Business
Trump’s ‘Gold Card’ Set Off Panic in an Unexpected Place: Real Estate
President Trump’s plan to sell green cards for $5 million each, a program he is calling a “gold card,” has largely been met with a shrug. It’s not clear exactly how the program would work, if it’s legal or how many potential immigrants would really pay $5 million for a path to U.S. citizenship.
But in a niche area of dealmaking, alarm bells are blaring.
Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said on Tuesday that the plan to effectively sell green cards would replace the EB-5 investor visa, a favorite source of funding for major real estate projects.
Massive developments — from New York’s Hudson Yards to the San Francisco Shipyard to, yes, Trump Plaza in Jersey City — have been financed in part by overseas investors applying to the EB-5 program, which grants permanent U.S. residence. Such investors are motivated by a green card, not by maximizing returns, and so for developers their capital tends to be less expensive than borrowing money from a typical commercial lender.
The real estate company owned by the family of Trump’s son-in-law, Kushner Capital, drew scrutiny for its use of EB-5 funding during the first Trump administration.
Overall, the EB-5 program does not bring in a lot of money — about $4 billion last year in the context of the $28 trillion U.S. economy — but it represents a huge profit bump for a small but powerful political contingency: major real estate developers. They are not likely to see EB-5 killed without a fight.
“Cheap capital is the crack cocaine to the real estate industry and probably every other industry,” said Matt Gordon, the C.E.O. of E3iG, which advises both foreign investment-based visa applicants and U.S. companies seeking funding.
“They and their rather large political donations are going to be very motivated.”
Some background: EB-5 visas were established in 1990 to encourage investment in rural and economically depressed areas. Foreigners who invest either $800,000 or $1.05 million, creating at least 10 jobs, are eligible. Initially, that meant directly creating 10 jobs. Now most companies meet the requirement by showing the overall economy will gain 10 jobs as a result of each investor’s funding.
All sorts of companies can seek EB-5 investment — DealBook heard about pharmacies, hospitals, day care centers and manufacturing plants that raised money through the program — but the vast majority are real estate deals.
News of Trump’s gold card plan sent this ecosystem reeling. “Naturally the whole world is panicking,” said Ishaan Khanna, the president of the American Immigrant Investor Alliance, a group that lobbies on behalf of EB-5 investors. “As India and China woke up, my phone blew up.”
“Everybody I’m hearing from is like ‘rush’ — get in as much as you can, because who knows how long” the program will last in its current form, Gordon said, “On both the sponsor side and on the immigrant side.”
Developers who qualify for the program win big savings. For example: One project Gordon is working on, a $100 million 19-story apartment building, qualifies for about $35 million of EB-5 funding. Traditional mezzanine debt financing for such a project might come with an interest rate of 10 or 12 percent, Gordon said, but the developer will pay 5 to 7 percent for EB-5 funding. “You’re really cutting, you know, 30 to 50 percent of your cost of capital, on a rather significant portion of your capital,” he added.
On top of saving money, developers say the program has been crucial during periods like the financial crisis when other funding sources become prohibitively expensive or scarce.
Unsurprisingly, the real estate industry has been one of the EB-5 program’s most ardent defenders. The National Association of Realators and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbied against a bill introduced in 2017 that would have terminated the program.
Such programs aren’t unusual. Seventy countries exchange permanent residency or citizenship for investments or donations, according to Kristin Surak, an associate professor at the London School of Economics who studies so-called golden visa and passport programs worldwide. In some countries, including Malta and Cyprus, the programs represent a significant part of the economy.
Proponents point to the jobs created. Critics say the EB-5 program falls short of its goal to stimulate investment in rural and distressed urban areas. Previous iterations allowed developers to gerrymander maps so that even densely populated and highly employed districts like Hudson Yards qualified for preferable terms. A 2022 law ended that practice and added new incentives to build in rural areas.
Would selling visas work better? Lutnick said on Wednesday that EB-5 projects “were often suspect, they didn’t really work out, there wasn’t any oversight of it.” It’s true that there have been horror stories: Two investors who raised $350 million from foreign investors for a massive development in Vermont, for example, were accused in 2016 of perpetrating the biggest fraud in the state’s history.
But according to a report from the Government Accountability Office that looked at pending petitions in 2021, less than 1 percent were found to be fraudulent or posed national security risks (about 3 percent were investigated). Additional safeguards were added in the 2022 law.
The gold card may have a different problem: A dearth of applicants. Participants in the EB-5 program expect to get their $1 million investment back at some point, whereas Trump’s plan requires a $5 million donation that isn’t returned.
The EB-5 program drew about 7,000 investments between April 1, 2022 to July 31, 2024, according to data compiled by the American Immigrant Investor Alliance. Even if the gold card comes with a tax benefit, why would a substantially larger group of foreigners — Trump said “maybe a million” — be willing to pay the much higher cost?
Many in the industry see Trump’s plan as unworkable. Trump would need congressional approval both to abolish a visa program that was created by law and to allocate visas for a new one. “This is unpredictable,” Khanna said. “No one truly knows where this is going.”
More than Trump’s recent announcement, which lacked specifics, many of the big players in the ecosystem — including the companies that put together the funds, the developers and the lawyers — are focused on what will happen in 2027, when the EB-5 program expires and needs to be renewed by Congress.
They’re betting on compromise. The players in such investments are hoping the gold card becomes an addition rather than a replacement.
The idea may already be breaking through: By Wednesday, Lutnick had changed how he described the gold card plan, saying it would “modify” the EB-5 program, but it was unclear what specifically would change.
— Sarah Kessler
In Case You Missed It
President Trump’s meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine turned into an explosive shouting match on live television, a moment unlike anything we’ve ever seen at the White House. At an Oval Office appearance Friday the Ukrainian president met with Trump to sign a mineral rights deal, when Trump accused Zelensky of being ungrateful and “gambling with World War III.” Zelensky had questioned whether Trump would be able to get President Putin of Russia to honor a peace agreement without security guarantees, saying the Russian leader had broken cease-fire accords in the past. Vice President Vance, sitting on a nearby couch, chastised Zelensky for not showing more appreciation for Trump’s efforts. The U.S. president then issued an ultimatum: “You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out.” The fiery exchange (here’s the video) revealed Trump’s nakedly combative approach to dealmaking. Zelensky left without signing the mineral agreement. Elon Musk, whose Starlink satellite internet service has been vital to Ukraine’s military defenses, seemed to praise Trump on X after the exchange.
Shari Redstone urged her board to find a resolution with President Trump. Redstone, who is trying to sell Paramount, her family business, to David Ellison’s Skydance, directed her board to find a way to resolve Trump’s lawsuit against the company’s CBS News division, DealBook was first to report. The president sued the company last year for $20 billion, accusing the network of deceptively editing an interview with Vice President Kamala Harris to cast her in a more favorable light. Even though legal experts say Trump has a weak case, some Paramount executives feel a settlement would smooth the way with the Trump administration toward greenlighting the company’s Skydance merger.
Apple’s Tim Cook gave a lesson in the art of dealmaking with President Trump. The Apple leader drew praise from Trump for his commitment to invest $500 billion in the United States and create 20,000 more jobs over the next four years. The stakes are high for Apple because its iPhones are primarily made in China, which faces an additional 10 percent tariff on exports. But Cook appeared to take a page out of his playbook from Trump’s first term, when he pledged more U.S. investment and won tariff exemptions. By the way, that $500 billion commitment was probably already earmarked. Expect similarly framed corporate announcements to follow.
The S.E.C. said memecoins aren’t like stocks and bonds. That means you and I can trade them at our own risk and the novelty crypto tokens — including those tied to President Trump and the first lady, Melania Trump — won’t be subject to regulatory oversight. Trump, whose presidential campaign was backed by top crypto executives, has promised less regulation for the industry. Even so, the price of Bitcoin has plunged in recent days, stoking concern about crypto volatility.
Weighing a return to Russia
President Trump and President Putin of Russia marked the third anniversary of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine this week with a similar message: Russia will soon be open for business. Never mind that Russia and the United States remain far apart on the fundamental terms of a peace negotiation, or that Russia is under heavy sanctions by Western countries, or that uncertainty over the region’s future has only grown after yesterday’s Oval Office blow-up.
DealBook spoke with Charles Hecker, a former reporter for The Moscow Times and a geopolitical risk consultant who for decades advised Western companies on expanding their business in Russia, about the prospect of business leaders taking Trump and Putin up on the pitch. (A reminder: most, but hardly all, Western companies left Russia shortly after war in Ukraine broke out.)
Hecker is the author of the book “Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia,” which is set for publication in the United States next week. This interview has been edited for brevity.
The assumption is that Western, and especially American companies, will not return to Russia any time soon. How do you see it playing out?
Inside a number of companies, conversations are already taking place about whether and how to go back to Russia. And those conversations probably preceded this flurry of diplomatic activity between Moscow and Washington. There are also companies that have decided already, resolutely, that they are not going back. What this speaks to is risk appetite. There are clearly companies that have cast iron stomachs and bottomless appetites for risk. Those are the companies that are probably considering going back to Russia most actively.
Who might they be?
These are companies in the energy sector, and more broadly, in the natural resources sector. These are companies that are thoroughly accustomed to doing business in very-high-risk jurisdictions.
For companies with a higher appetite for risk, what kind of negotiated resolutions between the West and Russia would they view as a kind of all-clear?
One of the red lines is sanctions. If part of the resolution of the war on Ukraine is sanctions relief, then there will be companies that see that, essentially, as a signal to go back.
What kind of Russia is waiting for them?
Over the past three years there have been some changes that have taken place that will be very, very difficult to reverse. We all know of the famous headline-grabbing nationalizations and reallocations that took place, like Danone and Carlsberg — really high profile expropriations. There is a new business elite in Russia that is one level below the individuals who have been sanctioned who serve largely at the pleasure of the Kremlin. This new business elite has possession of a great number of very shiny new toys that were previously Western companies. It’s a valid question to ask about whether these new owners are going to want to give their shiny new toys back. And if they do, whether under political pressure or otherwise, what would the cost be?
Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.
We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
Business
Commentary: Trump Media’s financial report revives doubts for investors
So much Trump-related news has appeared lately on the airwaves and in web pixels — what with Iran and Epstein and Minnesota and so on — that inevitably a nugget will fall between the cracks.
That seems to have been the fate of the most recent annual financial report of Trump Media and Technology Group, which covered calendar year 2025 and was issued Friday.
Trump Media, which is 52% owned by Donald Trump and trades on Nasdaq with a ticker symbol based on his initials (DJT), is the holding company for Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social.
The value of TMTG’s brand may diminish if the popularity of President Donald J. Trump were to suffer.
— A risk factor disclosed by Trump Media
The annual financial disclosure has garnered minimal press coverage. That’s a pity, because it makes fascinating reading, though not in a good way.
Here are the top and bottom lines from the 10-k annual report: Trump Media lost $712.1 million last year on revenue of about $3.7 million. That’s quite a bit worse than its performance in 2024, when it lost $409 million on revenue of about $3.6 million. The company attributed most of the flood of red ink to “loss from investments,” of which more in a moment.
Truth Social isn’t an especially strong keystone of this operation. The platform is chiefly an outlet for Trump’s social media ramblings and the occasional official White House statements. But no one has to sign in to Truth Social to see them — they’re almost invariably picked up by the news media or reposted by users on other platforms such as X.
That might explain Truth Social’s relatively scrawny user base. The platform is estimated to have about 2 million active users, according to the analytical firm Search Logistics. By comparison, X has about 450 million monthly active users and Facebook has more than 2.9 billion.
It’s no mystery, then, why TMTG disdains “traditional performance metrics like average revenue per user, ad impressions and pricing, or active user accounts, including monthly and daily active users,” according to its annual report.
Relying on those metrics, which are used to judge TMTG’s social media rivals, “might not align with the best interests of TMTG or its stockholders, as it could lead to short-term decision-making at the expense of long-term innovation and value creation.”
Instead, the company says it should be evaluated based on “its commitment to a robust business plan that includes introducing innovative features, new products, new technologies.” But it also acknowledges that, at its heart, TMTG is a proxy for “the reputation and popularity of President Donald J. Trump.” The company warns that “the value of TMTG’s brand may diminish if the popularity of President Donald J. Trump were to suffer.”
How has that played out in real time? Trump Media notched its highest closing price as a public company, $66.22, on March 27, 2024, the day after its initial public offering. In midday trading Monday, the shares were quoted at $11.08, for a loss of 83% since the IPO.
One can’t quibble with stock market price quotes; nor can one finagle annual profit and loss statements, at least not without receiving questions, and perhaps lawsuit complaints, from attentive investors and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In recent months, TMTG has engaged in a number of baroque financial transactions.
In May, the company announced that it was planning to raise $3.5 billion from institutions to invest in bitcoin, with the money to come from issues of common and preferred shares. The goal was to climb onto the cryptocurrency train, which Trump himself was fueling by, among other things, issuing an executive order promoting the expansion of crypto in the U.S. and denigrating enforcement efforts by the Biden administration as reflecting a “war on cryptocurrency.”
Under Trump, federal regulators have dropped numerous investigations related to cryptocurrencies. Trump has also talked about creating a government crypto strategic reserve, which would entail large government purchases of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; a March 3 announcement on that subject briefly sent bitcoin prices soaring by nearly 20%, though they promptly fell back.
Then there’s TMTG’s relationship with Crypto.com, a Singapore-based crypto “service provider” best known to Angelenos unfamiliar with the crypto world as the firm with naming rights to the Los Angeles arena that hosts the NBA Lakers and Clippers, WNBA Sparks and NHL Kings.
In August, Crypto.com and TMTG announced a deal in which TMTG would pursue a crypto treasury strategy consisting mostly of Cronos tokens, a cryptocurrency sponsored by Crypto.com. The initial infusion would consist of 6.4 billion Cronos valued at $1 billion, or about 15.8 cents per Cronos.
As of Dec. 31, TMTG said in its 10-K, it owned 756.1 million Cronos, acquired at a cost of about $114 million, or 15 cents each. By year’s end, they were worth only about nine cents each, for a paper loss of about $46 million. In trading this week, Cronos was quoted at about 7.6 cents, producing a paper loss for TMTG of about $56.5 million, or roughly half the investment.
The financial maneuvering involved in this trade is a little dizzying. The initial transaction was a 50% stock, 50% cash trade in which Crypto.com bought $50 million in TMTG stock and TMTG bought $105 million in Cronos. Who gained in this deal? It’s almost impossible to say.
Crypto.com did gain, if not purely in cash, then arguably through the Trump administration’s good graces.
On March 27, the SEC formally closed an investigation of the company that it had launched during the Biden administration, when the agency was headed by a known crypto skeptic, Gary Gensler. Trump appointed a crypto-friendly regulator, Paul Atkins, as Gensler’s successor.
It’s reasonable to note that as a business model, crypto treasuries have been in vogue over the last year or so, allowing investors to play the crypto market without all the complexities of actually buying and holding the digital assets by buying shares in treasury companies.
I asked Crypto.com whether the steady decline in Cronos’ price suggested that the hookup with TMTG wasn’t bearing fruit. “The fluctuation in value during this time period is consistent with the entire crypto market, which is typical in a bear market,” company spokeswoman Victoria Davis told me by email.
Davis also asserted that the SEC’s investigation of the company had been closed by Gensler, “not the current administration” (i.e., Trump). That’s misleading, at best. Gensler put the investigation on hold after the 2024 election, when it became clear that Trump was going to be in charge.
Crypto.com’s March 27 announcement of the formal end of the case attributed the action to “the current SEC leadership” and blamed the case on “the previous administration.” I asked Davis to explain the discrepancy but got no reply.
TMTG, like Crypto.com, attributed the decline in Cronos’ value to the secular bear market raging in the entire cryptocurrency space, a reflection of “temporary price swings across the crypto market,” said TMTG spokeswoman Shannon Devine. She said the price decline “will not diminish our enthusiasm for the enormous potential of the [CRONOS] ecosystem.”
Trump’s coziness with crypto companies hasn’t gone unnoticed by Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee, who issued a scathing report on the topic in November. (The White House scoffed at the report, saying in response to the report that Trump “only acts in the best interests of the American public.”)
In mid-December, TMTG launched yet another remaking — this time, plunging into the business of fusion power. The instrument is TAE Technologies, a Foothill Ranch-based company working to develop the technology of nuclear fusion as a clean energy source. According to a Dec. 18 announcement, TMTG and TAE will merge, creating what they say is a $6-billion company.
According to the announcement, TMTG will contribute $200 million to the merged company when the deal closes in mid-2026, and an additional $100 million subsequently. Following the merger, TMTG said last month, it will consider spinning off Truth Social into a new publicly traded company.
These arrangements are murky. TAE is privately held and the value of Truth Social is conjectural at best, so TMTG shareholders could be hard-pressed to assess their gains or losses from the merger and spin-off.
What makes them even murkier is the speculative nature of fusion as an electrical power source. Although numerous companies have leaped into the field — and TAE, which has been backed by Alphabet, the parent of Google, is among the oldest — none has shown the capability of generating electrical power at commercial scale with the elusive technology.
Although some researchers say that fusion could become a technically and economically feasible power source within 10 years, only in 2022 did fusion researchers (at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) achieve the goal of using fusion to produce more energy than is required to sustain a reaction. They were able to do so only for less than a billionth of a second.
Others working on the technology have expressed doubts that fusion could become a viable power source before the 2040s. The technical challenges, including how to convert the energy produced by a fusion reactor into electricity, remain daunting.
All this points to the fundamental question of what TMTG is supposed to be. TMTG’s original mission, according to its own publicity statements, was to build Truth Social into an alternative social media platform “to end Big Tech’s assault on free speech by opening up the Internet.”
Spinning off Truth Social would place that goal on the side. TMTG is on its way too becoming a hodgepodge of crypto, fusion and other investments selected without regard to whether they fit together or are even achievable. The only constant is Trump himself.
If you want to invest in him, TMTG may be the best way to do it. But judging from its latest financial disclosure, that’s not the same as being a good way to do it.
Business
California gas is pricey already. The Iran war could cost you even more
The U.S. attack on Iran is expected to have an unwelcome impact on California drivers — a jump in gas prices that could be felt at the pump in a week or two.
The outbreak of war in the Middle East, which virtually closed a key Persian Gulf shipping lane, spiked the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil by as much as $10, with prices rising as high as $82.37 on Monday before settling down.
The price of the international standard dictates what motorists pay for gas globally, including in California, with every dollar increase translating to 2.5 cents at the pump, said Severin Borenstein, faculty director of the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business.
That would mean drivers could pay at least 20 cents more per gallon, though how much damage the conflict will do to wallets remains to be seen.
“The real issue though is the oil markets are just guessing right now at what is going to happen. It’s a time of extreme volatility,” Borenstein said. “We don’t know whether the war will widen or end quickly, and all of those things will drive the price of crude.”
President Trump has lauded the reduction of nationwide gas prices as a validation of his economic agenda despite worries about a weak job market and concerns of persistent inflation.
The upheaval in the Middle East could be more acutely felt in the state.
Californians already pay far more for gas than the rest of the country, with the average cost of a gallon of regular at $4.66, up 3 cents from a week ago and 30 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. The current nationwide average is about $3 per gallon.
The disruption in international crude markets also comes as refiners are switching to producing California’s summer-blend gas, which is less volatile during the state’s hot summers. The switch can drive up the price of a gallon of gas at least 15 cents.
The prices in California are largely driven by higher taxes and a cleaner, less polluting blend required year-round by regulators to combat pollution — and it’s long been a hot-button issue.
The politics were only exacerbated by recent refinery closures, including the Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington in October and the idling and planned closure of the Valero refinery in Benicia, Calif., which reduced refining capacity in the state by about 18%.
California also has seen a steady reduction in its crude oil production, making it more reliant on international imports of oil and gasoline.
In 2024, only 23.3% of the crude oil refined in the state was pumped in California, with 13% from Alaska and 63% from elsewhere in the world, including about 30% from the Middle East, said Jim Stanley, a spokesperson for the Western States Petroleum Assn.
“We could see a supply crunch and real price volatility” if the Middle East supply is interrupted, he said.
The Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, was virtually closed Monday, according to reports. Though it produces only about 3% of global oil, Iran has considerable sway over energy markets because it controls the strait.
Also, in response to the U.S. attack, Iran has fired a barrage of missiles at neighboring Persian Gulf states. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted Iranian drones targeting one of its refinery complexes.
California Republicans and the California Fuels & Convenience Alliance, a trade group representing fuel marketers, gas station owners and others, have blamed Gov. Gavin Newsom’s policies for driving up the price of gas.
A landmark climate change law calls for California to become carbon neutral by 2045, and Newsom told regulators in 2021 to stop issuing fracking permits and to phase out oil extraction by 2045. He also signed a bill allowing local governments to block construction of oil and gas wells.
However, last year Newsom changed his stance and signed a bill that will allow up to 2,000 new oil wells per year through 2036 in Kern County despite legal challenges by environmental groups. The county produces about three-fourths of the state’s crude oil.
Borenstein said he didn’t expect that the new state oil production would do much to lower gas prices because it is only marginally cheaper than oil imported by ocean tankers.
Stanley said the aim of the law was to support the Kern County oil industry, which was facing pipeline closures without additional supplies to ship to state refineries.
Statewide, the industry supports more than 535,000 jobs, $166 billion in economic activity and $48 billion in local and state taxes, according to a report last year by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.
Bloomberg News and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
Business
Block to cut more than 4,000 jobs amid AI disruption of the workplace
Fintech company Block said Thursday that it’s cutting more than 4,000 workers or nearly half of its workforce as artificial intelligence disrupts the way people work.
The Oakland parent company of payment services Square and Cash App saw its stock surge by more than 23% in after-hours trading after making the layoff announcement.
Jack Dorsey, the co-founder and head of Block, said in a post on social media site X that the company didn’t make the decision because the company is in financial trouble.
“We’re already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company,” he said.
Block is the latest tech company to announce massive cuts as employers push workers to use more AI tools to do more with fewer people. Amazon in January said it was laying off 16,000 people as part of effort to remove layers within the company.
Block has laid off workers in previous years. In 2025, Block said it planned to slash 931 jobs, or 8% of its workforce, citing performance and strategic issues but Dorsey said at the time that the company wasn’t trying to replace workers with AI.
As tech companies embrace AI tools that can code, generate text and do other tasks, worker anxiety about whether their jobs will be automated have heightened.
In his note to employees Dorsey said that he was weighing whether to make cuts gradually throughout months or years but chose to act immediately.
“Repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead,” he told workers. “I’d rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome.”
Dorsey is also the co-founder of Twitter, which was later renamed to X after billionaire Elon Musk purchased the company in 2022.
As of December, Block had 10,205 full-time employees globally, according to the company’s annual report. The company said it plans to reduce its workforce by the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
The company’s gross profit in 2025 reached more than $10 billion, up 17% compared to the previous year.
Dorsey said he plans to address employees in a live video session and noted that their emails and Slack will remain open until Thursday evening so they can say goodbye to colleagues.
“I know doing it this way might feel awkward,” he said. “I’d rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.”
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