From November 12 to December 17, it will be NBA Cup season.

The in-season tournament begins with group play, where 30 teams are divided into six groups (three from each conference). Each team plays four games—two at home and two on the road. The best teams from each group, plus two wild cards, advance to the knockout rounds, culminating in a final held in Las Vegas.

The Atlanta Hawks are in Group C of the Eastern Conference groups and play the following group stage games:
a) Boston Celtics on November 12
b) Washington Wizards on November 15
c) Chicago Bulls on November 22
d) Cleveland Cavaliers on November 29

At the moment, it’s impossible to project who the Hawks will play in the knockout rounds or assume that they will make it that far. However, Atlanta has one of the toughest draws in the group stage. Both the Celtics and Cavaliers stand out as particularly imposing matchups while the Bulls and Wizards cannot be discounted. The unbeatean Cavaliers are currently leading the East with a 11-0 record. On offense, they have a stellar 123.6 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the NBA) and lead the NBA in effective field goal % per Cleaning the Glass. On defense, they are similarly impressive, only giving up 109.8 points per 100 possessions (5th best in NBA) and ranking third in turnover percentage forced. The Celtics are the reigining NBA champions and are second in the Eastern Conference with an 8-2 record. The stats and games back up the idea that they are well-positioned for another title run. The Hawks saw exactly how dominant Boston is in their last meeting, where the Celtics ran them off the court in a 123-93 beatdown.

The Bulls just got a 125-113 win over Atlanta. Even though it was largely due to the Hawks’ own miscues in a blown fourth quarter, it is hard to count out Chicago. They are a strong shooting team and can shoot teams out of games in any given matchup. Washington is one of the worst teams in the league, but Bilal Coulibaly powered them to an unlikely win over the Hawks as recently as October 30th. Atlanta can credibly be taken down by the group stage, but it does not mean they have no chance of making it to the knockout stage. If they do make it to the knockout stage, here are three reasons why that shouldn’t be a surprise.

Unless otherwise mentioned, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference.

Trae Young *Should* Turn In A Superstar Showing

Young is obviously the most critical player to the Hawks’ chances of success, but he has gone through his fair share of struggles to open the season. He is currently shooting a career-worst 39% from the field and a dismal 33% from three-point range. It should be noted that he is shooting the second-most threes per game of his career at 9.3, which is certainly worsening his efficiency. However, it cannot be discounted that Young’s shot is not falling at the moment.

To be clear, he is still an excellent playmaker. He is averaging a career-best 11.5 assists – albeit on 4.5 turnovers a game – and has played a crucial role in Jalen Johnson taking another step this year. That will not be enough to power the Hawks over teams like the Cavaliers and Celtics. Every defense keys in on stopping Young, but he has not been able to torch those coverages as a scorer. If the Hawks can get Bogdan Bogdanovic or Kobe Bufkin back to take some pressure off of Young, it would certainly be better for his numbers as he is on pace to record a career-high 36.5 minutes per game. Still, as things stand, Young’s efficiency as a scorer has largely not shown up for the Hawks.

I’d expect things to be better during the group stage games. In pressure situations, Young has shown the ability to elevate his game when healthy. The continued development of Risacher should also take some pressure off of Young.

Risacher on the Rise

It’s hard to watch the first few games of Zaccharie Risacher and not be excited about what his future could entail. Although he has not been altogether consistent so far, Risacher showed a flash of his potential with his 33 points, seven boards, three rebounds and three steals against the Knicks. He has also made consistently good progress as a defender and his free throw shooting numbers are indication of a strong shooting baseline. He is only shooting 65.7% from the charity stripe, but closer inspection reveals that he has largely been fine at the line outside of his game against the Knicks. He missed four free throws during that game, which pulls his numbers down severely.

Teams are going to largely ignore Risacher in favor of funneling their defense in on Johnson and Young. The Knicks had plenty of capable defenders to throw on Risacher and it largely didn’t matter. He has normalized after that explosion, but if he can carry that over into an encore performance or two in this stretch of the season, he will be a major factor for the Hawks.

Onyeka Okongwu – Clint Capela Combo

Much of the offseason discourse about the Hawks concerned the center position. Both Capela and Okongwu are capable players, but there’s a reasonable argument that it would make a lot of sense for Atlanta to move on and start Okongwu full-time. In the absence of that solution, it is best that both players showcase their value to the team. So far, that is what has happened for Atlanta.

Capela’s offense is limited, but he’s converting on the opportunities he does get. On shots that are 0-3 feet from the rim, he’s converting on 71.4% of those attempts. This is after a career-worst 63.6% from that same distance last season. He’s much more in line with his career averages and it gives him utility as a play finisher for the Hawks. With their rotation so banged up right now, Atlanta is short on reliable options and Capela fits that bill. His rebounding numbers are not as impressive as in prior seasons, but he is still a force on the boards.

Okongwu has improved as a passer, recording a career-high 12.2% assist percentage to start the season thus far. He has also shown up against tough opponents, recording 18 points and 10 rebounds against the Celtics largely as an interior scorer. His three-point shot is still developing, but most of those attempts are tough attempts from the corner. Furthermore, he is shooting a career-best 84% from the charity strip on a career-high number of attempts per night (5.7). He also seems to be drawing fouls at a higher rate when he is on offense, which indicates a heightened level of aggression as a scorer. That’s to say nothing of his versatility on defense as an athletic option to guard on the perimeter and down low in the post.

I think the centers have both largely filled useful roles for the Hawks and they can counter quite a bit of what they might see. Okongwu should take on a larger role against Boston and Chicago to match up with their shooting while Capela will feast against teams like the Wizards, who have non-shooters at their center spot.