Cochise, Santa Cruz and Yuma counties served as the front line of Biden and Harris’ border policies, and they didn’t like what they saw.

As Arizona political junkies feverishly refresh their screens for the remaining votes to be counted, the early numbers reveal one reason Donald Trump is poised to win the state he lost four years ago.

Call it the revenge of the border counties.

Based on the count so far, Pima County didn’t change its voting pattern. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump by 18 percentage points, and Kamala Harris appears to have maintained that lead with a 17 percent advantage as of Thursday morning.

Most of Pima County’s border with Mexico is part of the sparsely populated Tohono O’odham Nation. The vast majority of residents live well to the north, in and around Tucson.

The story is much different in the three remaining border counties.

Trump gained, even in blue-leaning counties

Trump defeated Biden in Cochise County, located in the southeast corner of the state.

In 2020, the Republican received 58% of the vote, compared to the Democrat’s 39%. Despite Cochise County’s previous red leanings, Trump vastly improved his performance in 2024.

So far, Trump holds a massive 68%-31% lead over Harris.

Santa Cruz, with its county seat in Nogales, is a reliable Democratic stronghold. In 2020, Biden received a whopping 67% of the vote, with Trump garnering just 32%.

This year brought a big change. Trump gained eight percentage points, with the vote total on Thursday standing at Harris 59%, Trump 40%. This is significant for a county in which 82% of residents are Latino.

That leaves the last border county, Yuma, in Arizona’s southwest corner. In the previous presidential election, Trump bested Biden 52% to 46%. This time, Trump had 65% on Thursday, compared to Harris’ 35%.

Biden-Harris’ border policies are likely to blame

What could account for the 10-point shift to Trump in Cochise County? The eight-point GOP gain in Santa Cruz? And finally, the 13-point red wave in Yuma County?

Each served as the front line of Biden and Harris’ disastrous border policies.

While politicians bickered in Washington, undocumented migrants passed through these desert regions, disrupting the small communities and taxing their limited public services.

Opinion: Don’t complain, Latinos, when Trump comes for you

The numbers of migrants are truly staggering.

U.S. Customs and Border Patrol has divided our southern border into several sections, two of which cover Arizona. The Tucson Sector accounts for the border from the New Mexico state line to Yuma County.

The Yuma Sector handles the 126 miles from the Pima county line to the Imperial Sand Dunes in California. The California portion of this sector has been fenced since the 1990s, dramatically reducing the encounters along their area.

Arizona border counties roared at the polls

Adding up the border crossings from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2024 demonstrates the Biden-Harris administration’s failure to provide basic security.

The Tucson Sector had 1,280,408 encounters. The Yuma Sector had 652,660 encounters.

Over Biden and Harris’ single term, Arizona’s four border counties had more than 1.9 million undocumented migrants pass through. When residents complained, the national media shrugged it off, often blaming racism, despite the high numbers of Latinos living there.

Of course, when a small number of migrants were flown to the elite enclave of Martha’s Vineyard, the Massachusetts National Guard had them bused out within hours. The wealthy playground couldn’t tolerate the crushing influx of 50 uninvited guests.

That’s for struggling border towns like Douglas, Nogales or Yuma to handle.

America has long welcomed immigrants, a fact demonstrated by our liberal naturalization laws. We want people to become citizens. But the unregulated entry of 1.9 million people into a single state alarms Americans of all backgrounds.

Tired of being ignored for years, Arizona’s border counties finally made their voices heard.

This time at the ballot box.

Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. On X, formerly Twitter: @exjon.