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The first trade war with China was a boon for Vietnam — what about now?

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The first trade war with China was a boon for Vietnam — what about now?

When Le Ngoc Tham became sales manager for a new industrial park in northern Vietnam, the goal was to turn it into an easy alternative for manufacturers leaving China to avoid the tariffs of the first U.S.-Sino trade war.

Three years later, with less than half of the 1,716-acre project completed, dozens of companies interested in leasing the land are having second thoughts. The source of hesitation is Trump’s latest tariffs, which, as announced earlier this month, included a 46% tax on imports from Vietnam, the country’s eighth-largest trading partner.

But even though Trump announced a 90-day temporary stay on the new duties on Wednesday, and the administration said late Friday that it would exclude certain electronics from “reciprocal” tariffs, Vietnam isn’t exactly in the clear.

Sales manager Le Ngoc Tram at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

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A 46% tariff rate, which is higher than most other nations, would make Vietnam-made products noncompetitive in the U.S., its largest export market. Both buyers and producers of those goods would likely turn to countries facing lower rates, dragging down industrial activity and foreign investment in Vietnamese manufacturing.

“In the short term, that will be a hit to manufacturers,” said Le, who works for the Amata Corporation, an industrial real estate company based in Thailand. “So the question they ask us is: What are we going to do next?” While the owners of factories that have broken ground here have little recourse, about 40 companies that have inquired about building facilities are hitting pause — one-fifth of which were in the final stages of investment, she said.

Vietnam benefited substantially after Trump imposed tariffs on China in 2018, as companies producing goods for the U.S. there turned to Vietnam. In Quang Ninh province and the neighboring port city of Haiphong, the arrival of high-tech manufacturing, including Apple suppliers Pegatron and Foxconn, contributed to the country’s rapid industrial development and strong economic growth. In 2019, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. surged 35% compared to the previous year.

Now manufacturing accounts for more than one-fifth of Vietnam’s GDP and will be a critical driver in hitting the government’s 8% target rate for 2025. Trump’s protectionist approach to global trade, however, threatens to stymie the boom that powered Vietnam’s economic rise for the last decade.

On April 2, in what Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” the president announced a sweeping 10% on global imports, in addition to what he called “reciprocal tariffs” that targeted countries with large trade deficits with the U.S. Vietnam was one of the hardest hit nations.

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Days after the news, Vietnamese leader To Lam offered to cut its tariffs on American imports to zero if the U.S. did the same. He also asked Trump to delay the taxes by at least 45 days and invited Trump to visit Vietnam.

“If it really gets implemented like this, the impact is dramatic for the economy,” said Matthieu Francois, a partner at Delta West, a Ho Chi Minh City-based advisory firm that helps businesses expand in Vietnam. “This would cancel out the entirety of the growth of Vietnam right now.”

se company Jinko Solar, at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam. Companies with

A factory belonging to Jinko Solar, a Chinese company, at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

On Wednesday, the day that tariffs were meant to take effect, Le’s clients still had little idea what to expect.

At Amata’s facilities, where companies make solar panels, electronics and car parts about 120 miles from China’s borders, workers continued to dig trenches around empty lots in preparation for the installation of utilities. Autoliv, a Swedish auto supplier, tested production lines at its new airbag factory slated to open in October.

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“We are still monitoring the situation and observing the next stage, to have scenarios to protect ourselves,” Le said. “But we will find a way to live with the tariffs.”

Nearly all the goods manufactured at Amata’s industrial park in Quang Ninh are for export, with as much as 70% of them destined for the U.S.

If Trump goes ahead with the tariffs, Le said Vietnam could try to offset the impact by lowering corporate tax rates further, or offering more incentives for companies that invest in local factories.

Production manager Richard Nguyen at Swedish company Autoliv's airbag production facto

Production manager Richard Nguyen at Swedish company Autoliv’s airbag production factory inside Amata Industrial Park, in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

China has retaliated against Trump’s tariffs by raising import duties on U.S. goods to 125%. But Vietnam has taken a more conciliatory approach, even before the latest round of tariffs was announced. The country has proposed increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas and airplanes from the U.S. to mitigate the trade imbalance.

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The Vietnamese government has also supported construction of a $1.5-billion Trump Organization golf resort about an hour’s drive from Hanoi, and recently approved a trial of the Starlink satellite internet service by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

“Vietnam is pragmatic and they’re flexible,” said Rich McClellan, a strategic advisor on policy and economic strategy in Vietnam. “They understand the transactional nature of the current administration in the U.S.”

Vietnam’s manufacturing industry began expanding in earnest in the 2000s, as the country’s low-cost, educated working class grew and the government prioritized producing goods for export. Trump’s 2018 tariffs on Chinese imports prompted manufacturers to seek production bases outside of China, many of them favoring Vietnam for its cheap labor and proximity to China. The shift accelerated when the COVID-19 pandemic caused additional disruptions to the global supply chain.

In a sign of strengthening economic and diplomatic ties, the U.S. and Vietnam established a new bilateral agreement in 2023 that pledged to deepen collaboration on policy and trade, including a $2-million investment from the U.S. in Vietnam’s growing semiconductor sector.

But as Vietnamese manufacturing has boomed, so has the nation’s trade surplus with the U.S., rising fourfold since 2015 to $123.5 billion last year. Trump has accused Vietnam of effectively taxing American goods at 90%.

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“Vietnam is very clear that the development of their country goes hand in hand with economic growth, so they need to take actions to accommodate foreign investors,” said Bruno Jaspaert, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam and chief executive of Deep C Industrial Zones, a Belgian industrial real estate developer. “If they can appease the U.S. and China, which so far they have been able to do, I believe they could come out a winner in these chaotic times.”

The first 21 years after it was established in Haiphong, Deep C attracted $1 billion in investment, Jaspaert said. In the past seven years, it’s attracted $7 billion.

Deep C General Sales and Marketing Director Koen Soenens poses for a portrait at his office

Deep C general sales and marketing director Koen Soenens in his office in Haiphong in northeastern Vietnam.

When Koen Soenens joined Deep C in 2019, his orientation included a presentation with a photo of Trump, whose tariffs had become the impetus for more factories to invest in Vietnam. “The story behind that picture was actually very straightforward. He was at that time our best salesperson,” the company’s general sales and marketing director explained.

Six years later, that image is just as relevant to understanding the industry, but its significance has changed, he said: “[Trump] is the one who is backstabbing Vietnam.”

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Since the tariffs on Vietnam were announced, Soenens has watched company executives react with devastation, disappointment and as of Thursday, hope. The three-month reprieve could give manufacturers time to reduce reliance on exports to the U.S. and assess the possibility of building factories in countries with lower tariff rates while Vietnam negotiates with the U.S.

An airbag production factory run by Swedish company Autoliv, at Amata Industrial Park in Quan

An airbag production factory run by Swedish company Autoliv, at Amata Industrial Park in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

If the reciprocal tariffs take effect at the proposed rate, Vietnam will face the third-highest U.S. import duties in the world, after China and Cambodia. Trump postponed the 49% import duty on Cambodian goods Wednesday, but increased tariffs on China to 145%.

“It’s never going to go back to what it was before, that’s very obvious,” Soenens said. “The relocation from China to elsewhere continues, and then it will be a fight between Vietnam and some of the other countries.”

The rush to build factories in Vietnam has strained the country’s labor supply in recent years. For factories that need more than 100,000 workers, Vietnam is no longer an option, he added.

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A slowdown in foreign investment could ease that strain and free up more resources, benefiting Vietnam-based manufacturers that aren’t subject to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. For example, Soenens said auto parts manufacturers here are only subject to a global 25% tariff on exports to the U.S. He added that one Tesla supplier was optimistic the reciprocal tariffs could make local hiring easier for the company.

Another constraint in Vietnam’s industrial development is the country’s power grid, Soenens said, and its lag in accommodating renewable energy.

Tariffs aside, such bottlenecks threaten to derail Vietnam’s economic growth if left unresolved, said Francois of Delta West.

“It’s very likely the dominant theme of Vietnam going forward will be how to be more efficient, more productive,” Francois said. “This is the single focus of the Vietnamese strategy to keep growing.”

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How bits of Apple history can be yours

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How bits of Apple history can be yours

In March 1976, Apple cofounders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak both signed a $500 check weeks before the official creation of a California company that would transform personal computing and become a global powerhouse.

Now that historic Wells Fargo check could be sold for $500,000 at an auction that ends on Jan. 29. The sale, run by RR Auction, includes some of Apple’s early items and childhood belongings of Jobs, Apple’s cofounder and chief executive, who died in 2011 at 56, after battling pancreatic cancer.

Since its founding, the Cupertino tech giant has attracted millions of fans who buy its laptops, smartphones, headphones and smart watches. The auction gives the adoring public a chance to own part of the company’s history ahead of Apple’s 50th anniversary in April.

Apple’s first check from March 1976 predates the company’s official founding in April 1976. It also includes the signatures of Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak.

(RR Auction)

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“Without a doubt, check number one is the most important piece of paper in Apple’s history,” said Corey Cohen, a computer historian and Apple-1 expert, in a video about the item. At the time, Apple’s cofounders, he added, were “putting everything on the line.”

Cohen said he’s known of a governor, entrepreneurs, award-winning filmmakers and musicians who own rare Apple collectibles. Jobs is a “cult of personality,” and people collect items tied to the tech mogul.

“This is a very important collection that’s being sold because there are a lot of personal items, a lot of things that weren’t generally available to the public before, because these things are coming right out of Jobs’ home,” he said in an interview.

RR Auction said it couldn’t share the names of the consignors on the check and some of the other auction items.

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As of Monday, bids on the check surpassed $200,000. Jobs typically didn’t sign autographs, so owning a document bearing his signature is rare.

Other items up for auction include Apple’s March 1976 Wells Fargo account statement — the company’s first financial document — and an Apple-1 computer prototype board used to validate Apple’s first computer.

The auction features a variety of memorabilia, including vintage Apple posters, Apple rainbow glasses, letters, magazines, older Apple computers, and other historic items.

Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Some of Jobs’ personal items came from his stepbrother, John Chovanec, who had preserved them for decades.

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The items provide “a rare view” into Jobs’ “private world and formative years outside Apple’s corporate narrative,” a news release about the auction said.

Jobs’ bedroom desk from his family’s Los Altos home, which housed a garage where Apple-1 computers were put together, is also up for sale.

Papers from Jobs’ years before Apple are inside the desk and the highest bid on that item has surpassed $44,000.

An auction celebrating Apple's upcoming 50th anniversary includes late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs' belongings.

A bedroom desk that belonged to late Apple cofounder Steve Jobs provides a glimpse into his early years before he created the tech company.

(RR Auction)

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Bids on an Apple business card on which Jobs writes “Hi, I’m back” in black ink to his father reached more than $22,200. The card features Apple’s colorful logo alongside Jobs’ title as chairman, a role he returned to in 2011, according to the auction site.

Other items include 8-track tapes that featured music from artists such as Bob Dylan. Bids on a 1977 vintage poster featuring a red Apple that hung in Jobs family’s living room top $16,600, the auction site shows.

While Jobs is known for donning a black turtleneck, he also wore bow ties during high school and at Apple’s early events.

An auction to celebrate Apple's upcoming 50th anniversary includes bow ties worn by late Apple cofounder Steve Jobs.

A collection of bow ties that belonged to late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.

(RR Auction)

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Some of Jobs’ bow ties have sold for thousands of dollars at other auctions.

Last year, a pink-and-green striped bow tie he wore when introducing the Macintosh computer in 1984 sold for more than $35,000 at a Julien’s Auctions event that highlighted technology and history.

The items on RR Auction feature colorful clip-on bow ties from Jobs’ bedroom closet.

“This brief fashion phase contrasted sharply with the minimalist black turtleneck and jeans that would later define his public image,” a description of the item states. “The shift reflected Jobs’ evolution from an ambitious young innovator to a visionary with a distinct and enduring personal brand.”

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Defiant independence from the Federal Reserve catches Trump off guard

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Defiant independence from the Federal Reserve catches Trump off guard

White House officials were caught by surprise when a post appeared Sunday night on the Federal Reserve’s official social media channel, with Jerome Powell, its chairman, delivering a plain and clear message.

President Trump was not only weaponizing the Justice Department to intimidate him, Powell said to the camera, standing before an American flag. This time, he added, it wasn’t going to work.

The lack of any warning for officials in the West Wing, confirmed to The Times, was yet another exertion of independence from a Fed chair whose stern resistance to presidential pressure has made him an outlier in Trump’s Washington.

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Powell was responding to grand jury subpoenas delivered to the Fed on Friday related to his congressional testimony over the summer regarding construction work at the Reserve.

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” Powell said.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions,” he added, “or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

For months, Trump and his aides have harshly criticized Powell for his decision-making on interest rates, which the president believes should be dropped faster. On various occasions, Trump has threatened to fire Powell — a move that legal experts, and Powell himself, have said would be illegal — before pulling back.

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The Trump administration is currently arguing before the Supreme Court that the president should have the ability to fire the heads of independent agencies at will, despite prior rulings from the high court underscoring the unique independence of the central bank.

The decision by the Justice Department to subpoena the Fed over the construction — a $2.5-billion project to overhaul two Fed buildings, operating unrenovated since the 1930s — comes at a critical juncture for the U.S. economy, which has been issuing conflicting signals over its health.

Employers added only 50,000 jobs last month, fewer than in November, even as the unemployment rate dipped a tenth of a point to 4.4%, for its first decline since June. The figures indicate that businesses aren’t hiring much despite inflation slowing down and growth picking up.

The government reported last month that inflation dropped to an annual rate of 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September, while economic growth rose unexpectedly to an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter.

However, the long government shutdown interrupted data collection, lending doubt to the numbers. At the same time, there is uncertainty about the legality of $150 billion or more in tariffs imposed on China and dozens of countries through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which has been challenged and is under review by the Supreme Court.

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As inflation has cooled, the Fed under Powell has incrementally cut the federal funds rate, the target interest rate at which banks lend to one another and the bank’s primary tool for influencing inflation and growth. The Fed held the rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% through August, before a series of fall cuts left it at 3.5% to 3.75%.

That hasn’t been enough for Trump, who has called for the rate to be lowered faster and to a nearly rock bottom 1%. The last time the central bank dropped the rate so low was in the dark days of the early pandemic in March 2020. It began raising rates in 2022 as inflation took off and proved stubborn despite the bank’s efforts to rein it in.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said there is room to continue lowering the federal funds rate to 3%, where it should be in a “well functioning economy, neither supporting or restraining growth.”

However, muscling the Fed to lower rates and reduce or destroy its independence is another matter.

“There’s no upside to that. It’s all downside, different shades of gray and black, depending on how things unfold,” he said. “It ends in higher inflation and ultimately a much diminished economy and potentially a financial crisis.”

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Zandi said much will hinge on the Supreme Court’s decision on whether Trump can remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which he sought to do last year, citing allegations of mortgage fraud she denies.

While Powell’s term as chairman ends in May, his term as a governor — influencing interest-rate decisions — extends to January 2028. A criminal indictment over the construction project could provide Trump the legal justification he needs to remove him altogether.

“When he steps down in May, will he stay on the board or does he leave? That will make a difference,” Zandi said.

A key issue will be how much independence the Fed retains, he said, given the central bank’s role in establishing the U.S. as a safe haven for international bond investors who play a key role funding the federal deficit.

The investors rely on the bank to keep inflation under control, or they will demand the government pay more for its long term bonds — though the subpoenas had little effect so far Monday on bond prices.

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“There are scenarios where the bond market says, ‘Oh my gosh, we’re going to see much higher inflation, and there’s a bond sell-off and a spike in long-term rates,” he said. “That’s a crisis.”

Zandi said that even if the worst-case scenarios don’t play out, it will take time for the Federal Reserve to reestablish its reputation as an independent bank not influenced by politics.

“I’m not sure investors will ever forget this,” he said. “Most importantly, it depends on who Trump nominates to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve — and how that person views his or her job.”

Lawmakers from both parties have questioned the motivation behind the investigation.

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican member of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, has said he plans to oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed until the legal matter is “fully resolved.”

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“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none,” Tillis wrote in a social media post.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on that committee, accused Trump of trying to “install another sock puppet to complete his corrupt takeover of America’s central bank.”

“Trump is abusing the authorities of the Department of Justice like a wannabe dictator so the Fed serves his interests, along with his billionaire friends,” Warren said in a statement.

Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, also expressed skepticism about the inquiry, which he characterized as an “unnecessary distraction.”

“The Federal Reserve is led by strong, capable individuals appointed by President Trump, and this action could undermine this and future Administrations’ ability to make sound monetary public decisions,” Hill wrote in a statement.

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As Hill raised concerns about the investigation, he added he personally knew Powell to be a “person of the highest integrity.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), meanwhile, dismissed the idea that the Justice Department was being weaponized against Powell. When asked by a reporter if he thought that was the case, he said: “Of course not.”

Times staff writers Wilner and Ceballos reported from Washington and Darmiento from Los Angeles.

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Mattel introduces its first Barbie with autism, headphones on and fidget spinner in hand

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Mattel introduces its first Barbie with autism, headphones on and fidget spinner in hand

Mattel is releasing its first autistic Barbie doll.

Created in partnership with the Autistic Self Advocacy Network (ASAN), the toy launched Monday is meant to represent children with autism spectrum disorder and how they experience the world.

The doll joins the Barbie Fashionistas line, which features more than 175 looks across various skin tones, body types and disabilities.

Previous additions include Barbie dolls with Type 1 diabetes, Down syndrome and blindness.

The Barbie with autism was in development for more than 18 months. ASAN, the nonprofit disability rights organization run by and for the autistic community, provided guidance as to how the doll can most accurately represent the various experiences people on the autism spectrum may relate to and celebrate the community.

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The toy features elbow and wrist articulation, which allows for stimming and other gestures. Her eyes are shifted to the side to avoid eye contact.

She carries a fidget spinner and a tablet. She also wears noise-canceling headphones and a loose-fitting dress that allows for less fabric-to-skin contact.

To celebrate the new doll, Mattel is donating more than 1,000 autistic Barbies to pediatric hospitals across the country that offer specialized services for children on the spectrum. According to the autism nonprofit, Autism Speaks, one in 31 children and one in 45 adults in the U.S. has autism.

“Barbie has always strived to reflect the world kids see and the possibilities they imagine, and we’re proud to introduce our first autistic Barbie as part of that ongoing work,” said Jamie Cygielman, global head of dolls at Mattel, in a press release.

She added that the doll “helps to expand what inclusion looks like in the toy aisle and beyond because every child deserves to see themselves in Barbie.”

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The toymaker’s investments in diversity and representation have proved commercially successful.

The Fashionistas line launched in 2009 and has provided the opportunity to create dolls beyond Barbie’s original look. In 2024, the most popular Fashionistas dolls globally included the blind Barbie and the Barbie with Down syndrome. The wheelchair-using doll has also consistently been a top performer since its debut in 2019.

Founded in 1945, Mattel started out of a Los Angeles garage. Over the last 80 years, the El Segundo-based company cemented itself as a multibillion-dollar toy company with products and brands like Fisher-Price, Hot Wheels cars and American Girl.

The new autistic Barbie is available starting Monday through Mattel Shop and retailers nationwide.

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