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California expected to suffer from a sluggish economy through early next year

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California expected to suffer from a sluggish economy through early next year

California’s economy has split between higher-growth areas such as Los Angeles benefiting from venture capital spending — and other areas hard hit by tariffs, uncertainty and the government crackdown on immigrant labor.

That’s the finding of the winter UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday, which predicts the state’s economy as a whole will muddle through the coming months before growth picks up in the latter half of next year.

“California has now entered another bifurcated economy phase, not one between East and West, but one between AI, Aerospace, and the like, and the rest of the economy,” wrote Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist with the forecast.

The report notes that in the first half of this year, nearly 70% of all U.S. venture capital spending came to California, while in the third quarter seven of the top 10 investments nationwide were here.

Los Angeles and Orange counties in particular are benefiting from investment in aerospace and defense firms, while the Bay Area has been the recipient of artificial intelligence investments, Nickelsburg said in an interview.

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However, Silicon Valley itself has experienced job losses, the report notes, amid a weakening demand for software engineers who code — a dynamic The Times has reported on as big tech firms cut payroll while they sharply raise their investments in AI.

It was initially estimated that AI-related capital expenditures would total $250 billion this year, but already the amount has topped $400 billion, the report noted.

Another positive indicator has been an increase in air cargo at state airports, reversing a decline that began early in the pandemic, the report said.

At the same time, the Trump administration’s immigration policies have begun to dampen employment in California counties with a higher concentration of jobs in agriculture, construction as well as leisure and hospitality — with the San Joaquin Valley experiencing the largest number of job losses.

This is consistent with past episodes of restrictive immigration policies — deportations in 1930s under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in the 1950s under President Eisenhower and last decade through the Secure Communities program under President Obama, the report said.

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“So what we do know from past data is that communities that see a significant loss of population due to immigration policy are communities where the unemployment rate of those who are left tend to go up, housing prices go down, income goes down,” Nickelsburg said.

Another drag on the state’s economy has been the housing market, which has been buffeted by deportations that will reduce the number of workers skilled in drywall, flooring, roofing and other specialities. At the same time, tariffs have raised the cost of building supplies from China, Mexico and Canada.

“That the home construction sector is in the doldrums is evidenced by the continuation of depression level sales volume for single-family detached housing and continued increases in median prices,” the report said.

Overall, the state lost 21,200 payroll jobs in the first eight months of the year, the first sustained decline since the pandemic. It left the state with a 5.5% unemployment rate in August, more than a percentage point higher than the nation. The rate has stayed above 5% for more than 19 consecutive months.

The forecast predicts that California’s unemployment rate will peak at 5.9% early next year but average at 5.5% before dropping to an average of 4.6% in 2027. Employment growth is expected to be 0.7% next year and 2% in 2027. Real personal income is similarly expected to rise just 1.1% next year before picking up to 2.6% in 2027.

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The national forecast also notes that the economy is benefiting from investment in AI and rising income among wealthy households, even as tariffs, a weak jobs market and uncertain federal policies weigh on it.

That is expected to change early next year when Trump’s One Big Beautiful tax-and-spending bill stimulates growth — though the fluctuating policies and delays in economic data due to the federal shutdown make that uncertain.

“We continue to live in an era of elevated economic uncertainty regarding the economic trajectory,” the national report concludes.

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Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police

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Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police

Robotaxis could be turning into robocops.

A self-driving Waymo reported two teens to San Mateo, Calif., police on Monday after they were found drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns in the back of the vehicle.

According to a social media post from the San Mateo Police Department, officers detained two 15-year-olds after the Waymo they were riding in contacted the department and stopped in a parking lot until law enforcement arrived.

“Parents do you know where your teens are?” the San Mateo Police Department wrote on Facebook following the incident. “Waymo does!”

Officers removed both teens from the vehicle and determined they were using toy guns to shoot Orbeez out the windows. Orbeez are small, water-absorbing beads sold at toy stores.

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“Toy guns, water guns, and BB guns all pose real dangers, especially to an untrained eye,” the Police Department said. “The simple handling of them can cause fear in [passersby].” “

A video posted on Facebook shows at least five officers and a police dog responding to the scene and approaching the Waymo with their weapons raised.

Waymo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Waymo vehicles have internal cameras and microphones that may be used in an emergency or to “promote safety and security,” according to Waymo’s online support page.

The cameras are also used to ensure the vehicles are clean and to help find lost items, according to the support page.

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The company said it does not use facial recognition or other biometric identification technologies to identify individuals.

“In more urgent circumstances, support may access live video during a trip,” the Waymo page said.

The San Mateo Police Department’s Facebook post has garnered nearly 60 comments, with one user accusing Waymo of “snitching.”

“At least they got a designated driver?!” one user commented.

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Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination

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Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination

At the Supreme Court, the unfounded fear of boys masquerading as girls in youth sports rolled the clock back on gender equality.

On the surface, the Supreme Court’s June 30 opinion upholding state laws barring transgender girls from women’s and girl’s sports teams looks like a victory for women’s rights.

The 6-3 opinion by Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh certainly presents itself that way. “Females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance,” Kavanaugh wrote. “Therefore, in contact sports, forcing female athletes to compete against males can create significant safety risks.” He also asserted that “forcing female athletes to compete against males can undermine competitive fairness.”

The ruling applied to prohibitions enacted in Idaho and West Virginia against “biological” males’ participation on women’s teams in public schools. Federal judges in both states overturned the bans. The Supreme Court majority restored them. The ruling essentially upholds similar bans enacted in 25 other states.

There was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let alone any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.

— Justice Sonia Sotomayor, demolishing the Supreme Court’s argument in favor of banning transgender girls from girl’s sports

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Kavanaugh, like Donald Trump and others in the anti-transgender camp, maintained that one’s gender is an immutable fact of life, established even before birth.

Anything else, Trump stated in an executive order he issued on inauguration day 2025, could only be the product of “gender ideology extremism.” The U.S., his order stated, recognizes “two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.” That’s a “biological truth,” he declared.

In his own version of this overconfident and factually insupportable conclusion, Kavanaugh wrote: “As all agree, females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance.”

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Science recognizes that some people are “born with sex traits that don’t fit into typical male or female patterns,” to cite a discussion on the Cleveland Clinic web page on the topic “intersex.” The condition “may involve chromosomes, hormones, reproductive organs or genitals.”

From a psychological standpoint, medical science recognizes “gender dysphoria” as a real condition often requiring counseling and medical intervention such as the use of puberty blockers and hormones to stave off the development of secondary sex characteristics until the condition can be resolved.

No one disputes that there are physical differences between the sexes. Few would dispute that on average or even at the median, males may be bigger and more powerful than females, or that in certain contact sports the difference may be telling and on occasion dangerous.

But that’s not the same as asserting that the physical differences between males and females invariably mean that men will invariably prevail over women in all competitions or that their participation will endanger women.

The International Olympic Committee — in a policy statement Kavanaugh cited incompletely — says that in “most running and swimming events,” males have a 10% to 12% advantage over women. That’s a range that would accommodate the full spectrum of outcomes — transgender females win, cisfemales win, they tie. (The “cis” prefix denotes those living consistent with their birth gender.)

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West Virginia and Idaho addressed this ambiguity by banning transgender women from all girls’ teams. So under their rules transgender girls can’t play football or soccer with cisgirls. But what’s the argument in favor of banning them from the 100-yard dash, or cross-country track, or diving, or archery?

But something else is going on here. The Supreme Court’s ruling was almost preordained, given the years-long campaign by conservatives to demonize transgender individuals as if they’re members of an alien species.

It will be recalled that during his presidential campaign, Trump spun a despicable fantasy in which children were kidnapped in school and secretly subjected to sex-change operations.

Trump’s executive order wiped out policies aimed at protecting transgender adults from discrimination. He moved to outlaw gender-affirming medical therapies for anyone under 19 by cutting off federal funding for healthcare institutions that provide such care.

He banned transgender individuals from serving in the military and ordered federal prison officials to move transgender inmates into the general populations consistent with their birth genders, which exposes them to physical assault. (Federal Judge Royce Lamberth of Washington, D.C., has blocked the government from transferring three transgender women into the male prison population or terminating their hormone treatments.)

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I wrote during Trump’s first term, when his anti-transgender policies were still gestating, that the goal was to show that “one can target any community, as long as it doesn’t have a strong political voice or political power. These are the actions of bullies and cowards, pretending to be strong.”

Last year, the Supreme Court struck its first blow against transgender rights by upholding a Tennessee law banning transgender care, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for minors. Similar laws have been enacted in 25 other states. The majority in that ruling by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. was identical to the one in the June 30 ruling — Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.

Who are the targets of this ideological campaign? They number only about 1.6 million U.S. adults, or one-half of 1% of the U.S. population. About 300,000 adolescents ages 13 to 17, or 1.4%, identify as transgender, according to a study by UCLA School of Law.

In West Virginia, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor observed in her dissenting opinion, “there was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let along any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.”

In endorsing the flat bans directed at transgender women in Idaho and West Virginia, Kavanaugh argued that any attempt to implement case-by-case judgments of students’ requests to join sports teams inconsistent with their biological gender would create “an enormous practical and administrability problem.”

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Is that so? That wasn’t the case in Maine, where the annual K-12 population is more than 170,000. There, a committee was charged with determining whether a student’s participation in a sport consistent with their gender identity but inconsistent with their biological sex would “result in an unfair athletic advantage” or present a risk of injury to others. The committee held 56 hearings from 2013 through 2021, or an average of seven per year. During the entire time span, only four involved transgender girls. (The outcome of those hearings couldn’t be learned.)

It was Maine’s policy, one might recall, that provoked a confrontation between Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills at the White House last year, when Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the state unless it barred transgender students from competing on women’s sports teams. “We’ll see you in court,” Mills snapped.

Whether the Idaho and West Virginia laws genuinely protect girls from unfair competition is questionable. (The Idaho law is styled the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.”) In practice, the laws may subject women in public schools to “invasive sex verification procedures,” as educational expert George Theoharis of Syracuse University wrote after the court ruling.

They’re also based on a retrograde view of women as fragile creatures needing men’s protection, Theoharis wrote — “the same logic that has historically been used to justify excluding women from making their own healthcare decisions and girls from rigorous math and science; that physically demanding work is simply beyond them.” (There don’t appear to be any state laws barring transgender women from competing in men’s sports.)

Becky Pepper-Jackson, the plaintiff in the West Virginia case, in which she is identified only as B.P.J., is the only transgender girl who sought to join girl’s teams — track and cross-country — in the state. That was in 2021, just after West Virginia passed its law and she was about to enter sixth grade. She didn’t appear to pose any competitive risk to others on the track and cross-country teams she applied to join — her lawyers told the Supreme Court that on those no-cut teams, she “came in near the back.”

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Anyway, she had not gone through male puberty, which theoretically might have endowed her with a competitive advantage, because she had been taking puberty blockers and female hormones.

Thanks to the court’s ruling, Sotomayor observed in a dissent joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, West Virginia can deny Becky access to school sports “because it thinks they have an inherent athletic advantage, even if the facts show that they do not.”

B.P.J., Sotomayor wrote, “cannot practice on girls’ teams, even if she would not take anyone’s spot in an eventual competition, even if everyone who tries out for the team makes it, and even if having the chance to participate could aid immensely in treating B. P. J.’s gender dysphoria.”

So whose interest was really protected by the Supreme Court?

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Orange County real estate investor pleads not guilty in $100 million bank fraud case

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Orange County real estate investor pleads not guilty in 0 million bank fraud case

An Orange County real estate investor accused of criminally defrauding an Arizona bank of nearly $100 million pleaded not guilty Monday and remains in custody.

Mahender Makhijani, 44, of Corona del Mar — who also was ordered by an arbitrator to pay $1.34 billion in a separate civil fraud case — was arraigned in Santa Ana federal court on two charges.

He is accused of bank fraud and making a false statement to a bank in a June 8 case involving a $100 million real estate loan made by Phoenix-based Western Alliance Bank. He was taken into custody on June 10.

Makhijani is accused of providing bogus collateral for the October 2024 loan now in default. In a civil lawsuit, Western Alliance said the outstanding balance as nearly $99 million.

Prosecutors say he falsified title insurance policies that showed the bank would have a first lien on the underlying collateral if the loan went bad, when in fact it did not.

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A trial was set for August 11 before U.S. District Judge David O. Carter in Santa Ana.

Michael Schachter, his criminal defense attorney, did not respond to messages seeking comment.

In the civil case, an arbitrator in May ordered Makhijani to pay Laguna Beach real estate mogul Mohammad Honarkar $1.34 billion after ruling he had fraudulently induced him into a 2021 joint venture — and then wrested control and lost to creditors more than two dozen properties Honarkar had owned.

Makhijani has not been criminally charged in that case, but prosecutors alleged in an affidavit in support of the bank fraud charges that he used “force and threats” in his dealings with Honarkar and others — including taking over the landmark Hotel Laguna in 2023 that Honarkar was renovating.

Prosecutors sought to hold Makhijani without bail after his arrest.

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The affidavit noted he is a legal Indian immigrant with a home and bank accounts in that country, has access to private jets and threatened to “run away” if caught in a difficult situation.

The request was denied and he was granted $500,000 bail.

However, Makhijani remains in custody after a hearing sought by prosecutors last month before Magistrate Judge Autumn Spaeth.

The judge declined to accept a $450,000 cashier’s check submitted by a Makhijani associate for the bail, finding insufficient proof the source of the funds was legitimate, according to court records.

Makhijani is not prominent outside Orange County real estate circles, but he established a thriving distressed-assets business over the last decade that attracted prominent Southern California real estate investors.

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Prosecutors said it paid for a lifestyle that included two multimillion-dollar homes in Corona del Mar, a luxury apartment in Newport Beach and various luxury vehicles.

As of last month, prosecutors had not fully traced his assets, which they believe are not held in his name and some of which may be in India.

The businessman employed an array of shell companies and strawmen to sign documents on his behalf, and to stand in for him as operators of his companies, according to the affidavit.

Makhijani told an associate he took extra precautions because wanted to insulate himself from litigation and that “they were sharks in the distressed world who took advantage of people,” the affidavit stated.

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