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Economists trim Fed rate cut estimates on fear of Trump inflation surge

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Economists trim Fed rate cut estimates on fear of Trump inflation surge

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The Federal Reserve is set to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts on fears that the Trump administration’s policies will stoke higher inflation, according to academic economists polled by the Financial Times. 

The economists, who were surveyed between December 11 and 13, moved up their forecasts for the federal funds rate next year compared to the previous FT-Chicago Booth poll in September. The vast majority thought it would hover at 3.5 per cent or higher by the end of 2025, whereas most respondents in September said it would probably fall below 3.5 per cent by that point.

If the Fed follows through with a quarter-point cut at its meeting next week as expected the policy rate will stand at 4.25-4.5 per cent.

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“Over the last few months, the downside risks to the labour market have become a little less bad and progress on inflation seems to have stalled a bit,” said Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist now at Johns Hopkins University, who helped to design the survey.

“Inflation has come down more painlessly than I and most people had expected, but I think we may still be seeing that the last bit [getting to target] will be a little harder, and so that certainly is an unlikely environment for the Fed to be in a hurry to reduce rates,” said Wright.

Tara Sinclair, who previously worked at the Treasury department and is now a professor at George Washington University, said that could even translate to the Fed going on an extended pause after a December cut and holding interest rates steady for the remainder of next year.

“In my mind, they need to stay in restrictive territory all the way until it’s clear that inflation is back at their target,” she added.

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Officials are plotting how quickly to get to a “neutral” policy rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses growth. They have openly discussed slowing the pace of cuts once they get closer to that level, although chair Jay Powell has conceded that policymakers lack clarity as to where that is.

“We’re pretty sure it’s below where we are now,” he told reporters in November.

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Looming large over the policy outlook is the return of Donald Trump to the White House next month. Trump has vowed to enact sweeping tariffs and deport millions of Americans while also slashing taxes and regulations.

Just over 60 per cent of the economists polled in the survey, which was conducted in partnership with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, thought Trump’s plans would have a negative impact on US growth. Most are also bracing for higher inflation if his plans to enact universal tariffs and steep levies on China materialise.

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These concerns are percolating at a time when worries about price pressures still linger.

Just over 80 per cent of the 47 economists polled said that inflation over the next year, as measured by the personal expenditures price index once food and energy prices are stripped out, would not dip below 2 per cent until January 2026 or later. In September, only about 35 per cent of polled respondents made the same estimate.

The median estimate of core PCE inflation over the next 12 months also rose to 2.5 per cent from 2.2 per cent compared to September’s survey.

Economists remained sanguine about the outlook for the economy, with the median estimate of real GDP growth rising to 2.3 per cent from 2 per cent in September. Concerns about a recession were also distant, with over half of respondents estimating that the next recession would start no earlier than the third quarter of 2026.

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Yet over a longer horizon, Sinclair warned that Trump’s policies would start to bite.

“I think very clearly in the long run this combination of policies is not good,” she said.

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The Fed may also struggle with how to navigate this period, the economists warned, with one bracing for a “confrontation” between the president-elect and Powell if the central bank is forced to keep rates elevated to counteract the impact of Trump’s policies.

Wright said the Fed would be “more twitchy” on inflation than in the past, given the post-pandemic surge in price pressures.

“Back in 2019, the Fed could afford to take a view of ‘we’re going to wait until we see the white of inflation’s eyes’”, he said. “I don’t think that’s the attitude that the Fed is going to have today.”

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

A Waymo robotaxi drives in San Francisco’s North Beach neighborhood this week.

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Police in San Mateo, Calif., posted Monday on social media that they had apprehended a pair of teenagers from a Waymo driverless robotaxi after the company alerted authorities to suspected criminal activity. It’s the latest incident involving video surveillance of passengers and others by autonomous vehicles — raising questions about the limits of privacy in such vehicles.

The Facebook post by the San Mateo County Police said: “Parents do you know where your teens are? @waymo does!”

The 15-year-olds were allegedly drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns from the car, according to the police. They said Waymo’s systems detected behavior that then triggered a safety response, after which the company disabled the vehicle and contacted police.

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Waymo’s cars, equipped with an array of cameras, microphones and other sensors to monitor passengers and other nearby vehicles, are becoming more common in cities across the United States. Experts say the detention of the two teens in San Mateo highlights a potential — but not inevitable — trade-off between privacy and convenience. It also questions the extent to which companies similar to Waymo are required to hand over private data, including audio and video of passengers, in situations where a crime is suspected.

NPR reached out to Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, for comment on the details of the San Mateo incident and how the company responded, but did not hear back. But on its website, the company says that as many as 29 cameras in its autonomous cars provide an all-around view and “are designed with high dynamic range and thermal stability, to see in both daylight and low-light conditions, and tackle more complex environments.”

“There already exist laws that govern duty to report or even duty to protect” for carriers such as Waymo, according to Alessandro Acquisti, a professor of information technology at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “The privacy problems arise when and if driverless carrier companies used such laws or ethical obligations as a pretext for blanket, indiscriminate accumulation of identifiable data for unspecified future purposes.”

That includes not just monitoring people inside the cars, but outside too. Take, for example, a hit-and-run investigation last year in Los Angeles. Media reported that the police inquiry was aided by video captured by a Waymo taxi that had a clear view of the crime. Critics suggested at the time that authorities were using the company’s vehicles as a mobile surveillance platform. And during 2025 protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns, demonstrators vandalized Waymos, apparently angry that video recorded by the vehicles could be used by police, although there is no evidence that happened.

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Trump fires last members of election commission, inciting fears of midterm ‘chaos’

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Trump fires last members of election commission, inciting fears of midterm ‘chaos’

Donald Trump has terminated the remaining members of the independent, federal commission that assists election administration officials nationwide just a few months before the midterm elections, multiple outlets reported Thursday.

The remaining three commissioners of the four-member bipartisan commission ⁠were forced out on Thursday in different ways. The one Republican appointee resigned and the other ⁠two, Democratic appointees were notified of their terminations via email from ​the White House presidential personnel office.

“On ‌behalf of President ‌Donald J Trump, I am writing to inform you that your position ‌as Commissioner of the Election Assistance Commission is terminated, effective immediately. Thank you for your service,” the email, seen by Reuters, said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Election Assistance Commission serves as a “national clearinghouse of information on election ‌administration”, accredits testing laboratories and certifies voting systems, and maintains the national mail-voter registration form developed by the National ​Voter Registration Act of 1993, according to the commission’s website. The terminations follow Trump and top administration officials’ advocacy to change vote-by-mail requirements and investigations into the 2020 election outcome, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

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“It is ⁠irresponsible and dangerous that this Administration remains dead set on ​causing chaos for ​our election officials across this ​country,” Arizona secretary of state Adrian Fontes said in a ​Thursday statement. “This ‌move undermines the integrity ​of nonpartisan ​election administration.”

The 2002 law that established the commission, the Help America Vote Act, states the president can appoint replacements to the commission.

It is unclear how Trump will move ahead with the commission.

Reuters contributed reporting

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Former Olympian pleads not guilty in reflecting pool vandalism charges

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Former Olympian pleads not guilty in reflecting pool vandalism charges

Former U.S. Olympian David Hearn (left) walks with his attorney Norman Eisen to speak to reporters and protesters gathered after his arraignment at the Superior Court of the District of Columbia in Washington, D.C. on Thursday.

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Former U.S. Olympic canoeist David Hearn pleaded not guilty to damaging the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in D.C. Superior Court Thursday morning.

Federal prosecutors charged Hearn with a single count of destruction of property causing more than $1,000 in damage to the pool.

Hearn has previously claimed, which his attorneys repeated during a short press conference outside the court, that he simply touched the water in the pool out of curiosity.

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The Trump administration had just completed a $14 million renovation of the pool.

But shortly after the work finished, peeling paint and algae gathered in the water. The remodel has been largely criticized as a massive failure and waste of taxpayer dollars.

Superior Court Judge Carmen McLean released Hearn on his own recognizance. His next hearing is scheduled for Aug. 5.

Norm Eisen, one of Hearn’s attorneys, spoke to reporters outside of court following the hearing. He said the administration is using Hearn as a “scapegoat … for their own failures.”

“It is not a crime to touch the reflecting pool, to touch water in the United States of America,” he said.

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Prosecutors say there is a host of evidence against Hearn.

This is a developing story.

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