The Miami Hurricanes aren’t making it to the College Football Playoff. How?

Miami lost to Syracuse on Saturday to miss out on the ACC championship game. The loss hurt in more ways than one, as now the Hurricanes are looking up at Alabama in the latest CFP rankings, even though the ‘Canes have two losses while the Crimson Tide have three.

“Winning 10 games is exponentially harder than winning nine,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said on The Audible podcast. “This whole, ‘This conference is better than that conference,’ some of the teams are, but not all the teams are. Never once were we in a blowout loss against a .500 team.”

Yes, Alabama did lose bad to a .500 team, and just a few weeks ago. But there are good reasons why Miami will be preparing for a bowl game instead of waiting to hear its place in the CFP bracket on Selection Sunday. We stated the case for Miami; now here’s the rebuttal.

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Miami fell to No. 12 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings update, and because the Big 12 champion (either No. 15 Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State) must be included in the 12-team field, the Hurricanes are on the outside looking in. Without another game before the final bracket is unveiled, Miami won’t be able to earn their way back into the mix.

Why Miami didn’t make College Football Playoff

Miami been in the CFP field since the rankings made their debut Nov. 5. Meanwhile, Alabama fell out of the field two weeks ago. So how did the Crimson Tide leapfrog the Hurricanes to still have a shot at the playoff?

Late losses to unranked Georgia Tech and Syracuse

Miami was looking good all season despite a relatively weak strength of schedule because they did the most important thing: win. The Hurricanes’ 9-0 start included some near slip-ups. They had a Hail Mary overturned against Virginia Tech. They rallied from 25 down to beat Cal. The Duke and Wake Forest wins were closer than the final score would indicate.

UM couldn’t flirt with disaster all season, and its two losses came in November, the worst possible time because of the flaws of recent memory. Georgia Tech gave rival Georgia a run for their money and had the 14th toughest schedule, but they did finish 7-5. The Yellow Jackets had a middle-of-the-road defense (ninth in the ACC, a shade worse than Miami’s) but held Cam Ward and the No. 1 offense in the nation to 23 points.

Losing to 9-3 Syracuse is more defensible, but it really didn’t help the narrative around the defense. Speaking of which …

Cam Ward can’t make up for porous Miami defense

The Hurricanes have a host of NFL talent on defense, leading with star pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. But since the start of conference play, they have struggled to let Cam Ward and the No. 1 offense in the nation run away with games. Even worse, they seemed incapable of adjusting throughout the season to limit the damage.

Louisville, Virginia Tech and Cal had their third-highest output of the season in their losses to Miami. Syracuse and Duke put up their second-most points of the season against the ‘Canes. That’s more than half of their conference schedule. Who knows how much SMU and Clemson (the No. 5 and 14 scoring offenses in the country, respectively) would have hung up on UM in a hypothetical ACC championship game?

In the four games mentioned above that resulted in Miami wins, Ward had some of his biggest games of his Heisman-caliber season: He has 105 of 164 (64%) for 1,499 yards and 15 touchdowns against just four interceptions in those shootout wins. When he was merely good (50 of 75 for 697 yards and five TDs), it wasn’t enough.

Alabama has SEC influence

The SEC is regarded as the best conference in college football, and for the most part, it lives up to that hype. But aside from the extra loss, the Crimson Tide have a huge blemish against them: their 24-3 loss at 6-6 Oklahoma on Nov. 23. The Sooners weren’t competitive in most of their conference schedule this year, and they struggled to beat a terrible Houston team early in the season.

But playing in the SEC gave Alabama plenty of opportunities to prove its mettle. Its signature win over Georgia and the narrow victory over South Carolina stand out, but so do the combined 76-13 shellackings the Crimson Tide put on Missouri and LSU. Showing out against so-so teams made it easier for the CFP committee to overlook that Oklahoma slip-up. Bama also lost at CFP shoo-in Tennessee by only a touchdown, and losing at Vanderbilt didn’t look as bad after Texas nearly met the same fate.

Miami handily beat its only SEC opponent this season, winning 41-17 to open the season at Florida. But that was when the Gators were starting Graham Mertz at quarterback: Freshman star DJ Lagway made his debut well after the game was decided. The Hurricanes didn’t have the high-ranking ACC teams (SMU and Clemson) on their schedule, and they lost to the only other team in the current CFP rankings (Syracuse). That’s not Miami’s fault, but it also doesn’t help their case.

• Date: Sunday, December 8
• Time: Noon ET

The final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed starting at noon on Sunday, Dec. 8.

How to watch CFP bracket reveal

• TV channel: ESPN
• Live stream: ESPN+ | Fubo

The College Football Playoff bracket will be revealed on ESPN. Streaming options include ESPN+ and Fubo.

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