World
A weakened Iran has Iraq looking to curb Tehran-backed extremists in country
With Iranian influence waning in the Middle East, the Iraqi government wants armed groups, including factions within the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), to lay down their arms and join the state security forces or integrate into the state-recognized Popular Mobilization Forces.
Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, recently told Reuters that armed groups operating inside Iraq and outside state control are unacceptable.
“Many political leaders, many political parties started to raise a discussion, and I hope that we can convince the leaders of these groups to lay down their arms, and then to be part of the armed forces under the responsibility of the government,” Hussein told Reuters.
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There is also fear around the region, with the power vacuum left by the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and a decimated Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, that Iraq may be next to fall.
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the collapse of the Assad regime was the precipitating moment for the Iraqi government to make its move against Iranian militias.
An Iraqi flag is flown at a protest. (AP Photo/Anmar Khalil)
“Right now, the Iraqis are wondering if they are next and everyone is fearful of the toxic influence and corrosive nature of Iranian influence in the state,” Schanzer said.
Foreign Minister Hussein told Reuters that he does not think Iraq is the next domino to fall.
The IRI is a group of armed Islamic resistance factions under the umbrella of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.” These groups are the most difficult for the Iraqi government to manage and were responsible for the attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan in January 2024. The IRI is aligned with Iran and has been engaging in armed operations against Israel and U.S. coalition forces since Oct. 7.
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Also operating in Iraq are the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF was formed in 2014 after Iraq’s Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, called for Iraqis to rise up and fight against the Islamic State. Tehran sent IRGC advisers, weapons and other military support to the PMF to combat ISIS, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency.
The PMF are formally recognized as an official part of the Iraqi state security forces and report directly to the prime minister.
Mourners chant slogans against the U.S. during the funeral of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iran-backed militias in Iraq known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, in the shrine of Imam Hussein in Karbala, Iraq, on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed)
“Current discussions revolve around how to effectively manage the so-called Islamic Resistance factions, some of which have gained media prominence since Oct. 7 while conducting armed operations under the label of Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” Inna Rudolf, who studied the PMF at King’s College London, told Fox News Digital.
Many of these resistance factions, Rudolf said, have also registered brigades within the state-recognized PMF umbrella.
“The question for decision-makers remains how to neutralize these elements and mitigate the risk of dragging both the PMF and the Iraqi state into a poorly timed geopolitical escalation,” Rudolf said.
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Rudolf pointed out that although Iranian proxies have been significantly weakened since Oct. 7, pressure has intensified in light of reports suggesting Israel could retaliate against Iranian groups inside Iraq.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a ceremony in Baghdad, Iraq, on Jan. 9, 2024.
Many observers of the region think Iraq’s attempt to rein in armed factions at this moment is a sign of Iran’s diminished position in the region.
“The fact that major security sector reform in respect to the Popular Mobilization Forces is being conducted at this time is representative of Iran’s weakened role in the country and an imperative amongst more moderate forces, as well as the U.S., to seize on this and create momentum,” Caroline Rose, a senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuums Program at the New Lines Institute, told Fox News Digital.
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Elections in Iraq are scheduled for this fall, and Prime Minister Sudani is attempting to negotiate an acceptable form of bilateral security cooperation with the U.S., including the status of U.S. forces inside the country. The U.S. currently has about 2,500 troops serving in Iraq as part of the anti-ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve effort.
Observers of the region agreed that if Iraq is unable to demonstrate its ability to rein in rogue groups conducting armed operations against the prime minister, sustaining security cooperation with the United States, especially under President Donald Trump, could be impossible.
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Investors brace for a bigger backlash from Middle East war
World
Tel Aviv analyst shelters from 30 missile sirens in 48 hours, says Iran ‘won’t recover’
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The past 48 hours in Tel Aviv have been unlike anything seen before, a leading security analyst has said, as sirens blared amid missile threats following Operation Epic Fury and U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran.
“We are facing a biblical event — nothing less,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital, speaking from his shelter in the city.
Like many Israelis, Michael said he had spent hours in reinforced rooms during the ongoing barrage, adding that he was “very experienced in this.”
“But this all requires time and determination, and I do hope that Trump will also have them both,” he said, speaking shortly after the president released a video message stating that the military operation would continue “until all of our objectives are achieved.”
Explosions from projectile interceptions by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system over Tel Aviv. (JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images)
“Trump is the only one who can make the change — and that change will impact the entire region and the international order for years to come,” Michael added.
As of Sunday, Tel Aviv remained under a state of emergency following Iranian missile attacks that caused casualties and widespread damage.
According to The Associated Press, Iranian missile and drone strikes have killed approximately 11 Israeli civilians and wounded dozens more in retaliation for the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.
Shrapnel from missile impacts damaged at least 40 buildings in Tel Aviv, and authorities reported at least one death in the area from falling debris.
The Philippine Embassy in Israel confirmed the death of a Filipino national after a missile strike hit Tel Aviv on Saturday.
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People take shelter as Iran launched missiles and drones towards Israel following the US-Israeli attacks. ( Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“We enter our shelter once the siren is heard and stay there until the Home Front Command announces that we can leave,” Michael said.
“Usually, it is about 20 to 30 minutes — unless there are further sirens during our stay. Since yesterday morning, it has happened around 30 times.”
Israel’s President Isaac Herzog also visited an impact site in Tel Aviv Sunday, delivering a message of resilience.
“The people of Israel and the people of Iran can live in peace. The region can live in peace. But what undermines peace time and again is terror instigated by this Iranian regime,” Herzog said.
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Israeli emergency service officer walks past building debris at the scene of a Iranian missile attack. (Ahmad GHARABLI / AFP via Getty Images)
Following the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and roughly 40 senior Iranian officials, Iran formed a provisional leadership council.
Iran named Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i to lead roles.
“The Supreme Leader did not complete the necessary groundwork regarding his own succession,” Michael added.
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“Pezeshkian will face very troubling challenges due to their heavy losses, severe disruptions to control and command systems, and the massive bombing and attacks across Iran, including Tehran,” he said.
“Even if this regime doesn’t collapse, it will never be able to reconstitute itself, recover or return to its previous position,” Michael added.
World
Israel FM says Europe too divided, slams Spanish PM
Israeli minister Gideon Sa’ar said Europe “does not have unified position” on what role it should play in Iran as European ministers sought to establish a joint approach Sunday.
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As Israel and the United States conducted a joint military strike on Iran, leading to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Europe was kept on the sidelines.
EU member states did not participate in the operation and, in some cases, they were not informed prior as it is customary among strategic allies.
Asked whether Israel sought to keep Europe on the margins, Sa’ar said internal divisions within EU member states had kept them out of critical exchanges of operational details, unlike the United States, which the minister described as his country’s greatest ally.
“In Europe, you have all kinds of approaches,” he told Euronews. “You have countries like the Czech Republic which is strongly supporting this operation and then you have Spain, which is standing with all the tyrants of the world.”
On Saturday, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez was among the most critical voices in Europe, suggesting the US-Israeli strikes on Iran risk plunging the region into total war.
“We reject the unilateral military action of the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” Sánchez said Saturday. The Spanish PM reiterated that message on Sunday.
“We urge for de-escalation and call to respect international law in all conflicts,” Sánchez added. “You can be against a heinous regime, like the Iranian regime, while also rejecting a military intervention that is unjustified, dangerous and outside of international law.”
Sa’aar said Israel considers the operation “fully justified” citing the right to self-defense from a regime that “has called for the destruction of Israel” and lashed at the Spanish prime minister for sending an “anti-Israeli, anti-American message.”
“Read the statement, they are standing with Iran!” he added.
When asked if any of his European counterparts had manifested an interest in joining the military operation or provide support on the ground, Sa’ar said he held multiple exchanges with European ministers over the weekend and suggested that “if others want to join, they will know have to convey the message.”
On Sunday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared to back regime change in Iran in line with Israel and the US, saying that the “risk of further escalation is real. This is why a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed” in comments on Sunday.
Sa’ar told Euronews said the strategic strikes and the elimination of Khamenei alongside top regime commanders could “create the conditions to weaken the regime enough to allow the Iranians to take their future into their own hands”.
“The future leadership of Iran should be determined by the Iranian people through free elections. Our only requirement is that whoever comes to power in Iran must not pursue the destruction of Israel,” he said.
Watch the full interview on Euronews from 8pm CET
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