,” Murray said. “But whenever I felt like that, I had a great group of people around me. That’s the only reason why I’m here.”
All Murray could do was work his tail off, far away from public sight, quietly hoping for the return that finally came Friday night.
“The emotions were high today,” Murray said.
Those emotions perhaps ran highest before the game. The typically stoic Murray allowed himself to stop and appreciate how far he’s come.
“I was able to take a moment in warmups and during the anthem and look around and appreciate the long journey that it’s been and think of all the people who helped me get here,” Murray said.
It was the kind of game that reminded onlookers of the fragility of an NHL career. Just a few short years separated Murray from being a Stanley Cup winner to being largely written off from the NHL, all essentially before the age of 30.
“You feel for a guy like that because he works so hard and he wants it so bad,” Lorentz said. “We’re all rooting for him.”
Murray moved well enough in his return. He swallowed most of the 27 shots the Sabres threw at him, looking every bit the veteran he is. Murray had two goals against called back upon video review. His sprawling save on Sabres forward Alex Tuch was a reminder of the athleticism he can provide now that he’s fully healthy, too.
They’re all qualities Leafs fans might have forgotten. But they’re qualities that are still front of mind for Murray’s Leafs teammates.
“It hasn’t been forgotten in my mind what he’s accomplished in this league in his career,” Leafs forward Max Pacioretty said, himself no stranger to debilitating injuries that threaten a career. “It’s hard to almost remember what you’ve done, what you’ve accomplished because it seems like all the noise is always in the moment, whether it’s the injury or what has happened lately.”
Perhaps the Leafs win could have been predicted ahead of time. Sure, they were playing a reeling Sabres team that has now sputtered through 12 losses in a row. And they were buoyed by an upstart, white-hot line of Max Domi, Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson. They’re the third line in name only: The trio combined for three goals and 6 points against the Sabres.
But the opponent shouldn’t denigrate what was front of mind not just for Murray but also for the Leafs in Buffalo. They wanted to do right by a player who has done everything in his power to return to the NHL. You didn’t have to squint to see a defenceman like Jake McCabe throwing Sabres out of Murray’s crease with a little extra gusto.
“It gives you some incentive to go the extra mile because you know (Murray) has gone that extra mile just to get back to this position to where he’s at right,” Lorentz said. “It’s not like he half-assed it to get back to this point and he expected to be here. Surgeries and injuries like that, that he went through, that can stunt your career for a long time. You might never be able to recover to your old form.”
But Murray is working on getting back to the Matt Murray of old. And the Leafs’ need for Murray won’t end when they head north on the QEW back to Toronto.
The earliest Stolarz will likely return from a knee injury will be mid-to-late January. Hildeby doesn’t exactly have the full confidence of the Leafs organization right now after allowing a few soft goals during a recent call-up against the Sabres at home, combined with a less-than-stellar AHL season so far. He’s likely going to be an NHL player down the road, but there’s room for him to grow and develop more confidence in his game.
But Murray has what no other goalie in the Leafs organization has: experience. And that matters to Brad Treliving and Craig Berube: Both value games played and would rather lean on veterans whenever possible.
They’ll lean on Murray because of everything he’s done, and gone through, in his career.
After Friday night, that career looks drastically different.
“In reality, you’ve got to take each day as it comes and you never know when it’s going to be all over,” Pacioretty said. “So you don’t want to take days for granted.”
After Murray had dried his eyes and slowly taken off the pounds of goalie gear heavy with sweat, he sat on his own in the dressing room. The Leafs equipment staff all stopped unloading bags from the dressing room to give him a quiet pat on the back.
Murray looked up to see a note written on a whiteboard in the dressing room. The Leafs bus would be leaving in 20 minutes. There was another NHL game on the horizon.
He could smile once again knowing it certainly won’t be 628 days between being able to do what he loved.
(Top photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
Culture
How Merseyside became America’s 51st state
Beyond the dust of Liverpool’s dock road and the huge lorries rolling in and out of the city’s port, the glass panels of Everton’s new home at the Bramley-Moore Dock sparkle impressively, radiating ambition.
The site, expected to open next year, is a feat of engineering considering the narrow dimensions of the fresh land below it, where old waters have been drained to create a 52,888-capacity arena that has been earmarked to host matches at the 2028 European Championship.
The Everton Stadium, as it is currently known, has been nearly 30 years in the making and nothing about its construction has been straightforward. There were three other proposed sites — including one outside Liverpool’s city boundaries, in Kirkby — which never materialised; a sponsorship deal collapsing due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; three owners, Peter Johnson, Bill Kenwright and Farhad Moshiri, departing; and several flirtations with relegation.
Ultimately, Dan Friedkin, a Texan-based billionaire, will have the honour of being in post when it is inaugurated after his group’s long-awaited takeover was completed on Thursday.
It has been a momentous week for Everton, and for the region as a whole. The Friedkin Group’s takeover means both of Merseyside’s Premier League clubs are now controlled by Americans. Meanwhile, a third, League Two side Tranmere Rovers, could join them if the English Football League (EFL) ratifies a takeover by a consortium led by Donald Trump’s former lawyer Joe Tacopina.
In football terms, Liverpool is on the verge of becoming the USA’s 51st state — the name of the 2001 movie starring Samuel L Jackson and Robert Carlyle, which was filmed in the city and used Anfield, the home of Liverpool FC, as a backdrop.
It is a huge cultural shift from the days — back when that film was released — when Liverpool and Everton had local owners and an American takeover of the city’s most celebrated sporting organisations seemed unthinkable.
And for all the excitement that Everton and Tranmere’s takeovers have generated, there remains an underlying caution — born of years of fear and frustration over the direction their clubs have taken — over what U.S. ownership will mean.
GO DEEPER
Inside Everton’s Friedkin takeover: From the precipice to fresh hope thanks to new U.S. owner
Everton is a club of contrasts.
Much of their mainly local support comes from some of the United Kingdom’s most economically challenged districts in the north end of Liverpool, near Walton where Goodison Park is located, and the ‘People’s Club’ — as former manager David Moyes christened them — has long taken pride in not being connected to big business, particularly in comparison to their near-neighbours Liverpool.
“One Evertonian is worth twenty Liverpudlians,” said former local captain Brian Labone, who led the team he supported as a boy in the 1960s.
Yet it hasn’t always been this way. At that time, it was Everton — not Liverpool — who were the city’s big spenders under their chairman John Moores, the founder of Littlewoods Pools. Then, their nickname was the ‘Mersey Millionaires’ and the club’s modus operandi was unapologetically ruthless: one manager, Johnny Carey, was sacked in the back of a taxi.
Moores would detail several innovations that would grow the sport, making it more attractive to business. They included the creation of a European Super League (sound familiar?), the rise of television, as well as the removal of the maximum wage, leaving a free market in which the best players would go to the richest clubs.
When Liverpool started to dominate English football and Goodison Park experienced a dip in gates, Moores tried to raise more cash. One of his solutions was to bring corporate hospitality to Goodison, as well as more advertising boards around the pitch but the move experienced pushback.
“Fans didn’t like it,” says Gavin Buckland, who recently published a book entitled The End, which looks at some of the longer-term causes of Everton’s struggles. “They felt the boards intruded on their match day routine — an in-your-face commercialism.”
Attitudes haven’t changed much since, in part because successive Everton owners haven’t been able to expand Goodison which is hemmed into Walton’s warren of terraced streets. Under Kenwright, Everton played on that reputation of the plucky underdog punching above its weight; it was only when Moshiri, a Monaco-based British-Iranian steel magnate, arrived as co-owner in 2016 that the waters were muddied.
Under Moshiri, Everton became two clubs in one. Like Kenwright, Moshiri operated from London but unlike the theatre impresario, he had no natural connection with Merseyside. While Moshiri aimed for the stars, spending big on players and managers, Kenwright — who remained chairman and still had influence until his death last year — had a more corner-shop mentality. There was a lack of clarity over decision-making.
Enter Friedkin. Perversely, Everton’s fallen state is a major reason they represent such an attractive proposition to the San Diego-born businessman, who identified them as one of, if not the last, purchasable English football club where there is room for significant growth.
On Merseyside, there is some concern about what this might mean: Americans have tended to develop dubious reputations as owners of English football clubs due to their appetite for driving non-football revenues and seeing their investments as content providers.
Will the new stadium, for example, become a shopping mall experience, complete with hiked-up ticket prices? Buckland speaks of a “cliff edge”, where Everton are moving into a new home, necessitating new routines for matchgoing fans, while a new foreign owner with a reputation for keeping his distance gets his feet under the table. For some, all of this at once might be too much.
Given that Friedkin cannot claim to have played a leading role in the stadium move, he is likely to be judged quickly on the team that he delivers. Any new revenue-driving schemes will only float if fortunes improve on the pitch, otherwise his priorities will be questioned.
For proof, simply look across Stanley Park. In 2016, thousands of Liverpool fans walked out of Anfield in the 77th minute of a Premier League game against Sunderland after FSG announced that some ticket prices in the stadium’s new Main Stand would be priced at £77.
Liverpool had won just one trophy in six years of FSG ownership at that point and local fans, especially, felt like their loyalty was being exploited, given the organisation’s policy of investing its own money in infrastructure but not the team. The protest led to an embarrassing climbdown.
Liverpool was once described by the Guardian newspaper as the “Bermuda Triangle of capitalism”. It has since been framed absolutely as a left-wing city even though voting patterns suggest it should be described as a dissenting one. Its football supporters, whether blue or red, tend to confront perceived injustices, especially if it involves outsiders making money at the expense of locals, and even more so if they are not delivering on the pitch.
FSG were only able to buy Liverpool at a knockdown price, which its former American owner Tom Hicks described as an “epic swindle”, due to the response of the supporters who unionised themselves in an attempt to drive both Hicks and his partner George Gillett out following a series of broken promises, as the club veered dangerously towards deep financial problems from 2008.
“The missteps of Hicks and Gillett put power in the hands of the fans,” reminds Gareth Roberts from Spirit of Shankly, the fans group which is still active 16 years after its formation and which now has members on the club’s official supporters board. The latter became enshrined in Liverpool’s articles of association after FSG apologised for its leading role in the attempt to create a European Super League in 2021.
This came after several other high-profile PR blunders that eroded trust. It remains to be seen whether figures like John W. Henry, FSG and Liverpool’s principle owner, will listen to the board rather than pay lip service and carry on regardless with his own plans. Roberts says the ongoing challenge is “getting them to understand the culture”, and it does not help the relationship when Henry’s business partner, Tom Werner (Liverpool’s chairman), speaks so enthusiastically about taking Premier League fixtures away from Anfield and potentially hosting them in other parts of the world.
There was a time when either Everton or Liverpool’s local owner not showing at a match would dominate conversations in pubs and get reported in the local paper. Now, that only happens if they actually turn up.
Leading FSG figures usually fly in from Boston, Massachusetts, attending a couple of games a season — Werner was at Liverpool’s recent game against Real Madrid, while Henry was in the stands for the first home game of the season against Brentford. They appoint executives and dispatch them to Merseyside, or London, where the club has long had an office, to run the business on their behalf. Such individuals are under pressure to drive revenues as far as they can, in theory improving the economic possibilities of the team.
Roberts says ticketing is an especially thorny issue at Liverpool due to the popularity of the club. It feels like locals are under attack: that there is a race to get the richest person’s bum onto a seat.
As far as Roberts is concerned, a club that markets its image from the energy that Anfield occasionally creates is treading on dangerous ground. “The Kop still has power,” he insists. “But if you squeeze the fans and they drop off, there is a risk that the place gets filled with spectators rather than supporters and with that, you kill the golden goose.”
This, he adds, should act as a warning to Evertonians as they embark on their own American adventure.
Like Roberts, Liverpool metro mayor Steve Rotheram is a season ticket holder at Anfield and he understands such anxieties. In October, he spent a fortnight in North America exploring trade opportunities and the experience made him realise how powerful a brand Liverpool has abroad due to its connections with football and music, as well as its central role as a port in the movement of the Irish diaspora that spread across the Atlantic in the 19th century.
He says such history helps start conversations with American businesses from sectors like bioscience and digital innovation, which are now interested in investing in Merseyside due to the availability of land near the waterfront on both sides of the Mersey river, a hangover from the harsh economic measures of the 1980s and the decline that followed.
Rotheram says football, especially, plays a significant role in the visitor economy to the region, which in 2018 was worth £6.2billion. A thriving Everton playing at a stadium that does a lot more than host football matches every fortnight has the potential to add to that pot. The site at Bramley-Moore promises to regenerate the area around it and, currently, there are small signs of that change. Now Everton’s immediate financial concerns have gone away, perhaps businesses hoping to move in can proceed with more confidence.
GO DEEPER
How Liverpool 2.01 was built – and FSG abandoned any plans to sell
To reach the third professional football club on Merseyside attracting American investment, you have to cross the river.
If Rotheram gets his way, a walkable bridge will connect Liverpool to Wirral, the home of Tranmere Rovers, and potentially boost the peninsula’s economy. But for the time being, there are just two transport options: a tunnel under the Mersey or, more pleasurably, a ferry which takes less than seven minutes to sail from the Pier Head, beneath the famous Liver Buildings, to Seacombe.
In the middle of this journey, as the ferry juts north, there is a different view of Everton’s new stadium, positioned between a scrapyard and a wind farm, both of which are in the shadow of a brooding tobacco warehouse that is the biggest brick building in the world. Everton’s new home is much closer to the city and might seem enormous from the land, glistening from whichever angle you look at it, but it does not dominate the skyline from the brown, scudding channels of the Mersey.
When the novelist Nathaniel Hawthorne sailed across the same stretch of water in 1854, he recalled a scene that he thought neatly captured the personality of the Liverpudlians he’d encountered over the previous six months, having been sent to the city as American consul.
There, on the ferry, was a labourer eating oysters using a jack knife taken from his pocket, tossing shell after shell overboard. Once satisfied, the labourer pulled out a clay pipe and started puffing away contentedly.
According to Hawthorne, the labourer’s “perfect coolness and independence” was mirrored by some of the other passengers. “Here,” Hawthorne wrote, “a man does not seem to consider what other people will think of his conduct but whether it suits his convenience to do so.”
Hawthorne did not specify whether the labourer was from Liverpool or the piece of land to the west now known as Wirral. To any outsider, the places and their residents tend to be viewed as one of the same.
On Merseyside, however, distinctions are made: Liverpudlians tend to identify themselves as tougher and sharper, while those from “over the water”, tend to have softer accents and are once removed from the struggles of the city.
In truth, both areas suffered in the late 1970s and 80s when unemployment ripped through its docks and shipyards. Whereas Liverpool’s city centre has been transformed in the decades since, the Wirral’s waterfront feels less promising. Whereas Liverpool has the Albert Dock, museums and a business district punctuated by glassy high rises, Wirral has very few distinguishable features from the river beyond its scaly, grey sea wall.
Three miles or so from the terminal in Seacombe lies Prenton, the home of Tranmere, a football club that returned to the Football League in 2018, having fallen on hard times since the early 1990s when it threatened to reach the Premier League.
That history is one of the reasons why an American consortium led by Tacopina has an application with the EFL to try and buy the club from former player, Mark Palios, who later acted as the chief executive of the English Football Association.
The Athletic reported in September that Tacopina was attempting to “harness the power of his celebrity contacts” to try to propel Tranmere up the divisions from League Two. In a report the following month, it was revealed on these pages that rapper A$AP Rocky and Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby were two of the investors.
According to a source involved in the deal, who would like to remain anonymous to protect working relationships, there is a belief the takeover will be completed in early 2025. While the source suggests it has taken longer than expected to reach this point after an unnamed investor dropped out, The Athletic has been told separately that an unnamed investor’s application was rejected by the EFL. This led to the buying group trying to source a replacement. The EFL declined to comment.
Tacopina has been involved in Italian football for a decade, with mixed success. He knows Tranmere is not a sexy name but neither was Wrexham before they were taken over by the Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney in 2021. While Tranmere has a fight this season to retain its Football League status, Tacopina would be taking on a club that more or less breaks even.
Palios is naturally cautious. For years, he’s wanted to find a minority partner but interested parties have tended to find there isn’t much up-side for such investment. Palios has since been able to convince Tacopina that Tranmere has significant potential with a full takeover, that the club has geography on its side and could become the region’s third wheel.
More than 500,000 people live on the Wirral but the majority cannot get tickets for Liverpool or Everton. There is an interest in Tranmere but many Wirral residents are only would-be fans. That would surely change with an upwardly mobile team, as Tranmere were in the 1990s when it tried to reach the top flight and a packed Prenton Park witnessed a series of exciting cup runs.
Tranmere is worth around £20million in assets. Even if the club reached the Championship, the gateway to the Premier League, the value would increase significantly, potentially leaving Tacopina with a profit if he decided to sell. Importantly, the stadium is owned by the club and Tacopina would be inheriting that. Tacopina takes confidence from the stories of clubs like Bournemouth and Brentford, who are now established in the Premier League despite playing in similar-sized stadiums to Prenton Park (Bournemouth’s is actually considerably smaller) and with little history of success at the top level.
Prenton Park, however, does not have the facilities to generate much revenue outside of matchdays. In the boom of the early 90s, the venue was rebuilt on three sides but that did not include the main stand, which remains a relic of corrugated iron and brick. Lorraine Rogers, the chairperson before Palios, suggested the stand was costing Tranmere £500,000 a year to maintain. In 2021, a League Two game with Stevenage was postponed after a part of the roof flew off during a storm.
Palios has explored other stadium options. From the Mersey, the West float slipway leads to Bidston, where a site has been discussed but diehard fans are not enthusiastic about a move three miles away which would take the club away from its roots and potentially position it next to a waste plant, and where there are few pubs and transport links are limited.
Last summer, Palios suggested the zone was ripe for redevelopment in an interview with Liverpool Business News. “I advise my children, if ever they invest in property, invest in the south bank of the river,” he said. “As sure as apples fall from trees, this place is going to get developed.”
Any relocation, however, would need assistance from Wirral Waters as well as a council that for a decade has carefully been trying to manage its budgets due to cuts from central government. At the start of December, the Liverpool Echo reported that the council will be asking the government for a £20million bailout to prevent it from having to declare bankruptcy.
While it is generally accepted the Palios era is near an end and Tranmere needs to find a way to move forward, there is a wariness and some Tranmere supporters are questioning whether they want someone who has represented Trump in a rape trial running their club.
Matt Jones, the presenter of the Trip to the Moon podcast, speaks of “excitement, curiosity and fear”. Two years ago, he tracked down Bruce Osterman, Tranmere’s previous American owner (and the first in English football), to San Francisco.
Osterman told Jones that in 1984, he was able to complete a takeover because Tranmere were “days away from shutting its doors”. Yet Osterman was humble enough to admit that he was ill-prepared for the challenges that followed, despite investing £500,000 in cash. “I didn’t know what the hell I was doing,” he admitted. “I had no experience in this area. I was a trial lawyer… I had no understanding of the history, or where we were going.”
Osterman says that if he had his time again, he “would probably have paid more attention to the team’s relationship with the community”. Over the next three and a half years, Tranmere’s financial position became bleaker and he ended up selling the club at a loss to Palios’ predecessor Peter Johnson, the son of a butcher who became a millionaire businessman in the food industry.
Johnson ended up buying Everton where he was much less popular. His story is a reminder that it is not just American owners who move around clubs, as Friedkin has. Johnson grew up a Liverpool fan, an inconvenient factoid which put him on the back foot at Goodison, where he encountered suspicious minds and hardened attitudes.
Cynicism is deeply embedded among Everton fans, who might wonder how long it will take for their club to see the benefits of being at a new stadium and under new ownership.
Yet Friedkin’s arrival potentially draws a line under much of the uncertainty. Simon Hart, a journalist and author who has written extensively about the club, speaks about the last few years being battered by “existential concerns relating to the club’s future to the extent you are largely numb, hoping just to survive. The impression that Friedkin seems reasonably sensible and hasn’t destroyed Roma is something to grasp and be grateful for.
“At the moment, the thing that needs answering is whether Everton can go into the new stadium as a Premier League club that is secure. There is a sense that anything that keeps the club alive is acceptable.”
Excitement is not the right word but relief might be. Hart thinks Goodison is irreplaceable, a venue where the terraces hang over the pitch and some of the timberwork dates back to the Victorian era. It is as much a part of the club’s identity as the Liver Buildings are to Liverpool. A departure inspires mixed emotions that swirl around the freezing reality that Everton has not won a trophy of any kind since 1995.
As the years pass and the record extends, it becomes harder to escape. Hart describes Goodison as his “special place”, but it feels like “disappointment is soaked into every brick now”. He attended the 0-0 draw with Brentford in November when the visiting team were down to 10 men and it felt as though Goodison was weighed down by negative emotion.
Perhaps their new home allows the club to embrace a fresh start and, as he puts it, “allow Evertonians to look forward rather than back.”
(Top image: Getty Images/Design: Eamonn Dalton)
Culture
Notre Dame rolls past Indiana in College Football Playoff opening game: What’s next?
By Pete Sampson, Joe Rexrode and Seth Emerson
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — No. 7 Notre Dame cruised past No. 10 Indiana 27-17 in the first game of the 12-team College Football Playoff on Friday night. The Fighting Irish advance to play No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
Two interceptions in the first three drives and a 98-yard touchdown run by Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love got the first on-campus Playoff game off to a dramatic start. But the fireworks fizzled from there, particularly for the Hoosiers, until they finally reached the end zone twice in the final two minutes to shrink the margin of defeat. Still, Indiana was held to its second-lowest scoring output of the season and was held to 278 yards of offense to Notre Dame’s 394. Indiana gained just 63 yards rushing to Notre Dame’s 193.
Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard went 22-for-32 with 201 yards and one touchdown with another 30 yards and a score on the ground. But it was the effort of Notre Dame’s defense to stop Indiana’s usually high-powered offense that set this one apart.
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The Athletic’s analysis:
Notre Dame’s defense dominates
Notre Dame opened the season asking its defense to carry it, which it did just about every week through Thanksgiving. The Irish asked their defense to do the same to open the postseason. Again, it answered the bell, holding Indiana to 17 points as the Hoosiers barely threatened the goal line short of a first-quarter drive that ended with a Xavier Watts interception.
It was a near-perfect game plan from defensive coordinator Al Golden, who turned up the pressure on Kurtis Rourke early and never let the Indiana quarterback get comfortable. Notre Dame’s defensive line had a lot to do with that, as the return of Howard Cross from an ankle sprain overwhelmed Indiana’s offensive line. Even though the Irish lost defensive tackle Rylie Mills and defensive end Bryce Young during the game due to injury, it didn’t matter much.
Indiana, the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense during the regular season at 43.3 points per game, had no chance.
The performance put to bed Notre Dame’s struggles at USC three weeks ago when the Irish were picked apart through the air until ending the game with back-to-back pick sixes. The performance was enough to wonder if Notre Dame had finally been stretched too thin, relying on underclassmen in the secondary with a pass rush losing steam.
Not exactly.
Indiana barely took shots against Notre Dame.
The Irish will be tested at a new level against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and the growing injury list will be a concern. But in the final home game of the season, Notre Dame put another performance on tape to suggest it has a national championship-level defense. — Sampson
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Sampson: Notre Dame knows who it is. It can change how others see it against Georgia
Indiana had an incredible season, but Ohio State and Notre Dame pulled off the mask
Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers don’t need to apologize for making the College Football Playoff with an 11-1 record. The CFP committee doesn’t have to apologize, either. Indiana played dominant football for most of the season, against a schedule that looked much more difficult than it ended up being. But Notre Dame’s romp in tandem with the Hoosiers’ 38-15 loss at Ohio State combine to tell the story of a team that couldn’t hang up front against supremely talented defenses. Michigan exposed that offensive line a bit in its loss at Indiana as well. Kurtis Rourke had little time to throw and missed some he needed to make on the rare occasions he was able to scan the field.
It was a historic, spectacular debut season for Cignetti. It ended with a reminder that a program with this history producing a true national title contender in one year simply isn’t realistic. — Rexrode
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Rexrode: Indiana deserved its Playoff bid even if its schedule helped it get there
What’s next? Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
Kirby Smart noticed what Notre Dame fans were yelling while the Georgia coach appeared on ESPN’s “College GameDay” on Friday afternoon: “We want Georgia! We want Georgia!”
“They gotta win this one first,” Smart replied, smiling, amid the booing.
Notre Dame won, setting up a marquee matchup that harkens to Georgia history, and Smart’s tenure.
It’s a redux of the 1981 Sugar Bowl, when Georgia won its second-ever national title. Then in 2017, it was at Notre Dame where Smart launched his program with a one-point win, on its way to an unexpected run to the national championship game. Georgia won the rematch in Athens two years later, though it was also close.
That was when Brian Kelly was the coach. Georgia is still essentially the same talent-laden, physical SEC program, just with a more modern passing offense. The question is how far Marcus Freeman has taken a Notre Dame program that has wilted in the postseason before.
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Who does Georgia want to play: Notre Dame or Indiana?
The Fighting Irish are a physical team. The Bulldogs haven’t had their usual dominance in the trenches but much of that was because of injuries, and now they’re as healthy as they’ve been all year.
Georgia’s defense is predicated on stopping the run and taking its chances against the pass. But it’s been susceptible to edge runs this year, so one has to imagine the cringe Smart felt watching Love go 98 yards down the left sideline. Love probably won’t outrun Georgia’s defensive backs like that, but he could get a lot of chunk plays on the outside. Georgia has also been susceptible to dual-threat quarterbacks, so Leonard’s feet could be a headache.
Then again, so could new Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton in his first college start. Stockton vs. Notre Dame’s solid secondary will also be interesting. Georgia does figure to have much better skill position players than Indiana, especially with tailbacks Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier.
All in all, it’s a hard game to predict. During Smart’s appearance, ESPN’s Rece Davis pointed out that Notre Dame has never beaten Georgia. That’s true, but all three games have been decided by one possession. No one should be surprised if the fourth matchup is just as close. — Emerson
GO DEEPER
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(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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