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Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

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Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model


Iron Bowl 2025 is here, as SEC title and playoff hopeful Alabama hits the road looking to avoid a third loss against rival Auburn, hoping to simply become bowl eligible.

Alabama has never been ranked in the top-ten and lost on the road against an unranked Auburn team, and this time around the Tide have a shot at reaching the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn has history on its side in a way, losing by a combined five points in their last two home games against the Crimson Tide, whose playoff hopes are considerably shakier now with two losses.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the SP+ computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

The model predictably likes the Crimson Tide over the Tigers, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 27 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.0 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a solid 65 percent chance against the Tigers outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 (48.3%) in its picks against the spread.

The betting markets also favor the Crimson Tide, but by less than a touchdown on the road.

Alabama is a 5.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -220 and for Auburn at +184 to win outright.

Ty Simpson has been the backbone of an efficient Alabama aerial attack, but has seen his efficiency slip in recent weeks heading into what could be an intense road environment.

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Auburn does not have the same skill at quarterback, but have proven successful at running the football, albeit now into the teeth of a much improved Alabama run defense.

College Football HQ predicts: Alabama wins, and covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Alabama

Top-30 overall recruit Jaxon Richardson commits to Alabama

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Top-30 overall recruit Jaxon Richardson commits to Alabama


Jaxon Richardson, the No. 27 overall recruit in the 2026 class per the Rivals Industry Ranking, has committed to Alabama.

The 6-foot-6 four-star small forward out of Southeastern Prep (FL) ultimately chose the Crimson Tide over USC, Creighton, and Ole Miss. He also received offers from Miami, Cincinnati, Michigan, Florida, Villanova, and others.

Richardson, a McDonald’s All-American, becomes the Crimson Tide’s third commitment of the 2026 cycle. He joins four-star shooting guard Qayden Samuels (No. 28 NATL) and four-star small forward Tarris Bouie (No. 54 NATL).

He’s the son of NBA veteran and two-time NBA Dunk Contest champion Jason Richardson. His older brother, Jase, played for Michigan State last season before being selected 25th overall in the 2025 NBA Draft by the Orlando Magic.

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More on Richardson

Rivals’ National Recruiting Analyst Jamie Shaw says Richardson is one of the most explosive players in the 2026 class:

Jaxon Richardson is able to combine fluid athleticism with explosive burst in a way no other player in this class can. He uses his athleticism to his advantage on the floor. He fills the outside channels with a purpose in transition, he is aggressive in the passing lanes, and he plays as a vertical floor spacer in the dunker spots and lob plays. Last summer, playing with the Florida Rebels on Nike’s EYBL Circuit, the 6-foot-6 wing averaged 12.8 points on 54.0 percent shooting and 10.5 attempts per game. Last high school season, he averaged 12.9 points on 61.0 percent shooting on 8.9 attempts per game. He is a highly efficient player, as 84.4 percent of his makes last high school season were at the rim.



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Alabama Baseball Ties Stolen Base Record In Win Over Hornets

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Alabama Baseball Ties Stolen Base Record In Win Over Hornets


Alabama baseball cruised to a win over Alabama State on Wednesday night, beating the Hornets 13-4 to complete the season sweep. The Crimson Tide tied a program record with nine stolen bases in one of the stranger contests that will be played this season.

The tone was set for a tumultuous night on the basepaths in the opening minutes of the game. Leadoff batter Bryce Fowler, who exited Tuesday’s game after getting beaned in the head, was walked, and promptly took second base. He advanced to third on a wild pitch in Justin Lebron’s at-bat, paving the way for Lebron to steal second when he was ultimately walked as well.

The successful baserunning instantly paid off, as Brady Neal drove both in with a double to left-center field before John Lemm walked two at-bats later. Both runners stole their respective bases on the same pitch in Jason Torres’ plate appearance, meaning that four of the first five batters of the game stole a base.

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Alabama has been exceptional on the basepaths, sitting at 30-for-30 on the season. Lebron, who swiped two bags on Wednesday, leads the team with 12. The junior had an up-and-down night, hitting his eighth home run of the season, but also committing an error at shortstop for the fourth consecutive game.

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“Get those things out of there now, baby. The dude is unbelievable,” an unconcerned Rob Vaughn said on Tuesday of Lebron’s errors. “We’re going to look up at the end of the year, and that guy is going to have five or six errors, which one he’s got right now, and we’ll be like, ‘Man, that guy is the best of all time to do it.’”

Wednesday’s game was a very prototypical midweek contest with no shortage of quirks and oddities throughout its nearly four-hour runtime. Fifteen Alabama batters were walked, falling just one shy of the program record, and the hit by pitch record was tied as seven batters were plunked.

The game was never competitive from an on-field standpoint. After barely escaping with a 2-1 win in the first matchup with the Hornets two weeks ago, this was a far more accurate representation of what these games typically look like, as Alabama now leads the all-time series 15-0.

Freshman Joe Chiarodo made his first career start, allowing two hits and one walk over two scoreless innings. He was named the winning pitcher. Luke Smyers, Connor Lehman, Anthony Pesci and Tate Robertson were the other pitchers to take the mound. Lehman allowed a three-run blast in the sixth inning, and those were the only runs until the incredibly-named Skywalker Mann drove in a run off Robertson in the ninth.

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Perhaps the most shocking figure from the game was that Alabama had 19 runners left on base. The Crimson Tide left the bases loaded in four different innings. As stated, this was just a bizarre baseball game across the board. With the midweeks out of the way, the Crimson Tide gets to prepare for its final weekend tune-up before SEC play as North Florida heads into Tuscaloosa on Friday.



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New Alabama law to set screen time limits for kids in day care, pre-K and kindergarten

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New Alabama law to set screen time limits for kids in day care, pre-K and kindergarten


The Healthy Early Development and Screen Time Act was signed on Wednesday, March 4, by Governor Kay Ivey to introduce limits on children’s screen time access in Alabama.

The Act is one of Ivey’s 2026 legislative priorities.

“Video screen access in classrooms can boost learning skills among our young children, but too much screen exposure can also be detrimental, harming critical social and cognitive development,” Ivey said. “The Healthy Early Development and Screen Time Act ensures our youngest students are provided a healthy balance of screen time and traditional learning in order to protect social and emotional development.”

Under the Healthy Early Development and Screen Time Act, the Alabama Department of Early Childhood Education will be required to work with the Department of Human Resources and the State Department of Education to develop guidelines for screen-based media.

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Guidelines will be implemented in early childhood education programs like day care centers, day care homes, night care facilities, pre-kindergarten, kindergarten and group day care homes. The Act was sponsored by Representative Jeana Ross and Senator Donnie Chesteen.

“House Bill 78 establishes clear, research-based expectations for how technology is used in early childhood settings,” said Ross. “The goal is not to eliminate technology, but to ensure its use is developmentally appropriate and never replaces the hands-on learning and human interaction young children need most. By setting thoughtful guardrails and aligning classroom practices with the best available research on early brain development, this legislation supports educators, protects the quality of early learning and reinforces our commitment to giving Alabama’s youngest students the strongest possible start.”

A training program will also be created by the Department of Early Childhood Education to create a baseline for the appropriate use of child screentime for teachers and staff members supervising children.

“The Healthy Early Development and Screen Time Act represents another important step in ensuring Alabama’s youngest children grow and learn in environments that prioritize human interaction, exploration and healthy development,” said Chesteen. “Building on the progress made with last year’s FOCUS Act, this legislation continues our commitment to protecting the most formative years of childhood. I am grateful to Governor Kay Ivey and my colleagues in the Legislature for recognizing the importance of this issue and working together to support Alabama families.”

The Healthy Early Development and Screen Time Act will become effective on January 1, 2027.

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