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Column: Elon Musk's dumbest idea is to send human colonists to Mars

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Column: Elon Musk's dumbest idea is to send human colonists to Mars

The image of Elon Musk that may be dominating people’s mindspace at the moment is of his prancing about joyously — and, yes, a tad weirdly — behind Donald Trump on the podium during the latter’s Oct. 5 rally in Butler, Pa.

But how many people noticed the clue to Musk’s worldview on display at the event? For visible under his jacket was a T-shirt bearing the legend, “Occupy Mars.”

That’s a pointer to one of Musk’s most dearly held goals, which is to populate Mars with humans, transported to the Red Planet presumably by Musk’s rocketship company SpaceX. Musk has been airing this idea for years, even a decade or more. His mantra, as he tweeted as recently as a few weeks ago, is that “becoming multiplanetary is critical to ensuring the long-term survival of humanity and all life as we know it.”

Outer space seems designed to kill us.

— Scientific American

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Musk brings up the idea of colonizing Mars so often that it can properly be regarded as a whim of iron. It’s a whim because he plainly hasn’t pondered soberly the obstacles in the way.

The technical challenges of sending a spacecraft to Mars, the distance to which from Earth averages about 140 million miles, are plainly the least difficult, since we’ve already done it: NASA landed the robotic rovers Spirit and Opportunity on Mars in January 2004.

Spirit functioned for five years, sending telemetry back to Earth from its five-mile range; Opportunity ranged over 28 miles of the Martian landscape for an amazing 15 years (its fascinating and endearing life story is told by “Good Night Oppy,” a documentary streaming on Amazon Prime).

All the other challenges are harder, and many are not amenable to human ingenuity at this stage. They’re financial, biological and psychological — and also technical, when the question is not how to get to Mars but how humans can function and survive once we’re there, much less establish a permanent presence.

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Musk’s timeline for colonizing Mars has shifted constantly since he began bringing it up. Last month he announced that the first Mars-bound Starships would launch (unmanned) in two years, when Mars and Earth come to their nearest approach, as they do every 26 months or so.

If the landings succeed, the first crewed missions would take place two years later. Further flights, he said, would fulfill the goal of building a “self-sustaining city in about 20 years.”

Yet he also has talked about sending 1 million human colonists for that self-sustaining city in Mars by 2050, a mere 24 years after the first manned touchdown. In 2020 he posited building a fleet of 100 Starships every year for 10 years, parking them and their passengers in Earth orbit to await the next Earth-Mars near approach.

Such pronouncements have often elicited credulous reactions from Musk’s interviewers. They should know by now, however, that taking them at face value is the wrong way to bet.

Musk is notorious for the unreliability of his timing and engineering forecasts. While his words are taken as gospel by his fan base, many in the automotive and high-tech communities have learned from bitter experience not to trust them. It’s proper to ask whether he has ever met a self-imposed deadline for bringing out a new product or feature or fulfilled his claims for their capabilities.

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The freshest example was his Oct. 10 unveiling of prototypical self-driving taxis and vans amid claims that his EV company Tesla would have fully autonomous vehicles on the road next year. Tesla shares fell nearly 9% the next day, thanks to world-weary investors who had heard such overcooked claims from him before. (A prototype humanoid robot introduced at the same event and implied to operate autonomously was later revealed to be human-assisted.)

If Musk can’t meet deadlines a few years off, then, why would anyone buy projections dated a quarter-century into the future?

Fancies about interplanetary travel may have their sedulous followers, but skepticism about Musk’s Martian fantasy have been mounting. Last month, the Wall Street Journal did the math on the 26-month cycle in which the Earth and Mars approach each other close enough to make travel between them practical, and reported that Musk’s timeline for Mars settlement was unlikely within his lifetime. (He’s 53.)

As for the other obstacles, they’re legion. One is the question of who would pay for the project. As rich as he is — he is often described as the richest or second-richest person on Earth, with a fortune estimated at $195 billion — he doesn’t have the resources to go it alone.

Indeed, without its billions of dollars in U.S. government contracts, SpaceX would be going nowhere fast, even in Earth orbit. But whether the U.S. would have the political will or fiscal capacity to mount a project estimated to cost $1 quadrillion (that’s 1,000 trillions) is doubtful in the extreme even if spread out over several decades.

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Space aficionados often compare the drive to explore other worlds to the impulse that sent humans on voyages around the world, depicting our forebears’ curiosity about our own planet as an innate curiosity that defines us as an alpha species. It’s comforting to think of ourselves that way, but more than a little pompous.

The truth is that the chief impulse that sent Europeans around the world was commercial. The Spanish came to the New World in search of gold, Russians for pelts, others for spices, raw materials, fishing grounds, etc., etc. They spent fortunes in these efforts, but they were willing to invest on the expectation of a healthy financial return.

Human interplanetary exploration will be more dangerous and more costly, especially if robots can do the work, and the lack of a discernible economic return a greater obstacle. “We haven’t even colonized the Sahara Desert, the bottom of the oceans or the moon, because it makes no economic sense,” the physician Danielle Teller observed nearly a decade ago. “It would be far, far easier and cheaper to ‘terraform’ the deserts on our own planet than to terraform Mars. Yet we can’t afford it.”

NASA estimates the length of a voyage to Mars as at least nine months, during which the passengers would be bombarded by radiation and their bodies warped by weightlessness and by Martian gravity, which is 38% that of Earth. It may not be a survivable journey.

“Outer space seems designed to kill us,” Scientific American observed last year. “Humans evolved for and adapted to conditions on Earth. Move us off our planet, and we start to fail — physically and psychologically. The cancer risk from cosmic rays and the problems that human bodies experience in microgravity could be deal-breakers.”

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Astronauts on the International Space Station, where the stays have typically been six months or less (a few record breakers have approached or exceeded one year), were known to have experienced weightlessness-associated visual impairments due to changes in the eye that were “not fully reversible upon return to Earth,” according to a 2018 study.

What would the colonists find upon arrival?

They would encounter a barren landscape without water or breathable atmosphere, bathed in deadly solar and galactic radiation from which Earthbound humans are protected by our planet’s atmosphere and magnetic field. Food, water and other resources would have to be shipped from home, at distances that make the supply frighteningly undependable. They would have to live underground, adding to psychological disorientation compounded by their sheer remoteness; they would be the first humans who were living beyond a view of Earth itself.

Mars is more inhospitable to human occupation than the most punishing terrestrial environments, such as Antarctica and the remote desert. Its average surface temperature is minus 85 degrees, and can fall as low as minus 225 degrees.

Then there are the psychological pressures of underground life hopelessly far from home. An oft-mentioned cautionary tale is the experience of Biosphere 2, in which eight volunteers — four men and four women — were sealed in a futuristic glass structure in Arizona from 1991 to 1993 as an experiment in remote self-sustained living.

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They raised crops and domestic animals for food and enjoyed their lifestyle, until “the human element” intervened, as one of the subjects wrote later. “We contracted a syndrome psychologists call irrational antagonism. That is, we split into two groups of four. A power struggle over the project’s direction made things much worse.” Their oxygen supply dwindled, producing a syndrome resembling altitude sickness, due to a miscalculation about photosynthesis.

They had encountered an age-old phenomenon common in insular communities cut off from home. The leader of the 19th century California utopian community Kaweah put it into words: His people “divided into factions, and fractions of factions,” he wrote. “Otherwise good people seem to take a delight in finding flaws in their neighbors.”

It may be that technological advances will eventually overcome these obstacles. But it’s also true that human ingenuity already has produced a solution to some of the most pressing: robots. For what Spirit and Opportunity proved is that there’s little of value that humans can do in deep space that robots can’t do as well, or better.

The ultimate question about Musk’s project is why? His vision seems to have been formed at the age when adolescents become enthralled by science fiction movies set in faraway galaxies — which isn’t to say that they can remain entertaining for adults, too.

But for him, reality is a distraction. For less than the stupendous cost of colonizing Mars, humanity could address the issues that Musk feels will make the Earth uninhabitable, such as global warming. Leaving an Earth warmer by 2 degrees centigrade for Mars “would be like leaving a messy room so you can live in a toxic waste dump,” Kelly and Zach Weinersmith wrote in their 2023 book, “A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?”

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Good question. Musk plainly hasn’t thought it through, at least not enough to avoid dismissing the challenges with hand-waving. But we can. Our imperative is to fix the home we live in before setting forth to ruin another one.

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Walmart’s EV chargers are coming to California with discounts for members

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Walmart’s EV chargers are coming to California with discounts for members

Walmart is rapidly expanding its network of electric vehicle chargers designed for customers to use while they shop.

The network could help fill gaps in EV infrastructure in states with greater need for chargers. Walmart, which has more than 5,000 locations in the U.S. and hundreds in California, says more than 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of one of its stores.

The chargers also offer an incentive for customers to choose Walmart — Walmart Plus members will receive a 10% discount off an average price of $0.46 per kilowatt-hour of energy at the company’s chargers.

Walmart chargers are already available at more than 75 locations in 17 states, with Texas boasting the most charging stations, followed by Florida and Arizona.

Matthew Nelson, Walmart’s director of energy policy, said last week on LinkedIn that the network will soon reach 29 states, including California.

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“We are delivering on the promise of affordable, reliable and convenient charging,” Nelson said in his post.

According to Walmart’s website, six charging stations are coming to California soon, though the company did not offer a specific timeline.

The chargers will be installed at stores in Antelope, Brea, Fresno, Stockton, Suisun City and Vallejo.

Most charging sites in California will include eight to 16 fast-charging stalls, said Walmart spokesperson Kelsey Bohl.

The company first announced plans in April 2023 to install its own EV chargers at Walmart and Sam’s Club stores, with a goal of installing thousands of chargers by 2030. Partnering with ABB E-Mobility and Alpitronic, it added 25 new charging sites this past May and six more in June.

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“Walmart is building a leading retail-integrated EV fast-charging network, focused on delivering an affordable, reliable and convenient charging experience where customers already shop,” Bohl said in an emailed statement. “Customers can charge while they shop, access stations through the Walmart app they already use, and benefit from affordable pricing.”

The charging stations already available include 612 individual charging stalls using 400-kilowatt chargers. Each stall has a dual charging cord with both Combined Charging System and North American Charging Standard connectors. The standard connectors, designed by Tesla, are smaller and lighter than the combined systems.

The primary way to pay for the chargers is through the Walmart app, but the company is also experimenting with built-in credit card readers to allow those without the app to use the stations.

Customers can check charger availability on the Walmart app. The company said the chargers will be available 24 hours a day.

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Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police

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Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police

Robotaxis could be turning into robocops.

A self-driving Waymo reported two teens to San Mateo, Calif., police on Monday after they were found drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns in the back of the vehicle.

According to a social media post from the San Mateo Police Department, officers detained two 15-year-olds after the Waymo they were riding in contacted the department and stopped in a parking lot until law enforcement arrived.

“Parents do you know where your teens are?” the San Mateo Police Department wrote on Facebook following the incident. “Waymo does!”

Officers removed both teens from the vehicle and determined they were using toy guns to shoot Orbeez out the windows. Orbeez are small, water-absorbing beads sold at toy stores.

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“Toy guns, water guns, and BB guns all pose real dangers, especially to an untrained eye,” the Police Department said. “The simple handling of them can cause fear in [passersby].” “

A video posted on Facebook shows at least five officers and a police dog responding to the scene and approaching the Waymo with their weapons raised.

Waymo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Waymo vehicles have internal cameras and microphones that may be used in an emergency or to “promote safety and security,” according to Waymo’s online support page.

The cameras are also used to ensure the vehicles are clean and to help find lost items, according to the support page.

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The company said it does not use facial recognition or other biometric identification technologies to identify individuals.

“In more urgent circumstances, support may access live video during a trip,” the Waymo page said.

The San Mateo Police Department’s Facebook post has garnered nearly 60 comments, with one user accusing Waymo of “snitching.”

“At least they got a designated driver?!” one user commented.

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Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination

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Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination

At the Supreme Court, the unfounded fear of boys masquerading as girls in youth sports rolled the clock back on gender equality.

On the surface, the Supreme Court’s June 30 opinion upholding state laws barring transgender girls from women’s and girl’s sports teams looks like a victory for women’s rights.

The 6-3 opinion by Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh certainly presents itself that way. “Females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance,” Kavanaugh wrote. “Therefore, in contact sports, forcing female athletes to compete against males can create significant safety risks.” He also asserted that “forcing female athletes to compete against males can undermine competitive fairness.”

The ruling applied to prohibitions enacted in Idaho and West Virginia against “biological” males’ participation on women’s teams in public schools. Federal judges in both states overturned the bans. The Supreme Court majority restored them. The ruling essentially upholds similar bans enacted in 25 other states.

There was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let alone any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.

— Justice Sonia Sotomayor, demolishing the Supreme Court’s argument in favor of banning transgender girls from girl’s sports

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Kavanaugh, like Donald Trump and others in the anti-transgender camp, maintained that one’s gender is an immutable fact of life, established even before birth.

Anything else, Trump stated in an executive order he issued on inauguration day 2025, could only be the product of “gender ideology extremism.” The U.S., his order stated, recognizes “two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.” That’s a “biological truth,” he declared.

In his own version of this overconfident and factually insupportable conclusion, Kavanaugh wrote: “As all agree, females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance.”

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Science recognizes that some people are “born with sex traits that don’t fit into typical male or female patterns,” to cite a discussion on the Cleveland Clinic web page on the topic “intersex.” The condition “may involve chromosomes, hormones, reproductive organs or genitals.”

From a psychological standpoint, medical science recognizes “gender dysphoria” as a real condition often requiring counseling and medical intervention such as the use of puberty blockers and hormones to stave off the development of secondary sex characteristics until the condition can be resolved.

No one disputes that there are physical differences between the sexes. Few would dispute that on average or even at the median, males may be bigger and more powerful than females, or that in certain contact sports the difference may be telling and on occasion dangerous.

But that’s not the same as asserting that the physical differences between males and females invariably mean that men will invariably prevail over women in all competitions or that their participation will endanger women.

The International Olympic Committee — in a policy statement Kavanaugh cited incompletely — says that in “most running and swimming events,” males have a 10% to 12% advantage over women. That’s a range that would accommodate the full spectrum of outcomes — transgender females win, cisfemales win, they tie. (The “cis” prefix denotes those living consistent with their birth gender.)

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West Virginia and Idaho addressed this ambiguity by banning transgender women from all girls’ teams. So under their rules transgender girls can’t play football or soccer with cisgirls. But what’s the argument in favor of banning them from the 100-yard dash, or cross-country track, or diving, or archery?

But something else is going on here. The Supreme Court’s ruling was almost preordained, given the years-long campaign by conservatives to demonize transgender individuals as if they’re members of an alien species.

It will be recalled that during his presidential campaign, Trump spun a despicable fantasy in which children were kidnapped in school and secretly subjected to sex-change operations.

Trump’s executive order wiped out policies aimed at protecting transgender adults from discrimination. He moved to outlaw gender-affirming medical therapies for anyone under 19 by cutting off federal funding for healthcare institutions that provide such care.

He banned transgender individuals from serving in the military and ordered federal prison officials to move transgender inmates into the general populations consistent with their birth genders, which exposes them to physical assault. (Federal Judge Royce Lamberth of Washington, D.C., has blocked the government from transferring three transgender women into the male prison population or terminating their hormone treatments.)

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I wrote during Trump’s first term, when his anti-transgender policies were still gestating, that the goal was to show that “one can target any community, as long as it doesn’t have a strong political voice or political power. These are the actions of bullies and cowards, pretending to be strong.”

Last year, the Supreme Court struck its first blow against transgender rights by upholding a Tennessee law banning transgender care, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for minors. Similar laws have been enacted in 25 other states. The majority in that ruling by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. was identical to the one in the June 30 ruling — Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.

Who are the targets of this ideological campaign? They number only about 1.6 million U.S. adults, or one-half of 1% of the U.S. population. About 300,000 adolescents ages 13 to 17, or 1.4%, identify as transgender, according to a study by UCLA School of Law.

In West Virginia, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor observed in her dissenting opinion, “there was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let along any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.”

In endorsing the flat bans directed at transgender women in Idaho and West Virginia, Kavanaugh argued that any attempt to implement case-by-case judgments of students’ requests to join sports teams inconsistent with their biological gender would create “an enormous practical and administrability problem.”

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Is that so? That wasn’t the case in Maine, where the annual K-12 population is more than 170,000. There, a committee was charged with determining whether a student’s participation in a sport consistent with their gender identity but inconsistent with their biological sex would “result in an unfair athletic advantage” or present a risk of injury to others. The committee held 56 hearings from 2013 through 2021, or an average of seven per year. During the entire time span, only four involved transgender girls. (The outcome of those hearings couldn’t be learned.)

It was Maine’s policy, one might recall, that provoked a confrontation between Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills at the White House last year, when Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the state unless it barred transgender students from competing on women’s sports teams. “We’ll see you in court,” Mills snapped.

Whether the Idaho and West Virginia laws genuinely protect girls from unfair competition is questionable. (The Idaho law is styled the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.”) In practice, the laws may subject women in public schools to “invasive sex verification procedures,” as educational expert George Theoharis of Syracuse University wrote after the court ruling.

They’re also based on a retrograde view of women as fragile creatures needing men’s protection, Theoharis wrote — “the same logic that has historically been used to justify excluding women from making their own healthcare decisions and girls from rigorous math and science; that physically demanding work is simply beyond them.” (There don’t appear to be any state laws barring transgender women from competing in men’s sports.)

Becky Pepper-Jackson, the plaintiff in the West Virginia case, in which she is identified only as B.P.J., is the only transgender girl who sought to join girl’s teams — track and cross-country — in the state. That was in 2021, just after West Virginia passed its law and she was about to enter sixth grade. She didn’t appear to pose any competitive risk to others on the track and cross-country teams she applied to join — her lawyers told the Supreme Court that on those no-cut teams, she “came in near the back.”

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Anyway, she had not gone through male puberty, which theoretically might have endowed her with a competitive advantage, because she had been taking puberty blockers and female hormones.

Thanks to the court’s ruling, Sotomayor observed in a dissent joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, West Virginia can deny Becky access to school sports “because it thinks they have an inherent athletic advantage, even if the facts show that they do not.”

B.P.J., Sotomayor wrote, “cannot practice on girls’ teams, even if she would not take anyone’s spot in an eventual competition, even if everyone who tries out for the team makes it, and even if having the chance to participate could aid immensely in treating B. P. J.’s gender dysphoria.”

So whose interest was really protected by the Supreme Court?

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