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Global oil supplies forecast to outstrip demand this year despite Middle East war

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Global oil supplies forecast to outstrip demand this year despite Middle East war

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The International Energy Agency has predicted that global oil supplies will substantially outstrip demand this year even as the escalating conflict in the Middle East raises fears of disruptions.

Global oil production is expected to rise by 1.8mn barrels a day in 2025 to 104.9mn b/d, outstripping forecast demand of 103.8mn b/d and leading to a rise in oil inventories over the course of the year, the intergovernmental energy advisory body said in its annual report.

“In the absence of a major disruption, oil markets in 2025 look well supplied,” the IEA said.

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The increase in supply is expected to come from both the Opec+ cartel, which is in the process of reversing a series of production cuts, and from non-Opec+ producers, which will add an average of 1.4mn b/d over the year, it said.

At the same time, weak consumption in China and the US will restrain global demand, which it predicted will grow by 720,000 b/d this year, less than a previously forecast increase of 740,000 b/d.

With supply exceeding demand, the amount of oil in storage in the world has risen by an average of 1mn b/d since February, and by “a massive” 93mn barrels in May alone, the IEA added. However, total inventories still remained 90mn barrels lower than a year ago.

The IEA cautioned that conflict between Israel and Iran posed significant “geopolitical risks to oil supply security” but added that there had been “no impact on Iranian oil flows at the time of writing”.

Iran partially suspended production at the world’s biggest natural gasfield, South Pars, after an Israeli air strike at the weekend, but it was still unclear if production had been affected, it said.

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The Shahran oil depot and refinery near Tehran had also been targeted, but no damage was reported, it added.

In a separate report on the outlook to 2030, the IEA forecast that oil supply would continue to outstrip demand over the next five years. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5mn b/d between 2024 and 2030, reaching “a plateau” of 105.5mn by the end of the decade.

Supply will rise much faster, it said, with global production capacity increasing by more than 5mn b/d to 114.7mn b/d.

The slowdown in oil demand growth will be driven in large part by China, where the IEA now expects consumption to peak in 2027, following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the continued rollout of high-speed rail and gas-powered trucking, it said.

The forecast aligns with predictions made by China’s largest oil companies but is the first time the IEA has put a firm date on peak Chinese demand.

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Russia says talks on US peace plan for Ukraine ‘are proceeding constructively’

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Russia says talks on US peace plan for Ukraine ‘are proceeding constructively’

FILE – Russian Presidential foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, left, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, center, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, foreground right, and Russian Direct Investment Fund CEO Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev, behind Witkoff, arrive to attend talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Senate Palace of the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Dec. 2, 2025. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

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Video: First Batch of Epstein Files Provides Few Revelations

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Video: First Batch of Epstein Files Provides Few Revelations

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First Batch of Epstein Files Provides Few Revelations

The Justice Department, under pressure from Congress to comply with a law signed by President Trump, released more than 13,000 files on Friday arising from investigations into Jeffrey Epstein.

Put out the files and stop redacting names that don’t need to be redacted. It’s just — who are we trying to protect? Are we protecting the survivors? Or are we protecting these elite men that need to be put out there?

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The Justice Department, under pressure from Congress to comply with a law signed by President Trump, released more than 13,000 files on Friday arising from investigations into Jeffrey Epstein.

By McKinnon de Kuyper

December 20, 2025

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Apple, Google tell workers on visas to avoid leaving the U.S. amid Trump immigration crackdown

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Apple, Google tell workers on visas to avoid leaving the U.S. amid Trump immigration crackdown

With reported months-long consulate and embassy delays, Google and Apple say employees on H-1B visas should stay put in the U.S. right now to avoid the risk of getting stranded abroad. The latter tech company’s headquarters campus is seen in Mountain View, Calif.

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Apple and Google are warning some U.S-based employees on visas against traveling outside of the country to avoid the risk of getting stuck coming back, as the Trump administration toughens vetting of visa applicants, according to recent internal memos from the tech companies that were reviewed by NPR.

U.S. consulates and embassies have been reporting lengthy, sometimes months-long delays, for visa appointments following new rules from the Department of Homeland Security requiring travelers to undergo a screening of up to five years’ of their social media history — a move criticized by free speech advocates as a privacy invasion.

For Apple and Google, which together employ more than 300,000 employees and rely heavily on highly-skilled foreign workers, the increased vetting and reports of extended delays were enough for the companies to tell some of their staff to stay in the U.S. if they are able to avoid foreign travel.

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“We recommend avoiding international travel at this time as you risk an extended stay outside of the U.S.,” Berry Appleman & Leiden, a law firm that works with Google, wrote to employees.

The law firm Fragomen, which works with Apple, wrote a similar message: “Given the recent updates and the possibility of unpredictable, extended delays when returning to the U.S., we strongly recommend that employees without a valid H-1B visa stamp avoid international travel for now,” the memo read. “If travel cannot be postponed, employees should connect with Apple Immigration and Fragomen in advance to discuss the risks.”

Apple and Google declined to comment on the advisories, which were first reported by Business Insider.

It’s the latest sign of how the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies are affecting the foreign-born workforce in the U.S.

Earlier this year, the White House announced that companies will be subjected to a $100,000 fee for all new H-1B visas, a type of visa popular among tech companies eager to hire highly skilled workers from abroad.

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H-1Bs typically last three years, and applicants have to return to an embassy or consulate in their home country for a renewal, but reports suggest such a routine trip could lead to people being stranded for months as a result of the Trump administration’s new policies.

On Friday, The Washington Post reported that hundreds of visa holders who traveled to India to renew their H-1Bs had their appointments postponed with the State Department explaining that officials needed more time to ensure that no applicants “pose a threat to U.S. national security or public safety.”

At Google, the Alphabet Workers’ Union has been campaigning for additional protections for workers on H-1B visas. Those workers would be particularly vulnerable in the event Google carried out layoffs, since losing employer sponsorship could jeopardize their legal status, said Google software engineer Parul Koul, who leads the union.

The need to support H-1B holders at Google, she said, has “only become more urgent with all the scrutiny and heightened vetting by the Trump administration around the H1B program, and how the administration is coming for all other types of immigrant workers.”

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