Column: Elon Musk is walking away from his Twitter deal, just as you knew he would

Elon Musk late Friday proved that it’s a mistake to consider him as unpredictable. In a transfer that everybody from buyers to informal observers has been predicting for a lot of weeks, he formally bailed out of his $44-billion deal to purchase Twitter.

Musk’s acknowledged rationale for abandoning the deal, as set forth in a letter from his attorneys to Twitter, is unnecessary. It’s all based mostly on his purported supposition that the situation of Twitter’s enterprise is worse than the corporate has let on, however he presents no proof to assist his claims.

The phrase “seems” is compelled to hold the main burden of his assertions. Twitter, he says within the letter, “seems to have made false and deceptive representations” someway designed to coax him into signing a merger settlement on April 25. The merger settlement, he contends, “seems to include materially inaccurate representations.”

On the problem that he started urgent beginning in mid-Could as grounds to both renegotiate or abandon the deal — the proportion of Twitter accounts which might be pretend, spam or automated bots — Musk’s Friday missive says “it seems that Twitter is dramatically understating the proportion of spam and false accounts” represented in its rely of day by day lively customers.

He says Twitter’s rivalry that it stops counting pretend or spam customers as soon as it determines that the customers are fakes “seems to be false.”

He additionally asserts that Twitter’s course of for calculating its person numbers “seems to be arbitrary and advert hoc.”

Musk has made a difficulty of Twitter’s disclosures over a few years that the proportion of faux accounts included in its person statistics is 5% or much less. His letter says he has been brought about “to strongly consider that the proportion of false and spam accounts included within the reported … rely is wildly increased than 5%.” To again this up, nonetheless, he cites no proof.

During the last two months, Musk’s habits has made it plain that he would like to be out of this deal, although the merger contract he signed left him solely the narrowest choices to take action.

He explicitly opted to not carry out due diligence on Twitter’s books earlier than signing the deal, however subsequently demanded details about Twitter’s internal workings — although the time period “due diligence” typically refers to scrutiny a potential purchaser performs earlier than signing a deal, not afterward.

Below the phrases of the merger settlement, both get together that bails out of the deal can be topic to a $1-billion penalty fee, although Twitter may additionally demand that Musk full the deal on the signed phrases.

The Twitter board mentioned Friday that it’s ready to sue Musk to finish the deal. “We’re assured we are going to prevail within the Delaware Court docket of Chancery,” the board mentioned.

What has occurred to bitter Musk on shopping for Twitter? There are a number of prospects. One thought is that he was by no means critical to start with, however hubris led him to transform a public musing about shopping for one of many world’s main social media platforms into an actual transaction.

Then there’s the likelihood that he got here to understand that managing a platform that pulls obstreperous customers and an infinite quantity of public consideration can be an infinite ache within the bottom.

A possible issue, if not the main issue, is that the worth of know-how firms has plummeted since April. That features Twitter itself, and Tesla, the electrical automobile firm that represents most of Musk’s wealth by way of his possession of its shares; he initially pledged a lot of these shares as collateral on financing for the Twitter deal.

Since April 25 by way of Friday’s buying and selling, Twitter shares have misplaced about 30% of their worth. They by no means got here near the $54.20 per share he agreed to pay (the determine could very nicely be a marijuana-related joke … don’t ask). Tesla shares fell about 25% in the identical timeframe, and as of Friday’s shut had been about 38% beneath their peak value of $1,208.59, reached on Nov. 1.

Amid the inventory downturns, Musk introduced Could 13 that the deal was “briefly on maintain” due to his doubts about pretend accounts.

Consultants had been uncertain from the beginning of his pettifogging that he had affordable grounds to bail out. For starters, there’s no such factor in mergers as one facet inserting a deal “briefly on maintain.” Twitter, for its half, mentioned then that work on closing the deal was continuing usually.

“Merger agreements are designed to stop precisely what Musk is doing now,” Tulane enterprise professor Ann M. Lipton wrote on Twitter after Musk’s Could announcement: “have a purchaser get chilly toes after which nitpick to seek out some arguably ‘false’ rep that they will use as a pretext to keep away from their obligations.”

A “materials adversarial change” in an organization’s enterprise is a typical escape clause, however Lipton noticed that it’s “a really excessive commonplace” that has been met as soon as within the historical past of the Delaware enterprise court docket with jurisdiction over this deal. “There’s no proof that it exists right here on account of spam on Twitter’s platform.” Musk, once more, didn’t present any proof on Friday.

The one query as we speak is whether or not Musk can extricate himself, or extra exactly, at what value. Barring a settlement, this complete deal appears prefer it’s destined to show into one of many enterprise world’s longest-running courtroom dramas.

It could look fascinating at this second, however be warned: It’s nearly sure to turn out to be very tiresome, very quickly. In the event you haven’t already wearied of Musk’s clownishness, you’ll ultimately. That’s a positive wager.