Business
Trump’s Cryptocurrency Surges to Become One of the World’s Most Valuable
The Trump family’s new crypto token surged in just two days to become one of the most valuable forms of digital currency in the world, creating the potential for a multibillion-dollar payout to the family but also generating a storm of questions about the conflicts of interest the new venture creates.
President-elect Donald J. Trump announced the launch of the new token, $Trump, on Friday night as hundreds gathered for a crypto-inspired inauguration ball not far from the White House.
The venture won praise by some as a sign of how digital currencies are now going mainstream in the United States.
But economists and even some longtime crypto investors said the new digital coin, known as a memecoin, might also emerge as a landmark moment in the speculative history of crypto trading and the potential dangers it poses to the financial system. Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency tied to an online joke or a celebrity mascot.
“If people want to gamble, I don’t really care,” said Lee Reiners, a former Federal Reserve economist who is now a lecturer for a center studying global economic markets at Duke University. “What I care about is when this crypto bubble bursts — and it will burst — it will end up impacting people across the economy even if they don’t have direct investment in crypto. And this new coin is making it worse.”
Eric Trump, one of Mr. Trump’s sons, who helped launch the token, declined to comment on Sunday.
At least on paper, the Trump tokens in the market as of Sunday late afternoon had a total trading value of nearly $13 billion, and a total of $29 billion worth of trades had taken place in just two days. That calculation is based on the nearly $64 value of each of the 200 million tokens issued, according to CoinGecko, an industry data tracker.
This suggests, as of Sunday, that Mr. Trump’s coin was the 19th most valuable form of cryptocurrency in the world, the CoinGecko tally indicated.
The Trump affiliates appear to control another 800 million tokens that, at least hypothetically, could be worth as much as $51 billion — a total that would make Mr. Trump one of the richest people in the world.
Before the coin started trading, Forbes had listed Mr. Trump’s net worth as $6.7 billion, most of that coming from Trump Media and Technology Group, another speculative venture the Trump family helped start, which runs the money-losing social media platform Truth Social.
The Trump family late on Sunday moved to add a second new crypto token, this one called $Melania, with Mr. Trump and Melania, his wife, both promoting it on Truth Social, just as Mr. Trump was about to start a rally in Washington celebrating his inauguration.
“The official Melania Meme is live!” the social media posting said.
That move then coincided with a dive in the value of Mr. Trump’s own token, dropping to as low as $41, before starting to rise again, as doubts appeared to emerge over just how valuable these new tokens would actually be. Mr. Trump did not appear to be deterred.
“Bitcoin has shattered one record after another,” Mr. Trump said at his rally, referring to another form of cryptocurrency. He added during his remarks that “these are all investments that are only being made because we won the election.”
But Mr. Trump’s newfound crypto wealth would likely vaporize if he moved to sell his trove of coins. New cryptocurrencies often shoot up in price, making traders billionaires on paper, only to collapse when the coins’ holders start selling.
That is especially true of memecoins, which are prone to rapid swings in price as their internet popularity fluctuates. Prices can also vary across platforms, making it difficult to pin down a coin’s actual value. In 2021, one of the first memecoins, a dog-based digital currency called Dogecoin, minted millionaires overnight, only to lose much of its value just as quickly.
The launch of the Trump memecoin caught many of the industry’s power brokers off guard.
When the president-elect announced the coin on Friday night, hundreds of the most influential executives in the industry were drinking cocktails and singing along to Snoop Dogg at an inauguration party in Washington dubbed the Crypto Ball. (One executive who attended the ball said he was “annoyed” that trading in the coin had begun while the industry’s leaders “weren’t paying attention,” making it difficult for them to profit.)
Nonetheless, some traders have already cashed in.
Within a minute of the coin’s launch, a crypto trader had accumulated a $1 million position, according to an analysis of public transaction data by the crypto data firm Bubblemaps, which posted its findings on social media.
The coin’s price surged, and the trader’s account soon sold off holdings worth $20 million. The analysis prompted speculation on social media about whether an insider with advance knowledge of the coin’s launch had been able to make quick profits. (Bubblemaps did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)
Conor Grogan, a director at Coinbase, one of the largest trading platforms in the United States, estimated in a social media post that as of Saturday, the Trump team had made $58 million in fees from all of the $Trump sales — even without selling its own reserve of tokens to the open marketplace.
It also appears that the Trump team may be transferring some of its tokens onto an overseas trading platform called Bybit, which is not allowed to execute trades in the United States, Mr. Grogan noted. Bybit has recently been the focus of enforcement actions by international cryptocurrency regulators.
The Trump coin’s launch immediately created new opportunities for executives, crypto traders and even major companies to curry favor with the Trump administration.
Anyone can spin up a memecoin for a few dollars, and the vast majority of the tokens are not available to buy and sell on mainstream digital currency marketplaces, which often focus on larger, more established coins. But within hours of Mr. Trump’s announcement, the crypto exchange Kraken began offering the new coin, and Coinbase, the largest exchange in the United States, said it would also list it.
Coinbase and Kraken are fighting lawsuits filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which conducted a wide-ranging crackdown on crypto firms during the Biden administration. The companies are among a large group of crypto firms that stand to benefit from the more relaxed approach to tech regulation that Mr. Trump promised on the campaign trail.
A onetime crypto skeptic, Mr. Trump embraced the digital currency industry last year, giving a speech at a major industry conference in which he promised to turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.”
After winning the election, Mr. Trump made a series of moves that appear poised to benefit the crypto industry. He chose someone to lead the S.E.C. who has a track record of working closely with crypto companies, and tapped the venture capitalist David Sacks, a digital currency enthusiast, to oversee crypto and artificial intelligence policy for his administration.
At the Crypto Ball, Mr. Sacks announced from the stage that “the reign of terror against crypto is over, and the beginning of innovation in America for crypto has just begun,” according to a video posted on social media by Eric Trump.
The president-elect’s family was personally invested in the crypto market even before the memecoin launched. In September, he and his sons helped start a crypto business, World Liberty Financial, that also has a digital coin associated with it, WLFI.
World Liberty is not directly owned by the Trumps. But Mr. Trump is a promoter of the venture, and he receives a cut of the profits from token sales.
For the most part, the crypto industry has responded enthusiastically to Mr. Trump’s crypto ventures. But some executives expressed concern this weekend that the memecoin launch would end up hurting amateur traders.
A popular crypto podcaster called it a “gratuitous cash grab” that would be “bad for humanity.” Erik Voorhees, a prominent Bitcoin investor, wrote on social media that the memecoin was “stupid and embarrassing.”
Still the Trump family’s embrace of cryptocurrencies shows no sign of slowing down.
“It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING!” Mr. Trump wrote on Friday as he announced the birth of the new crypto token. “Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW.”
Business
Five major banks offering mortgage relief in fire-ravaged L.A. region areas, Newsom announces
Five major banks are offering homeowners up to three months of mortgage payment relief in areas devastated by the Southern California wildfires, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Saturday.
In a statement, Newsom’s office said the banks will have a streamlined process that will not require submitting forms or documents and when the forbearance period ends, there will not be an immediate repayment or late fees. The 90-day pause on mortgage payments for homes that were destroyed or damaged by the fires will not be reported to credit agencies, Newsom’s office said.
“After so much trauma, we hope this deal will provide thousands of survivors a measure of relief,” Newsom said in a statement. “These financial protections will enable residents to concentrate on taking care of their immediate needs rather than worrying about paying their mortgage bills.”
The participating banks are Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo. Many banks already have policies allowing up to three additional months of payment forbearance. To participate, homeowners must contact their mortgage provider. The ZIP codes included in the mortgage relief program are: 90019, 90041, 90049, 90066, 90265, 90272, 90290, 90402, 91001,91104, 91106, 91107 and 93536, according to Newsom’s office.
Additional commitments to help those affected by the fires will be announced in the coming days, Newsom’s office said.
As of Saturday, the Palisades and Eaton fires have burned more than 11,000 structures and killed at least 27 people. Following a reprieve this weekend from dangerous winds, another round of fire weather could arrive next week, forecasters said.
Additional executive orders issued by Newsom postponed the tax filing deadline for individuals in Los Angeles County to Oct. 15. Another executive order allows homeowners to wait until April 2026 to file this year’s property taxes without penalty. Longer deferrals of up to four years are also available by applying to the Los Angeles County Treasurer and Tax Collector.
Newsom’s order to protect fire victims from predatory land speculators makes unsolicited and undervalued offers a misdemeanor offense for three months. Violations can be reported to the attorney general’s office at oag.ca.gov/report.
“As families mourn, the last thing they need is greedy speculators taking advantage of their pain,” Newsom said in a statement Tuesday. “I have heard first-hand from community members and victims who have received unsolicited and predatory offers from speculators offering cash far below market value — some while their homes were burning.”
Such offers spurred the advocacy group SGV Progressive Alliance to stage a protest Saturday afternoon to send a message to developers that Altadena is not for sale, said Melissa Michelson.
“The message is for the community to stand strong, not sell your property to the first buyer that comes your way,” Michelson said. “The concern is the displacement of the neighborhood and the neighbors who’ve been there for so long. We don’t want the neighborhoods to change.”
Business
The Federal Work Force Grew Briskly Under Biden. It’s Still Historically Low.
When it comes to the federal payroll, two seemingly contradictory things are true.
One, the Biden administration went on a hiring spree that expanded the government work force at the fastest pace since the 1980s. And two, it remains near a record low as a share of overall employment.
In the four years separating President-elect Donald J. Trump’s two terms, the federal civilian head count has risen by about 4.4 percent, according to the Labor Department, to just over three million, including the Postal Service.
But that’s a much slower pace than private payrolls have grown over the past four years. And it leaves the federal government at 1.9 percent of total employment, down from more than 3 percent in the 1980s.
The incoming administration promises to erase whole sections of the federal bureaucracy: Vivek Ramaswamy, co-chair of what Mr. Trump is calling the Department of Government Efficiency, has said 75 percent of the work force could go, in pursuit of $2 trillion in cuts. But it will be a challenge to find cuts without depleting services.
“When we’re looking at the numbers of the federal work force, it’s still about the same size as it was in the 1960s,” said Max Stier, president of the Partnership for Public Service, a think tank. “The narrative out there is the federal government work force is growing topsy-turvy, and the reality is that it’s actually shrinking.”
Staffing expanded during Mr. Trump’s first term as well, by about 2.9 percent. But some agencies contracted significantly, and had bounced back as of March 2024, the latest data published by the Office of Personnel Management show.
The State Department, which had shrunk through attrition and a hiring freeze imposed by former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, gained nearly 20 percent from 2020 to early 2024, or about 2,300 workers, not including the Foreign Service. (Some of the gain reflected passport processors, whose numbers had fallen when few people traveled overseas during the pandemic.) The U.S. Agency for International Development, which administers public health and humanitarian grants overseas, grew by 23 percent, to 4,675. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, part of the Department of Homeland Security, rebounded to 22,500, the highest level in its history, after a hiring freeze and funding shortfalls.
Other agencies with rising head counts were driven by some of President Biden’s legislative initiatives — especially the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act. Recruiters streamlined hiring procedures to bring on more than 9,000 people, distributed across the agencies handling parts of the laws.
The Treasury Department also expanded as the Internal Revenue Service received an $80 billion infusion — later cut to $40 billion — that allowed it to top 100,000 employees, the highest level since 1997.
But the biggest increase came at the largest agency: the Department of Veterans Affairs, which stands at more than 486,000 employees, up nearly 16 percent since 2020. The growth was driven by the PACT Act, a law passed in 2022 that authorized $797 billion to cover more veterans exposed to toxic substances during their military service.
Veterans Affairs, together with civilian employees of the Pentagon and the military branches, accounts for 1.25 million federal workers. That’s 55 percent of the total, not counting intelligence agencies or the Postal Service. The active-duty military adds nearly 1.4 million, a tick down from 2020.
“You can’t get to $2 trillion in cuts and 75 percent of the federal work force if you’re not going to cut D.O.D.,” said Randy Erwin, national president of the National Federation of Federal Employees, referring to the Department of Defense. “It’s too big — it’s impossible to get to those numbers.”
Hiring at veterans’ hospitals and at field offices to support infrastructure projects has meant that all of the federal staffing growth has happened outside the Beltway. The number of federal workers in the Washington metropolitan area has been flat since 2020, and stands at about 12 percent of the total.
Some of that arises from the trend toward remote work, which allowed agencies to hire specialized talent elsewhere in the country. Although pay varies by locality, for each occupation federal workers make nearly 25 percent less than their private-sector counterparts, according to the Federal Salary Council.
“We are told by hiring managers in the District that particularly for tech occupations, they have a real hard time attracting workers,” said Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, in Northern Virginia. “It’s because a lot of folks are not really keen to move to our area, with its cost of living, for a federal wage.”
Of course, the size of the federal government is measured by more than its payroll. As policymakers have tried to keep the head count low, the number of people doing federal work as employees of federal contractors has ballooned. No one knows how many, but a Brookings Institution scholar estimated the contracted work force at five million in 2020.
Business
Opinion: Biden delivered a new 'Roaring '20s.' Watch Trump try to take the credit.
Poor Donald Trump. Twice elected president only to have to clean up the economic messes left to him by Democrats.
In 2016, he groused about inheriting “a disaster” from Barack Obama. On Thursday, just four days before his second inauguration, he sent out a fundraising email claiming for the gazillionth time, “During my first term, we made the economy stronger than anyone ever thought possible. And then, Joe Biden came in and destroyed it.”
Except that — no surprise — neither Trump claim is true.
Opinion Columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
In fact, it was Obama and Biden who were bequeathed messes, from former Republican presidents George W. Bush and Trump himself. Obama took office after what Ben Bernanke, then the Federal Reserve chair, called “the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression.” And four years ago, Biden confronted a nation mired in a pandemic and economic distress exacerbated by Trump’s response. Even Trump’s pre-pandemic economy, as good as it was, was far from “the greatest economy in the history of the world,” as he still contends. By various metrics, it was either no better or not as good as under Obama.
As for the handoff in 2017: “Trump inherits Obama boom,” said one headline ahead of his inauguration. And now he’s inheriting even better. “Biden is leaving a stellar economy,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, wrote as 2024 ended.
Zandi expanded in October: “The economy is at full-employment, no more and no less. Wage growth is strong, and given big productivity gains, it is consistent with low and stable inflation. One couldn’t paint a prettier picture of the job market and broader economy.” In a letter to clients on Friday, UBS Financial Services declared this a new “Roaring ‘20s.”
And here’s another expert take that might come in handy while listening to Trump’s inaugural address Monday, should he resort to talk of “American carnage” as he did four years ago. Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and Stephen Henriques, a fellow there, recently wrote, “As Trump bellows to crowds, ‘Are you better off economically than you were four years ago?’, the answer should be a loud YES!”
The problem for Biden, and for his replacement on Democrats’ losing 2024 ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris, many voters’ answer to that question was a loud “NO!”
For one thing, the pain of pandemic-spawned high inflation lingers in what Americans pay for groceries, goods and services. And yet, it’s worth establishing the facts as a baseline to counter what are sure to be Trump’s claims that he not only revived a destroyed economy but topped his own (nonexistent) world record.
The latest good news came Friday, when the International Monetary Fund forecast that the U.S. economy would grow faster this year than recently projected, given gains in employment and investment. The United States is buoying the global economy. “The big story is the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.
But the fund’s forecast also echoed U.S. economists’ concerns that Trump’s agenda — more deficit-financed tax cuts, wholesale deregulation, across-the-board tariffs, immigration crackdowns and challenges to the Fed’s independence — could reignite inflation and add to the nation’s already unsustainable debt load.
In other words, Trump could break what’s not broken.
Inflation peaked at 9% at the midterm of the Biden administration, and as much as any issue, that helped elect Trump. It’s largely subsided, and good thing: After winning, Trump fessed up that, contrary to his campaign boasts, there’s not much he could do about inflation. “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he told Time magazine.
What’s worse is that his proposed tariffs — “my favorite word,” says Trump — could raise costs for a typical family about $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. And U.S. trading partners could raise those costs even more if they retaliate with tariffs on American products: “Of course we will,” Canada’s foreign affairs minister, Melanie Joly, told CNN on Thursday.
Economic growth was 3.1% on an annual basis in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported, making 2024 “yet another shocker year in which the U.S. economy surprised to the upside,” as Axios put it. Last month the Fed cut interest rates for the third straight meeting, but indicated fewer reductions ahead amid the Trump-generated uncertainty over what’s coming. The unemployment rate is at 4.1%; it was 6.4% when Trump left office. Job growth in Biden’s final full month of December was a higher-than-expected 256,000 positions, and job openings exceeded the number of unemployed job seekers. In Trump’s first three years as president, before the pandemic, the number of U.S. jobs increased by nearly 6.7 million; Biden’s four-year total is nearly 17 million. And wage growth, though stymied initially by inflation, now is greater than under Trump.
For all Trump’s talk of “drill, baby, drill,” energy production already is at a record high, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The number of Americans without health insurance is at an all-time low, though Republicans aren’t likely to renew the tax credits that helped make the reduction possible.
Biden used his farewell speech Wednesday for a pre-buttal to Trump’s inevitable attempts to usurp credit for good times — assuming they remain good. The outgoing president hailed the post-pandemic revival on his watch and suggested that the laws he got passed for infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductor investments would keep delivering: “The seeds are planted, and they’ll grow and they’ll bloom for decades to come.”
Zandi, the Moody’s economist, expects the United States economy to continue to lead the world: “Of course, this assumes there will be no policy errors going forward.” And then he added: “Hmmm…”
@jackiekcalmes
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