Spain vs England: Where the Euro 2024 final could be won and lost

After 28 days of drama and more than 80 hours of football, 24 teams have been filtered down to two. There is only one more game to play.

Spain and England prepare for battle at the Olympiastadion in Berlin on Sunday evening, meeting for the first time since 2018 to fight for the European Championship title — and there are some thrilling narratives to sift through.

How do you stop Spain’s relentless wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams? Have England become predictably unpredictable? Can you cut off Spain’s supply at source? England substitutions…. discuss.

The Athletic profiles the finalists’ strengths and weaknesses, the key battles, and the many sub-plots in your definitive tactical guide to the Euro 2024 final.

No one can begrudge Spain making it to the final.

After their 2-1 semi-final victory over France, Luis de la Fuente’s side became the first nation to win six matches in a single edition of the European Championships. They needed extra time against Germany but have otherwise dispatched each opponent in 90 minutes with the authority of ‘un viejo’ (an old man) swatting a fly away from his tapas.

With nine different goalscorers, Spain’s attacking threat has come from all over the pitch but it is clear where they possess the most danger.

Williams and Yamal have lit up this tournament on either flank, with their purposeful running and relentless dribbling dragging their side forward with their counter-attacking threat. The dynamic duo are responsible for 46 per cent of Spain’s total attempted take-ons this tournament.

The prodigious Yamal became the youngest scorer in European Championship history (16 years, 362 days) after his incredible semi-final goal against France.

It was a strike that could easily win goal of the tournament and you cannot say that France were not warned. Yamal’s tendency to cut inside onto his stronger left foot and curl a shot to the far post has become Arjen Robben-esque — you know what he is about to do but stopping it is another task altogether.

And here he is doing that a few times for Spain as an even younger child…

Beyond his shooting, Yamal’s creative threat has stood out the most. No Spanish player has logged more than his 11 open-play chances created and it is his wicked delivery to the back post that has consistently posed a threat.

GO DEEPER

Perfection, by Lamine Yamal

Against France, Fabian Ruiz should have done better from Yamal’s inviting cross but those whipped balls have become a trademark of the teenager — if that is even possible at his tender age — having assisted two goals using the same technique. He consistently cuts onto his stronger foot in the left channel or half-space and delivers a perfectly weighted ball to the oncoming team-mate crashing the box.

Opponents should not be surprised, given the near-identical deliveries he has provided for his club Barcelona across the past 12 months.

While Yamal received the plaudits for his performance on the right wing on Tuesday, it is down the left flank that Spain have most commonly channelled their attack this summer.

Against France, 59 per cent of their attacking touches came in the left third of the pitch — the second-highest share of any Euro 2024 game — with Spain seeing a notable tilt in their approach across the tournament. While 30 per cent of their overall attacking touches have come from Yamal’s right flank, 45 per cent have come down the left.

Why? Well, largely due to the attacking attributes on each side of the pitch. Where Yamal thrives off facing his opponent up in a one-v-one situation, Williams has been excellent at combining with left-back Marc Cucurella to overload their opponents on that side.

This is shown neatly in Spain’s passing network from their semi-final clash with France.

The rotations between Williams and Cucurella have been crucial to Spain’s attack. Sometimes, it will be the 21-year-old isolating his opposite number in the left channel (white) as Cucurella occupies the left half-space (red)…

…while other times, the pair will switch, as Cucurella hugs the touchline and Williams offers a penetrative run in behind between the opposition full-back and centre-back.

How can England stop Spain’s danger in wide areas?

In short, with great difficulty. England’s flexibility to shift to a back five in their quarter-final and semi-final clashes will be crucial as they look to condense the space across the width of the field.

In particular, Bukayo Saka’s energy will be required to protect England’s right side against Spain’s left-sided rotations. Saka came in for praise from his manager for his defensive discipline against the Netherlands on Wednesday evening, shifting his role out of possession according to the tactical tweaks made by the Dutch.

“The players made so many good decisions on the field,” Southgate said after the game.

“People like Bukayo Saka; the defensive responsibility he had. He started defending as a wing-back, then he had to go into midfield to defend, then he had to defend as a winger. There was so many things like that going on all night but I was really pleased with the quality of our play.”

Communication with Kyle Walker was crucial to such defensive discipline against the Netherlands. As shown below, Saka drops into a back five before Walker directs him to jump out to close Dutch midfielder Joey Veerman — allowing Walker to shuffle across to Cody Gakpo and retain England’s back four.

It is a simple yet vital action to ensure that the opposition does not progress further. You can easily substitute this situation out for Cucurella and Williams.

By the same token, England should be empowered to attack Spain’s left flank and target Cucurella’s defensive frailties — especially with the attacking prowess that Saka has shown in this tournament.

Cucurella has had a decent summer in a Spain shirt but has not been convincing at club level since making the move to Chelsea from Brighton in 2022. Of the chances that Spain have conceded, 42 per cent have come down their left flank compared with 24 per cent down their right — and the 25-year-old has often been the weak link, whether it is defending back-post crosses, including Spain’s concessions against Germany and France…

…or failing to block crosses himself from his own flank.

With nearly every England player having faced Cucurella in the Premier League, they will be familiar with his shortcomings out of possession. Preying upon them would be a decision that could prove lucrative.

Spain’s wingers have grabbed the headlines but their midfield engine has allowed them to hit top gear.

The partnership of Rodri and Ruiz has been near-perfect, giving freedom to Pedri and — more recently — Dani Olmo to pick up pockets of space between the lines.

Rodri is a man operating at the peak of his powers in the past 18 months, with a consistency that is so impressive that we are in danger of taking it for granted. Spain’s No 16 has made 403 passes in this tournament with a completion rate of 94 per cent. Let that sink in.

Coupled with the box-crashing, technical quality of Ruiz, Rodri has the capacity to catalyse the attack or act as the release valve under pressure — scaling up or down however he sees fit.

Breaking down Spain’s open-play shot-ending sequences, you can be confident that this formidable pair will have their fingerprints on their nation’s attack at some stage.

Therefore, stopping that midfield pairing will go a long way to stopping Spain’s fluid approach at source.

How might England do that? Well, Germany provided a decent blueprint in the first half of their quarter-final clash, with midfielders Ilkay Gundogan and Emre Can going man-for-man on Rodri and Fabian Ruiz during Spain’s build-up — preventing the pair from dictating the play.

There were countless examples where Germany pressed aggressively to ensure that neither received the ball in their own third. This forced the Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon to frequently launch the ball long, often conceding possession in the process.

If England can maintain similar discipline across the full game — potentially dropping Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden on the Spanish midfielders — it could prevent Spain’s engine from purring.

The issue is that De la Fuente’s side have a double threat in their approach. Step off them and they can look after possession for long periods. Try to get tight to them and they can punish you with their directness in wide areas.

Spain might be the standout favourites but England will arrive in Berlin as the more experienced nation in recent major tournaments.

The Spanish have not reached the final of the Euros since they won it in 2012 while Southgate has made it back-to-back finals and England are looking to overcome the disappointment of their loss to Italy in 2021.

A diplomatic appraisal would be that England have been confusing this summer. There have been flashes of cohesion in possession — particularly in the first half against the Dutch — but the overriding conclusion has been that Southgate’s side have shown strengths in individual moments rather than their general performance.

The speed of England’s forward play has been a huge source of frustration among fans and the numbers support their grievances.

Here, we can look at each nation’s “direct speed”, which outlines how fast they typically advance the ball towards goal (in metres per second). A higher number indicates a team more willing to get the ball forward quickly. Additionally, we can explore how much a team likes to keep hold of the ball when they have it, measured by “passes per sequence”. More passes per sequence suggests a more considered build-up: knocking the ball around more during a given possession rather than a quick hoof upfield.

Comparing England’s style to the remaining 23 teams, their approach in possession has been careful, risk-averse and lacking in bite for much of the tournament.

A high-possession style does not have to be a bad thing but England have not matched their on-ball dominance with attacking threat. Among all last-16 nations, only Romania and Georgia (0.7 per 90) averaged a lower non-penalty expected goals than England’s 0.72 per 90.

The highest nation on the list? That would be Spain, generating chances worthy of 1.8 goals per 90 across their six games.

Southgate’s tactical acumen has been questioned at times but his tweak to England’s system has provided a greater foundation in the past two games — particularly given the mixed efficacy of their pressing high up the field.

A move to a 3-4-2-1 has suited Saka, Foden and Bellingham in particular, with greater balance in attacks and greater protection in defence.

GO DEEPER

England’s change of shape against Switzerland worked – to a point – thanks to Bukayo Saka

Where things have still not quite clicked is with Harry Kane. England’s captain scored the crucial equaliser against the Netherlands, notching his sixth goal in the knockout stages of this tournament — more than any other player in European Championship history.

Notwithstanding his world-class quality in front of goal, Kane’s fitness and form has come under greater scrutiny considering the impact of Ollie Watkins on Wednesday evening.

At the risk of cherry-picking examples, it is Kane’s lack of inclination to run in behind that allows the opposition to squeeze the pitch at times. In the example below, Kane shimmies towards Bellingham on the ball (white arrow) despite a gap opening up between Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Ake (black arrow/area).

The situation is different but Watkins’ desire to run beyond the last line is not only crucial to his goal but it gives Cole Palmer the option to make that pass — running into space to stretch the opposition defence. Kane does not make those kinds of runs.

Kane is certainly not going to be dropped for the final but England might need both options to be true against Spain — a player who can drop in and overload central areas, but also a player who can stretch the defence.

Southgate’s substitutions have drawn scrutiny this summer — in both selection and timing.

Ultimately, his decisions have been validated in recent games. Ivan Toney’s late arrival proved crucial for England’s equaliser against Slovakia while the introduction of Palmer and Watkins was an inspired choice as the two combined for England’s winner against Netherlands.

That being said, the numbers don’t lie. Southgate has not given ample opportunity for his substitutions to settle into the game, with an average substitution time of 80 minutes being the second-latest of the sides to make it beyond the group stage.

This is particularly telling when considering that a lot of this time has been when England have been in a losing or drawing game state. Southgate’s side have spent just 22 per cent of the time in a winning game-state, compared with Spain’s 58 per cent — the highest of any nation. If things are not going to plan in Berlin, Southgate’s form suggests he is more likely to stick than twist.

GO DEEPER

Gareth Southgate has plenty of options on the bench – why is he so slow to use them?

Sure, England have not been free-flowing or convincing for a full game across the whole tournament, but maybe that is OK. In a contest where the margins are tight and individual quality counts for a lot, pragmatism can actually go a long way.

At club level, you only need to look as far as Champions League winners Real Madrid to know that having a rigid structure in and out of possession can be overrated in knockout football.

A closing thought on Sunday’s final would be to credit both managers’ commitment to their respective national set-up from the youth team to the national side.

De la Fuente coached Spain to the European Championship title at under-19 level (2016) and under-21 level (2019), and has the opportunity to complete a hat-trick with his senior squad. Meanwhile, Southgate’s commitment to the English FA dates back to 2013, leading England under-21s in the 2015 European Championship before his promotion to the senior set-up in 2016.

Both managers have been crucial to the promotion of youth within their national set-up and should be celebrated for the talent on show in Sunday’s final.

May the best team win.

(Photos: Getty Images/Design: Eamonn Dalton)