How spot ether ETF launch may impact the broader crypto market (Cryptocurrency:ETH-USD)

Spot ethereum (ETH-USD) exchange-traded funds are expected to begin trading on Tuesday, July 23. The highly anticipated launch is poised to drive outsized gains in ether’s price, as many proponents have predicted, though crypto-market traders appear to be underestimating the full impact.

Indeed, as of Friday midafternoon trading, ether (ETH-USD) slipped 1.3% from a month ago. But it’s still up some 49% so far this year, amid a wider rally among major token prices. Its performance has been poor relative to peers in the current cycle, which Seeking Alpha analyst Richard Durant attributed to “competition, scaling problems or [tighter] monetary policy.”

In May, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved key regulatory requirements from prospective issuers of ETF investing directly into ether (ETH-USD). But the regulator still needs to approve the applicants’ S-1 registration filings in order for the products to go live. A number of investment giants, such as BlackRock (BLK), VanEck and Ark Investment Management, are all striving to gain the pivotal first-mover advantage in the race to introduce a spot ETH ETF.

“The launch of an ETH ETF would be a boost of validation to the crypto ecosystem at a time when the industry is trying to judge the potential impact of U.S. elections later this year,” said Darius Tabai, CEO of Vertex and former trader at Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse.

Given the uncertainty around both developments, he added, “it feels like the market is not fully pricing in the impact of the ETF and that we could easily see gains of 25%+ on price if a spot ETF is approved.”

With ether’s (ETH-USD) status as the main smart contract platform in the crypto world, any post-approval price gains would likely more directly impact the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, he said. “If a move is sustained, I would expect more of a potential halo effect for [alt coins] in contrast to the (BTC-USD) launch where alts really struggled to maintain a bid.”

Recall in January when Spot BTC ETFs debuted in the U.S. Since then, the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) has jumped over 40%, a move partly driven by strong and persistent inflows (until recently) into such products.

Mara Schmiedt, ETH expert and CEO of Alluvial, laid out the key parallels and differences between the spot BTC and ETH launches. “While BTC spot ETF inflows hit a higher-than-expected ~$60 billion [assets under management] target in the U.S. this year, we can anticipate ETH ETF inflows to reach approximately 30% of BTC’s total market size, or ~$20 billion+ at current prices.”

She contended that inflows into ETH ETFs could amount to much more than $20B in the initial months post-launch, as they are expected to result in higher pricing sensitivity relative to BTC.

Aligning with Schmiedt’s assessment, ether-holding funds, once cleared for trading, will likely attract slower demand than spot BTC peers, partly due to the “lack of an ETH staking feature in the ETF,” Bernstein wrote in a June note.

While inflows are likely to support ether’s (ETH-USD) price, outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (OTCQX:ETHE) could initially put downward pressure on it, SA Analyst Durant warned. “A similar dynamic occurred with Bitcoin, where there was 6.5 billion USD of outflows from Grayscale in the first month. The fact that Ethereum ETFs will not offer staking rewards to investors may also limit their appeal.”