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Top 45 MLB free agents for 2024-25 with contract predictions, team fits: Will Soto get $600M+?

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Top 45 MLB free agents for 2024-25 with contract predictions, team fits: Will Soto get 0M+?

MLB free agency is almost here so it’s time for my annual ranking of the top free agents with contract predictions and the best team fits for each player. Eligible players technically become free agents the day after the World Series ends but cannot sign with a new team until five days after the final out.

This year’s free-agent class will be headlined by Juan Soto, whom many in the industry expect to sign a contract in the $550 million to $650 million range. The top of the pool could feature four front-of-the-rotation pitchers, including Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and perhaps even Roki Sasaki, if the soon-to-be 23-year-old phenom makes it to free agency. In terms of position players, this class will have a pair of prominent power hitters in first baseman Pete Alonso and right fielder Anthony Santander and a couple of impact two-way corner infielders in first baseman Christian Walker and third baseman Alex Bregman.

This list will change between now and the start of free agency. Some of these players will come off the board if they decide not to opt out of their contracts or their clubs exercise options. Some could decide to retire. In addition, more international players could join the eventual class. (For this ranking, I’ve included any player who could reach free agency this November, even if in some cases that outcome is unlikely.)

Along with my colleagues at The Athletic, I will be actively covering free agency and the trade season from start to finish, so let’s discuss the current landscape. Here is my ranking of the top 45 free agents for the 2024-25 offseason, with my thoughts on the players as well as information from my conversations with decision-makers across the game. What types of contracts could these players command? These are my initial projections.

(Note: Players’ ages are as of Oct. 24. WAR is according to Baseball Reference as of Oct. 24.) 

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1. Juan Soto, OF

Age: 25
B: L T: L HT: 6-2 WT: 225
2024 (Yankees): 7.9 WAR
Career: 36.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $31 million

Has Juan Soto found his permanent home with the Yankees? Can they keep him after a strong platform year? He certainly lived up to expectations in his first year in the Bronx, slashing .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and a league-leading 128 runs scored. He’s expected to finish third in the American League MVP voting behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. He’s met the big moments in this postseason and has logged a 1.106 OPS.

By all indications, he’s poised to become the second-highest-paid player in baseball history, behind only Shohei Ohtani. He’s a generational talent who will hit free agency at only 26 and should be able to land a 15-year deal. Most executives believe he’ll end up somewhere between $550 million and $650 million, which will probably limit his market to both New York teams and possibly the Blue Jays. Other teams such as the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals also could emerge for Soto.

Best team fits: Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Ohtani (10 years, $700M); Mike Trout (12 years, $426M); Mookie Betts (12 years, $365M); Judge (9 years, $360M)

Contract prediction: 15 years, $622 million

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP

Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Orioles): 3.4 WAR
Career: 17.2 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $15.64 million

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This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February. He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason.

Best team fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles
Salary comps: Stephen Strasburg (7 years, $245M); Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185M); Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M)

Contract prediction: 7 years, $247 million

3. Roki Sasaki, RHP

Age: 22
HT: 6-2 WT: 187

It is unclear if Roki Sasaki’s team in Japan, the Chiba Lotte Marines, will allow him to leave for MLB this offseason, but with the Marines out of the NPB playoffs, we should know soon. If he is coming, he will be the most coveted international free agent as the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all committed significant resources to scout him this month, including sending top executives to see him pitch.

How much teams would be willing to offer Sasaki could depend on his medical reports as he didn’t pitch for two months in the middle of the year because of arm troubles, which limited him to 18 games and 111 innings. (He pitched just 91 innings in 2023 due to an oblique injury and has topped the 100-inning mark only once in his career.)

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However, he dominated down the stretch this season, averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and reaching 103 mph. Since Sasaki is under 25, he would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions; if he’s posted after this season, he’d only be allowed to sign a minor-league contract, which is what Ohtani did with the Angels in 2017.

Best team fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks, Red Sox
Salary comps: None

Contract prediction: Minor-league contract

4. Gerrit Cole, RHP

Age: 34
HT: 6-4 WT: 220
2024 (Yankees): 2.0 WAR
Career: 43.3 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $36 million

Gerrit Cole will not be a free agent this offseason, but I’ve included him in this list because he has the right to opt out of his contract and could theoretically reach the open market. That won’t happen though, as he’s in line to make $36 million a year with the Yankees through 2028, which he could not match in free agency.

Cole spent 2 1/2 months on the injured list and is not fully back to his usual level of performance but seems to be getting better the more he pitches. His four-seam fastball was at 97 mph in the seventh inning of the Yankees’ clinching win over Kansas City in the Division Series, with elite spin at the top of the zone. Cole will start Game 1 of the World Series, and although I don’t expect him to dominate, he should pitch well enough to give the Yankees a chance to win.

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Prediction: Cole won’t opt out of his contract


Max Fried acknowledges the fans at Truist Park. Will he be back with the Braves? (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)

5. Max Fried, LHP

Age: 30
HT: 6-4 WT: 190
2024 (Braves): 3.5 WAR
Career: 24.1 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $15 million

Max Fried has a career record of 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He’s made two All-Star teams, won two Gold Glove awards and finished top-five in the Cy Young Award voting twice. He’s made 28 to 30 starts in three of the last four seasons but has dealt with injuries, including left forearm neuritis each of the last two years. Therefore, his medical reports will determine whether he lands a market-rate deal or has to take a lesser contract. The Braves have tried over the last several years to extend Fried to no avail. They’ll keep trying this offseason and wait to see how he fares in the market, but they definitely want him back.

Best team fits: Braves, Orioles, Mets, Red Sox
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M)

Contract prediction: 6 years, $174 million

6. Pete Alonso, 1B

Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Mets): 2.6 WAR
Career: 19.8 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $20.5 million

Pete Alonso’s value spiked after he performed this postseason in the biggest moments, including hitting three opposite-field home runs during the Mets’ magical run. He’s beloved in New York and the feeling is mutual. I think a return to the Mets is inevitable, but several contending teams would love to have his 40-homer bat in the middle of their lineups.

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Best team fits: Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Nationals
Salary comps: Matt Olson (8 years, $168M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Kris Bryant (7 years, $182M)

Contract prediction: 7 years, $204 million

7. Alex Bregman, 3B

Age: 30
B: R T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 190
2024 (Astros) 4.1 WAR
Career: 39.6 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $20 million

Alex Bregman would love to finish his career as an Astro, but will the organization do enough to keep him? Houston has a history in free agency of saying goodbye to its star players, such as Carlos Correa and George Springer, who both departed when the Astros weren’t willing to commit to the long-term contracts they could land elsewhere.

Bregman is a proven leader with elite skills in not chasing out of the strike zone. He has all the intangibles that winning organizations want. His market range is well-defined — somewhere between what the Giants gave Matt Chapman last month and Nolan Arenado’s contract with the Rockies/Cardinals. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the team will make Bregman an offer, but will it be close to how the rest of the industry views him?

Best team fits: Astros, Yankees, Nationals, Mariners, Tigers
Salary comps: Matt Chapman (6 years, $151M); Nolan Arenado (8 years, $260M); Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280M)

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Contract prediction: 7 years, $185.5 million

8. Blake Snell, LHP

Age: 31
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Giants): 2.1 WAR
Career: 23.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $32 million

Snell was looking for a long-term contract last offseason, but most executives were concerned about his track record, which includes making 30 or more starts only twice in a nine-year career and never pitching more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. However, in the two years he did make 30 starts (2018, 2023), he won a Cy Young Award both times.

This year he dealt with injuries early but performed well after returning in July; he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 2.43 FIP over 20 starts. Snell will pitch at age 32 next year and I think his lack of durability — he’s pitched more than 130 innings in a season only once since 2018 — will again prevent him from getting a long-term contract. However, after opting out of his $30 million player option, he’ll be able to sign a better deal.

Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Giants
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M); José Berríos (7 years, $131M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $105 million

9. Freddy Peralta, RHP

Age: 28
HT: 6-0 WT: 202
2024 (Brewers): 2.6 WAR
Career: 8.9 WAR
Agent: Rep 1 Baseball 2024 salary: $5.7 million

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Freddy Peralta will not make it to free agency but I’ll include him in this list until the Brewers exercise their $8 million team option for 2025. Peralta pitched to a 3.68 ERA over 32 starts this season, with 200 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings. Milwaukee also holds an $8 million team option for 2026.

Prediction: Brewers will exercise $8 million team option for 2025


Anthony Santander hit 44 homers, finishing behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani on the major-league leaderboard. (Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images)

10. Anthony Santander, RF

Age: 30
B: B T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 230
2024 (Orioles): 2.9 WAR
Career: 11.1 WAR
Agent: GSE Worldwide 2024 salary: $11.7 million

A lot of teams are looking for corner outfielders with power and there won’t be a lot of those players available via free agency or trades. This season Santander had 44 home runs, 102 RBIs and 91 runs scored, all of which were career highs. He’s hit 105 homers over the past three seasons and is still only 30.

Best team fits: Orioles, Nationals, Reds, Blue Jays, Mariners
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (6 years, $150M)

Contract prediction: 7 years, $150.5 million

11. Willy Adames, SS

Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 219
2024 (Brewers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 21.5
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $12.25 million

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I expected Willy Adames to be traded to the Dodgers after Corey Seager departed as a free agent in 2021, but it never happened because the Brewers remained a contender and never made him available. With Adames now reaching free agency, the Dodgers should be viewed as heavy favorites to land him. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman had Adames in his organization for a couple of years when he was GM of the Rays and has always been a big fan of the player. Adames is a perfect fit for the left side of the Dodgers’ infield.

Best team fits: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves
Salary comps: Dansby Swanson (7 years, $177M); Javier Báez (6 years, $140M); Trevor Story (6 years, $140M)

Contract prediction: 6 years, $150 million

12. Marcell Ozuna, DH

Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 225
2024 (Braves): 4.3 WAR
Career: 27.7 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $18 million

Marcell Ozuna was the Braves’ best offensive player this season, slashing .302/.378/.546 with 31 doubles and 39 home runs, and was the league’s second-best designated hitter behind Ohtani. The Braves hold a club option for $16 million for 2025 and they’re expected to exercise it, which will remove Ozuna from my next ranking.

Prediction: Braves will exercise $16 million club option for 2025

13. Christian Walker, 1B

Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 208
2024 (Diamondbacks): 2.6
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $10.9 million

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Christian Walker is one of the best first basemen in the sport. Despite his years of production, he’s never made an All-Star team; I thought he was the biggest All-Star snub this summer. The two-time Gold Glove Award winner is in line to win his third after leading NL first basemen in outs above average.

Despite missing more than a month with an oblique injury, he finished the season with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs in 130 games. It was the third year in a row he’s hit at least 25 bombs and posted an OPS+ over 120. Several teams have early interest in Walker, with the Astros and Mariners being the best early team fits.

Best team fits: Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Mets
Salary comps: Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $72 million

14. Cody Bellinger, CF

Age: 29
B: L T: L HT: 6-4 WT: 203
2024 (Cubs): 2.2 WAR
Career: 24.5 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $30 million

Cody Bellinger didn’t get the long-term deal he sought last offseason and again will probably have to take a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value if he opts out of his three-year deal. The reason: He’s hit 20 or more home runs only once in five years and his production varies dramatically from year to year.

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Bellinger has won an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Slugger awards, a Gold Glove Award and has been an All-Star twice in his eight-year career. However, his slash line over the past three seasons has been a roller coaster ride, which makes it difficult for teams to assess which version they would be getting in the coming years. Bellinger’s ability to play above-average defense at all three outfield positions and first base improves his market value.

Best team fits: Cubs, Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Angels, Astros, Pirates, Phillies, Nationals
Salary comps: Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162M); George Springer (5 years, $150M); Paul Goldschmidt (5 years, $130M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Kyle Schwarber (4 years, $79M)

Contract prediction: 4 years, $112 million

15. Shane Bieber, RHP

Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 200
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 17.7 WAR
Agent: Rosenhaus Sports Representation 2024 salary: $13.13 million

Shane Bieber will likely be my pick for best value signing this offseason because of his upside. The AL Cy Young Award winner in 2020, he finished fourth in the voting in 2019 and seventh in 2022. He’s a two-time All-Star and a former Gold Glove winner.

He made only two starts this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will put him out of service until at least next summer. However, if he comes back healthy, whoever signs him might have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for the second half of the season.

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Best team fits: Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Padres
Salary comps: N/A. I don’t see a good comp for Bieber in his specific situation.

Contract prediction: Low base salary with incentives for games started and innings pitched, plus option years


Sean Manaea boosted his value with a career year. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)

16. Sean Manaea, LHP

Age: 32
HT: 6-5 WT: 245
2024 (Mets): 3.0 WAR
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $14.5 million

I don’t think there’s another player who increased his free-agent value more this year than Sean Manaea, who did so thanks to significant mechanical changes that led to a crossfire-type delivery. Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 184 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings. He had a .185 batting average against and 0.938 WHIP in the second half of the season, then largely pitched well in three of his four postseason outings, including a dominant NLDS start against the Phillies in which he allowed one run and three hits in seven innings. He has a $13.5 million player option for 2025 that he will decline.

Best team fits: Mets, Orioles, Twins
Salary comps: Hyun Jin Ryu (4 years, $80M); Eduardo Rodriguez (4 years, $80M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million

17. Jack Flaherty, RHP

Age: 29
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Tigers, Dodgers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 13.2 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $14 million

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Jack Flaherty was the best starting pitcher traded at the deadline after logging a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 18 starts for the Tigers, who dealt him because he was an impending free agent and they didn’t think they were a contender. (What a run they had!)

The Tigers had a preliminary trade agreement in place with the Yankees, but New York backed out of the deal over concerns about his medical records. Flaherty was then traded to the Dodgers, who had no problem with the medical risk. He delivered for the Dodgers and was their best starter for the rest of the regular season, going 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts.

He showed his ability to miss bats this season with 194 strikeouts (in 162 innings), his highest total since 2019, when he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s only 29. If teams aren’t concerned about the medical risk associated with his back issues, he should land a three-year pact.

Best team fits: Dodgers, Mets, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Lance McCullers Jr. (5 years, $85M); Mitch Keller (5 years, $77M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Pablo López (4 years, $73.5M); Kyle Hendricks (4 years, $55.5M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million

18. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP

Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 198

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Tomoyuki Sugano has gone 136-75 with a 2.45 ERA and 1,596 strikeouts in 12 NPB seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. This year he logged a 1.67 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 24 starts. He is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, which in Japan is equivalent to the Cy Young Award. Sugano has a six-pitch mix and he pounds the strike zone with elite command and control.

Best team fits: Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets
Salary comps: N/A

Contract prediction: None at this time

19. Michael Wacha, RHP

Age: 33
HT: 6-6 WT: 215
2024 (Royals): 3.5 WAR
Career: 16.6 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $16 million

Michael Wacha has been superb and consistent over the past three years, posting ERAs between 3.22 and 3.35 with double-digit wins each season, all while pitching on short-term contracts. His downward plane and changeup (.169 batting average against) are special. He ranked in the 99th percentile in offspeed run value and in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. Wacha has a $16 million player option for 2025 that I expect he’ll decline so he can enter free agency and land a multiyear contract.

Best team fits: Royals, Pirates, Orioles, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Jameson Taillon (4 years, $68M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M); Jon Gray (4 years, $56M); Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M)

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Contract prediction: 3 years, $54 million

20. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

Age: 34
HT: 6-2 WT: 217
2024 (Rangers): 2.2 WAR
Career: 21.0 WAR
Agent: ACES 2024 salary: $16 million ($20 million player option for 2025)

Nathan Eovaldi had a 3.80 ERA over 29 starts and recorded 12 wins for the second consecutive season with the Rangers. He is expected to opt out of his contract, which was set to pay him $20 million in 2025, and instead will receive a $2 million buyout. I think he’ll get a two-year contract in free agency. Every contending team should be interested in him.

Best team fits: Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, Padres
Salary comps: Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Blake Snell (2 years, $62M); Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $42 million with a team option


Teoscar Hernández posted a 137 OPS+, his highest mark in a full season. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)

21. Teoscar Hernández, LF

Age: 32
B: R T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 215
2024 (Dodgers): 4.3 WAR
Career: 17.1 WAR
Agent: Republik Sports 2024 salary: $23.5 million

Teoscar Hernández made a smart move last offseason in signing with the Dodgers. He accepted a one-year deal with a high AAV and got to join a loaded lineup filled with future Hall of Famers. Hernández then did what he does best — hit home runs, a career-high 33 of them, to go with 99 RBIs. He’s a below-average defender in left field but a strong clubhouse presence with his energy and enthusiasm.

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Best team fit: Dodgers, Nationals, Tigers, Royals
Salary comps: George Springer (6 years, $150M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Jorge Soler (3 years, $42M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $75 million

22. Walker Buehler, RHP

Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 185
2024 (Dodgers): -1.3 WAR
Career: 12.2 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $8.025 million

The way Walker Buehler pitched for much of the regular season (1-6, 5.38 ERA), it didn’t appear he would regain his past form after returning from a second Tommy John surgery. But he made a big impression in Game 3 of the NLCS, when he dominated the Mets over four shutout innings. Buehler will probably have to sign a one-year contract with a mutual option, then show he can pitch a full season healthy and rebuild his value.

Best team fit: Dodgers
Salary comps: None

Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives

23. Tanner Scott, LHP

Age: 30
HT: 6-0 WT: 235
2024 (Marlins, Padres): 3.9 WAR
Career: 8.6 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $5.7 million

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Tanner Scott will be the best left-handed high-leverage reliever on the free-agent market. He can be deployed at any time and in any role — closer, set up, match up — to get left- or right-handed hitters out. He had a banner year, registering a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances with 22 saves. Batters hit .134 against his four-seam fastball and .231 against his wipeout slider.

Best team fits: Padres, Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Royals, Nationals, Giants
Salary comps: Raisel Iglesias (4 years, $58M); Robert Suarez (5 years, $46M)

Contract prediction: 4 years, $60 million

24. Jurickson Profar, LF

Age: 31
B: B T: R HT: 6-0 WT: 184
2024 (Padres): 3.7 WAR
Career: 8.5 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $1 million

Jurickson Profar was one of the best value signings of the 2023-24 offseason. He inked a one-year contract with the Padres for a base salary of $1 million, then had a career year, finishing second in the NL with a .380 on-base percentage. He hit .280 with 24 home runs, 29 doubles and 10 stolen bases. He also made his first All-Star team. A multiyear deal awaits.

Best team fits: Padres, Twins
Salary comps: Mitch Haniger (3 years, $43.5M); Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3 years, $42M); Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M)

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Contract prediction: 3 years, $44 million

25. Eugenio Suárez, 3B

Age: 33
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 213
2024 (Diamondbacks) 3.1 WAR
Career: 23.6 WAR
Agent: Octagon 2024 salary: $11.285 million

The Diamondbacks acquired Eugenio Suárez from Seattle last offseason in hopes of improving their power. Suárez certainly delivered with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. He finished in the 96th percentile in sweet spot percentage and played solid defense at the hot corner, finishing in the 82nd percentile in range (outs above average). The Diamondbacks hold a $15 million option for 2025 ($2 million buyout) that they’ll likely pick up.

Best team fits: Diamondbacks, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Matt Chapman (6 years, $151M); Chris Taylor (4 years, $60M); Max Muncy (2 years, $24M)

Contract prediction: Diamondbacks exercise $15 million team option for 2025

26. Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Age: 31
HT: 6-6 WT: 228
War: -1.4
Career: 11.2 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $25 million

Jordan Montgomery ended up being the worst free-agent signing of last year’s class. He turned down a four-year offer from the Red Sox, instead agreeing to a one-year, $25 million deal with the Diamondbacks that included a $22.5 million player option for 2025. He had a disastrous year.

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He went 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA and averaged just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, the worst rate of his eight-year career. Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick publicly said he hopes Montgomery doesn’t exercise his player option, but the lefty has little choice as no team would offer him a similar contract in free agency this offseason.

Best team fits: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Nationals
Salary comps: None

Prediction: Montgomery exercises 22.5 million player option and then the Diamondbacks try to trade him

27. Ha-Seong Kim, SS

Age: 28
B: R T: R HT: 5-9 WT: 168
2024 (Padres): 2.6 WAR
Career: 15.3 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $8 million

Ha-Seong Kim underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in September to repair a “small tear” in the labrum of his right (throwing) shoulder. He sustained the injury Aug. 18 while diving back to first base on a pick-off play. This season manager Mike Shildt moved Kim from second base, where he won a Gold Glove Award last year, to shortstop, which was a significant defensive upgrade for the Padres. However, Kim hit just .233 with 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases before going on the injured list. He might have to sign a “pillow contract” to show he’s recovered from the injury, then produce like he did in 2023, when he hit 17 home runs and stole 38 bases.

Best team fits: Padres, Brewers, Dodgers, Pirates
Salary comps: J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M); Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); Orlando Arcia (3 years, $7.3M)

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Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives and award bonuses

28. Gleyber Torres, 2B

Age: 27
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 205
2024 (Yankees): 1.8 WAR
Career: 16.1 WAR
Agent: Octagon 2024 salary: $14.2 million

Gleyber Torres has wanted to sign a long-term contract with the Yankees but there have never been serious negotiations to keep him in the Bronx for years to come. He is a below-average defender at second base with limited range. He hit .257 with 15 home runs and a 101 OPS+ on the season but batted over .300 when he was moved to the leadoff spot in September and has performed in October, slashing .297/.400/.432 in the playoffs.

Best team fits: Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Marlins
Salary comps: Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Nico Hoerner (3 years, $35M); J.P. Crawford (5 years, $51M)

Contract prediction: 4 years, $44 million


Tyler O’Neill is coming off his best season since 2021. (Bob DeChiara / Imagn Images)

29. Tyler O’Neill, OF

Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 200
2024 (Red Sox): 2.7 WAR
Career: 12.6
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $5.85 million

Tyler O’Neill is like Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger — when he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, he delivers. This year he slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs in 113 games. However, it was only the second somewhat healthy successful season of his seven-year career — his last one was in 2021 when he hit 34 home runs with the Cardinals, finished eighth in NL MVP voting and won his second Gold Glove Award.

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O’Neill had multiple stints on the injured list this year and has played more than 100 games only twice. Despite coming off a productive season, that lack of availability will force him to sign another short-term contract.

Best team fit: Red Sox
Salary comps: Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Andrew Benintendi (5 years, $75M); Ian Happ (3 years, $61M); Jorge Soler (3 years, 42M); Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $32 million

30. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP

Age: 33
HT: 6-0 WT: 210
2024 (Blue Jays, Astros): 1.4 WAR
Career: 4.1
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $10 million

Yusei Kikuchi was 4-9 with a 4.75 ERA over 22 starts with the Blue Jays, who dealt him to Houston at the trade deadline. The Astros quickly changed his pitch sequencing and usage and the results were astounding — he went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 3.07 FIP over 10 starts (60 innings). Kikuchi would be smart to re-sign with the Astros and the feeling should be mutual based on his results and the prospect package they traded to land him.

Best team fits: Astros, Orioles, Tigers, Twins
Salary comps: Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63.3 million; Miles Mikolas (3 years $55.75M); Seth Lugo (3 years; $45M); Tyler Anderson (3 years; $39M); Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $34M)

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Contract prediction: 3 years, $42 million

31. Brandon Lowe, 2B

Age: 30
B: L T: R HT: 5-10 WT: 185
2024 (Rays): 2.4 WAR
Career: 16.0 WAR
Agent: The Bledsoe Agency 2024 salary: $8.75 million

Brandon Lowe is another player who just can’t stay off the injured list; he’s played more than 110 games just once in his seven-year career and has averaged 108 games over the last two years. However, his power has been consistent during that span as he hit 21 homers in both years.

He’s only 30, and if he can stay healthy, his power plays, as it did in 2021 when he hit 39 home runs. He finished in the top 10 in AL MVP voting in 2020 and 2021 so there’s no denying his potential.

Tampa Bay holds a $10.5 million team option for 2025 ($1 million buyout) and an $11.5 million option ($500,000 buyout) for 2026. The Rays could certainly pick up the option, but if they don’t, Lowe could be a smart high-risk, high-reward type signing this winter.

Best team fits: Rays, Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Blue Jays
Salary comps: Jeff McNeil (4 years, $50M); Brandon Drury (2 years, $17M); Jorge Polanco (5 years, $25.75M)

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Contract prediction: 2 years, $24 million

32. Nick Martinez, RHP

Age: 34
HT: 6-1 WT: 201
2024 (Reds) War: 4.0 WAR
Career: 8.7 WAR
Agent: RMG Baseball 2024 salary: $14 million

Nick Martinez continues to improve and should land a three-year contract as a free agent this winter. He’s coming off a career-best year after going 10-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 16 starts and 26 relief appearances. Martinez hopes to become a full-time starter with his next team and he deserves that opportunity. He has posted an ERA below 3.50 in each of the past three seasons.

Best team fits: Reds, Padres, Tigers, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox
Salary comps: Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M); Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $40 million

33. Charlie Morton, RHP

Age: 40
HT: 6-5 WT: 214
2024 (Braves): 1.1 WAR
Career: 17.3 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $20 million

Charlie Morton is Mr. Consistency. In 2024 he reached the 30-starts mark for the sixth straight season. He posted a 4.19 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s weighed retirement in recent offseasons, will turn 41 in November and despite another solid season, the consensus around the Braves is that he will call it a career. But if he decides to return for his 18th major-league season, a one-year contract with Atlanta similar to his recent deals could work for both sides.

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Best team fit: Braves
Salary comps: Frankie Montas, (1 year, $16M)

Contract prediction: 1 year, $20 million

34. Joc Pederson, OF/DH

Age: 32
B: L T: L HT: 6-1 WT: 220
2024 (Diamondbacks): 2.9 WAR
Career: 15.1 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $12.5 million

Joc Pederson embraces his platoon role, excelling against right-handed pitching with an impressive .275/.392/.531 slash line and 22 homers in 407 plate appearances this season with the Diamondbacks. He has a $14 million mutual option for 2025 with a $3 million buyout, and I think it makes sense for him to take the buyout and try to sign a two-year deal on the open market.

Best team fit: Diamondbacks, Reds, Rockies
Salary comps: Rhys Hoskins (2 years, $34M); Mitch Garver (2 years, $24M); Justin Turner (1 year, $13M); J.D. Martinez (1 year, $12M); Charlie Blackmon (1 year, $13M

Contract prediction: 2 years, $26 million


Carlos Estévez (Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)

35. Carlos Estévez, RHP

Age: 31
HT: 6-6 WT: 275
2024 (Angels, Phillies): 2.1 WAR
Career: 4.8 WAR
Agent: Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment 2024 salary: $6.75 million

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Carlos Estévez had a strong free-agent walk year, posting a 2.38 ERA with the Angels before being traded at the deadline to Philadelphia, where he put up a 2.57 ERA over 20 games. He finished the season with 26 saves and 0.909 WHIP, but also averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, the lowest rate of his career.

Estévez has 82 career saves and will generate plenty of interest from teams looking for high-leverage relievers. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said it’s unlikely the club will bring back both Estévez and Jeff Hoffman, who is ranked 43rd on this list.

Best team fits: Phillies, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Pirates
Salary comps: Kendall Graveman (3 years, $24M); José Alvarado (3 years, $22M); Joe Jiménez (3 years, $26M); Ryan Pressly (2 years, $30M); Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $33 million

36. Luis Severino, RHP

Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 218
2024 (Mets): 1.6 WAR
Career: 13.4 WAR
Agent: Rep 1 Baseball 2024 salary: $13 million

Luis Severino had a strong comeback season, making more than 30 starts for the first time since 2018. He went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA over 31 starts and struck out 161 in 182 innings. The two-time All-Star also was solid in the postseason (3.24 ERA in 16 2/3 innings), which can only increase interest in free agency.

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Best team fits: Mets, Tigers, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox
Salary comps: Chris Bassitt (3 years, $63M); Miles Mikolas (3 years, $55.75M); Seth Lugo (3 years, $45M); Zach Eflin (3 years, $40M); Lucas Gioloto (2 years, $38.5M); Marcus Stroman (2 years, $37M); Nathan Eovaldi (2 years, $34M); Reynaldo López, (3 years, $30M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $32 million

37. Jose Quintana, LHP

Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 220
2024 (Mets): 2.5 WAR
Career: 30.5
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $13 million

Jose Quintana was brilliant in his first two starts of this postseason, adding, subtracting and hitting his spots; he allowed no earned runs in 11 combined innings against the Brewers and Phillies.

The soft-tossing lefty pitched to a 3.75 ERA over 31 starts in the regular season, finishing in the 83rd percentile in overall pitching run value and in the 89th percentile in fastball run value. He has good late movement downward that leads to groundballs, ranking in the 79th percentile in ground-ball rate. Over his last 76 starts across three seasons, he has a combined ERA of under 3.50.

Best team fits: Mets, Pirates, Tigers, Twins
Salary comps: Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M); Tyler Mahle (2 years, $22M); Sean Manaea (2 years, $28M); Michael Wacha (2 years, $32M)

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Contract prediction: 2 years, $28 million

38. Blake Treinen, RHP

Age: 36
HT: 6-0 WT: 224
2024 (Dodgers): 1.4 WAR
Career: 12.4 WAR
Agent: Apex Baseball 2024 salary: $1 million ($4.5M AAV for two-year, $9M deal)

After missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 because of a torn capsule in his right shoulder that eventually required surgery, Blake Treinen miraculously returned this season as the dominant high-leverage reliever he was in 2021. His sinker is back to the mid-90s with serious drop, and his sweeper is a wipeout pitch that batters hit just .120 against. He posted a 1.93 ERA in 50 appearances.

Best team fits: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs
Salary comps: Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta, (2 years, $16.5M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $17 million

39. Alex Verdugo, LF

Age: 28
B: L T: L HT: 6-0 WT: 210
2024 (Yankees): 0.7 WAR
Career: 11.8
Agent: MVP Sports Group 2024 salary: $8.7 million

Alex Verdugo is well-liked and respected by his teammates, brings high energy to the clubhouse, plays with an edge and is a solid defender in left field. Offensively, he had a down season, slashing just .233/.291/.356. His power is pretty consistent as he has provided between 11 and 13 home runs in the last five full seasons. He plays every day, never complains and is the definition of an average major-league player.

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Best team fits: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Mariners
Salary comps: Michael Conforto (2 years, $36M); Mark Canha (2 years, $26.5M); Manuel Margot (2 years, $19M); Hunter Renfroe (2 years, $13M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $26 million

40. Jose Iglesias, 2B

Age: 34
B: R T: R HT: 5-11 WT: 195
2024 (Mets): 3.1 WAR
Career: 14.8 WAR
Agent: MVP Sports 2024 salary: $983,871

I’ll admit it: I love Jose Iglesias’ song “OMG.” And all I can say is OMG when it comes to his season, which put him in the conversation for NL Comeback Player of the Year, though the award will probably go to Chris Sale.

After not playing in the majors in 2023, Iglesias signed a minor-league contract with the Mets but was their starting second baseman by the end of year, playing in more than half of their games and slashing an amazing .337/.381/.448 (137 OPS+) with 16 doubles. He impressed with his approach at the plate — going the other way and grinding throughout at-bats — and his elite defense in the middle of the infield. Iglesias would be a good pickup for several teams, but a reunion with the Mets just makes too much sense for all parties.

Best team fit: Mets
Salary comps: Brandon Drury (2 years, $17M); Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2 years, $15M); Miguel Rojas (2 years, $11M)

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Contract prediction: 2 years, $12 million


Paul Goldschmidt (Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)

41. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

Age: 37
B: R T: R HT: 6-3 WT: 224
2024 (Cardinals): 1.3 WAR
Career: 62.8 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $26 million

Nothing in baseball makes me sadder than to watch superstar players significantly decline. Time is undefeated, but they want to keep playing because they can still contribute.

In his prime, Paul Goldschmidt was the best first baseman in the sport. Just two years ago he was the NL MVP, leading the league with a .981 OPS. The seven-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner and five-time Silver Slugger is obviously no longer at the level. His on-base percentage has plummeted over the past three years, from .404 to .363 to .302.

He still played more than 150 games this season, which he’s done in nine consecutive full seasons, but perhaps it’s time to reduce that number and try to improve production with more rest and more time as a designated hitter. The Cardinals are not expected to re-sign Goldschmidt, and for the first time in his career, he needs to brace himself for a significant pay cut and a one-year deal.

Best team fits: Yankees, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Brewers
Salary comps: Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M); Josh Bell (2 years, $33M)

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Contract prediction: 1 year, $15 million

42. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/DH

Age: 31
B: R T: R HT: 6-4 WT: 240
2024 (Brewers): -0.2 WAR
Career: 11.0 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $16 million

Rhys Hoskins held his own in his first year back from ACL surgery, providing much-needed power in the middle of the Brewers’ lineup. He slashed .214/.303/.419 with a career-low .722 OPS but did hit 26 homers and drive in 82 runs. I expect him to be a lot better next season, with the benefit of an extra year of recovery for his left knee.

Hoskins signed a two-year, $34 million deal with Milwaukee last winter and can opt out after this season. He’ll need to sign another short-term contract to try to rebuild his value.

Best team fits: Brewers, Mariners, Twins
Salary comps: Anthony Rizzo (2 years, $40M); Josh Bell (2 years, $33M); Mitch Garver (2 years, $24M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $34 million

43. Jeff Hoffman, RHP

Age: 31
HT: 6-5 WT: 235
2024 (Phillies): 2.0 WAR
Career: 3.5 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $2.2 million

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Jeff Hoffman had the best year of his career, making the All-Star team and tallying a 2.17 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in 68 games. He struck out 89 in 66 1/3 innings (12.1 strikeouts per nine). However, he fared poorly in this postseason, allowing six runs in 1 1/3 innings over three games. The Phillies are unlikely to bring back both Hoffman and Carlos Estévez.

Best team fits: Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Giants
Salary comps: Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M); Joe Jiménez (3 years, $26M); Kendall Graveman (3 years, $24M); Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta (2 years, $16.5M); Matt Strahm (2 years, $15M); Chris Martin (2 years, $13.5M)

Contract prediction: 3 years, $27 million

44. Matthew Boyd, LHP

Age: 33
HT: 6-3 WT: 230
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 9.9 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $10 million

Matthew Boyd really increased his value in the postseason as he logged a 0.77 ERA over three starts (11 2/3 innings). With a deceptive delivery and an arsenal that includes a fastball, changeup and slider, Boyd commands the strike zone well, adding and subtracting with unique shapes and sizes. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023 but now looks healthy with a good mindset.

Best team fits: Guardians, Tigers, Orioles, Padres, Braves, Red Sox
Salary comps: Lance Lynn (1 year, $11M); Kyle Gibson (1 year, $13M)

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Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million

45. Clay Holmes, RHP

Age: 31
HT: 6-5 WT: 245
2024 (Yankees): 0.7 WAR
Career: 4.2 WAR
Agent: Wasserman 2024 salary: $6 million

Clay Holmes appeared in more than 60 games for the third consecutive season, posting 30 saves before losing the closer job in August to Luke Weaver. However, he rebounded near the end of the season and performed well in high-leverage spots in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. He allowed only one run in his final eight appearances of the regular season and finished with a 3.14 ERA.

Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Royals, Phillies
Salary comps: Ryan Pressly (2 years, $30M); Taylor Rogers (3 years, $33M); Wandy Peralta (2 years, $16.5M)

Contract prediction: 2 years, $18.5 million

(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Corbin Burnes: G Fiume / Getty Images; Juan Soto: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos / Getty Images; Pete Alonso: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos / Getty Images)

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Culture

In a World Series built on stars, Shohei Ohtani’s absence would be diminishing

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In a World Series built on stars, Shohei Ohtani’s absence would be diminishing

LOS ANGELES — It’s too soon to panic, too soon to form any opinion, really. If the initial diagnosis the Los Angeles Dodgers offered on Shohei Ohtani proves correct, he could very well be in the lineup Monday night for Game 3 of the World Series at Yankee Stadium.

Still, the injury Ohtani suffered to his left shoulder Saturday night cast a pall over Dodger Stadium, quieting the raucous crowd and creating an uneasiness rarely experienced by a team leading the Series two games to none.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Ohtani has a subluxation, a condition that occurs when the ball at the top of the upper arm bone comes out of the socket only partially, as opposed to completely, which happens during a dislocation.

If that’s all this is, it might not be a big deal, particularly short-term. Roberts said Ohtani’s strength was great, his range of motion good. But he cautioned that the Dodgers will not know more until Ohtani undergoes an MRI. Savvy fans understand that no diagnosis matters until the doctors check the scans. And given the Dodgers’ history with injuries, no one should assume Ohtani will be leading off Monday night at Yankee Stadium just yet.

The absence of Ohtani for even one game would diminish a series built on stars, from the likely MVPs, Ohtani and Aaron Judge, to the superstar right fielders, Mookie Betts and Juan Soto, to another likely Hall of Famer, Freddie Freeman, and a potential one, Giancarlo Stanton. The Series also features the two highest-paid pitchers in total value, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gerrit Cole. Yamamoto, making his World Series debut Saturday night, allowed only one hit in 6 1/3 innings, a homer by Soto.

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Ohtani, though, is at the center of it all. He suffered his injury Saturday night sliding into second base on an attempted steal in the seventh inning, with the Dodgers leading, 4-1. He was in obvious pain, rolling on the dirt, then slowly getting to his feet before an athletic trainer helped him walk off the field, supporting his left arm.

For a recent comparison, consider the San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr., who reportedly sustained at least four subluxations in 2021. Tatis initially did not undergo surgery, believing his shoulder to be stable. But he reversed course in September 2022 while serving an 80-game suspension for using a banned performance-enhancing substance. Doctors repaired the labrum in his left shoulder. Tatis recovered by the time he was reinstated in April 2023. And that season, he appeared in 141 games.

Might Ohtani eventually meet the same fate? Perhaps, if he endures repeated subluxations. Treatment for shoulder instability includes both non-operative and surgical options, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine. Ohtani, of course, is still recovering from major surgery on his right elbow, with the expectation he will pitch again in 2025. But even after stealing 59 bases this season as a full-time designated hitter, he almost certainly will limit his attempts once he returns to the mound, reducing the wear and tear on his body.

If Ohtani misses time during the Series, the Dodgers can adjust by moving Betts to the leadoff spot and making Freeman their DH. Max Muncy could move from third base to first and Kiké Hernández could play third. Roberts could round out his infield with some combination of Gavin Lux, Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas, with Andy Pages playing center on days Edman replaces Rojas at short.

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Not a bad collection of players, even though Freeman is playing on a severely sprained right ankle and Rojas will require sports hernia surgery during the offseason. Ohtani was only 1-for-8 in the first two games of the Series, his one hit a ringing double off Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle in Game 1. But obviously, he’s an essential part of the Dodgers’ offense.

After striking out 10 times in 22 plate appearances in the Division Series, Ohtani broke out in the National League Championship Series, batting .364 with a 1.185 OPS. He has been an absolute terror in the postseason with runners in scoring position, going 15-for-22 in those situations.

With or without Ohtani, the Dodgers are in excellent position. The only way they will lose the Series is if they drop four of the next five games — not out of the question with the Series shifting to New York for Games 3, 4 and 5 (if necessary), but not all that likely, either. The Yankees have their own problems, most notably the performance of likely MVP Aaron Judge, who is batting .150 in the postseason with a .605 OPS and 19 strikeouts in 50 plate appearances.

The Dodgers being the Dodgers, they would use any absence by Ohtani as a rallying point. Betts was out nearly two months this season with a fractured left hand. Freeman was away for 10 days while his son Max, 3, dealt with Guillain-Barré syndrome, and later missed time with a broken finger and his ankle problem. And lest we forget, the Dodgers also placed 12 starting pitchers on the injured list.

No one should portray this team as an underdog, not when its estimated $325 million payroll was second only to the New York Mets. The Dodgers leveraged their financial might to build extraordinary depth. So even while somewhat depleted, their roster is strong enough for the club to be within two wins of its first World Series title since 2020, and its first in a full season since 1988.

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The continuing presence of Ohtani would further enhance the Dodgers’ chances, and his return for Game 3 seemed quite possible, at least the way Roberts was talking. By now, we’ve all learned that underestimating Ohtani is foolish. Seriously, would anyone be surprised if he returned to hit the Series-clinching homer, and then defied the Dodgers’ insistence that he will not pitch again this season by earning the Series-clinching save?

All right, that’s a bit much to ask. Let’s just hope Ohtani plays again in the Series. Any time he misses will diminish baseball’s biggest spectacle in years. And as his past injuries have shown, every day he is out is a lesser day for the sport.

(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani exiting the field in Game 2: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

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Freddie Freeman wallops his way into World Series history with walk-off slam that’ll float forever

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Freddie Freeman wallops his way into World Series history with walk-off slam that’ll float forever

LOS ANGELES — Carlton Fisk … Kirby Puckett … Derek Jeter … David Freese.

As he smoothed the dirt in the batter’s box in the 10th inning Friday night, Freddie Freeman never could have envisioned he’d be spending the rest of his life hanging out with those October legends.

But then walk-off magic happened.

Before the next wave of Freeman’s bat, no living human could lean back in an easy chair and describe to you what a walk-off, lead-flipping, extra-inning World Series grand slam looked like. But we can now. It looks exactly like this.

History is an amazing thing to make — and a breathtaking thing to witness. A stadium rattles until it awakens every Richter Scale in Southern California. A walk-off hero jumps on home plate and disappears into a sea of hugs and laughs and tears of joy.

A scoreboard tries to tell this tale — Dodgers 6, Yankees 3 — but there is so much emotion and so much history that can’t possibly be captured by the final score of Friday’s Game 1 of the 2024 World Series.

So that’s where this column comes in handy. There are certain nights in October that seem to exist so those of us at Weird and Wild World HQ can help you make sense of them. This was one of those nights.

“Freddie just hit a ball that’s going to be in the history reels forever,” Dodgers reliever Michael Kopech told us afterward. “So it’s a special moment — for him and for us.”

When a man hits a walk-off home run in extra innings — in the World Freaking Series — he can’t imagine in that moment that the baseball is never going to come down. But he could ask the guys in the first sentence of this column …

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Carlton Fisk … Kirby Puckett … Derek Jeter … David Freese.

They’re in that hallowed Extra-inning World Series Walk-off Club. So Freddie can ask them the next time he sees him. Or even better …

He could walk across his clubhouse and ask Max Muncy.

Six years ago, it was Muncy who stepped to the plate at 12:30 in the morning — California time — and pounded an 18th-inning walk-off home run of his own, to finish off the longest World Series game ever played: Game 3 of the 2018 Series.

It turned out to be the only game the Dodgers won against the Red Sox in that World Series. But if you think that means that home run was forgotten, Muncy is here to set you straight.

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“Yeah, Freddie is gonna hear about this one for a long time,” Muncy said Friday night. “Freddie has hit some big home runs, especially in the postseason. But he’s gonna hear about this one.”

So why is that? What is it about home runs like this that cause them to reverberate through history and stick in our memory banks? We can help explain that!

Extra special


Freddie Freeman watches his slam sail into the seats. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)

This was the 693rd game in World Series history. So think about how wild (and weird) it is that no hitter, in any of those other 692 games, had written a script to match Freddie Freeman’s script.

How many walk-off slams had ever been hit, in any other World Series game? Yep, that would be none.

In fact, only one walk-off slam had ever ended a game in any other postseason round. That was hit by Nelson Cruz, in Game 2 of the 2011 ALDS. So what were the odds that Cruz would be in the park for this one, as a member of the Spanish-language Univision broadcast team? Baseball!

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But moving right along, here comes a distinction even wilder than that. Wouldn’t you think that sometime, in the 119 previous World Series, somebody would have dug into a batter’s box somewhere, with his team trailing, and hit an extra-inning home run that turned a loss into a win?

You would think that, all right. But you would think wrong — because the complete list of men to do that consists of …

Freddie Freeman!

Or wouldn’t you think that somebody would have hit a home run that at least tied a World Series game in extra innings? Nope. No one has ever hit one of those, either.

So what we saw Freeman do Friday, in the 10th inning at Dodger Stadium, was produce an all-time October moment. And who can ever get enough of them!

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“When you get told you do something like that, in this game that’s been around a very long time — I love the history of this game,” Freeman said. “To be a part of it, it’s special.”

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Rosenthal: For Freddie Freeman, his family and Dodgers fans, a grand moment on the biggest stage

She is … gone

As the 10th inning began Friday night, one of my fellow baseball scribes turned to me and asked: What are the chances that Kirk Gibson limps out of the dugout to hit in this inning?

We laughed at the thought. But in retrospect …

In the history of the World Series, just two men have ever stood in a batter’s box with their team one out from defeat … and then hit a walk-off home run that changed everything:

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Kirk Gibson, Game 1, 1988
Freddie Freeman, Game 1, 2024

(Hat tip: Paul Casella, MLB.com)

Geez. Holy Chavez Ravine. Gibson, of course, flipped that 1988 script in the ninth inning, not the 10th. Nevertheless, is that goosebumpy enough for you — even if Freeman hadn’t been limping around all week, much like Gibson did back in the day?

But when a few of us tried to recast The Kirk Gibson Story afterward, with Freeman as the new lead in this production, Freeman’s teammates were not all in on that. Especially not after Freeman had tripled in his first at-bat of the Series. After all, Gibson could barely make it to third base after his home run back in ’88. So are we sure this was the same thing?

C’mon, Muncy said, “Freddie’s been hobbling too fast. He’s moving good. He had a triple tonight. So I don’t know if you can compare that. From everything I heard, Gibson had half a leg.”

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In a year that has been so improbable …


Freeman’s euphoric teammates wait to greet him at the plate after he ended Game 1. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)

When Freeman wriggled into the box with two outs in the 10th, the Dodgers’ chances of winning this game were only 26.7 percent, according to Baseball Reference. That changed swiftly, obviously. One moonshot into the right-field pavilion later, those chances were more like 100 percent.

So if you’re adding along at home, you know what that means: Freeman’s homer had just jumped their Win Probability by a staggering 73.3 percent, with one swing of the bat. Does that seem good? We’ll do you a favor, by stepping outside those decimal points to tell you just how good.

This was officially one of the biggest, most game-changing swings in the history of the World Series!

So there. Does that help make sense of it? And how cool is it that we can measure that with Baseball Reference’s handy dandy Pivotal Play Finder, which can rank every World Series hit by its Win Probability Added. So we did that.

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Most pivotal extra-inning homers 

HITTER GAME/YEAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

Freddie Freeman 

Game 1, 2024  

73.3%

Derek Jeter

Game 4, 2001

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46.1%

Most pivotal extra-inning hits 

HITTER GAME/YEAR  WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

Freddie Freeman

Game 1, 2024

73.3%

Tris Speaker*

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Game 8, 1912 

50.5%

 (*game-tying single in 10th)

Most pivotal bases-loaded hits 

HITTER GAME/YEAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

Freddie Freeman 

Game 1, 2024  

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73.3%

Terry Pendleton*

Game 2, 1985 

68.9%

(*lead-flipping double with two outs in ninth)

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And finally, here it comes, the leaderboard you’ve been waiting for but might not have known you were. It’s the …

Most pivotal World Series walk-off hits ever 

HITTER GAME/YEAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

Kirk Gibson 

Game 1, 1988

87%

Freddie Freeman

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Game 1, 2024

73.3%

Joe Carter  

Game 6, 1993

65.6%

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(Source: Baseball Reference)

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How Freddie Freeman delivered an iconic swing on a bad ankle: ‘You dream about those moments’

Their intentions were good


After the intentional walk, Freeman dropped the mic. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)

But wait. There’s more. This grand slam would not have been possible if the Yankees hadn’t filled up the bases by intentionally walking Mookie Betts to pitch to Freeman. So how rare is a postseason grand slam following an intentional walk?

Whoa, we hadn’t had one of those since … 12 days ago, when these same Dodgers intentionally walked Francisco Lindor to fill the bases for Mark Vientos … in this same stadium. The baseball gods work in mysterious ways, don’t they?

But if we just confine this discussion to intentional walks that set up a slam in the World Series, we have only four of those in history:

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YEAR  GAME INT BB HIT SLAM INNING

1951

WS Game 5 

Johnny Mize   

Gil McDougald

3rd

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1956

WS Game 7

Yogi Berra

Bill Skowron 

7th

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1992

WS Gm 6

David Justice

Lonnie Smith

5th

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2024

WS Gm 1

Mookie Betts

Freddie Freeman 

10th

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(Source: STATS Perform)

But you’ll notice this was the first extra-inning intentional walk to set up a grand slam in World Series history — and only the second in postseason history. The other was issued by … Dave Roberts, who intentionally walked a guy named Juan Soto to get to Howie Kendrick in the 10th inning of Game 5 of the 2019 NLDS. That didn’t go quite as well for the Dodgers manager as this!

No wonder Roberts would later describe this game as maybe “the greatest baseball moment I’ve ever witnessed.”

But he was not alone. We’ve measured the cool factor of this home run with lots of numbers. Yet maybe the truest measure was the euphoria this epic blast infused in Freeman’s teammates. An hour later, that feeling hadn’t subsided — not even a little.

“I can’t imagine how Freddie is feeling right now,” said Michael Kopech, “because I feel like I’m floating.”

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There’s another baseball game to play Saturday. So the Dodgers will show up and play all nine innings of it (assuming that’s enough). But we should let them in on a secret. If they go on to win this thing, when they all close their eyes — in five years, 10 years, 20 years — and think back on this World Series, they’ll still be floating …

Just like Freeman’s walk-off slam for the ages.

Party of Three


Freeman celebrates after tripling in the first inning. (Jason Parkhurst / Imagn Images)

OK, hang with us for just another minute. There are three more things you need to know about this game!

EMPTY NESTOR — Somebody has to give up these momentous home runs. In this case, that somebody was Nestor Cortes. So what’s his claim to fame? As Eric Orns, one of our favorite readers/baseball stat gurus, reports, Cortes became the first pitcher in postseason history — at least in the pitch-count era (1988-present) — to give up two runs on two pitches.

First pitch — spectacular catch by Alex Verdugo on Shohei Ohtani’s foul looper down the left-field line.

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Next pitch (after an intentional walk that now requires zero pitches) walk-off slam.

Hey, at least the Dodgers didn’t run up his pitch count.

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Nestor Cortes wanted the ball. And all that came with it

GRAND SLAM FEVER — Does it feel like there’s a grand slam every week in this postseason? It should — because this was the fifth of the postseason. And we’re not through playing yet. So as Orns reminds us, it would take only one more slam to break the record for most in a single postseason.

The two years with five of them: 2021 and 1998. Stay tuned!

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TRIPLE THREAT — Finally, have we mentioned that Freeman had a triple in his first at-bat of this game and a walk-off extra-inning homer in his last at-bat? We had a hunch he was the first player in history to do that in a World Series. Boy, were we wrong. But it was worth checking … because what a list of guys who have hit a triple and an extra-inning walk-off in the same World Series game.

Freddie Freeman 

Game 1, 2024

David Freese

Game 6, 2011

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Derek Jeter

Game 4, 2001

Kirby Puckett  

Game 6, 1991

(Source: Baseball Reference / Stathead)

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Just looking at that list, it reminded us that we remember those games as The David Freese Game … The Derek Jeter “Mr. November” Game … and The Kirby Puckett “We’ll See You Tomorrow Night” Game. So little does Freeman know it, but what we saw Friday will go down in the annals as (what else) The Freddie Freeman Game. Which tells you all you need to know about a classic October evening of …

Baseball!

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Freeman’s grand statement lifts Dodgers over Yankees in Game 1: Takeaways

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Yankees’ Boone explains ill-fated decision to use Cortes against Dodger lefties

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Juan Soto owns defensive shortcomings in Game 1, as sloppy play stifles Yankees

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(Top photo: Keith Birmingham / MediaNews Group / Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

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Week 8 NFL roundtable: Cowboys-49ers, NFC North prowess, Bucs injuries and Browns’ woes

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Week 8 NFL roundtable: Cowboys-49ers, NFC North prowess, Bucs injuries and Browns’ woes

A sudden shift could take place for more than a few NFL teams in Week 8.

The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in the second of two NFC South showdowns. The Philadelphia Eagles–Cincinnati Bengals loser might feel like any good fortune they’ve built up over the last few weeks will vanish. The AFC South could get tighter when the Houston Texans host the Indianapolis Colts. Two struggling NFC powers in the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers meet on Sunday night.

What Week 8 storylines interest our trio of NFL writers in Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe? Read more for a Sunday primer.


The Vikings (now 5-2) fell to the Rams on Thursday night. The Bears (at Commanders), Lions (vs. Titans) and Packers (at Jaguars) are all in action Sunday. Who is your pick to win the NFC North right now? Do you envision all four teams making the playoffs?

Sando: Detroit is a clear favorite with a victory at Minnesota already, the best roster and the most “time on task” with this group of coaches/players. I do not think all four teams from the division will reach the playoffs, but it could trend that way in the short term based on the Bears’ next three games against Washington (without Jayden Daniels), Arizona and New England. NFC North teams will beat up on each other down the stretch.

Keefer: Give me the Lions in the NFC North. The job Dan Campbell continues to do ranks right up there with the best in the league — so far, there has been no hangover from last season’s crushing conference title game loss. Detroit’s winning exactly how he envisioned: with two of the best fronts in the league. And Jared Goff is playing like an MVP. This team is going to be a tough, tough out in the NFC playoffs.

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Howe: Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions are still playing like the best team in the NFC. They’re a force on both sides of the ball, especially if Goff remains in the MVP conversation. As for the playoffs, all four teams are good enough to make it, and I would say it’s more than likely all four would finish the season in the NFC’s top seven of our power rankings. But they’re going to beat up on each other while an East or South team could use a more advantageous slate to sneak into the final wild-card spot.


The NFC North has a case for the league’s toughest division in 2024. The Minnesota Vikings fell to 5-2 on Thursday, while Jared Goff (16) and the Detroit Lions will host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. (Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)

A rib injury could rob us of Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels, but Bears-Commanders is a big game nonetheless. What have you liked most about Williams and Daniels? What would you like to see that each rookie QB hasn’t shown or proved yet?

Sando: I like the way both quarterbacks have started from Week 1 without the game seeming too fast for them and without the job (franchise quarterback) seeming too big for them. They both seem equipped to handle the job on and off the field, based on what we’ve seen. Daniels needs to prove he can stay on the field a full season. That is also part of the job of a franchise quarterback. His durability was a concern entering the season. He’s already managing an injury that is threatening to sideline him. For Williams, I’d like to see him fare well against good teams. He hasn’t had many chances to do that yet. The Houston game was a struggle.

Keefer: I spent time with Daniels last week in Washington and — as the story lays out — his preparation is what’s setting him apart. His teammates marvel at how early he shows up to the building every day. And Washington’s offense has been built around what he does well without forcing him to throw it 40 times a game. In Chicago, Williams has been noticeably better of late, but the challenge now is proving it against stiffer competition. Beating up on Carolina and Jacksonville doesn’t mean a whole lot these days. Backing it up after the bye week against Washington — which has led the NFC East since Week 3 — says even more.

Howe: Daniels has done everything right, but I admire the way the Commanders have continuously put him in a position to succeed. The coaching has been terrific, and the run game has helped. Daniels has then done his part to lift his teammates. I’m not sure how much Daniels can improve upon this next point, but the pre-draft concern was his ability to hold up to the physicality, and he’s already dealing with a rib injury. Williams took a little longer to get comfortable due to some line issues and injuries at the skill spots, but he never seemed to lose his way or his confidence. He just kept believing in his ability, and it’s very obvious the game has slowed down for him over the past few weeks. He’s tracking to play with a lot more confidence down the stretch, and I think the potential exists for Williams to help the Bears make a run.

Going by eyes and the odds, the Browns’ woes are about to get worse against the Ravens on Sunday. Step in the GM’s chair in Cleveland. What would you do with Deshaun Watson and his contract?

Sando: I’d release Watson after June 1 in the absence of a deal to launder Watson’s contract through another team. The release would be straightforward — cut him and watch his existing scheduled 2025 cap charge rise from nearly $73 million to nearly $119 million. The contract laundering would provide a longer-shot chance at mitigating some of the cap and cash consequences. Under that scenario, the Browns would trade Watson and draft capital to a team that would accept the draft capital, take on some of the cap/cash burden and release Watson, who would waive his no-trade clause as part of his own exit strategy.

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Keefer: I’d beg my bosses — namely owner Jimmy Haslam — to release Watson after June 1 and eat the dead money. It’s a substantial hit (nearly $119 million to the 2025 cap) but I think it’d be the best outcome for both parties in the long run. Cleveland will pay dearly for its mistake, namely that $230 million, fully guaranteed contract it handed him in 2022, but also has the chance to move on without Watson’s situation lingering for years, eating up headlines and holding this team back. There’s no salvaging this. Even if he returns in 2025, Watson will be a $46 million quarterback coming off a major injury who hasn’t looked right in four years. It’s time for logic to prevail, not stubbornness.

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Deshaun Watson and a Browns escape plan (once they finally admit it’s over): Sando’s Pick Six

Howe: The damage is done. Remember when the prevailing belief was the Packers would struggle in 2023 due to more than $50 million in dead money post-Aaron Rodgers? (I know, that example doesn’t hold up because they played their way into the playoffs, but I’m using it to provide perspective.) Well, the Browns already have $23 million in dead cap in 2025, and a post-June 1 cut would add another $119 million to that. That would create catastrophic ripple effects with the rest of the roster — much worse than the way the Broncos were forced to make cuts after releasing Russell Wilson. The Browns need to stop restructuring Watson’s deal to kick the cap hits down the road. Even if he played at a Mahomes-ian level with a $72.9 million cap hit, the Browns would need to be otherworldly with the players on their rookie contracts to be a playoff threat. Unless they’ve got a plan to spread Watson’s cap hits through void years for decades a la Bobby Bonilla, it’s time to face reality and recognize the contract has sabotaged their roster building for the foreseeable future.

The Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injuries will be a challenge for the Bucs to overcome. The Falcons seem capable of beating anyone and losing to anyone. What is your assessment of the top of the NFC South as these two teams prepare to meet Sunday?

Sando: The Buccaneers were going to win this division and still might. The receiver injuries open the door for the Falcons to overtake them as Kirk Cousins’ surgically repaired Achilles tendon potentially rounds into stronger form late in the season.

Keefer: That’s a pretty good synopsis and one of the reasons I don’t feel like anyone can trust the Falcons right now. The Bucs were my preseason pick to win the NFC South again — they’ve quietly claimed four straight division crowns — but with the recent losses of Evans and Godwin, Atlanta has its opening. A loss Sunday to the Falcons could spell a long couple of weeks for the Bucs. Before the bye, they’ll face each of last year’s Super Bowl teams — Kansas City and San Francisco — in consecutive weeks. Those are not teams you want to play short-handed, even though the 49ers are hurting, as well.

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Bucs’ Chris Godwin to have surgery; Mike Evans to miss several weeks

Howe: Excluding a couple of troubling stretches when Baker Mayfield has gotten turnover-prone, the QB has played well enough to be a fringe MVP candidate. I think he can still keep the Bucs in contention unless the Falcons flip a switch. Tampa offensive coordinator Liam Coen has also taken the offense to a much higher level, and his concepts will free up the lesser-known guys filling in for Evans and Godwin. I’m still far more concerned with the defense that’s given up the fifth-most points in the league. That’s no way to build a winning streak with troubles on offense. The Falcons had been pretty good until the blowout loss to the Seahawks. I don’t think we’re going to see the best version of Kirk Cousins this season because of the Achilles recovery, but they’re good enough to win the division while keeping games close.

The Cowboys and 49ers cross paths once again in one of the league’s great rivalries. But both teams are struggling. What needs to happen for the 49ers to win? What needs to happen for a Dallas win on Sunday night?

Sando: The 49ers win by running the ball all over Dallas’ weak run defense to control the game flow, delivering an easy night for quarterback Brock Purdy. The Cowboys win with a strong game from Dak Prescott and a game-changing play on special teams, where Dallas has been stronger than San Francisco this season.

Keefer: Personally, I feel like this game is way more about the Cowboys than the 49ers. San Francisco’s not right — too many injuries — but I don’t see Seattle running away with the division. The 49ers just need to stay in the hunt until Christian McCaffrey returns. A December run isn’t out of the question, not for a veteran group like this. But as for Sunday, it feels like the Cowboys’ season is teetering on the brink of collapse. Dallas can’t win at home, can’t beat anyone decent and can’t stop getting in its own way. This matchup won’t help. The 49ers have won three straight over the Cowboys, including two in the playoffs. And remember last year’s meeting: a 42-10 drubbing by San Francisco that foreshadowed the Cowboys’ playoff embarrassment three months later.

Howe: The 49ers’ injuries are the main story, but the subplot — and maybe a peek into a more detrimental issue — has been giving away games. They had no business losing to the Rams and Cardinals with the way those games were played. Then they made too many mistakes to take advantage of the Chiefs. Those are concerning trends for a team with conference championship expectations. I think the 49ers will beat the Cowboys, but they’ve yet to show they can close out a game this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven’t consistently run the ball or stopped the run. Until those elements improve, they won’t be a threat in the NFC.

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(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images) 

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