Could a small-market team be a surprise fit for Roki Sasaki? Parsing his agent’s words

At last month’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, agent Joel Wolfe held court in front of a large group of reporters and caused a stir when discussing his client, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is expected to sign with a major-league team after the international signing period begins on Jan. 15.

Speculation about where Sasaki would ultimately land in MLB has simmered since his Nippon Professional Baseball debut in 2021, stoked by his stellar performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. The Dodgers are currently seen as a favorite, but it’s clear they’re not the only team in the hunt.

At the Winter Meetings, Wolfe said that Sasaki was looking for a team that has had success on the field and a history of developing pitchers. He also mentioned access to direct flights from his new city to Japan as a consideration. But perhaps most interestingly, he said that because of Sasaki’s personal experiences growing up in the spotlight in Japan, a small market team outside of the media glare might have a greater chance than some might think.

“I think that there’s an argument to be made that a smaller, mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing coming from Japan, given what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media,” Wolfe said. “It might be — I’m not saying it will be — I don’t know how he’s going to view it, but it might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market.”

Teams took note, with some altering their presentations to account for the perceived preferences.

Sasaki, 23, was officially posted last month by Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. He can pick his team, but because he is not a free agent, he will be bound by international signing bonus limits.

Just before the new year, Wolfe held a teleconference and said 20 teams submitted pitches for Sasaki.

But where will he go? And could it really be a team outside of the big coastal juggernauts? Would it be possible to break down which teams might be good fits for Sasaki, using only the criteria Wolfe laid out? (While of course understanding that there are many, many factors at play beyond these.)

For this exercise, we looked at all 30 teams and graded them on four factors (history of success, small media market, pitching development and access to Japan), ranking each team from one through 30 based on a specific metric. The best earned 30 points and the worst earned one point in each category.

We don’t know who will ultimately win the Sasaki Sweepstakes, but perhaps some teams have a better chance than we previously thought.

History of success

What Wolfe said: “The best I can say is, he has paid attention to how teams have done, as far as overall success, both this year and years past. He does watch a lot of Major League Baseball.”

Methodology: This is pretty straightforward. Does the team win? For this, we’ll look at the winning percentage of MLB teams over the last four full seasons.

Limitations: Using just the regular-season win totals from the last four seasons doesn’t include postseason success. This formula also weighs each season equally, and the 2021 Orioles (52 wins) and the 2021 White Sox (93 wins) are in much different situations than their 2025 counterparts.

Conclusion: The Dodgers are good. We knew that. Only once in the last four years has the team failed to win 100 games — and in that season, they won the World Series. With no repeat World Series winners over that period, it is clear that if winning is all that matters, joining the Dodgers is the way to go.

But don’t count out the Braves. Atlanta has the second-most regular-season victories over the last four seasons and a recent World Series title of their own. The Astros, who won the World Series in 2022, have the third-most victories over that time. The Rangers won a World Series in 2023, but only eight teams have fewer regular-season victories over the last four years.

If there’s a sleeper in this group, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee’s won the fifth-most regular-season games (366) and only the New York Yankees have won more regular-season games (367) without a World Series title in that timeframe.

Small media markets

What Wolfe said: “I think that there’s an argument to be made that a smaller, mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing coming from Japan.”

Methodology: Not all media markets are created equal. Boston is the seventh-largest TV market in the country, but playing in Boston is traditionally considered a particularly intense media experience. Boston, New York and Philadelphia have reputations as among the toughest media markets, while large markets like Los Angeles, Dallas and Atlanta don’t have the same reputation. For this exercise, we’ve used the 2024 Baseball Writers Association of America rolls and ranked each chapter by the number of members listed in that chapter as a reflection of the media attention.

Limitations: Using the BBWAA chapters just tells total numbers, it does not include just how many writers are at the ballpark every day. Also, there are five chapters — New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore-Washington and San Francisco-Oakland — with two teams. Both teams share the same score, even if the media surrounding the Dodgers or Cubs is greater than the Angels or White Sox. The New York chapter is by far the largest because many national writers also live in New York. Of the one-team chapters, only Boston had more members in 2024 than Miami, although many of Miami’s members cover players from Spanish-speaking countries as much or more than the Marlins. Also, this metric does not include TV or radio coverage. It also doesn’t factor in the Japanese media, which travels to cover the country’s best players, regardless of where they are playing. In 2020, at least two Japanese media members were in Cincinnati for much of the season just for Shogo Akiyama, who spent that season mostly as a platoon player.

Conclusion: The Brewers, Rays, Reds and Rockies could really bear down on Wolfe’s comments about small markets and media attention in their pitch.

Developing pitching

What Wolfe said: “He’s talked to a lot of players, foreign players, that have been on his team with Chiba Lotte. He asked questions about weather, comfortability, pitching development.”

Methodology: For this exercise, we’ll use Cy Young  Award voting from the past four years. This, of course, benefits teams with established pitchers and teams like the Yankees who sign big-name free agents, but using the cumulative voting totals hopefully gives credit to teams whose pitchers consistently garner votes. For pitchers who were traded during the season in which they earned points, we’ve used the team that pitchers started the season with because the bulk of the innings and the preparation were from the first team.

Limitations: This is less quantifiable than simple W-L records. Some teams are known for developing their pitchers at the minor-league level and some, like the Astros and Rays, are known for taking talented pitchers and improving them.

Using just the Cy Young voting limits the pool to mostly starters, which is OK since Sasaki is going to be signed and used as a starter. But this method only measures the very best performances, and how much of that is on the pitcher and how much of that is on the team? It also discounts previous advancements, such as giving the Yankees credit on Gerrit Cole, who became an ace while with the Astros and was drafted by the Pirates. It also gives more weight to the voting results, with unanimous selections earning a much higher point total than close decisions.

Conclusion: The Blue Jays, surprisingly, top the list. Much of that comes from Robbie Ray’s 2021 Cy Young campaign, but the team also had third-place finishers in 2022 (Alek Manoah) and 2023 (Kevin Gausman). Manoah is the only one of those three to come up through the Blue Jays’ system (and we’ll ignore what’s happened since then), while Ray won the award in his first full season. Gausman’s third-place finish came in his first year with the team after signing as a free agent.

The Phillies finished second, followed by the Braves. The Brewers finished ninth by this metric, but that would seem low considering the pitching the Brewers have gotten over the last four years. The Astros, a team credited with turning around several pitching careers, finished sixth.

Direct flights to and from Japan

What Wolfe said: “When we supply information to our Japanese players, long before they come over here, one of the things that we provide for them is direct flights from Japan and the amount of time it takes for family to come and visit you. I think about five or 10 years ago that was something that maybe they weighed a little bit more, but now you can fly direct from Japan to most of the major cities in the U.S.”

Methodology: There are direct flights to Japan from 15 different airports in the continental United States. Toronto also has direct flights to Japan. For this exercise, we will use the distance from the team’s home ballpark to the nearest airport with a direct flight to Japan.

Limitations: There are a ton, but we’ll start with the fact that when traveling, the most relevant unit of measurement is time, not distance. However, variables including frequency of flights, schedules, traffic and overall distance come into play — a flight with a stop from the West Coast will likely take less time than a nonstop flight from the East Coast to Japan. And, yes, O’Hare airport may only be 14 miles from Wrigley Field, but there are times of day that it can be a long drive.

Conclusion: San Diego is the clear winner here. San Diego International Airport doesn’t have the volume of flights available at LAX, but it does have the bonus of not being LAX or having LAX traffic, which can add hours to travel time. The Twins are a sneaky good spot with direct flights.

Of note: Though it isn’t reflected in our calculation, Seattle offers the shortest flight time (10 hours, 10 minutes) to Tokyo.

Final conclusion

Why are the good teams good? Well, those good teams win games, develop players and have money. Those three are actually tied to the categories given — with market size in part determining both direct flights to Japan and media attention, both of which impact revenue. That’s why it’s no surprise that the top three teams in our exercise are the Padres, Braves and Astros.

It is only when we get to fourth place that we have one of those small-market teams in the Brewers. The Brewers tick all those boxes, with an out-of-the-box pick in O’Hare International. (It may be in a different state, but O’Hare is just over an hour and a $114 Uber ride from Milwaukee.)

Will the Brewers be the pick? It seems unlikely, but Matt Arnold’s team can make some interesting points in its sales pitch.

The Padres had already been a team seen as having a shot at Sasaki’s services, and not just because of the team’s recent history of handing out major contracts and making big splashes. The Padres tick all the boxes that Wolfe laid out, both in general terms and in our exercise. While the top 10 is littered with big-market bullies, the Mariners, who have as much history with Japanese players as any team, finished 10th, followed by the Twins. Both teams are ahead of the Dodgers on this list, but somehow, it seems Los Angeles still has a pretty good chance of landing another Japanese superstar.

(Photo of Roki Sasaki: Eric Espada / Getty Images)