College Football Playoff sleepers: 13 unranked teams to watch

College football’s postseason enters a new era in 2024 with the arrival of the 12-team College Football Playoff, featuring automatic bids for the five top-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large selections. The bracket intrigue will only build throughout the fall, but one thing’s for sure: More teams will have a realistic shot to play for a national title than ever before.

But how many more? It’s assumed many of the nation’s elite programs will play their way into the top 12 most years, but the expanded field leaves room for a number of surprises, especially in the first year of a new system. Below, The Athletic’s college football writers make their picks for this season’s most enticing sleeper College Football Playoff teams. Programs ranked in the preseason Coaches Poll and voted atop their league’s preseason media poll were excluded from consideration.

This might be the Hokies’ best team since Frank Beamer retired. Tech found something in quarterback Kyron Drones and won five of its last seven games, including a bowl, to close out 2023. Drones threw for 17 touchdowns with just three picks and ran for 818 yards last season, igniting a long-dormant offense. Defensive lineman Antwaun Powell-Ryland (14.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks) and a loaded secondary return on the unit in which head coach Brent Pry specializes. The Hokies rank top-five nationally in returning roster production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Maybe there’s room for a slow-cooked sleeper to sneak into the 12-team field. — Kyle Tucker

The Cyclones return nine starters on both offense and defense, including breakout quarterback Rocco Becht, his top four receivers, the defense’s top five tacklers and leading rusher Abu Sama. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State and Kansas State last year and wraps up this season with a trip to Utah and at home against K-State. — Scott Dochterman

Jeff Brohm led the Cardinals to a 10-win season and an ACC championship game appearance in his first year at the helm, and he has some key pieces in place for what should be a sound defense, including end Ashton Gillotte. Can Texas Tech transfer quarterback Tyler Shough thrive in Brohm’s system? There will be ample opportunity to rise up the rankings with games against Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami. — Jesse Temple

Believe in the second-year leap. Louisville returns 15 players with at least five starts in 2023 and bolstered that group with a robust transfer portal class. The schedule is also favorable: Louisville only plays two of the top eight teams in the ACC preseason poll (Clemson and Miami), and the road trip to South Bend is a prime opportunity to beef up the playoff resume. —Kennington Smith III 

Are we not talking and writing enough about the Mountaineers? Quarterback Garrett Greene has a shot to contend for the Heisman. Neal Brown’s team has a chance to upset Penn State and make an immediate statement in Week 1. West Virginia has seven home games, which could help tip the scales with plenty of showcase opportunities as Penn State, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor and UCF all travel to Morgantown. — Audrey Snyder 

The Bobcats came in atop the West Division in the Sun Belt preseason poll but still finished behind East-leading Appalachian State in the overall vote, qualifying them as a G5 sleeper. G.J. Kinne’s first team went 8-5, including a season-opening road win over Baylor, and Kinne dipped into the transfer portal this offseason for quarterback Jordan McCloud, the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year for James Madison. The schedule sets up favorably, too: The Bobcats have winnable yet respectable nonconference games at home against Arizona State and UTSA, plus a Sun Belt slate that avoids the East Division’s top five teams based on the preseason poll. — Justin Williams

UCF

The Knights were the only Big 12 newcomer last season to reach a bowl game, and head coach Gus Malzahn drastically upgraded his roster through the transfer portal, adding 27 new players with 327 college starts between them. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson comes over from Arkansas to lead the offense, which features two 1,400-yard rushers from a year ago in RJ Harvey and Peny Boone (Toledo transfer). They’ll score plenty. — Manny Navarro

UNLV

What in the name of Randall Cunningham? (Or Stacey Augmon?) Actually, it’s in the name of Barry Odom, who was a very good defensive coordinator at Missouri and less of a good head coach there but has found his level out west. UNLV was picked second in the Mountain West, and the only big question is how it will replace quarterback Jayden Maiava, who transferred to USC (after first committing to Georgia). That matter does need to be resolved quickly because three early nonconference games will be pivotal to any CFP hopes: at Houston, at Kansas, home against Syracuse. It’ll be tough, but UNLV making the first expanded CFP would be a great story. — Seth Emerson

If the Rebels can figure out how to replace Maiava, they are going to be dangerous. The Rebels reached the Mountain West championship game in Odom’s first season, and his team has a ton of talent surrounding the quarterback. But we all know how important quarterbacks are in college football. — Daniel Shirley

Call me crazy, but I believe in the Scarlet Knights this year. Greg Schiano has done a great job recruiting in the program’s backyard and returns a ton of talent from a team that actually led Ohio State at halftime last season. They’ll have a new quarterback in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis, and running back Kyle Monangai is one of the best running backs the country doesn’t talk enough about. The schedule breaks right for contention, too: The Scarlet Knights don’t play Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa or Michigan this year. — Cameron Teague Robinson

You want to get nuts? Let’s get nuts. The parameters for this exercise basically require a team to be in a high-leverage situation where one or two unexpected twists and turns upends all assumptions. I give you the Badgers, who get Alabama at home in mid-September — the first time since 1971 that an SEC team will play at Camp Randall Stadium. The place will be bonkers, and the Crimson Tide will be coached by someone other than Nick Saban. Then there’s USC on the road two weeks later. Not insurmountable! And finally, Oregon, at home, in mid-November, when the climate could be very unfriendly to those unfamiliar with late fall in the Midwest. Even if the Badgers lose one or two of these games, that’s no longer fatal in a 12-team playoff. And Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback is, himself, a high-leverage wild card. — Brian Hamilton

The Bulls took a huge leap forward in Alex Golesh’s first season as head coach, going from 1-11 to 7-6 with a 45-0 bowl win against Syracuse. With star quarterback Byrum Brown back and a defense that can only get better, keep an eye on Tampa. The nonconference schedule is tough with Alabama and Miami, but the conference schedule could be favorable, with USF set to play four of the bottom five teams in the AAC preseason poll, plus conference frontrunner Memphis at home. If the Bulls can get through the first five games at 3-2, watch out for a late run. — Chris Vannini

SMU

The ACC race feels like a bit of a wild card, so why not pick the conference newcomer to make waves in Year 1? Last year’s Mustangs ranked No. 8 in the FBS in scoring offense en route to an 11-3 record and an AAC championship. Quarterback Preston Stone returns after throwing for 3,197 yards (26th in the FBS) and 28 touchdowns (11th) with a 161.3 passing efficiency rating (13th) as a redshirt sophomore. Of course, the Mustangs were beat out by undefeated Liberty for last year’s G5 New Year’s Six bid, so there’s an added chip on their shoulders against the committee. — Jayna Bardahl

I’m a big believer in new coach Jon Sumrall after his time at Troy, where he inherited a program that won a combined 15 games in the previous three seasons and went 23-4 in his two years there with back-to-back Sun Belt titles. Sumrall brought both of his coordinators with him to Tulane and did a solid job of adding portal talent to an already athletic Green Wave roster. The schedule offers opportunities to impress the committee with a home game against Kansas State and a road trip to Oklahoma. And Memphis, the AAC preseason favorite, must travel to New Orleans in the regular season finale. — Sam Khan Jr.

The Sun Belt contenders could cannibalize themselves as Playoff hopefuls, and Liberty’s strength of schedule likely won’t be all that impressive. That leaves room for someone else to break through and earn the G5’s guaranteed spot in the 12-team playoff. After a reset year that featured nine wins (two over Power 5 schools), the Bulldogs bring back quarterback Mikey Keene and have the schedule that could set up for a nice run even with the retirement of head coach Jeff Tedford this summer. — Antonio Morales

(Top illustration photos: Chris Jones, Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)