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Big Tech Earnings Will Test Investors’ Fervor for A.I.

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Big Tech Earnings Will Test Investors’ Fervor for A.I.

Nasdaq futures are up on Tuesday morning, ahead of a Big Tech earnings bonanza that kicks off when Microsoft and Alphabet report second-quarter results after the closing bell. One question is at the top of many investors’ minds: Is the hype around artificial intelligence, which has propelled tech giants’ stock prices sky-high in recent months, justified, or is it another bubble in the making?

Wall Street is deeply divided about the A.I. rally. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, apologized to clients on Monday, writing that his pessimistic stock market calls failed to spot the surge in A.I.-related stocks. (The chip maker Nvidia, for example, has seen its stock triple in value since January.) And analysts at Citigroup are sticking to their bullish thesis for such companies.

On the other hand, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase’s chief market strategist, is unconvinced that tech fervor will help the markets avoid a sharp decline this year.

All eyes will be on Microsoft and Alphabet, which are at the forefront of commercializing generative A.I., the technology behind chatbots like ChatGPT that have captured the public’s imagination. Both are incorporating A.I. into a wide array of their products, with Microsoft — which has invested billions in OpenAI — hoping that the technology can help it gain ground on Google in key businesses like search.

Meta’s turn is Wednesday. The parent company of Facebook and Instagram is also betting big on the technology, including by making the code for its most advanced A.I. project free for public use. (Analysts also want to know more about how Meta plans to make money from Threads, its new rival to Twitter, the company rebranded as X.)

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Macroeconomic factors are still weighing on these companies. Inflation and an uncertain outlook hit them hard last year, as customers cut back on buying software and spending on advertising, spurring them to lay off thousands of workers.

Recent data shows that inflation has begun to moderate, lifting these stocks in recent weeks, but investors will want to see proof that the sector is through the worst of it. The Fed is widely expected to increase interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, but Wall Street isn’t sure whether the central bank will stop there or continue raising borrowing costs and risk a recession.

And it won’t just come down to tech stocks. This is the busiest week of the current earnings season, with 39 percent of S&P 500 firms announcing results. The next few days will provide an important look at the overall health of corporate America. Consumer bellwethers including Coca-Cola and McDonald’s and industrial titans like Boeing will be reporting.

Unilever says that inflation has peaked. Shares in the consumer goods giant rallied on Tuesday morning after it reported a strong second-half sales outlook, with the company forecasting that slowing price increases will translate to higher consumer purchases. But it warned that the war in Ukraine could send agricultural commodity prices higher, raising costs.

UBS agrees to $387 million in fines over Credit Suisse missteps. UBS reached a deal with U.S. and British regulators to resolve inquiries into the oversight failures that led to Credit Suisse losing $5.5 billion in the collapse of the investment firm Archegos in 2021. UBS bought its ailing rival this year, inheriting its thicket of legal troubles.

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Senators cast new scrutiny over Leon Black’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein. The Senate Finance Committee is investigating whether a $158 million payout from Mr. Black to the disgraced financier for tax and estate planning services was part of a tax-avoidance scheme, The Times reports. Separately, the U.S. Virgin Islands accused JPMorgan Chase of reimbursing a former executive, Jes Staley, for trips to meet Epstein.

The I.R.S. ends surprise visits to homes and businesses. The agency said that it would stop the practice, which was a mainstay of efforts to collect unpaid taxes. The move comes as the I.R.S. rethinks its operations, and faces increased political scrutiny by Republicans and threats to its employees.

The U.S. reportedly scrutinizes Abu Dhabi’s takeover bid for Fortress Investment Group. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is examining whether the $3 billion deal by Mubadala, an Emirati sovereign wealth fund, poses national security concerns, according to The Financial Times. At issue are the United Arab Emirates’ ties to China.

Cryptocurrencies and climate change have been linked as issues before in terms of how carbon-intensive it is to produce new digital tokens. But the crypto industry is also hoping to piggyback off a legal doctrine at the heart of a Supreme Court decision involving the Environmental Protection Agency last year.

Coinbase is seizing on an E.P.A. loss as a legal defense. Last summer, the Supreme Court struck down an emissions rule by the environmental agency, citing the so-called major questions doctrine, a principle asserting that Congress hasn’t given regulators power to decide significant political or economic issues on their own.

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Now, Coinbase is arguing that the S.E.C. can’t prosecute it because it lacks the power to regulate crypto. Moreover, the exchange says, Congress is actively working on legislation to oversee its industry. “It’s never been clearer that the Supreme Court has particular focus on major questions and the role of regulators in our economy,” Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, told DealBook.

The S.E.C. counters that Coinbase is missing the point. Agency lawyers wrote in a recent court filing that the E.P.A. case was about rule-making, not the regulator’s power to prosecute. Critics add that it’s not clear that regulating crypto counts as a major-question issue, given that the industry’s total market capitalization is less than that of Apple, Microsoft or Alphabet.

Business advocates appear undeterred by those arguments. “The major questions doctrine seems built for crypto at this moment,” Katie Haun, the crypto investor and former federal prosecutor, tweeted recently.

Separately, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents businesses more broadly, has expressed eagerness to use major-questions arguments in court to limit the power of a proposed Federal Trade Commission ban on noncompete clauses.


Led by “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” the North American box office had its biggest weekend since 2019 and its fourth-best ever. Here’s how the phenomenon stacks up to other weekend performances, which were each dominated by a single blockbuster.

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Though Elon Musk’s rebranding of Twitter as X came as a surprise over the weekend, the abrupt name change is playing about as well as could have been expected these days. Users and advertisers were divided on the wisdom of the move, which eliminated the company’s longtime bird logo, even if pulling down the old signage ran into some hiccups.

The change was reflected at Twitter’s headquarters immediately. Inside the San Francisco office, X logos were projected in the cafeteria, while conference rooms were renamed with words including “eXposure” and “s3Xy,” according to The Times.

But efforts to remove the Twitter name from the building encountered difficulties, when the San Francisco Police Department stopped workers for performing “unauthorized work.” As of this morning, the letters “er” remain visible from the street.

People can’t agree on whether the move will cost the company dearly. Skeptics said ditching the Twitter name and famous bird logo — which Twitter once identified as among its most recognizable assets — could cost as much as $20 billion in value. (Among them: Esther Crawford, the former Twitter executive who was briefly among Mr. Musk’s top lieutenants.) Some users bemoaned the switch to the more generic-sounding X.

Others said that the rebranding could help the company shed years of baggage associated with the Twitter name, a line of thought shared by none other than Jack Dorsey, the company’s co-founder. Some ad executives said that the change wouldn’t meaningfully drive away potential advertisers, while others said that Musk had at least succeeded in drumming up publicity for his platform after Meta’s Threads made a splashy debut.

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Speaking of Meta … the Facebook parent company owns an X trademark with regards to social networking, though it relates to a specific blue-and-white logo. Mr. Musk’s company now uses a black-and-white mark, though trademark lawyers said the reliance on a simple letter almost certainly invited legal challenges.

Deals

  • A Saudi soccer team majority-owned by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund has offered a record $332 million to sign Kylian Mbappé, the French star. (NYT)

  • Blackstone’s flagship real estate fund agreed to sell Simply Self Storage for $2.2 billion as it continues to limit investor withdrawals. (Bloomberg)

  • Johnson & Johnson said it planned to reduce its stake in Kenvue, the consumer-health business it spun off this year, by at least 80 percent through an exchange offer. (CNBC)

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Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos to Attend Trump’s Inauguration

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Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos to Attend Trump’s Inauguration

Corporate America had already raced to donate big sums to Donald Trump’s record-breaking inaugural fund. Now some of its leaders appear eager to jockey for prominent positions at the inauguration next week.

It’s a new reminder that for some of the nation’s biggest businesses, forging close ties to a president-elect who is promising hard-hitting policies like tariffs is a priority this time around.

Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are expected to be on the inauguration dais, according to NBC News, alongside Elon Musk and several cabinet picks.

The presence of Musk isn’t a surprise, given the Tesla chief’s significant support of and huge influence over Trump. But the other tech moguls have only more recently been seen as supporters of the administration. (Indeed, Bezos frequently sparred with Trump during his first presidential term.)

It’s the latest effort by Bezos and Zuckerberg to burnish their Trump credentials. At the DealBook Summit in December, Bezos — whose Amazon has faced scrutiny under the Biden administration and whose Blue Origin is hoping to win government rocket contracts — said that he was “very hopeful” about Trump’s efforts to reduce regulation.

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And Zuckerberg recently announced significant changes to Meta’s content moderation policy, including relaxing restrictions on speech seen as protecting groups including L.G.B.T.Q. people that won praise from Trump and other conservatives. On the inauguration front, Zuckerberg is also co-hosting a reception alongside the longtime Trump backers Miriam Adelson, Tilman Fertitta and Todd Ricketts.

Both tech moguls have visited Mar-a-Lago since the election, with Zuckerberg having done so more than once.

Coca-Cola took a different tack. The drinks giant’s C.E.O., James Quincey, gave Trump what an aide called the “first ever Presidential Commemorative Inaugural Diet Coke bottle.”

More broadly, business leaders want a piece of the inauguration action. The Times previously reported that the Trump inaugural fund had surpassed $170 million, a record, and that even major donors have been wait-listed for events.

Others are throwing unofficial events around Washington, including an “Inaugural Crypto Ball” that will feature Snoop Dogg, with tickets starting at $5,000, The Wall Street Journal reports.

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It’s a reminder that C.E.O.s are reading the room, and preparing their companies for a president who has proposed creating an “External Revenue Service” to oversee what he has promised will be wide-ranging tariffs.

David Urban, a longtime Trump adviser who’s hosting a pre-inauguration event, told The Journal, “This is the world order, and if we’re going to succeed, we need to get with the world order.”

  • In other Trump news: The president-elect is expected to appear via videoconference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which starts on Inauguration Day, according to Semafor.

Investors brace for the latest inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is expected to show that inflation ticked up last month, most likely because of climbing food and fuel costs. Global bond markets have been rattled as slow progress on slowing inflation has prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for interest rate cuts.

More Trump cabinet picks will appear before the Senate on Wednesday. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the choice for secretary of state, is expected to field questions about his views on the Middle East, Ukraine and China, but is expected to be confirmed. Russell Vought, the pick to run the Office of Management and Budget, will most likely be asked about his advocacy for drastically shrinking the federal government, a key Trump objective. And Sean Duffy, the Fox Business host chosen to lead the Transportation Department, will probably face questions on how he would oversee matters including aviation safety and autonomous vehicles, the latter of which is a priority for Elon Musk.

Meta plans to lay off another 5 percent of its employees. Mark Zuckerberg, the tech giant’s C.E.O., told staff members to prepare for “extensive performance-based cuts” as the company braces for “an intense year.” The social media giant faces intense competition in the race to commercialize artificial intelligence.

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A new bill would give TikTok a reprieve from a ban in the United States. Senator Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, said he planned to introduce the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act, which would give the video platform 270 additional days to be divested from its Chinese parent, ByteDance before being blacklisted. It’s the latest effort to buy TikTok time, as the app faces a Jan. 19 deadline set by a law; President-elect Donald Trump has opposed the potential ban as well.

JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock, the giant money manager, just reported earnings. (In short: Both handily beat analyst expectations.)

But the Wall Street giants are likely to face questioning on a particular issue on Wednesday: Which top lieutenants are in line to replace their larger-than-life C.E.O.s, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink.

Who’s out:

  • Daniel Pinto, who had long been Dimon’s right-hand man, said he would officially drop his responsibilities as JPMorgan’s C.O.O. in June and retire at the end of 2026. Jenn Piepszak, the co-C.E.O. of the company’s core commercial and investment bank, has become C.O.O.

  • And Mark Wiedman, the head of BlackRock’s global client business and a top contender to succeed Fink, is planning to leave, according to news reports.

What Wall Street is gossiping about JPMorgan: Even in taking the C.O.O. role, JPMorgan said that Piepszak wasn’t interested in succeeding Dimon “at this time.” DealBook hears that while she genuinely appears not to want to pursue the top job, the phrasing covers her in case she changes her mind.

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For now, that means the most likely candidates for the top spot are Marianne Lake, the company’s head of consumer and community banking; Troy Rohrbaugh, the other co-head of the commercial and investment bank; and Doug Petno, a co-head of global banking.

The buzz around BlackRock: Wiedman reportedly didn’t want to keep waiting to succeed Fink and is expected to seek a C.E.O. position elsewhere. (So sudden was his departure that he’s forfeiting about $8 million worth of stock options and, according to The Wall Street Journal, he doesn’t have another job lined up yet.)

Fink said on CNBC on Wednesday that Wiedman’s departure had been in the works for some time, with the executive having expressed a desire to leave about six months ago.

Other candidates to take over for Fink include Martin Small, BlackRock’s C.F.O.; Rob Goldstein, the firm’s C.O.O.; and Rachel Lord, the head of international.

But Dimon and Fink aren’t going anywhere just yet. Dimon, 68, said only last year that he might not be in the role in five years. And Fink, 72, said in July that he was working on succession planning: “When I do believe the next generation is ready, I’m out.”

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Another battle between Elon Musk and the S.E.C. erupted on Tuesday, with the agency suing the tech mogul over his 2022 purchase of Twitter.

It’s unclear what happens to the lawsuit once President-elect Donald Trump, who counts Musk as a close ally, takes office. But the agency’s reputation as an independent watchdog may be at stake.

A recap: The S.E.C. accused Musk of violating securities laws in his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company.

The agency said that Musk had failed to disclose his Twitter ownership stake for a pivotal 11-day stretch before revealing his intentions to purchase the company. That breach allowed him to buy up at least $150 million worth of Twitter shares at a lower price — to the detriment of existing shareholders, the agency argues.

The S.E.C. isn’t just seeking to fine Musk. It wants him to pay back the windfall. “That’s unusual,” Ann Lipton, a professor at Tulane Law School, told DealBook.

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Alex Spiro, Musk’s lawyer, called the latest action a “sham” and accused the agency of waging a “multiyear campaign of harassment” against him.

The showdown sets up a tough question for the S.E.C. Will Paul Atkins, the president-elect’s widely respected pick to lead the agency, drop the case? Such a move could call the bedrock principle of S.E.C. independence into question.

Jay Clayton, who led the agency during Trump’s first term, earned the respect of the business community for running it in a largely drama-free manner. It was under Clayton that the S.E.C. sued Musk over his statements about taking Tesla private.

Musk, who is set to become Trump’s cost-cutting czar and is expected to have office space in the White House complex, has called for the “comprehensive overhaul” of agencies like the S.E.C. The billionaire said he would also like to see “punitive action against those individuals who have abused their regulatory power for personal and political gain.”

  • In related news: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued Capital One, accusing it of cheating its depositors out of $2 billion in interest payments.

Deals

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  • DAZN, the streaming network backed by the billionaire businessman Len Blavatnik, is closing in on funding from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund as the kingdom continues to expand its sports footprint. (NYT)

  • The Justice Department sued KKR, accusing the investment giant of withholding information during government reviews for several of its deals. KKR filed a countersuit. (Bloomberg)

  • OpenAI added Adebayo Ogunlesi, the billionaire co-founder of the infrastructure investment firm Global Infrastructure Partners, to its board. (FT)

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For uninsured fire victims, the Small Business Administration offers a rare lifeline

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For uninsured fire victims, the Small Business Administration offers a rare lifeline

As wildfires continue to burn around Southern California, thousands of business owners, homeowners and renters are confronting the daunting challenge of rebuilding from the ashes. For some number of them, the road ahead will be all the more difficult because they didn’t have any or enough insurance to cover their losses. For them, the U.S. Small Business Administration is a possible lifeline.

The SBA, which offers emergency loans to businesses, homeowners, renters and nonprofits, is among the few relief options for those who don’t have insurance or are underinsured. Uninsured Angelenos can also apply for disaster assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA.

The current wildfires are ravaging a state that was already in the midst of a home insurance crisis. Thousands of homeowners have lost their insurance in recent years as providers pull out of fire-prone areas and jack up their prices in the face of rising risk.

“For those who are not going to get that insurance payout, this is available,” Small Business Administration head Isabella Casillas Guzman said in an interview during a recent trip to the fire areas. “The loans are intended to fill gaps, and that is very broad.”

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About one-third of businesses don’t have insurance and three-quarters are underinsured, Guzman said.

“There will be residual effects around the whole community,” she said. “Insurance will not cover this disaster.”

Businesses, nonprofits and small agricultural cooperatives can apply for an economic injury loan or a physical damage loan through SBA. Homeowners are eligible for physical damage loans. Economic injury loans are intended to help businesses meet ordinary financial demands, while physical damage loans provide funds for repairs and restoration. People can apply online and loans must be repaid within 30 years.

Renters can receive up to $100,000 in assistance, homeowners up to $500,000 and businesses up to $2 million, according to Guzman. Homeowners and renters who cannot get access to credit elsewhere can qualify for loans with a interest rate of 2.5%. The SBA determines an applicant has no credit available elsewhere if they do not have other funds to pay for disaster recovery and cannot borrow from nongovernment sources.

Interest rates for homeowners and renters who do have access to credit elsewhere are just over 5%. Loans for businesses could come with interest rates of 4% or 8% depending on whether the business has other credit options.

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An applicant must show they are able to repay their loan and have a credit history acceptable to the SBA in order to be approved. The loans became available following President Biden’s declaration of a major disaster in California.

“We’ve already received hundreds of applications from individuals and businesses interested in exploring additional support,” Guzman said. “We know the economic disruption may not be contained to the footprint of any evacuation zones or power outages.”

People who don’t have insurance or whose insurance doesn’t cover the entirety of their losses are eligible for loans, Guzman said. While many will use the funds to start from scratch after losing their property to the fires, businesses that are still standing can also apply for support to cover lost revenue.

Guzman was not able to estimate the total value of loans they expect to offer in California but said the organization is on solid financial footing after temporarily running out of funds in October.

“Funding has been replenished by Congress, and we expect to be able to coordinate closely with Congress,” Guzman said. “We’re fully funded and in a good position to provide support.”

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Cookies, Cocktails and Mushrooms on the Menu as Justices Hear Bank Fraud Case

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Cookies, Cocktails and Mushrooms on the Menu as Justices Hear Bank Fraud Case

In a lively Supreme Court argument on Tuesday that included references to cookies, cocktails and toxic mushrooms, the justices tried to find the line between misleading statements and outright lies in the case of a Chicago politician convicted of making false statements to bank regulators.

The case concerned Patrick Daley Thompson, a former Chicago alderman who is the grandson of one former mayor, Richard J. Daley, and the nephew of another, Richard M. Daley. He conceded that he had misled the regulators but said his statements fell short of the outright falsehoods he said were required to make them criminal.

The justices peppered the lawyers with colorful questions that tried to tease out the difference between false and misleading statements.

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked whether a motorist pulled over on suspicion of driving while impaired said something false by stating that he had had one cocktail while omitting that he had also drunk four glasses of wine.

Caroline A. Flynn, a lawyer for the federal government, said that a jury could find the statement to be false because “the officer was asking for a complete account of how much the person had had to drink.”

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Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson asked about a child who admitted to eating three cookies when she had consumed 10.

Ms. Flynn said context mattered.

“If the mom had said, ‘Did you eat all the cookies,’ or ‘how many cookies did you eat,’ and the child says, ‘I ate three cookies’ when she ate 10, that’s a false statement,” Ms. Flynn said. “But, if the mom says, ‘Did you eat any cookies,’ and the child says three, that’s not an understatement in response to a specific numerical inquiry.”

Justice Sonia Sotomayor asked whether it was false to label toxic mushrooms as “a hundred percent natural.” Ms. Flynn did not give a direct response.

The case before the court, Thompson v. United States, No. 23-1095, started when Mr. Thompson took out three loans from Washington Federal Bank for Savings between 2011 and 2014. He used the first, for $110,000, to finance a law firm. He used the next loan, for $20,000, to pay a tax bill. He used the third, for $89,000, to repay a debt to another bank.

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He made a single payment on the loans, for $390 in 2012. The bank, which did not press him for further payments, went under in 2017.

When the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a loan servicer it had hired sought repayment of the loans plus interest, amounting to about $270,000, Mr. Thompson told them he had borrowed $110,000, which was true in a narrow sense but incomplete.

After negotiations, Mr. Thompson in 2018 paid back the principal but not the interest. More than two years later, federal prosecutors charged him with violating a law making it a crime to give “any false statement or report” to influence the F.D.I.C.

He was convicted and ordered to repay the interest, amounting to about $50,000. He served four months in prison.

Chris C. Gair, a lawyer for Mr. Thompson, said his client’s statements were accurate in context, an assertion that met with skepticism. Justice Elena Kagan noted that the jury had found the statements were false and that a ruling in Mr. Thompson’s favor would require a court to rule that no reasonable juror could have come to that conclusion.

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Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Brett M. Kavanaugh said that issue was not before the court, which had agreed to decide the legal question of whether the federal law, as a general matter, covered misleading statements. Lower courts, they said, could decide whether Mr. Thompson had been properly convicted.

Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. asked for an example of a misleading statement that was not false. Mr. Gair, who was presenting his first Supreme Court argument, responded by talking about himself.

“If I go back and change my website and say ‘40 years of litigation experience’ and then in bold caps say ‘Supreme Court advocate,’” he said, “that would be, after today, a true statement. It would be misleading to anybody who was thinking about whether to hire me.”

Justice Alito said such a statement was, at most, mildly misleading. But Justice Kagan was impressed.

“Well, it is, though, the humblest answer I’ve ever heard from the Supreme Court podium,” she said, to laughter. “So good show on that one.”

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