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The Trade War Has Crushed Crypto: 1 Cryptocurrency That Could Still Win | The Motley Fool

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The Trade War Has Crushed Crypto: 1 Cryptocurrency That Could Still Win | The Motley Fool

Crypto prices have collapsed as President Donald Trump’s trade war has expanded. Across the board, crypto prices are down for the year, and many show little sign of recovery anytime soon.

Against a backdrop of escalating tariffs, investors are moving from risky assets to less risky assets, and that makes any cryptocurrency an easy candidate to drop from a portfolio. But there’s one cryptocurrency that could still win, and that’s Bitcoin (BTC -0.19%).

Bitcoin as digital gold

During the past 30 days, Bitcoin is up 14%, primarily due to the revival of the digital gold investment thesis. In the eyes of many investors, Bitcoin is starting to behave just like physical gold, and that makes it extraordinarily valuable. During times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin could be a potential store of value.

While there is still skepticism about this digital gold thesis, there is also a growing body of evidence to suggest that Bitcoin holds up even better than gold during moments of peak economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Last September, BlackRock issued a 10-page report, titled as “Bitcoin As a Unique Diversifier,” that examined six different external shocks to the world economy that occurred between 2020 and 2024, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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In five of six cases, Bitcoin performed better than gold over the long haul. And in half of the cases, Bitcoin performed better than gold over both the short term and long term. So that gives me a lot of confidence that Bitcoin can still be a winner, even if the trade war escalates further. As investors come to grips with the consequences of tariffs, they are likely to turn to Bitcoin as a store of value. That could explain why Bitcoin has started to rally during the past 30 days.

Institutional adoption

The second major factor is a ramp-up in institutional adoption of Bitcoin during the past 18 months, thanks primarily to the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last year. They have now hauled in more than $100 billion from investors looking for an easy way to get exposure to Bitcoin.

Arguably, these Bitcoin ETFs, which started trading back in January 2024, were the most successful new product launch from Wall Street in decades. And they are attracting all sorts of investors. First were the hedge funds. Then came the big Wall Street investment banks. And then came the first wave of big institutional investors, such as pension funds. Next up could be big sovereign wealth funds.

At the same time, another form of institutional adoption is coming from within the U.S. government. Trump campaigned on a pro-crypto platform, and has already taken several steps to advance Bitcoin adoption within the U.S. The centerpiece move was the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve back in March, which officially designates Bitcoin as a national strategic asset.

Bitcoin as a new reserve currency?

The current uncertainty around tariffs has a lot of smart people on Wall Street talking about the potential demise of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world. The dollar is now trading at three-year lows, U.S. equities are down sharply, and long-term Treasury yields are on the rise. Combined, this starts to paint a picture that investors are getting out of dollar-denominated assets.

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Image source: Getty Images.

The fancy term for this is “de-dollarization,” and it refers to a world in which the U.S. dollar eventually loses its reserve currency status. With that in mind, one currency that is now being talked about as a potential replacement for the U.S. dollar is Bitcoin. It’s global, it’s non-sovereign, and it is not tied to the specific economic fortunes of any country.

Admittedly, this scenario is likely a long way off, but it hints at the long-term staying power of Bitcoin and its growing importance to the global financial system. It also suggests that, even in a worst-case meltdown of the global economy, Bitcoin might still be a winner.

Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool

As BlackRock pointed out last year in its report, Bitcoin has a very unique risk-reward profile. In some ways, it acts as a “risk on” asset. And in other ways, it acts as a “risk off” asset.

Right now, given all the economic uncertainty, I’m less focused on Bitcoin’s “risk on” properties, and more focused on its “risk off” properties. The trade war might have crushed crypto, but it won’t be able to crush Bitcoin.

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‘De-Worsified, Not Diversified’: Robert Kiyosaki Warns Investors on a Hidden Risk

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‘De-Worsified, Not Diversified’: Robert Kiyosaki Warns Investors on a Hidden Risk

Key Takeaways

Word Play With a Warning

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the best-selling personal finance book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” is recasting a familiar piece of investing advice. In a post on X, he argued that many investors only believe they are protected, adding:

“De-Worse-ified means they think they are diversified, but they have all their diversified assets, such as gold, silver, Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, real estate, and oil, in one asset class.”

His point is that spreading money across many holdings does not help if those holdings all move the same way in a crisis. When a liquidity shock hits, correlations rise and supposedly diverse portfolios can fall in unison, leaving investors “de-worsified” rather than diversified.

Image source: X

The commentary is consistent with the stance Kiyosaki has pushed throughout 2026 as he recently named bitcoin among the safest investments for the year, grouping it with what he calls real assets. He has repeatedly listed gold, silver, oil, food, bitcoin, and ether as his preferred holdings, framing them as scarce stores of value that printed money cannot dilute.

He has paired that view with stark price calls, setting a target of $250,000 for BTC by year’s end alongside a longer-term goal of $1 million. At current levels, the move would require a gain of more than 230%. On the precious metals side of things, he recently suggested a possible $200-per-ounce silver level this year, calling the metal’s climb a signal of mounting financial stress.

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Kiyosaki’s broader thesis is darker still, warning investors of a historic market crash that he ties to surging global debt and fragile private credit markets, urging followers to build income streams, learn trade skills, and accumulate hard assets before the storm.

Timing Is Everything

The “de-worsified” warning arrives at a tense moment for markets, especially as bitcoin posted its worst week since the 2022 collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange, sliding below $60,000 as record exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and risk-off sentiment gripped the sector.

That is exactly the kind of broad drawdown scenario (where bitcoin, equities, and other assets fall together) that Kiyosaki has used time and again to illustrate his point.

That said, he has become an increasingly polarizing voice within the broader economic landscape, with skeptics pointing out that his crash predictions are frequent and his price targets aggressive (and that he has issued similar warnings for years). Supporters argue his core message of owning scarce assets, avoiding hidden correlation, and preparing for volatility is a reasonable hedge against an era of heavy money printing and rising debt.

Whether or not his $250,000 bitcoin call lands, the distinction he is drawing is a real one, as true diversification really does depend on owning assets that behave differently (not simply owning many of them). In a market where everything from gold to crypto to stocks can move on the same macro headlines, that lesson may matter more than any single forecast.

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After hundreds of millions lost to fraud, NC lawmakers push for crypto ATM protections

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After hundreds of millions lost to fraud, NC lawmakers push for crypto ATM protections

North Carolina lawmakers on Tuesday advanced a bill to protect consumers from cryptocurrency kiosk fraud.

House Bill 920, which passed the House with a 115-to-0 vote, aims to regulate an industry that its author claims is unregulated in the state.

“It’s the wild, wild West,” Rep. Neal Jackson, R-Moore, said during a committee discussion on Tuesday. “There is no regulation whatsoever in North Carolina. That’s what we’re trying to do here.”

Lawmakers cited a growing amount of fraud as the reason for the bill. About $389 million in losses were reported last year through cryptocurrency ATMs, a 58% increase from 2024, according to the FBI. The majority of those impacted are 60-plus.

The bill now goes to the Senate for consideration. It seeks to:

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  • Require licenses for all kiosk operators under the Money Transmissions Act.
  • Place operators under the supervision of the Commissioner of Banks.
  • Require fraud warnings and transaction receipts for every transaction.
  • Require compliance and consumer protection officers that are always available.

It also seeks to place limitations on transactions in an effort to reduce fraud, requiring a $2,000 daily limit for the first 30 days for new customers and a $5,000 daily limit for existing customers, who would qualify after 30 days.

While other states have service fees between 20% and 30%, Jackson suggests putting a cap at 14%.

State Rep. Tim Longest, D-Wake, expressed concern about having the kiosks at all in the state. He said the bill’s protections could be stronger. 

“These machines can be the subject of fraud, basically facilitating fraud on seniors and other vulnerable individuals and in those cases,” Longest said. “… In crafting regulations, I think it’s important that we ensure consumers are adequately protected by those regulations and I do not believe that, under the language of the bill currently before you, those regulations are sufficient to protect consumers.”

Jackson pointed to this bill as an effort to regulate, not shut down, cryptocurrency kiosks in the state and said there are even more consumer protections in place.

David N. Tente, the executive director of the ATM Industry Association, said the bill — and others like it — is problematic because it requires operators to provide refunds to fraud victims in certain instances.  

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“In most cases, the cash in the ATM/kiosk does not belong to the operator, which means that returning any of it would be, technically, theft,” Tente said. “If you give someone cash for something, and you change your mind after they leave, you probably won’t get it back.”

He added: “We certainly feel sorry for those being scammed, but there are very simple things you can do to avoid it.”  

Tente said these kinds of scams have existed for centuries, adding: “They are still here — just using different means of payment.”

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Zcash Climbs 80% Since June 5 as Traders Shrug off Orchard Bug Fears

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Zcash Climbs 80% Since June 5 as Traders Shrug off Orchard Bug Fears

Key Takeaways

The Orchard Vulnerability

Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) surged on Tuesday, jumping 11.3% to $478 as it maintained a steady recovery that began shortly after it plunged to just under $265. At the time of writing (5:32 a.m. EST), the privacy coin’s latest climb pushed its gains since June 5 to approximately 80% and saw ZEC’s market capitalization reclaim the $8 billion threshold.

The coin, alongside rival monero, was one of a handful of altcoins that logged gains exceeding 5% even as bitcoin dipped below the $63,000 threshold. ZEC’s surge above $470 on June 9 resulted in $11.5 million in short positions on the coin being wiped out in 24 hours, compared with $2.43 million in liquidated long bets.

While Zcash has since wrestled back its top-dog status from chief rival Monero, the asset is still trading at a steep discount compared to its pre-June 5 peak of just over $600. Before the correction, ZEC was riding a powerful wave of momentum, fueled by a resurgence in the crypto-privacy narrative and high-profile endorsements from industry heavyweights like Arthur Hayes. However, that bullish trajectory ground to a sudden halt. The catalyst for the reversal was the unsettling discovery of a critical vulnerability within Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool—a zero-knowledge security flaw that had quietly lay dormant since 2022.

Despite this, supporters of the privacy coin believe the uncovering of the bug has not damaged ZEC’s long-term appeal. Posting on X, Eunice Wong insisted there is an extremely low likelihood an exploit was executed and said traders who offloaded their holdings had overreacted.

“Long-term thesis hasn’t changed. In an AI-driven world where every transaction is tracked, financial privacy will become the scarcest asset, and ZEC is still one of the strongest privacy plays in crypto. Catching this falling knife is going to look like a genius move,” Wong wrote.

Matthew Brienen, managing partner at Cryptocharged, said while he recently reduced his ZEC holdings, it was purely a risk-management decision rather than a change in conviction. Nevertheless, he offered an explanation for why caution is warranted even if there is no proof that ZEC was counterfeited.

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“The Orchard bug isn’t a confirmed inflation event. It’s a confirmed inability to prove supply integrity. Those are not the same thing. The most important fundamental fact to remember is that turnstile accounting is not the same as proving Orchard balances are legitimate. You can track what entered. You can track what exited. That doesn’t prove every claim inside the pool was valid,” Brienen explained.

He added, however, that if counterfeit Orchard notes do exist, they could remain hidden until redemption is ultimately forced. According to Brienen, the recent price action suggests that is exactly what the market is trying to price in.

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