Cryptocurrency investors are understandably nervous as Bitcoin (BTC 4.08%) has fallen around 20% in the last three months. Some fear this could be the start of another crypto winter, but analysts at Bernstein remain optimistic. The brokerage recently predicted that Bitcoin will rally in the coming two years. It also reiterated its price target of $1 million by 2033. With the lead crypto hovering around the $90,000 mark, that suggests an upside of over 1,000%.

Cryptocurrencies are volatile assets, and unfortunately, huge price swings come with the territory. Bernstein’s targets are a timely reminder to focus on the long-term horizon, which could bring dramatic growth.

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Why Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin

Bernstein had originally forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 this year. The recent slump has poured cold water on that projection. Now, the analysts predict that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of next year and push on to $200,000 in 2027.

Continued institutional demand plays a key part in the firm’s belief that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033. Bernstein points out that spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have been minimal in recent months, despite the extreme price correction. It argues that panic selling by retail investors is being offset by institutional buying.

Perhaps most importantly, Bernstein argues that Bitcoin has moved beyond its four-year Bitcoin halving cycle. Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin mining rewards get halved. It’s built into the programming as a way to control supply. In each of the previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price has risen to new highs in the 12 to 18 months after the halving.

• 2016 halving: Bitcoin set a new all-time high in December 2017.
• 2020 halving: Bitcoin set two new highs in April and November 2021.
• 2024 halving: Bitcoin set new highs in December 2024 and October 2025.

If the pattern holds, we could expect Bitcoin’s price to trend downward next year, having peaked in October. The very expectation of a slump is one of the factors behind faltering investor sentiment. However, Bernstein is one of several crypto analysts who think we’re entering new territory.

It joins leading institutions, including Ark Invest and Grayscale, in saying that Bitcoin will break away from its old cycles. Rather than a prolonged winter, they argue 2026 could bring new highs. The logic is that Bitcoin has matured, attracting significant institutional funds. Plus, next year may bring further rate cuts and regulatory clarity.

Bitcoin predictions are not set in stone

Price predictions are useful, especially when they come from established financial institutions. Even so, I’d take them with a grain of salt. This is still a relatively new and fast-changing industry, and there are too many moving parts to give more than a best guess. Case in point: Bitcoin is a long way from the $200,000 that Bernstein originally predicted for 2025.

Plus, those optimistic price targets only tell part of the picture. Analysts zoomed in on the stabilizing effect of institutional investors, which is just one of several possible growth drivers for the lead crypto. Others, such as its potential as a form of digital gold, are becoming harder to believe. For example, Bitcoin’s recent volatility undermines its safe-haven asset credentials. It has some of the traits of gold, but it doesn’t yet work as a store of value.

Similarly, in November, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood slashed her price target for Bitcoin. She told CNBC that the rapid growth of stablecoins and their use in emerging markets eats into a role the firm thought Bitcoin would play. That said, her long-term conviction is still extremely bullish — to her, Bitcoin is a whole new monetary system, and we’re only just beginning to see what it might do.

The idea of an asset growing from $90,000 to $1 million in eight years is extremely attractive. It may happen — Bitcoin has gained over 400% since December 2017. However, it is an ambitious target, and that level of potential growth comes with corresponding levels of risk. Only allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to cryptocurrencies. That way, you benefit if Bitcoin goes to the moon, without risking your financial security if it falls to the gutter.